Twelve individuals have filed as candidates for the 7th Congressional District seat.

Representative Billy Long (r) [August 2013 file photo].

Via the Missouri Secretary of State:

UNOFFICIAL Candidate Filing List
Primary 2016
(Name, Mailing Address and Date/Time Filed as of 3/29/2016 5:00 p.m.)

U.S. Representative – District 7

Democratic
Name Mailing Address Random Number Date Filed
Genevieve (Gen) Williams 11186 MULBERRY RD NEOSHO MO 64850 3/18/2016
Camille Lombardi-Olive 789 EVEREST RD GALENA MO 65656 3/25/2016
Steven Reed PO BOX 1343 SPRINGFIELD MO 65801 3/29/2016

Republican
Name Mailing Address Random Number Date Filed
Billy Long 3246 EAST RIDGEVIEW SPRINGFIELD MO 65804 273 2/23/2016
Christopher Batsche 118 BILLY DR CASSVILLE MO 65625 2/25/2016
Matthew Evans 4919 S GLENN AVE SPRINGFIELD MO 65810 3/11/2016
Lyndle Spencer 1450 W JACKSON P. O. BOX 1243 OZARK MO 65721 3/23/2016
Nathan Clay Bradham 204 S OLIVE ST ROLLA MO 65401 3/25/2016
Matthew K. Canovi 3711 W FARM ROAD 14 BRIGHTON MO 65617 3/29/2016
James Nelson 1182 S FISK AVE SPRINGFIELD MO 65802 3/29/2016
Mary Byrne 2630 S WILLIAMS CT SPRINGFIELD MO 65807 3/29/2016

Libertarian
Name Mailing Address Random Number Date Filed
Benjamin T. Brixey 113 W KENNEDY ST STRAFFORD MO 65757 2/26/2016

[emphasis added]

Count ’em, that’s three Democrats, eight republicans (including the incumbent), and a Libertarian. They must be trying to tell somebody something.

There is a difference.

Voters in Missouri do not register by party. As a consequence all primaries are open. That is, when you vote in a primary at your precinct you have to request a party ballot. There is no provision or mechanism for splitting parties by contest in primary voting.

In 1992 there was no presidential primary. I participated in the Missouri Democratic Party presidential candidate caucus in Johnson County. If memory serves me correctly approximately 100 people (probably fewer) attended the caucus in an elementary school in Fayetteville, Missouri, at bend in the road off of Highway 13. The candidates were nominated from the floor of the caucus. They were Bill Clinton, Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown, and uncommitted. The Tsongas group didn’t have enough people to meet the viability threshold, so they joined the uncommitted group. Again, if I recall correctly, the distribution of the allocated delegates from Johnson County to the Congressional District meeting and the state convention were 3 for Bill Clinton, 2 for “uncommitted” and 1 for Jerry Brown.

Think about that. Approximately 100 people made those decisions.

The Missouri Secretary of State has the statistics of Democratic Party votes by county in presidential primaries from 2000 to the present. The turnout in Johnson County, Missouri over those cycles:

2000 Presidential Primary 1287 votes for Democratic Party candidates

2004 Presidential Primary 2535 votes for Democratic Party candidates

2008 Presidential Primary 4788 votes for Democratic Party candidates

2012 Presidential Primary 289 votes for Democratic Party candidates

2016 Presidential Primary 3433 votes for Democratic Party candidates

[emphasis added]

There is a difference.

In 2012 Barack Obama was the incumbent – anecdotally, a significant number of Democrats in Johnson County pulled republican ballots in the primary to vote for Rick Santorum for the purpose of messing with Mitt Romney’s presidential candidacy. Rick Santorum (r) won the statewide beauty contest with more than 50% of the vote. The delegates were allocated later – they went to Mitt Romney (r). Note that republican party rules for delegate allocation are different than those of the Democratic Party.

It’s the system we have. Individual states decide to hold a caucus or a primary. The candidates operate in that environment and they know the rules and the processes ahead of time.

When I hear that “super delegates” are inherently “undemocratic” from supporters of one candidate or another I wonder why they aren’t also pointing out the participation rate differences (and the challenges of turnout) in caucuses versus primaries. It’s the system we have, the candidates and voters have to operate in it. If you don’t like it you have four years to get your party and legislature to change it in time for 2020. Just don’t try to tell me in 2016 that the results of a caucus are an indicator of anything other than the views of the people who could show up.

Keep Calm and Carry On.

Previously:

Keep Calm and Carry On (March 9, 2016)

Keep Calm and Carry On – part 2 (March 16, 2016)

Hillary Clinton [2014 file photo].

