Public Policy Polling (PPP) released a poll [pdf] today of 632 Missouri voters taken from September 9th through the 12th. The margin of error is 3.9%. This being crazy times, the race is close. Then again, it is a long time to November 2012.

…PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates…

More on that later.

Some of the top line results:

43% approve of McCaskill’s work in Washington, down from 46% four months ago. The same 47% disapprove. Among the 87 senators on which PPP has polled, only one of the 23 Democrats on the ballot next year has a worse standing-Nebraska’s Ben Nelson.

But for now at least, McCaskill leads three Republicans running to replace her. She tops former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, 43-42, down from 45-42 in the previous poll. McCaskill also edges Rep. Todd Akin, 45-43, versus 46-45 in May. And she leads businessman John Brunner, 46-37, up from 47-41.

This is an interesting aspect of the sample:

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain…………………………………………… 48%

Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%

Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

This is what actually happened in 2008:

Official Election Returns

State of Missouri General Election  – 2008 General Election

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

As announced by the Board of State Canvassers

on Tuesday, December 02, 2008

U.S. President And Vice President   Precincts Reporting 3532 of 3532

  John McCain, Sarah Palin REP 1,445,814 49.4%

  Barack Obama, Joe Biden DEM 1,441,911 49.3%

  Bob Barr, Wayne A. Root LIB 11,386 .4%

  Chuck Baldwin, Darrell Castle CST 8,201 .3%

  Ralph Nader, Matt Gonzalez IND 17,813 .6%

  Cynthia McKinney, Rosa Clemente WI 80 .0%

Total Votes   2,925,205

[emphasis added]

This could mean that Democratic voters have left the state, that republican voter suppression efforts are taking a toll, that Democratic voters don’t answer the phone, that Democratic voters by a larger margin forgot who the voted for, or all of the above and maybe more. Or, maybe, there’s a slight republican bias to the poll.

There are some interesting crosstabulations:

McCaskill Approval

Very liberal

Approve 84%

Disapprove 10%

Not sure 6%

Somewhat liberal

Approve 74%

Disapprove 16%

Not sure 10%

Moderate

Approve 61%

Disapprove 28%

Not sure 11%

Somewhat conservative

Approve 22%

Disapprove 66%

Not sure 13%

Very conservative

Approve 9%

Disapprove 84%

Not sure 7%

Those very conservative voters don’t like Claire McCaskill at all. Anyone think they’ll vote for her?:

McCaskill/Akin

Very liberal

Claire McCaskill 89%

Todd Akin 2%

Undecided 9%

Somewhat liberal

Claire McCaskill 79%

Todd Akin 16%

Undecided 5%

Moderate

Claire McCaskill 67%

Todd Akin 19%

Undecided 14%

Somewhat conservative

Claire McCaskill 21%

Todd Akin 64%

Undecided 15%

Very conservative

Claire McCaskill 8%

Todd Akin 82%

Undecided 10%

Nope, those very conservative voters ain’t gonna vote for Claire. But, what’s this? 16% of “somewhat liberal” voters say they’re going to vote for Rep. Todd Aiken (r), arguably the most rabid right wingnut in the Missouri congressional delegation? That’s crazy talk. This is either a bad sample, or Claire has pissed of a significant portion of the base. Any guesses?

By the way, neither Sarah Steelman (r) nor John Brunner (r) do as well with “somewhat liberal” voters as Todd Aiken (r).

There is a gender gap in Claire McCaskill’s (D) approval:

McCaskill Approval

Woman

Approve 46%

Disapprove 39%

Not sure 15%

Man

Approve 40%

Disapprove 55%

Not sure 5%

Uh, the men have made up their minds it would seem. Women could make a significant difference in this election.

“….Claire McCaskill continues to look extremely vulnerable for reelection,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it bodes well for her that even at a low time for her party she’s running slightly ahead of her opposition. She might be able to hang on if Democrats see any improvement in their position over the next year….”

Word.

It’s about jobs. I wonder why no one thought of that before. Oh, right. They did.

Representative Vicky Hartzler via Twitter yesterday:

@DoDBuzz dodbuzz by RepHartzler

House lawmakers appeal to Obama to stop defense cuts – bit.ly/rfJl7a 21 Jul

And today:

@RepHartzler Rep. Vicky Hartzler

Are voting on Legislative branch approps bill. Am voting to reduce our office budget by 7%. We all must do w/ less to balance our budget! 5 hours ago

[emphasis added]

Cognitive dissonance in everything.

