Gee, radically cut state revenue and the state budget and state services collapse. No sparkles, no cotton candy, and no rainbow unicorns…

Because right wingnut billionaires in Kansas and Missouri have a plan.

SurveyUSA conducted poll in Kansas August 20-23, 2014  of 560 likely general election voters. The margin off error is 4.2%:

If the election for Kansas Governor were today, which ticket would you vote for? (tickets rotated) The Republican ticket of Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer? The Democratic ticket of Paul Davis and Jill Docking? Or the Libertarian ticket of Keen Umbehr and Josh Umbehr?

All:

Brownback/Colyer (R) – 40%

Davis/Docking (D) – 48%

Umbehr/Umbehr (L) – 5%

Undecided – 6%

Male:

Brownback/Colyer (R) – 43%

Davis/Docking (D) – 44%

Umbehr/Umbehr (L) – 7%

Undecided – 6%

Female:

Brownback/Colyer (R) – 38%

Davis/Docking (D) – 53%

Umbehr/Umbehr (L) – 3%

Undecided – 6%

[emphasis added]

Female/Male in the sample: 51%/49%. Party affiliation: 46% republican, 32% Democrat, 18% Independent.

And there’s this in the U.S. Senate race:

If the election for United States Senator from Kansas were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Pat Roberts? Democrat Chad Taylor? Libertarian Randall Batson? Or Independent Greg Orman?

Pat Roberts (R) – 37%

Chad Taylor (D) – 32%

Randall Batson (L) – 4%

Greg Orman (I) – 20%

Undecided – 6%

Which one of these issues will be most important in your vote for United States Senator? Obamacare? Immigration? Jobs and the economy? Or something else?

Obamacare – 22%

Immigration – 22%

Jobs And The Economy – 41%

Something Else – 12%

Not Sure – 4%

[emphasis added]

Interestingly, there’s not any appreciable gender gap in the Senate race. We’ve been seeing a lot of ads for the Independent candidate (we’re in the Kansas City media market – Johnson County, Kansas, a population center, is, too). Jobs, jobs, jobs, and jobs.

Even the Prince of right wingnut Voter ID is in a fight:

f the election for Kansas Secretary of State were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Kris Kobach? Or Democrat Jean Schodorf?

Kris Kobach (R) – 46%

Jean Schodorf (D) – 46%

Undecided – 8%

[emphasis added]

Unfortunately for Missouri, the problems in Knasas will hold no sway with Missouri’s right wingnut republicans. They’ll do the same thing here. Because right wingnut dogma can’t fail, it can only be failed.

Here’s the raw numbers from SurveyUSA, 10/28-11/3/2012, for KSDK-TV, KSHB-TV, KSPR-TV and KYTV-TV, 589 likely voters:

If the election for President were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

Mitt Romney (R) 50%

Barack Obama (D) 43%

Other 4%

Undecided 3%

Missouri will also elect a Governor. If the election for Governor were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Dave Spence? Democrat Jay Nixon? Or Libertarian Jim Higgins?

Dave Spence (R) 39%

Jay Nixon (D) 48%

Jim Higgins (L) 5%

Undecided 8%

Missouri will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for US Senate were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Todd Akin? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Or Libertarian Jonathan Dine?

Todd Akin (R) 36%

Claire McCaskill (D) 51%

Jonathan Dine (L) 8%

Undecided 5%

So let’s go into the details

The first detail worth noting is that on a survey with the sample of 38% Republicans and 31% Democrats, Claire McCaskill leads by 15 points. Yes, that is possible.

SurveyUSA finds McCaskill leading by 24% (55-31) with Independents. She wins 67% of Moderates and 20% of Conservatives (81% of the electorate). She wins 47% of landlines and 61% of non-landlines. SurveyUSA uses a system where “Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop or other electronic device”.

That landline number is 47-40 Claire. That’s important, compared to the landline-only Public Policy Polling results, where Claire leads 48-44. While the whole cellphone/landline debate hasn’t exactly produced any real consensus about the impact of being landline-only or being landline/cellphone/others. The SurveyUSA numbers move closer to the PPP numbers when you compare their numbers on the exact method uses to survey voters.

