Public Policy Polling [pdf] released additional results from from their survey of 582 Missouri voters interviewed between January 27th and 29th. The margin of error for the poll is 4.1%.

Interesting results:

Q8 If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama – 45%

Mitt Romney – 45%

Undecided – 9%

Why would that be?

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Favorable – 30%

Unfavorable – 54%

Not sure – 15%

[emphasis added]

Apparently Missouri has a significant number of perceptive poor people.

The crosstabs also enlighten us about the republican base:

Romney Favorability

Somewhat conservative

Favorable – 46%

Unfavorable – 35%

Not sure – 19%

Very conservative

Favorable – 36%

Unfavorable – 48%

Not sure – 16%

[emphasis added]

That would explain a lot.

Previously: PPP: Claire McCaskill, not particularly liked (February 1, 2012)

Well, look at this:

Steelman, Perry lead MO GOP races, Kinder vulnerable [pdf]

…In the same time frame, Sarah Steelman has jumped into a lead over Todd Akin for the right to face vulnerable Sen. Claire McCaskill. She leads him 40-29, with John Brunner at 6%, and 26% undecided. Akin has not picked up any supporters in the interim; he led Steelman 29-28 four months ago, with Brunner also still at 6% and Ed Martin, who has since dropped out, at 9%. The difference is that Steelman has reversed Akin’s leads with those who say they are somewhat conservative (36% of the electorate) and moderate (15%). Akin led with those groups by respective eight- and three-point margins in the previous poll, but Steelman now leads by whopping 21- and 33-point spreads, while also leading by one with the 46% plurality of voters furthest to the right….

….PPP surveyed 400 usual Missouri Republican primary voters from September 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates….

….Q12 If the Republican candidates for Senate were

Todd Akin, John Brunner, and Sarah Steelman,

who would you vote for?

Todd Akin ……………………………………………….. 29%

John Brunner ………………………………………….. 6%

Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 40%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

And the word in the Twitterverse from Sarah Steelman’s (r) campaign?:

@SteelmanCamp Sarah Steelman 2012

Sarah Steelman’s leading the primary race for Senate with 40% to 29% for Todd Akin and 6% for John Brunner. Akin… fb.me/1dzgjJp6j 20 hours ago

Don’t you just love republican primaries?

Public Policy Polling (PPP) released a poll [pdf] today of 632 Missouri voters taken from September 9th through the 12th. The margin of error is 3.9%. This being crazy times, the race is close. Then again, it is a long time to November 2012.

…PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates…

More on that later.

Some of the top line results:

43% approve of McCaskill’s work in Washington, down from 46% four months ago. The same 47% disapprove. Among the 87 senators on which PPP has polled, only one of the 23 Democrats on the ballot next year has a worse standing-Nebraska’s Ben Nelson.

But for now at least, McCaskill leads three Republicans running to replace her. She tops former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, 43-42, down from 45-42 in the previous poll. McCaskill also edges Rep. Todd Akin, 45-43, versus 46-45 in May. And she leads businessman John Brunner, 46-37, up from 47-41.

This is an interesting aspect of the sample:

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain…………………………………………… 48%

Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%

Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

This is what actually happened in 2008:

Official Election Returns

State of Missouri General Election  – 2008 General Election

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

As announced by the Board of State Canvassers

on Tuesday, December 02, 2008

U.S. President And Vice President   Precincts Reporting 3532 of 3532

  John McCain, Sarah Palin REP 1,445,814 49.4%

  Barack Obama, Joe Biden DEM 1,441,911 49.3%

  Bob Barr, Wayne A. Root LIB 11,386 .4%

  Chuck Baldwin, Darrell Castle CST 8,201 .3%

  Ralph Nader, Matt Gonzalez IND 17,813 .6%

  Cynthia McKinney, Rosa Clemente WI 80 .0%

Total Votes   2,925,205

[emphasis added]

This could mean that Democratic voters have left the state, that republican voter suppression efforts are taking a toll, that Democratic voters don’t answer the phone, that Democratic voters by a larger margin forgot who the voted for, or all of the above and maybe more. Or, maybe, there’s a slight republican bias to the poll.