It gets even better. A few minutes ago:

@RepHartzler Rep. Vicky Hartzler

New CNN poll shows 66% of Americans support passage of Cut, Cap, & Balance yet today the Senate tabled it! Unbelievable! Call them! 10 minutes ago

Really?:

CNN/ORC [pdf]

Interviews with 1,009 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on July 18-20, 2011. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or

minus 3 percentage points.

The sample includes 856 interviews among landline respondents and 153 interviews among cell phone respondents.

14. In those discussions, several budget plans have been proposed that would reduce the amount the government owes by trillions of dollars over the next ten years. If you had to choose, would you rather see Congress and President Obama agree to a budget plan that only includes cuts in government spending, or a budget plan that includes a combination of spending cuts and tax

increases on higher-income Americans and some businesses?

Only spending cuts 34%

Spending cuts and tax increases 64%

Other (vol.) 1%

No opinion 1%

18. Based on what you have read or heard about the discussions between Congress and Barack Obama on the debt ceiling, do you think Obama has or has not acted responsibly?

Yes, has acted responsibly 52%

No, has not 46%

No opinion 2%

19. Based on what you have read or heard about the discussions between Congress and Barack Obama on the debt ceiling, do you think the Republicans in Congress have or have not acted responsibly?

Yes, have acted responsibly 33%

No, have not 63%

No opinion 3%

[emphasis added]

That ain’t exactly a vote of confidence in Vicky Hartzler’s position, eh?

Then, on the proposals:

21. In some proposals, Congress would raise the debt ceiling while cutting between two trillion and four trillion dollars in government spending over the next ten years and raising taxes on some businesses and higher-income Americans. Would you favor or oppose this proposal?

Favor 66%

Oppose 34%

No opinion 1%

23. In another proposal, Congress would raise the debt ceiling only if a balanced budget amendment

were passed by both houses of Congress and substantial spending cuts and caps on future spending were approved. Would you favor or oppose this proposal?

Favor 66%

Oppose 33%

No opinion 1%

[emphasis added]

The devil is in the details on the second one. Some of the details which won’t make the republican gimmick proposal work:

24. Now I’m going to read you some of the specific proposals for cutting government spending and increasing taxes that have been suggested as part of the discussions on the debt ceiling. For each one, please tell me whether you favor or oppose that proposal as a way to reduce the amount that the government owes.

Cutting federal subsidies to farmers

Favor 31% Oppose 66% No opinion 2%

Cutting pensions and benefits for retired government workers

Favor 30% Oppose 68% No opinion 2%

Cutting defense spending

Favor 47% Oppose 52% No opinion 1%

Cutting the amount the government spends on Medicaid, the federal health program for the poor

Favor 22% Oppose 77%

Cutting the amount the government spends on Medicare, the federal health program for the elderly

Favor 12% Oppose 87% No opinion 1%

Cutting the amount the government spends on Social Security

Favor 16% Oppose 84% No opinion 1%

Increasing the taxes paid by oil and gas companies by ending federal subsidies for those businesses

Favor 73% Oppose 26% No opinion 1%

Increasing the taxes paid by businesses that own private jets

Favor 76% Oppose 23%

Increasing the taxes paid by people who make more than 250 thousand dollars a year

Favor 73% Oppose26%

Those polled want all of the things the republican obstructionists in Congress don’t.

Representative Vicky Hartzler (r) evidently didn’t read the fine print.

Public Policy Polling released a poll of the 2012 Missouri Senate race today, interviewing “515 Missouri voters from November 29th to December 1st.” The margin of error is 4.3%.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Missouri Senate Race Close

Claire McCaskill was involved in incredibly close races for Governor in 2004 and Senator in 2006 from Missouri and it looks like she’s in for another one as she seeks reelection to the Senate in 2012. McCaskill leads Sarah Steelman by 1 point (45-44) in a hypothetical match up and trails Jim Talent and Peter Kinder each by 2 points in them (47-45 and 46-44 respectively,) all results well within the poll’s margin of error….

Peter Kinder? It must be Twitter volume.

Early Look at Missouri Senate Shows Close Race [pdf]

“….Claire McCaskill’s accustomed to fighting close races and she may have to do it again,”said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Missouri’s lopsided contest this year is likely to be a blip on the radar of the state’s overall trend toward close races….”

That is until all of the republican corporate surrogates start dumping their advertising dollars into the state.

