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Public Policy Polling (PPP) conducted a survey [pdf] of 859 voters (440 Republican voters) in Missouri from August 7th through August 9th. The margin of error was 3.3% (4.7% for the Republican primary voters).

In the 2016 U.S. Senate race:

….Roy Blunt is one of the least popular Senators in the country, with only 30% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 47% who disapprove. Blunt has become increasingly unpopular over the course of hi s first term in the Senate….

….Blunt is quite unpopular with independents (24/52) and Democrats (17/62) but what really makes his numbers soft is that he’s only at 46/28 approval even with Republican voters. Those are the kinds of numbers that usually make you susceptible to a primary challenge.

Blunt leads Democratic challenger Jason Kander 40/35 for reelection with 25% of voters undecided. That high level of indecision may have a lot to do with voters just not being that familiar with Kander at this point-only 35% know enough about him to have formed an opinion either way….

Talk about a possible game changer. Think about what could happen in a presidential election year with a Democratic Party nominee investing in a serious GOTV campaign in Missouri. Yep.

In the gubernatorial race:

….The Governor’s race looks like a sheer toss up at this point. Republican hopeful Peter Kinder leads Democratic candidate Chris Koster 40-37. But Koster has leads of 4-8 points over the rest of GOP field-it’s 39/35 over Bob Dixon, 40/36 over Catherine Hanaway, 40/35 over Randy Asbury, 41/36 over John Brunner, 40/34 over Eric Greitens, and 39/31 over Bart Korman….

If it’s Koster (D) and Kinder (r) in 2016 the difference (now within the margin of error) will be between $4,000,000.00 and $60,000.00. At least for now, until voters start paying attention to the Twitterverse past, hotel bills, and a living wage. Just think about all the possible general election campaign commercials and mailings.

There’s an interesting result from probable 2016 republican gubernatorial primary voters:


Q8 (Republicans) Given the choices of Randy Asbury, John Brunner, Bob Dixon, Eric

Greitens, Catherine Hanaway, Peter Kinder, and Bart Korman who would you most like to see as the Republican candidate for Governor next year?

5% Randy Asbury

9% John Brunner

7% Bob Dixon

4% Eric Greitens

11% Catherine Hanaway

27% Peter Kinder

0% Bart Korman

37% Not sure

Those candidates who currently have significant campaign assets will be able to spend their primary money on that undecided 37% and in redefining some of Peter Kinder’s (r) advantage in superficial name recognition into liabilities. Again, the campaign commercials could be epic.


PPP polling results in Missouri: social media hints (August 11, 2015)