There are some interesting crosstabulations:

McCaskill Approval

Very liberal

Approve 84%

Disapprove 10%

Not sure 6%

Somewhat liberal

Approve 74%

Disapprove 16%

Not sure 10%

Moderate

Approve 61%

Disapprove 28%

Not sure 11%

Somewhat conservative

Approve 22%

Disapprove 66%

Not sure 13%

Very conservative

Approve 9%

Disapprove 84%

Not sure 7%

Those very conservative voters don’t like Claire McCaskill at all. Anyone think they’ll vote for her?:

McCaskill/Akin

Very liberal

Claire McCaskill 89%

Todd Akin 2%

Undecided 9%

Somewhat liberal

Claire McCaskill 79%

Todd Akin 16%

Undecided 5%

Moderate

Claire McCaskill 67%

Todd Akin 19%

Undecided 14%

Somewhat conservative

Claire McCaskill 21%

Todd Akin 64%

Undecided 15%

Very conservative

Claire McCaskill 8%

Todd Akin 82%

Undecided 10%

Nope, those very conservative voters ain’t gonna vote for Claire. But, what’s this? 16% of “somewhat liberal” voters say they’re going to vote for Rep. Todd Aiken (r), arguably the most rabid right wingnut in the Missouri congressional delegation? That’s crazy talk. This is either a bad sample, or Claire has pissed of a significant portion of the base. Any guesses?

By the way, neither Sarah Steelman (r) nor John Brunner (r) do as well with “somewhat liberal” voters as Todd Aiken (r).

There is a gender gap in Claire McCaskill’s (D) approval:

McCaskill Approval

Woman

Approve 46%

Disapprove 39%

Not sure 15%

Man

Approve 40%

Disapprove 55%

Not sure 5%

Uh, the men have made up their minds it would seem. Women could make a significant difference in this election.

“….Claire McCaskill continues to look extremely vulnerable for reelection,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it bodes well for her that even at a low time for her party she’s running slightly ahead of her opposition. She might be able to hang on if Democrats see any improvement in their position over the next year….”

Word.

It’s about jobs. I wonder why no one thought of that before. Oh, right. They did.

Public Policy Polling released a poll of the 2012 Missouri Senate race today, interviewing “515 Missouri voters from November 29th to December 1st.” The margin of error is 4.3%.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Missouri Senate Race Close

Claire McCaskill was involved in incredibly close races for Governor in 2004 and Senator in 2006 from Missouri and it looks like she’s in for another one as she seeks reelection to the Senate in 2012. McCaskill leads Sarah Steelman by 1 point (45-44) in a hypothetical match up and trails Jim Talent and Peter Kinder each by 2 points in them (47-45 and 46-44 respectively,) all results well within the poll’s margin of error….

Peter Kinder? It must be Twitter volume.

Early Look at Missouri Senate Shows Close Race [pdf]

“….Claire McCaskill’s accustomed to fighting close races and she may have to do it again,”said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Missouri’s lopsided contest this year is likely to be a blip on the radar of the state’s overall trend toward close races….”

That is until all of the republican corporate surrogates start dumping their advertising dollars into the state.

Interesting crosstabulation:

Ideology – Obama Approval

Base [all]

Approve – 43%

Disapprove – 52%

Not sure – 5%

Liberal

Approve – 85%

Disapprove – 11%

Not sure – 4%

Moderate

Approve – 61%

Disapprove – 32%

Not sure – 8%

Conservative

Approve – 12%

Disapprove – 85%

Not sure – 2%

Ideology – McCaskill Approval

Base [all]

Approve – 43%

Disapprove – 44%

Not sure – 13%

Liberal

Approve – 80%

Disapprove – 13%

Not sure – 7%

Moderate

Approve – 58%

Disapprove – 26%

Not sure – 16%

Conservative

Approve – 16%

Disapprove – 70%

Not sure – 14%

So Claire McCaskill (D) has the same overall approval numbers as President Obama, but she slips among self identified liberals and moderates when compared to the president. She only has 4% approval over the president among self identified conservatives. True, she has significantly more undecideds in that group.

Ultimately, after the attack ad blitzes for the 2012 election the republican conservative base will come home.

Claire McCaskill (D) will need to decide if it’s a vain quest to keep tacking right and alienate more of the Democratic Party base in the hope that conservatives won’t follow their natural inclinations.

She might want to ask Robin Carnahan (D) how that worked out.  

The pollsters start talking about 2012:

Monday, November 8, 2010

The 2012 Senate Class

There were a ton of competitive Senate races in 2010 and the playing field could be even wider in 2012. Since the beginning of August PPP has polled on the approval ratings of 18 Senators who are up for reelection next time around…

…The three least popular and conceivably most vulnerable Senators up next time that we’ve polled on are Joe Lieberman, Claire McCaskill, and Debbie Stabenow….

