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Democracy Corps (Carville and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner) released an 800 sample poll of likely voters for the 2010 Missouri U.S. Senate race (complete with analysis, report, and crosstabulations) taken from April 28 – 30, 2009. The poll was released on May 14th and has a margin of error of 3.5%.

The poll tested Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) against two possible republican opponents, Congressman Roy Blunt (r – lobbyists) and former Missouri State Treasurer Sarah Steelman (r).

…Q.18 And thinking about the November 2010 election for U.S. Senate, if the general election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Roy Blunt, for whom would you vote — Democrat Robin Carnahan or Republican Roy Blunt?

Robin Carnahan – 51%

Lean Robin Carnahan – 1%

Roy Blunt – 43%

Lean Roy – 15%

(Undecided) – 3%

(Refused) – 0%

Total Robin Carnahan – 53%

Total Roy Blunt – 44%

…Q.22 And thinking about the November 2010 election for U.S. Senate, if the general election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Sarah Steelman, for whom would you vote — Democrat Robin Carnahan or Republican Sarah Steelman?

Robin Carnahan – 52%

Lean Robin Carnahan – 2%

Sarah Steelman – 39%

Lean Sarah Steelman – 2%

(Undecided) – 3%

(Refused) – 1%

Total Robin Carnahan 54%

Total Sarah Steelman 42%

After saying nice and nasty things about each of the candidates, they ask the head to head questions again after the set of messages. The final results (after the nasty things):

…Q.42 Now, let me ask you one last time. If the November 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Roy Blunt, for whom would you vote — Democrat Robin Carnahan or Republican Roy Blunt?

Robin Carnahan – 51%

Lean Robin Carnahan – 1%

Roy Blunt – 44%

Lean Roy Blunt – 1%

(Undecided) – 3%

(Refused) – 0%

Total Robin Carnahan – 52%

Total Roy Blunt – 45%

…Q.44 And thinking about the November 2010 election for U.S. Senate, if the general election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Sarah Steelman, for whom would you vote — Democrat Robin Carnahan or Republican Sarah Steelman?

Robin Carnahan – 50%

Lean Robin Carnahan – 1%

Sarah Steelman – 44%

Lean Sarah Steelman – 1%

(Undecided) – 4%

(Refused)- 1%

Total Robin Carnahan – 51%

Total Sarah Steelman – 45%

After all that sturm und drang there isn’t much difference in the results, is there?

If you want to learn more about some of the arcane details of polling, take a look at the crosstabulations [pdf] in this poll. You’ll be able to spend hours sifting through the possibilities.

For instance, in the final head to head between Carnahan and Blunt, Robin Carnahan leads in the St. Louis, Kansas City and “North Central” regions of the state by significant margins. Blunt leads in the “South” by a significant amount. In the final head to head between Carnahan and Steelman, Robin Carnahan leads in St. Louis and Kansas City. Steelman leads in the “North Central” and “South” regions.

Polls ask “right direction/wrong track” questions to gauge voter sentiment (If it’s really bad, it’s akin to “throw the bums out”):

…Q.6 Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Right direction – 40%

Wrong track – 51%

(Don’t know/Refused)- 8%

Right – Wrong – [negative] -11%

Q.7 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Missouri are going in the right direction, or

do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Right direction – 51%

Wrong track – 35%

(Don’t know/Refused) 14

Right – Wrong – 16

In this instance the crosstabulations are fascinating. People who think things are going in the “right direction” at the national level (or possibly, better?) overwhelmingly support Robin Carnahan over Roy Blunt or Sarah Steelman. Those who think things are on the “wrong track” support the republicans over Robin Carnahan, still by a very large margin, but not as much. There is a similar tendency in the state “right direction/wrong track” numbers, but the margins are not as glaring as the national numbers.

This poll is very good news for Robin Carnahan’s campaign to become Missouri’s next United States Senator.

Robin Carnahan’s numbers are good and the republicans are going to try and bring those down. It’s in their nature. Brace yourself for those nasty republican television and radio ads. It’s going to be another interesting and eventful election cycle.