(for reference: SurveyUSA landline numbers for President were 55/40 Romney and Nixon 47/Spence 45)

Another difference between SurveyUSA and Public Policy is the partisan composition of their universes.

SurveyUSAs sample: 38R/31D/29I (as noted)

PPP’s (.pdf) sample: 36R/33D/32I

So Claire’s numbers are better on a +7R SurveyUSA than a +3R PPP? Yes, that’s possible.

Public Policy says that Claire and Akin are tied with Independents and that Akin wins 79% of Republicans, instead of the 67% that SurveyUSA put in the Akin column.

If you get wild and creative, you could combine the Public Policy sample, and SurveyUSA party numbers, then you get the following numbers:

President: Romney 48, Obama 46

Senator: Claire 54, Akin 35

Governor: Nixon 50, Spence 39

If you combine the SurveyUSA sample and Public Policy numbers, you get:

President: Romney 54, Obama 43

Senator: Claire 45, Akin 45

Governor: Nixon 50, Spence 46

So that sets up a fun little universe of possibilities if you mix your drinks. (Although the Romney v. Obama numbers from Mason-Dixon were the same as Blunt/Carnahan numbers (54/41). But that’s Mason-Dixon.)

If Claire McCaskill finishes ahead of Jay Nixon, the SurveyUSA method is going to be vindicated and/or we will have wound up in a world we didn’t expect to be in back on August 7th.

If she doesn’t do that well, then the universe continues undisturbed. Because it’s not like the varying success of non-landline methods has stopped Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov, and other online-friendly pollsters. Sometimes pollsters like SurveyUSA get a direct hit (McCain 48, Obama 48). Sometimes they miss slightly (Claire 51, Talent 42). Polling is sort of like a science.

The Presidential race in Missouri is pretty much two campaigns who only run ads in the parts of Missouri whose TV stations cover Iowa. But in all likelyhood, the better Obama does, the better the rest of the Democrats do in the election and the Missouri Democratic ticket probably runs slightly ahead of Obama.

In 2012, We live in a very surreal state. And in a few days, we’ll begin the process of forgetting Todd Akin, Dave Spence and Mitt Romney.

On December 18th SurveyUSA released a 600 sample poll of adults taken in Missouri from December 11th through the 13th which shows an improvement in the approval numbers for Missouri Governor Jay Nixon (D) when compared to November 2009 (there was no October release from SurveyUSA). The margin of error is 4.1%.

The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jay Nixon is doing as Governor?

All

49% – approve

42% – disapprove

9% – not sure

Democrats [36% of sample]

63% – approve

30% – disapprove

8% – not sure

republicans [29% of sample]

43% – approve

51% – disapprove

12% – not sure

Independents [28% of sample]

39% – approve

50% – disapprove

11% – not sure

There has been continued erosion among “Independents”, and improvement (!) among republicans and Democrats. There is significant disapproval (30%) among Democrats.

Regionally there is net positive approval for Jay Nixon in St. Louis, Southeast and Southwest (!) Missouri. There is net disapproval in the Northern region (3%) of the state and Kansas City (4%).

There is no gender gap:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jay Nixon is doing as Governor?

Gender

Male [48% of sample]

51% – approve

42% – disapprove

7% – not sure

Female [52% of sample]

48% – approve

42% – disapprove

10% – not sure

A few weeks ago I wrote:

…Given the generally dismal political polling fortunes of almost everyone else in Missouri and the country, these numbers [don’t] exactly portend disaster for Governor Nixon. We’ll keep an eye on future releases to see if this particular poll is an outlier or a trend…

That November poll may have been an outlier and it definitely wasn’t an indication of a trend.

On December 18th  SurveyUSA released a 600 sample poll of adults taken in Missouri from December 11th through the 13th showing the approval numbers for Senators Claire McCaskill (D) and Kit Bond (r). The margin of error is 4.1%.

The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Claire McCaskill is doing as United States Senator?