Interesting crosstabulation:

Ideology – Obama Approval

Base [all]

Approve – 43%

Disapprove – 52%

Not sure – 5%

Liberal

Approve – 85%

Disapprove – 11%

Not sure – 4%

Moderate

Approve – 61%

Disapprove – 32%

Not sure – 8%

Conservative

Approve – 12%

Disapprove – 85%

Not sure – 2%

Ideology – McCaskill Approval

Base [all]

Approve – 43%

Disapprove – 44%

Not sure – 13%

Liberal

Approve – 80%

Disapprove – 13%

Not sure – 7%

Moderate

Approve – 58%

Disapprove – 26%

Not sure – 16%

Conservative

Approve – 16%

Disapprove – 70%

Not sure – 14%

So Claire McCaskill (D) has the same overall approval numbers as President Obama, but she slips among self identified liberals and moderates when compared to the president. She only has 4% approval over the president among self identified conservatives. True, she has significantly more undecideds in that group.

Ultimately, after the attack ad blitzes for the 2012 election the republican conservative base will come home.

Claire McCaskill (D) will need to decide if it’s a vain quest to keep tacking right and alienate more of the Democratic Party base in the hope that conservatives won’t follow their natural inclinations.

She might want to ask Robin Carnahan (D) how that worked out.  

NEWSWEEK Poll: Obama Approval Rating Jumps, Democrats Close ‘Enthusiasm Gap’

As the president’s numbers climb sharply, results suggest that Democrats may be succeeding in firing up their base.

Despite doom-saying about Democrats’ chances in the midterms, the latest NEWSWEEK Poll…shows that they remain in a close race with Republicans 12 days before Election Day, while the president’s approval ratings have climbed sharply…

Some of the numbers:

Newsweek Poll [pdf]

Princeton Survey Research Associates International

Final Topline Results

(10/22/10)

N = 1,005 adults 18+ (672 landline interviews and 333 cell phone interviews)

Margins of error: plus or minus 3.8

Interviewing dates: 10/20-21/10

….6. We’d like your opinion of the job performance of some political officeholders. First, what about Barack Obama? Do you approve or disapprove of the way he is handling his job as president?….

Approve – 54%

Disapprove – 40%

Don’t Know – 6%

Very interesting.

This evening KY3/MSU released a poll of 785 people taken statewide. The online report did not indicate the date(s) of the interviews, the margin of error for the full sample, or the voter screen. The results were weighted. The results do indicated the margin of error for the three congressional race subsamples.

The poll shows that Robin Carnahan (D) and Roy Blunt (r-lobbyists) are tied:

…If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate from Missouri were held today, would you vote for Robin Carnahan, the Democrat, or Roy Blunt, the Republican?

Robin Carnahan – 48.4%

Roy Blunt – 48.8%

Other – 2.8%

The formula to calculate the margin of error (95% confidence level) is 1.96 x the square root of the multiplied percentages of each candidate which has been divided by the total sample.

1.96 x square root ((Carnahan x Blunt)/785)

For our purposes here we’ll call ’em even at 50% each. That’s a 3.5% margin of error (3.497%, if you don’t want to round to one decimal place).

A commenter responding to questions about the poll added the following:

….Margin of error is +/-3.5 and although there were more female respondents, the data was weighted appropriately to compensate.

[….]

Since the poll was conducted with Random Digit Dialing. Since most younger people use only cell phones (cell numbers are not included in this type of poll) there are more older respondents. Again, though, the data is weighted to compensate. The poll results gained from this sample can be generalized to the larger state population with a 95% confidence level….

It’d be nice to know the interview screen – adult, registered voter, or likely voter – and the period of time in which the interviews took place.

On June 30th Rasmussen released the results of a poll of 500 “likely voters” in Missouri taken on June 28th. The margin of error is 4.5%:

3* 2010 Missouri Senate Race

Roy Blunt (R) – 48%

Robin Carnahan (D) – 43%

Some other candidate – 3%

Not sure – 6%

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight on Rasmussen:

….Right now, we are identifying about a 4.5-point Republican-leaning house effect in Rasmussen’s polls, relative to a robust average, weighted based on pollster quality….

