Via a Twitter post from our friends at Fired Up!:

NPR’s “Political Junkie” blog lists Bond’s senate seat as an “expected GOP loss” in 2010: http://bit.ly/bjlgw 16 minutes ago from TweetDeck

It’s this comment on the NPR post  “Earlybird Ratings Of 2010 Senate Races” (in itself, innocuous enough) which is so telling:

Putting Missouri in the W column for Dems is silly. I live in the state. Carnahan is out-polling any Republican right now on pure name recognition. I can tell you this. Dissatisfaction with Obama’s policies are growing in Missouri with every passing week. By next fall, any politician running for statewide office who’s associated with Obama and his radical economic policies is going to feel the wrath of Missouri voters.

Conservative grassroots are up for a knock-down, drag out fight in 2010.

Also keep in mind Obama lost Missouri in 2008. Does anyone really think his popularity is going to increase from his blank slate, MSM lovefest, POTUS run in 2008?

Uh, yes the republicans will have all the money they need. And the lobbyists, too. True, Obama didn’t win the state, but then again, John McCain barely did and it took a while to figure that out.

And the polling? Well, that would be a foal of a different color:

A Carnahan Advantage in Missouri Senate Race

The closest state during the 2008 presidential election, Missouri shows early signs of opportunity for Democrats to pick up the senate seat currently held by Republican Kit Bond. A new Democracy Corps survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research shows Secretary of State Robin Carnahan leading Republican Congressman Roy Blunt 53 to 44 percent and leading former Treasurer Sarah Steelman 54 to 42 percent.

At this early and uncertain stage, Carnahan starts off the contest with a strong personal and professional standing that puts her in a position to defeat either potential opponent. At the same time, it appears as if Steelman may be the tougher foe with a stronger profile than Blunt and the potential to run a fresh outsider candidacy that Blunt cannot offer.

President Obama provides a slight boost to Carnahan, even in a state he failed to carry, with a 56 percent job approval rating (compared to 58 percent nationally) and voters preferring, by a 49 to 40 percent margin, a senator who will mostly support Obama’s agenda to get things done rather than one who will mostly oppose his agenda to provide balance.

This report is based a Democracy Corps survey of 800 likely voters in Missouri conducted April 28 – 30, 2009. The survey is subject to a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

[emphasis added]

We’ve covered this particular poll before: Democracy Corps Poll – Missouri Senate 2010: Robin Carnahan (D) v. the republicans

Or, how about this SurveyUSA poll from April 2009?:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

All

57% – approve

40% – disapprove

3% – not sure

“…Dissatisfaction with Obama’s policies are growing in Missouri with every passing week….”

Okay. What color is the sky in their world? Ah yes, if republican wishes were reality there would be a bronze statue of George W. Bush on every street corner in Iraq.

Democracy Corps (Carville and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner) released an 800 sample poll of likely voters for the 2010 Missouri U.S. Senate race (complete with analysis, report, and crosstabulations) taken from April 28 – 30, 2009. The poll was released on May 14th and has a margin of error of 3.5%.

The poll tested Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) against two possible republican opponents, Congressman Roy Blunt (r – lobbyists) and former Missouri State Treasurer Sarah Steelman (r).

…Q.18 And thinking about the November 2010 election for U.S. Senate, if the general election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Roy Blunt, for whom would you vote — Democrat Robin Carnahan or Republican Roy Blunt?

Robin Carnahan – 51%

Lean Robin Carnahan – 1%

Roy Blunt – 43%

Lean Roy – 15%

(Undecided) – 3%

(Refused) – 0%

Total Robin Carnahan – 53%

Total Roy Blunt – 44%

…Q.22 And thinking about the November 2010 election for U.S. Senate, if the general election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Sarah Steelman, for whom would you vote — Democrat Robin Carnahan or Republican Sarah Steelman?

Robin Carnahan – 52%

Lean Robin Carnahan – 2%

Sarah Steelman – 39%

Lean Sarah Steelman – 2%

(Undecided) – 3%

(Refused) – 1%

Total Robin Carnahan 54%

Total Sarah Steelman 42%

After saying nice and nasty things about each of the candidates, they ask the head to head questions again after the set of messages. The final results (after the nasty things):

…Q.42 Now, let me ask you one last time. If the November 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Roy Blunt, for whom would you vote — Democrat Robin Carnahan or Republican Roy Blunt?

Robin Carnahan – 51%

Lean Robin Carnahan – 1%

Roy Blunt – 44%

Lean Roy Blunt – 1%

(Undecided) – 3%

(Refused) – 0%

Total Robin Carnahan – 52%

Total Roy Blunt – 45%

…Q.44 And thinking about the November 2010 election for U.S. Senate, if the general election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Sarah Steelman, for whom would you vote — Democrat Robin Carnahan or Republican Sarah Steelman?

Robin Carnahan – 50%

Lean Robin Carnahan – 1%

Sarah Steelman – 44%

Lean Sarah Steelman – 1%

(Undecided) – 4%

(Refused)- 1%

Total Robin Carnahan – 51%

Total Sarah Steelman – 45%

After all that sturm und drang there isn’t much difference in the results, is there?

If you want to learn more about some of the arcane details of polling, take a look at the crosstabulations [pdf] in this poll. You’ll be able to spend hours sifting through the possibilities.

For instance, in the final head to head between Carnahan and Blunt, Robin Carnahan leads in the St. Louis, Kansas City and “North Central” regions of the state by significant margins. Blunt leads in the “South” by a significant amount. In the final head to head between Carnahan and Steelman, Robin Carnahan leads in St. Louis and Kansas City. Steelman leads in the “North Central” and “South” regions.

Polls ask “right direction/wrong track” questions to gauge voter sentiment (If it’s really bad, it’s akin to “throw the bums out”):

…Q.6 Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Right direction – 40%

Wrong track – 51%

(Don’t know/Refused)- 8%

Right – Wrong – [negative] -11%

Q.7 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Missouri are going in the right direction, or

do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Right direction – 51%

Wrong track – 35%

(Don’t know/Refused) 14

Right – Wrong – 16

In this instance the crosstabulations are fascinating. People who think things are going in the “right direction” at the national level (or possibly, better?) overwhelmingly support Robin Carnahan over Roy Blunt or Sarah Steelman. Those who think things are on the “wrong track” support the republicans over Robin Carnahan, still by a very large margin, but not as much. There is a similar tendency in the state “right direction/wrong track” numbers, but the margins are not as glaring as the national numbers.

This poll is very good news for Robin Carnahan’s campaign to become Missouri’s next United States Senator.

Robin Carnahan’s numbers are good and the republicans are going to try and bring those down. It’s in their nature. Brace yourself for those nasty republican television and radio ads. It’s going to be another interesting and eventful election cycle.