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Public Policy Polling released a poll of the 2012 Missouri Senate race today, interviewing “515 Missouri voters from November 29th to December 1st.” The margin of error is 4.3%.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Missouri Senate Race Close

Claire McCaskill was involved in incredibly close races for Governor in 2004 and Senator in 2006 from Missouri and it looks like she’s in for another one as she seeks reelection to the Senate in 2012. McCaskill leads Sarah Steelman by 1 point (45-44) in a hypothetical match up and trails Jim Talent and Peter Kinder each by 2 points in them (47-45 and 46-44 respectively,) all results well within the poll’s margin of error….

Peter Kinder? It must be Twitter volume.

Early Look at Missouri Senate Shows Close Race [pdf]

“….Claire McCaskill’s accustomed to fighting close races and she may have to do it again,”said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Missouri’s lopsided contest this year is likely to be a blip on the radar of the state’s overall trend toward close races….”

That is until all of the republican corporate surrogates start dumping their advertising dollars into the state.

Interesting crosstabulation:

Ideology – Obama Approval

Base [all]

Approve – 43%

Disapprove – 52%

Not sure – 5%

Liberal

Approve – 85%

Disapprove – 11%

Not sure – 4%

Moderate

Approve – 61%

Disapprove – 32%

Not sure – 8%

Conservative

Approve – 12%

Disapprove – 85%

Not sure – 2%

Ideology – McCaskill Approval

Base [all]

Approve – 43%

Disapprove – 44%

Not sure – 13%

Liberal

Approve – 80%

Disapprove – 13%

Not sure – 7%

Moderate

Approve – 58%

Disapprove – 26%

Not sure – 16%

Conservative

Approve – 16%

Disapprove – 70%

Not sure – 14%

So Claire McCaskill (D) has the same overall approval numbers as President Obama, but she slips among self identified liberals and moderates when compared to the president. She only has 4% approval over the president among self identified conservatives. True, she has significantly more undecideds in that group.

Ultimately, after the attack ad blitzes for the 2012 election the republican conservative base will come home.

Claire McCaskill (D) will need to decide if it’s a vain quest to keep tacking right and alienate more of the Democratic Party base in the hope that conservatives won’t follow their natural inclinations.

She might want to ask Robin Carnahan (D) how that worked out.