Public Policy Polling (PPP) conducted a survey [pdf] of 859 voters (440 Republican voters) in Missouri from August 7th through August 9th. The margin of error was 3.3% (4.7% for the Republican primary voters).

In the 2016 U.S. Senate race:

….Roy Blunt is one of the least popular Senators in the country, with only 30% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 47% who disapprove. Blunt has become increasingly unpopular over the course of hi s first term in the Senate….

….Blunt is quite unpopular with independents (24/52) and Democrats (17/62) but what really makes his numbers soft is that he’s only at 46/28 approval even with Republican voters. Those are the kinds of numbers that usually make you susceptible to a primary challenge.

Blunt leads Democratic challenger Jason Kander 40/35 for reelection with 25% of voters undecided. That high level of indecision may have a lot to do with voters just not being that familiar with Kander at this point-only 35% know enough about him to have formed an opinion either way….

Talk about a possible game changer. Think about what could happen in a presidential election year with a Democratic Party nominee investing in a serious GOTV campaign in Missouri. Yep.

In the gubernatorial race:

….The Governor’s race looks like a sheer toss up at this point. Republican hopeful Peter Kinder leads Democratic candidate Chris Koster 40-37. But Koster has leads of 4-8 points over the rest of GOP field-it’s 39/35 over Bob Dixon, 40/36 over Catherine Hanaway, 40/35 over Randy Asbury, 41/36 over John Brunner, 40/34 over Eric Greitens, and 39/31 over Bart Korman….

If it’s Koster (D) and Kinder (r) in 2016 the difference (now within the margin of error) will be between $4,000,000.00 and $60,000.00. At least for now, until voters start paying attention to the Twitterverse past, hotel bills, and a living wage. Just think about all the possible general election campaign commercials and mailings.

There’s an interesting result from probable 2016 republican gubernatorial primary voters:

[….]

Q8 (Republicans) Given the choices of Randy Asbury, John Brunner, Bob Dixon, Eric

Greitens, Catherine Hanaway, Peter Kinder, and Bart Korman who would you most like to see as the Republican candidate for Governor next year?

5% Randy Asbury

9% John Brunner

7% Bob Dixon

4% Eric Greitens

11% Catherine Hanaway

27% Peter Kinder

0% Bart Korman

37% Not sure

Those candidates who currently have significant campaign assets will be able to spend their primary money on that undecided 37% and in redefining some of Peter Kinder’s (r) advantage in superficial name recognition into liabilities. Again, the campaign commercials could be epic.

Previously:

PPP polling results in Missouri: social media hints (August 11, 2015)

Public Policy Polling (PPP) recently completed a poll in Missouri. There are a few hints of the results coming out this morning via Twitter:

Kevin Robillard ‏@PoliticoKevin

First in Score: @ppppolls has @RoyBlunt 40%, @JasonKander 35% in #MOSen.  7:53 AM – 11 Aug 2015

Jeff Smith ‏@JeffSmithMO

.@ppppolls out with new MO-SEN and MO-GOV #s this am. Very good news for @JasonKander + @PeterKinder; bad news for nearly everyone else.  7:48 AM – 11 Aug 2015

Jeff Smith ‏@JeffSmithMO

.@ppppolls has @JasonKander just 5 pts behind Sen. Roy Blunt, whose fav/unfav is way upside down at 30-47. The head-to-head is 40-35.  7:58 AM – 11 Aug 2015

Well, well.

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Blunt is actually much more unpopular than Portman, Toomey, Ayotte who are all accepted to be vulnerable   7:59 AM – 11 Aug 2015

Well, well.

Kevin Robillard ‏@PoliticoKevin

.@ppppolls survey also has @Koster4Missouri with small leads over a number of Republicans in #MOGov, but knotted with @PeterKinder.  8:15 AM – 11 Aug 2015

Well, well.

We’ll take a look at the PPP release when it comes out.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) released a survey [pdf] taken in Louisiana. From the republican portion of the sample:

[….]

Q2 Who do you think was more responsible for the poor response to Hurricane Katrina: George W. Bush or Barack Obama?

George W. Bush ……………………………………… 28%

Barack Obama………………………………………… 29%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%

[….]

….PPP surveyed 721 Louisiana voters, including an oversample of 274 usual Republican primary voters, between August 16-19, 2013. The margin of error for the overall survey was +/- 3.7% and +/- 5.9% for the GOP portion….

The crosstabs are interesting.

In case you forgot, Hurricane Katrina occurred in August 2005, over three years before Barack Obama took office as President.