….We are using the new version of the pollster ratings for this update, by the way, which still rates Rasmussen as a somewhat above-average pollster. The problem is not necessarily that Rasmussen is bad but rather that they’re so dominant; something like 40 percent of our state-level polls were put out by Rasmussen, and they are just about the only pollster at all in some states. A guiding principal of our house effects adjustment is that nobody should be advantaged (or disadvantaged) simply because they poll more often, so it effectively mitigates the impact of Rasmussen flooding the zone, as it would for any other pollster which did something similar. With that said, Rasmussen certainly could be right, so it’s useful to check sometimes on what what the overall Senate picture would look like through their lens….

There are some interesting results for other questions in the poll:

5* A proposal has been made to repeal the health care bill and stop it from going into effect. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose a proposal to repeal the health care bill?

48% Strongly favor

13% Somewhat favor

 7% Somewhat oppose

28% Strongly oppose

 4% Not sure

They should have asked their respondents about keeping government out of Medicare.

8* Suppose the new Arizona immigration law was being considered for your state. Would you favor or oppose passage of that law in your state?

56% Favor

29% Oppose

15% Not sure

I wonder what their opinion would be about law enforcement asking them for their papers?

11* Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party Movement?  

22% Yes

54% No

24% Not sure

24% are not sure? Maybe if they had used the term teabagger there might have been a little less confusion.

Gallup has a bit more on the teabagger/republican hybrid:

July 2, 2010

Tea Party Supporters Overlap Republican Base

Eight out of 10 Tea Party supporters are Republicans

….While Tea Party supporters are not universal in their backing of Republican candidates, they skew heavily in that direction. About 80% of Tea Party supporters say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their district, slightly lower than the projected 95% Republican vote among conservative Republicans.

This suggests that the potential impact of the Tea Party on Republican chances of winning in congressional and senatorial races this fall — even if supporters turn out in record numbers — may be slightly less than would be expected….

[emphasis added]

Ah, it’s just a bunch of republicans who are pissed off that they’re out of power.

It’d be really interesting to see those Rasmussen crosstabs for Missouri.

The Washington Post and ABC News conducted a poll April 22nd through the 25th of 1001 adults nationwide on the subject of teabagger sheeple. The margin of error was 3%.

Among the results – 2% (yes, that’s two percent) of all adults consider themselves “active participants” as teabaggers.

And that two percent gets lots of media attention (Senator Claire McCaskill’s press conference in Jefferson City on August 27, 2009):

“…there were clearly a lot of people here that were more interested in disrupting and showing their anger than listening or having any kind of discourse…I feel for the people who come that want to listen. They can’t when people start screaming out and, it is bad manners. And by the way, I don’t think it’s particularly persuasive. I don’t think, being the loudest doesn’t make you right. And it generally doesn’t work very well in terms of convincing other people….”

“…being the loudest doesn’t make you right…” Tell that to the Faux News Channel.

7% of teabaggers and 61% of their opponents think the teabaggers are motivated by “racial prejudice against Obama”.

Duh.

From the poll: “…A majority are not interested in learning more about the movement, and more say they dislike what they hear about the tea party than like it…”

That kind of gives you more faith in the American people, doesn’t it?

Democracy Corps (Carville and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner) released an 800 sample poll of likely voters for the 2010 Missouri U.S. Senate race (complete with analysis, report, and crosstabulations) taken from April 28 – 30, 2009. The poll was released on May 14th and has a margin of error of 3.5%.

The poll tested Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) against two possible republican opponents, Congressman Roy Blunt (r – lobbyists) and former Missouri State Treasurer Sarah Steelman (r).

…Q.18 And thinking about the November 2010 election for U.S. Senate, if the general election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Roy Blunt, for whom would you vote — Democrat Robin Carnahan or Republican Roy Blunt?

Robin Carnahan – 51%

Lean Robin Carnahan – 1%

Roy Blunt – 43%

Lean Roy – 15%

(Undecided) – 3%

(Refused) – 0%

Total Robin Carnahan – 53%

Total Roy Blunt – 44%

…Q.22 And thinking about the November 2010 election for U.S. Senate, if the general election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Sarah Steelman, for whom would you vote — Democrat Robin Carnahan or Republican Sarah Steelman?

Robin Carnahan – 52%

Lean Robin Carnahan – 2%

Sarah Steelman – 39%

Lean Sarah Steelman – 2%

(Undecided) – 3%

(Refused) – 1%

Total Robin Carnahan 54%

Total Sarah Steelman 42%

After saying nice and nasty things about each of the candidates, they ask the head to head questions again after the set of messages. The final results (after the nasty things):

…Q.42 Now, let me ask you one last time. If the November 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Roy Blunt, for whom would you vote — Democrat Robin Carnahan or Republican Roy Blunt?