…Missouri was extremely brutal for Democrats this year and McCaskill has not built up a lot in the way of crossover support from Republicans and independents during her first term in the Senate…

Claire McCaskill

Approval [%] 40/53

Spread [%]-13

[emphasis added]

Previously:

Senator Claire McCaskill (D): try as you might, you can’t do much when you’re in the minority party (January 29, 2010)

Uh, Claire, you got to dance with them what brung you (January 21, 2010)

What do Democrats stand for? (January 20, 2010)

Senator Claire McCaskill (D): take the job for a spin and see what it’ll do (January 1, 2010):

…A question. If the only two Democratic U.S. Senators to the right of you by voting record are Evan Bayh and Ben Nelson, and the right wingers and teabaggers in Missouri won’t vote for you anyway, and you’re not overly concerned about re-election, why don’t you take the job for a spin and see what it can do rather than cater to all the fear mongering obstructionists and the inside the beltway cocktail weenie circuit…?

Those teabaggers will never vote for you, Claire. They never have, they never will. Work on turning out your base.

Senator Claire McCaskill (D) – because insurance company profit margins need to be protected (September 17, 2010)

Senator Claire McCaskill (D): open forum in Hillsboro – photos (August 11, 2010)

Rude, loud, and obnoxious. And to think that there wasn’t a dirty anti-war hippy anywhere in sight.

After driving five hundred miles (in eight and a half hours) round trip I had time to reflect and process the event at Jefferson College in Hillsboro. The seemingly impotent rage coming from some of the people in attendance was stunning in its force.

They’re pissed that Obama is president. They’re pissed that McCain isn’t. They’re pissed that Jim Talent isn’t their senator. They probably voted for George W. Bush twice (and probably his daddy twice). They’d probably be pissed if you pointed out that dubya is and was a monumental screw-up – it reminds them that they made that particular choice. They didn’t vote for Claire. They’ll never vote for Claire. They’re outraged that their sense of entitlement about calling the shots in what others should believe and even how the open forum should have been run isn’t accepted or catered to.

To them a late entering African American woman breaking the “sign rule” is an outrage upon civilized society and is pointed out instantly. It is enough of an outrage so that some jerk can jump out of the stands and try to rip it away (for God’s sake, it was a Rosa Parks poster). Yet, a bunch of people can stand after that with their “Don’t Tread on Me” flags and there’s not a whisper from the crowd.

They’re pissed that Claire asked how many of them were on Medicare (several hundred) and then asking how many wanted off (a handful) – pointing out the crowd’s hypocrisy about government health care. No matter what anyone does they’ll be pissed and stay pissed. And they ain’t voting for any Democrats. Ever.…

[emphasis added]

What did we tell you?

Public Policy Polling, 11/13-15, 769 voters

Carnahan (D) 43%

Blunt (R) 42%

Undecided 15%

Blunt 53%

Purgason 16%

Undecided 31%

Carnahan (D) 42%

Purgason (R) 35%

Undecided 23%

More info under the fold

Favorable/Unfavorables

Obama: 43/52

Carnahan: 40/36

Blunt: 30/38

Purgason: 7/14

Congressional Democrats: 27/58

Congressional Republicans: 21/62

“Next year do you think you will vote in the Democratic Primary, the Republican primary, or will you not vote in a primary?”

Democratic 41%, Republican 41%, Not Sure/Won’t Vote 18%

“Do you think that Congressional Democrats are too liberal, too conservative, or about right?”

“Do you think that Congressional Republicans are too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

59% say Dems are too liberal, 29% say Reps are too liberal. 12% say Dems are too conservative, 43% say Reps are too conservative. 29% say that Dems are about right, 28% say that Reps are about right.

During Roy Blunt’s 13 years in Congress do you think he has been part of the problem or part of the solution when it comes to huge deficits and too much government spending?

Problem: 65%

Solution: 35%

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrats: 36%

Republicans: 32%

Independent/Others: 33%

How about some internals?

82% of Dems approve of how Obama’s doing his job, 88% of Reps disapprove of Obama’s job performance, Indys split 59/32 unfavorable. Obama’s best demo is 18-29 (46/44) and his worst is 65+ (57/37). 816 (KC area) and 314 (STL) approve of Obama, the rest disapprove by 30 points or more.

53% of Republicans view Blunt favorably, 53% of Democrats view Blunt unfavorably, with 30%+ unsure on both sides. Indies split 44/23 unfavorable. Blunt doesn’t top 32% amongst any age demo. Amongst 417 (SW MO) respondents, Blunt has 38% favorability and 38% of people viewing him unfavorably. Yes, amongst his “base”, for every person who likes him, someone dislikes him.