It looks like Missouri is gonna create a new standard for the crazification factor.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) released the results [pdf] of their final Missouri election poll today. They interviewed 835 “likely voters” on November 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error is 3.4%.

[….]

Q2 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Claire McCaskill, Republican Todd Akin, and Libertarian Jonathan Dine. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Claire McCaskill – 48%

Todd Akin – 44%

Jonathan Dine – 6%

Undecided – 2%

[….]

There’s this gem:

….[Jay] Nixon continues to be among the more popular Governors in the country with a 51/31 approval spread….

So much for expending political capital.

Via Mother Jones, Public Policy Polling (PPP) did a survey [pdf] of 1,072 likely voters in Ohio September 7th through the 9th, 2012. The margin of error is 3%.

Some evil genius came up with a question for the poll. The crosstabulations are very interesting.

Q15 Who do you think deserves more credit for the killing of Osama bin Laden: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Base [all]

Barack Obama – 63%

Mitt Romney – 6%

Not sure – 31%

Democrat

Barack Obama – 86%

Mitt Romney – 1%

Not sure – 13%

Republican

Barack Obama – 38%

Mitt Romney – 15%

Not sure – 47%

Independent/Other

Barack Obama – 64%

Mitt Romney – 1%

Not sure – 36%

[emphasis added]

That’s interesting. It’s curious that it’s not 27%.

In 2004:

Official Election Returns

State of Missouri Primary Election

Tuesday, August 03, 2004

As announced by the Board of State Canvassers

on Friday, September 03, 2004

Constitutional Amendment 2  

Marriage Definition

Yes 1,055,771 70.6%

No 439,529 29.4%

Total Votes   1,495,300

Remember, it was a primary and turnout was nowhere near that of a general election. It did result in this:

Missouri Constitution

Article I

BILL OF RIGHTS

Section 33

Marriage, validity and recognition.

Section 33. That to be valid and recognized in this state, a marriage shall exist only between a man and a woman.

(Adopted August 3, 2004)

Public Policy Polling (PPP) released additional results [pdf] of a survey of 602 Missouri voters interviewed from May 24th to May 27th. The margin of error for the poll is 4.0%.

Q2 Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal 36%

Illegal 52%

Not sure 12%

Q3 Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry 31%

Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry 32%

There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship 33%

Not sure 4%

Civil unions or same sex marriage are at 63% in the poll.

The next question should have been: “Should the state should dictate any religious denomination’s recognition of marriage between consenting adults?” I bet the results would have been really interesting.

Civil union or marriage, what would be the difference, a choice of words?

Eight years. Think of the possibility of continuing change over the next few years.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) released additional results of a survey of 602 Missouri voters interviewed from May 24th to May 27th. The margin of error for the poll is 4.0%.

The presidential race is close. Anyone think that Jasper County will make the difference?

Missouri a toss up for President

Voters in Missouri are not real happy with their choices for President. They don’t like Barack Obama. But they don’t, as evidenced by the Republican primary results in the state, like Mitt Romney either. That has the state looking closely contested again for this fall just as it was in 2008….

The numbers [pdf]:

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama 45%

Mitt Romney 44%

Undecided 11%

And then there’s this:

….Blunt is one of the most unpopular Senators in the country with only 32% of voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove. Missouri is the only state in our polling where both Senators have a net approval of -10 or worse….

That must be some teabagger buyer’s remorse.

Previously: PPP: Claire McCaskill, not particularly liked (February 1, 2012)

But, then, neither are the republican candidates – when people even know who they are…

Public Policy Polling [pdf] conducted a surveyed of 602 Missouri voters between May 24th and 27th. The margin of error 4.0%:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?

Approve 40%

Disapprove 50%

Not sure 10%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Todd Akin?

Favorable 21%

Unfavorable 21%

Not sure 57%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Brunner?

Favorable 20%

Unfavorable 23%

Not sure 58%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Steelman?

Favorable 30%

Unfavorable 26%

Not sure 45%

Karl Rove’s minions spent all that money and no one knows who their candidate is.

There’s an interesting crosstab:

McCaskill Approval

Approve 40%

Disapprove 50%

Not sure 10%

Democrat

Approve 74%

Disapprove 13%

Not sure 12%

Republican

Approve 9%

Disapprove 83%

Not sure 9%

Independent/Other

Approve 35%

Disapprove 57%

Not sure 7%

[emphasis added]

Interesting. One quarter of self described Democrats are not in the approval column.