Robin Carnahan – 51%

Lean Robin Carnahan – 1%

Roy Blunt – 44%

Lean Roy Blunt – 1%

(Undecided) – 3%

(Refused) – 0%

Total Robin Carnahan – 52%

Total Roy Blunt – 45%

…Q.44 And thinking about the November 2010 election for U.S. Senate, if the general election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Sarah Steelman, for whom would you vote — Democrat Robin Carnahan or Republican Sarah Steelman?

Robin Carnahan – 50%

Lean Robin Carnahan – 1%

Sarah Steelman – 44%

Lean Sarah Steelman – 1%

(Undecided) – 4%

(Refused)- 1%

Total Robin Carnahan – 51%

Total Sarah Steelman – 45%

After all that sturm und drang there isn’t much difference in the results, is there?

If you want to learn more about some of the arcane details of polling, take a look at the crosstabulations [pdf] in this poll. You’ll be able to spend hours sifting through the possibilities.

For instance, in the final head to head between Carnahan and Blunt, Robin Carnahan leads in the St. Louis, Kansas City and “North Central” regions of the state by significant margins. Blunt leads in the “South” by a significant amount. In the final head to head between Carnahan and Steelman, Robin Carnahan leads in St. Louis and Kansas City. Steelman leads in the “North Central” and “South” regions.

Polls ask “right direction/wrong track” questions to gauge voter sentiment (If it’s really bad, it’s akin to “throw the bums out”):

…Q.6 Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Right direction – 40%

Wrong track – 51%

(Don’t know/Refused)- 8%

Right – Wrong – [negative] -11%

Q.7 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Missouri are going in the right direction, or

do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Right direction – 51%

Wrong track – 35%

(Don’t know/Refused) 14

Right – Wrong – 16

In this instance the crosstabulations are fascinating. People who think things are going in the “right direction” at the national level (or possibly, better?) overwhelmingly support Robin Carnahan over Roy Blunt or Sarah Steelman. Those who think things are on the “wrong track” support the republicans over Robin Carnahan, still by a very large margin, but not as much. There is a similar tendency in the state “right direction/wrong track” numbers, but the margins are not as glaring as the national numbers.

This poll is very good news for Robin Carnahan’s campaign to become Missouri’s next United States Senator.

Robin Carnahan’s numbers are good and the republicans are going to try and bring those down. It’s in their nature. Brace yourself for those nasty republican television and radio ads. It’s going to be another interesting and eventful election cycle.  

From a Rasmussen poll of 1000 republican likely voters taken on November 5, 2008 – the margin of error was 3%:

…I know it’s a long way off, but if you had your choice for the next Republican nominee for President would you choose Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty or Charlie Crist?

64% Palin

11% Romney

12% Huckabee

4% Jindal

1% Pawlenty

2% Crist

6% Not sure

[emphasis added]

And under “what color is the sky in your world?”:

…Thinking back on the Presidential Campaign did Sarah Palin help or hurt John McCain’s chance of winning the election?

69% Help

20% Hurt

6% She had no impact

5% Not sure

[emphasis added]

The margin of delusion was close to 70%.

Exit Polls: Palin Hurt Ticket with Large Number of Voters [Jonathan Turley]

…Over sixty percent of voters said that she was manifestly unqualified – that obviously includes many Republicans. Other polls have shown Palin was the most cited reason for voting against McCain by voters. While she clearly did bring out the hardcore faithful, she also clearly scared off the independents and moderates are that were essential for a win…

Let this all be a lesson to you. Even with one of the worst vice presidential picks, the most poorly run campaign in the history of the republic, and an economy and government near collapse due to republican incompetence – over 57,000,000 people (about 46% of the electorate) voted for the republican ticket. One in five people you pass on the street (out of a total population of 305,000,000) voted for the ticket.

We should have won by thirty points.

You all better start preparing for the mid-term elections now. There’s a lot of work to be done.

Reuters/Zogby

…The surveys were conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2. Sample sizes in each state ranged from 600-605, with a margin of error of +/-4.1%….

…Missouri – Nov. 2

Obama 47.4%

McCain 45.7%

Other/Not Sure 6.9%

…McCain gained a bit among Independents, but still trails with them, 57%-28%.  He also cut Obama’s lead among Hispanics in half to eight points. Obama’s has reduced his losses among Democrats to 10% from 16% a week ago….