67% of Republicans view Carnahan unfavorably, 74% of Democrats view Carnahan favorably. Indies split 40/33 unfavorable. Carnahan’s best Demo is 46-65. The least certain demo is 18-29 (37% unsure). Robin has a positive with 314 and 816, and is within 10 with 660 respondents.

82% of Republicans picked Blunt, 83% of Democrats picked Carnahan. Indies split 44/32 Blunt. Carnahan wins 18-29 and 46-65. Carnahan wins 314 and 816, Blunt wins 417, 573 and 636 by 15+. Blunt wins 660 by a 42/35 margin.

10% of McCain voters will vote in the Democratic primary, 5% of Obama voters will vote in the Republican primary. (originally I did McCain/Obama splits before getting to the DRIs and editing. But this is more interesting than the DRI split here)

Blunt beats Purgason, 61/10 amongst Republicans and loses Democrats who got lost and who’d vote in a Republican primary, while winning 37/24 amongst Independents.

60% of Democrats view Congressional Democrats favorably, 94% of Republicans view Congressional Democrats unfavorably. Indies split 66/17 unfavorable. 40% of 18-29 view them favorably, and every other Demo is baaad for the Congressional Democrats. Only 314 respondents view Congressional Dems favorably.

44% of Republicans view Congressional Republicans unfavorably, 38% of Republicans view Congressional Republicans favorably. 79% of Democrats view Congressional Republicans unfavorably. Indies split 68/14 unfavorable. 18-29% is 30% favorable, 65+ is 53% unfavorable, the best showings for the Grand Obstructionist Party. 417 respondents had a 20% net unfavorable, a high for the Republicans.

57% of Democrats think Congressional Democrats are just right. 21% say too conservative. 22% say too liberal. 91% of Republicans say Congressional Democrats are too liberal. 46-65 are the best demo for “just right”.

50% of Republicans think that Congressional Republicans are just right, and 38% think that Congressional Republicans are too liberal. 73% of Democrats say that Congressional Republicans are too conservative. 36% of 18-29s say that Congressional Republicans are too liberal, compared to 35% in that demo..

36% of Republicans think that Blunt’s part of the problem, to go along with 83% of Democrats. But 48% of McCain voters think that Blunt is part of the problem. 74% of Indies think that Blunt is part of the problem.. Around 73% of voters from 18 to 45 think Blunt is part of the problem.

And how about some maps?

Roy v. Robin

Obama’s job approval

Blunt, problem or solution?

Conclusions

1) Robin Carnahan has some room to expand amongst some favorable demographics (18-29).

2) Roy Blunt’s base likes him as much as base Republicans liked John McCain.

3) Nobody know who Chuck Purgason is, but his polling numbers exceed his name recognition.

4) People in the KC and STL areas still like Democrats.

5) Roy Blunt is a Washington Insider who is part of the reason for the problems we’re seeing today, and people at least see his time as a GOP leader as a problem.

6) Independent voters don’t like anybody.

7) Congress isn’t popular. Good luck to any current Congressmen who were Republican leaders on selling themselves as outsiders.

Public Policy Polling

The race for President in Missouri is so close we have to give the results of our final poll in decimal points. Barack Obama leads John McCain 49.4 to 48.6 in the state, an outcome that needless to say is within the poll’s margin of error…

…PPP surveyed 1,343 likely voters from October 31st to November 2nd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.7%.

Missouri Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters

Conducted November 2, 2008

By Rasmussen Reports for FOX News

2* If the Presidential Election were held today, would you vote for Republican John McCain,

Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr, Independent Ralph Nader or Green Party

Candidate Cynthia Ann McKinney?

McCain – 49%

Obama – 49%

Barr – 0%

Nader – 0%

McKinney – 0%

Not sure – 2%

…NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

24 Hours Till Votes Are Counted, Missouri Is Still Tied, Could Go Either Way: McCain 48%, Obama 48%, in SurveyUSA‘s final tracking poll of Missouri, released Election Eve. No change since an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago. Research, underwritten by KMOX radio in St. Louis and KCTV-TV in Kansas City…

…800 adults interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/02/08 yielded 754 registered voters and 674 likely voters….

…Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%…

Public Policy Polling (PPP) conducted a survey (pdf) from August 13th through August 17th of 750 likely General Election voters in Missouri in which they explored voter preferences in the statewide down ticket November races (Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Treasurer, Attorney General). The results were released on August 20th. The margin of error is 3.6%.

We’ve written previously on the presidential head to head numbers and the governor’s race.