Toss Up in Missouri

….There’s no more clarity for the general election than there is for the primary. Claire McCaskill is basically tied with all three of her competitors, leading Brunner 46-44, dead even with Steelman at 44, and down 45-44 to Akin. Little has changed since our last poll when all three match ups came down at 43-43….

So much for being in the center.

Previously:

Funding contraception and freedom of conscience: Another manufactured controversy (February 8, 2012)

A win for women, and for Obama (February 10, 2012)

Shell game (February 10, 2012)

It’s all in the timing – a bill by Senator Scott Rupp (r) was introduced on Tuesday, February 7th:

SJR 49 Prohibits laws interfering with religious beliefs

Sponsor: Rupp

LR Number: 5676S.02I Fiscal Note not available

Committee: General Laws

Last Action: 2/9/2012 – Second Read and Referred S General Laws Committee Journal Page: S236

Title: Calendar Position:

Effective Date: Upon voter approval

Current Bill Summary

SJR 49 – Upon voter approval, this constitutional amendment provides that no law, regulation or rule shall compel, directly or indirectly, any person, employer, health care provider, or entity to provide coverage for any of the following medical services, if such medical services are contrary to the moral, ethical or religious beliefs or tenets of such person, employer, health care provider, or entity:

(1) Abortion;

(2) Contraceptives, including but not limited to all contraceptives approved by the federal Food and Drug Administration, emergency contraceptives;

(3) Abortion-inducing drugs; and

(4) Sterilization procedures.

Uh, yep.

@BuzzFeedBen Ben Smith

So did the Bishops just invite the GOP out onto a limb with them, then saw it off? 6 hours ago

This has been another edition of simple answers to simple questions.

From Public Policy Polling (PPP):

February 10, 2012

Our polling on the birth control issue

We’ve had a lot of people asking us this week if we’ve done any polling about the birth control issue.  We did a national survey for Planned Parenthood last weekend. Here are the key things we found [pdf]:

-56% of voters generally support the birth control benefit, while 37% are opposed. Independents strongly favor it, 55/36, and a lot more Republicans (36%) support it than Democrats (20%) oppose it. Women are for it by a 63/29 margin.

-Only 39% of voters support an exemption for Catholic hospitals and universities from providing the benefit, while 57% are opposed to one.

– There is a major disconnect between the leadership of the Catholic Church and rank and file Catholic voters on this issue. We did an over sample of almost 400 Catholics and found that they support the benefit overall, 53-44, and oppose an exception for Catholic hospitals and universities, 53-45. The Bishops really are not speaking for Catholics as a whole on this issue.

-Republican agitating on this issue could cause themselves trouble at the polls this year. 40% of voters say Mitt Romney’s stance makes them less likely to vote for him, while only 23% consider it a positive.  With the Catholic oversample it’s 46% less likely and 28% more likely. And Congressional Republicans are imperiling themselves as well. 58% of voters oppose them trying to take the benefit away, while only 33% are supportive.

Republicans will win this fall if they can convince voters that the economy stinks and it’s Barack Obama’s fault and putting them in power will fix the problem. If they want to make it about social issues and making it easy and affordable for women to access birth control, Democrats win.

They can’t help themselves, can they?

Previously:

Rick Santorum (r) in Lee’s Summit, Missouri (February 3, 2012)

Sen. Will Kraus (r): warming up the crowd about urban schools at the Santorum rally (February 4, 2012)

Rick Santorum in Lee’s Summit, Missouri: the Blutarsky sermon on the summit (February 4, 2012)

The republican beauty contest presidential primary is today. Do your part to make it so:

Public Policy Polling

Big Day Possible for Santorum [pdf]

Q2 The Republican candidates for President on the ballot in Missouri are Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Ron Paul – 19%

Mitt Romney – 32%

Rick Santorum – 45%

Someone else/Not sure – 4%

[emphasis added]

Politics makes strange bedfellows, albeit with very different agendas, from the crosstabs:

2012 GOP Pres Primary

Ideology

Very liberal

Ron Paul – 18%

Mitt Romney – 18%

Rick Santorum – 63%

Someone else/Not sure – 0%

[….]

Tea Party ID

Yes

Ron Paul – 18%

Mitt Romney – 25%

Rick Santorum – 54%

Someone else/Not sure – 2%

[emphasis added]

Heh.

The PPP poll interviewed 958 likely primary voters in Missouri on February 6th. The margin of error was 3.2%.

Remember, to take part in the Missouri Democratic Party delegate selection process (caucus) you must have cast a ballot in today’s election. It doesn’t matter which ballot.