As it stands to date (via RealClearPolitics):

2016 Democratic Popular Vote
RCP Total – Clinton 8,651,128 Sanders 6,111,918 Clinton +2,539,210

[emphasis added]

Election 2016 — Democratic Delegate Count
Delegates Won – [Total available – pledged] 4051 Clinton 1119 Sanders 813
Superdelegates – (712) Clinton 467 Sanders 26

[emphasis added]

In Slate:

How Hillary Clinton Keeps Winning
Obama beat her with the same strategy she’s using to pull away from Bernie Sanders.
By Jamelle Bouie

….Clinton still has a long slog to the nomination—it takes time to accumulate the delegates she needs—but it’s a clear one, without major obstacles. In a sense, she and her team have reverse-engineered Obama’s 2008 effort, bringing “establishment” resources—huge fundraising and tremendous party support—to bear on an insurgent-style campaign that focused on voter contacts and organizing instead of paid media and massive events….

If you attend a rally for the opposition party’s leading candidate and get punched in the face it doesn’t qualify as a particular effective get out the vote activity for your candidate. I suspect that it works quite well for the opposition candidate.

“…that focused on voter contacts and organizing instead of paid media and massive events…”

Exactly this.

In a world where t-shirts, bumper stickers, and campaign rallies are a lot of fun the real work gets done by those who try to persuade actual voters by knocking on doors and staffing phone banks. And come election day you drag your voters to the polls.

Previously:

Keep Calm and Carry On (March 9, 2016)

Keep Calm and Carry On – part 2 (March 16, 2016)

So, Missouri had a presidential primary yesterday. The unofficial results:

State of Missouri – Presidential Preference Primary – March 15, 2016
Unofficial Results
as of 3/16/2016 7:25:44 AM

U.S. President 3041 of 3041 Precincts Reported

Hillary Clinton Democratic 310,602 49.611%
[….]
Bernie Sanders Democratic 309,071 49.366%
[….]
Uncommitted Democratic 3,702 0.591%
Party Total: 626,075

[….]
Donald J. Trump Republican 382,093 40.831%
Marco Rubio Republican 57,006 6.092%
Ted Cruz Republican 380,367 40.646%
[….]
John R. Kasich Republican 94,533 10.102%
[….]
Party Total: 935,794

[emphasis added]

Hillary Clinton (D) swept all five states, but it’s really about the delegates. She had a really good night in that respect, too.

Donald Trump (r) had a very good night. Marco Rubio (r) not so much.

Someone won the Internets last night:

Florida Man ‏@_FloridaMan
Now, I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.
[….] 6:24 PM – 15 Mar 2016

Elections and voting matter.

Previously:

Keep Calm and Carry On (March 9, 2016)

…there’s a presidential primary in Missouri today.

Sunrise in west central Missouri.

I’ve already voted.

After the polls close (7:00 p.m.) you can check the statewide returns here at the Missouri Secretary of State web site.

It ain’t over till it’s over.

Hillary Clinton [2014 file photo] and Bernie Sanders [2016 file photo].

At 538:

What The Stunning Bernie Sanders Win In Michigan Means
By Harry Enten

….Sanders must rack up big wins, and fast. Thanks to an 83 percent to 16 percent win in Mississippi, Clinton gained in the overall delegate count on Tuesday and leads Sanders by more than 200 pledged delegates. Her strong performance in Mississippi also put Sanders further behind….That may not be as sexy as the tremendous upset in Michigan, but math is rarely sexy….

Winning the nomination isn’t about winning a state (though it can help) or leading (or not leading) in a national poll. It’s about amassing delegates. You amass delegates by winning big in big states and/or keep on winning in a large number of medium size and small states – based on the results the Democratic Party proportionally allocates pledged delegates to candidates with a minimum 15% threshold. A candidate does not overcome a lead of 200 pledged delegates by fighting the leader to a rough draw in a big state primary. Especially if they get pasted in another primary on the same day.

Old media, amateurs, and first time true believers might believe in momentum. It could happen, but momentum is more than fighting to a draw.

The candidates have gone on to the next states. Their campaigns will make adjustments. Complacent supporters may or not wake up and decide to show up. Irresistible force will meet immoveable object. If that continues to happen everywhere the end result will be the same – one candidate will still have a 200 pledged delegate lead. This could change, it probably won’t. That doesn’t mean it can’t.

In the absence of a significant groundswell toward Bernie Sanders in the large population states to come – that means he has to paste Hillary Clinton by huge margins – the current status of the leader and second place in a race of two won’t change significantly.

So, partisans, fight the good fight. Work for your candidate. Go door to door. Man those phone banks. Don’t forget to show up and vote. Put a dent in the universe. Be nice to each other. Keep calm and carry on, for the real darkness awaits you in November.

Previously:

Empty fields and empty lots don’t vote, cable news networks don’t do math (March 6, 2016)