Lieutenant Governor:

Q3 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are Republican Peter Kinder and Democrat Sam Page. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Kinder/Page

All

Kinder – 48%

Page – 37%

Undecided – 15%

Men

Kinder – 52%

Page – 35%

Undecided – 13%

Women

Kinder – 43%

Page – 39%

Undecided – 17%

Kinder/Page by Party

Democrat

Kinder – 16%

Page – 70%

Undecided – 14%

Republican

Kinder – 82%

Page – 11%

Undecided – 7%

Other

Kinder – 43%

Page – 27%

Undecided – 30%

Sam Page needs to educate those Democratic and “Other” undecideds. That’s going to take a lot of money (and television). Kinder, as the incumbent, appears to have his republican base all sewn up. That is until they start thinking about what’s been going on for the last four years…

Secretary of State:

Hubbard who?

Q4 The candidates for Secretary of State are Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Mitch Hubbard. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Carnahan/Hubbard

All

Carnahan – 49%

Hubbard – 39%

Undecided – 11%

Hubbard Who?

State Treasurer:

Q5 The candidates for State Treasurer are Republican Brad Lager and Democrat Clint Zweifel. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Lager/Zweifel

All

Lager – 41%

Zweifel – 36%

Undecided – 23%

That’s a significant chunk of undecideds. This will come down to money. 37% of the “Others” (not republican, not Democrat) are undecided.

Attorney General:

Q6 The candidates for Attorney General are Democrat Chris Koster and Republican Mike Gibbons. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Koster/Gibbons

All

Koster – 42%

Gibbons – 39%

Undecided – 19%

Men

Koster – 41%

Gibbons – 45%

Undecided – 14%

Women

Koster – 43%

Gibbons – 33%

Undecided – 24%

Koster/Gibbons by Party

Democrat

Koster – 71%

Gibbons – 14%

Undecided – 15%

Republican

Koster – 17%

Gibbons – 70%

Undecided – 13%

Other

Koster – 36%

Gibbons – 30%

Undecided – 34%

The numbers for Koster among Democrats are not out of line with the other statewide Democratic candidates. Again, those “Other” undecideds will be an important target group. Television, television, television…  

Public Policy Polling (PPP) conducted a survey (pdf) from August 13th through August 17th of 750 likely General Election voters in Missouri. The results were released on August 20th. The margin of error is 3.6%.

Q1 The candidates for President are Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

McCain/Obama

All

McCain – 50%

Obama – 40%

Undecided – 9%

Men

McCain – 53%

Obama – 39%

Undecided – 8%

Women

McCain – 47%

Obama – 42%

Undecided – 11%

The sample appears a bit heavy on republicans – they constitute 38% of the interviews with Democrats  at 37% and “Other” at 24%.

McCain/Obama by Party

Democrat

McCain – 15%

Obama – 78%

Undecided – 8%

Republican

McCain – 87%

Obama – 9%

Undecided – 4%

Other

McCain – 46%

Obama – 33%

Undecided – 21%

Whoa. That’s a huge percentage of undecideds among the “others”.

PPP also ran various statewide races head to head:

Q2 The candidates for Governor are Republican Kenny Hulshof and Democrat Jay Nixon. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Hulshof/Nixon

All

Hulshof – 42%

Nixon – 48%

Undecided – 11%

Men

Hulshof – 46%

Nixon – 45%

Undecided – 9%

Women

Hulshof – 37%

Nixon – 51%

Undecided – 12%

Hulshof/Nixon by Party

Democrat

Hulshof – 11%

Nixon – 80%

Undecided – 9%

Republican

Hulshof – 76%

Nixon – 18%

Undecided – 6%

Other

Hulshof – 34%

Nixon – 45%

Undecided – 21%

Again, that’s a chunk of undecideds in the “others”.

It’s still “the economy, stupid” among voters:

Q10 I am going to name 7 issues. Which of these is most important to you?

War in Iraq – 15%

Education – 7%

Economy and Jobs – 47%

Taxes – 4%

Moral and Family Values – 13%

Health Care – 8%

Immigration – 5%

Other – 1%

[emphasis added]

The other statewide races are also interesting. It would appear that television is key for those down ticket races.

Rasmussen conducted a poll of 500 “likely voters” in Missouri on July 7th. “This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.” The margin of error is 4.5%.

2* 2008 Presidential General Election Match-Ups

McCain 47%

Obama 42%

Other 6%

Not sure 5%

Public Policy Polling conducted a 728 sample poll of “likely voters” from July 2nd through July 5th. The margin of error is 3.5%.

All

John McCain 47%

Barack Obama 44%

republicans

McCain 85%

Obama 10%

Democrats

McCain 15%

Obama 77%

Independents

McCain 46%

Obama 38%