All

48% – approve

45% – disapprove

7% – not sure

Democrats [36% of sample]

70% – approve

24% – disapprove

7% – not sure

republicans [29% of sample]

32% – approve

61% – disapprove

7% – not sure

Independents [28% of sample]

38% – approve

56% – disapprove

6% – not sure

Keeping the months long trend and looking at the November numbers, Claire McCaskill’s overall approval, when compared to President Obama, remain stable.

Senator McCaskill’s disapproval numbers among Democrats remain high (at 24%), though slightly better when compared to the November numbers.

The percentage of self-identified liberals who are not happy when it comes to approving of the job Claire McCaskill is doing remains significant (yet stable), though there has been some improvement among Conservatives. There is slippage among Moderates. You think Claire might be pulling that Overton Window a little too far to the right for them, too?:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Claire McCaskill is doing as United States Senator?

Ideology

Conservative [39% of sample]

28% – approve

66% – disapprove

6% – not sure

Moderate [35% of sample]

58% – approve

38% – disapprove

4% – not sure

Liberal [14% of sample]

69% – approve

24% – disapprove

7% – not sure

The samples for Conservatives, Moderates, and Liberals are similar to the November poll.

The December numbers for Kit Bond aren’t particularly stellar, but are a small net positive:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kit Bond is doing as United States Senator?

All

49% – approve

42% – disapprove

10% – not sure

Democrats [36% of sample]

40% – approve

51% – disapprove

9% – not sure

republicans [29% of sample]

64% – approve

28% – disapprove

8% – not sure

Independents [28% of sample]

50% – approve

43% – disapprove

7% – not sure

Kit Bond’s approval numbers among republicans have declined since the November survey. His numbers among “Independents” and Democrats have improved. Evidently, for 40% of Democrats bringing home the bacon trumps obstructing health care reform. Any guesses on that 28% of disapproving republicans?  

SurveyUSA released a 600 sample poll of “adults” on December 18th taken in Missouri from December 11th through the 13th. The margin of error is 4.1%. The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City.

President Obama’s overall approval numbers have improved when compared to the November survey (there was no October release from SurveyUSA). And the December numbers are similar, though slightly better than, the September survey.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

All

45% – approve

52% – disapprove

3% – not sure

Democrats [36% of sample]

75% – approve

22% – disapprove

3% – not sure

republicans [29% of sample]

11% – approve

86% – disapprove

3% – not sure

Independents [28% of sample]

46% – approve

52% – disapprove

3% – not sure

The numbers among Democrats (generally very good) and republicans have remained relatively unchanged. The percentage of self-identified Democrats in this sample (36%) is significantly higher than the percentage (30%) in the November poll. There has been a significant improvement in approval among “Independents” and, as a result, there is a corresponding improvement in President Obama’s overall numbers. It is possible that the November poll numbers were an outlier.

On November 23rd SurveyUSA released a 600 sample poll of adults taken in Missouri from November 20th through the 22nd (Yeah, yeah, we’re just getting to it now, we know.) which shows a drop in the approval numbers for Missouri Governor Jay Nixon (D) when compared to September 2009 (there was no October release from SurveyUSA). The margin of error is 4.1%.

The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jay Nixon is doing as Governor?

All

44% – approve

46% – disapprove

10% – not sure

Democrats [30% of sample]

57% – approve

37% – disapprove

6% – not sure

republicans [31% of sample]

36% – approve

52% – disapprove

12% – not sure

Independents [32% of sample]

43% – approve

43% – disapprove

15% – not sure

There has been significant erosion among “Independents”, an improvement (!) among republicans, and some erosion in approval among Democrats.

Regionally there is net positive approval for Jay Nixon in St. Louis and Northern Missouri (!). There is net disapproval in the Southwest and Southeast regions of the state with a slight (2%) net disapproval in Kansas City.

The gender gap apparent in the September poll is not quite where it was. It’s been reversed(!) somewhat, with a significant increase in “not sure” among females:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jay Nixon is doing as Governor?

Gender

Male [48% of sample]

47% – approve

49% – disapprove

4% – not sure

Female [52% of sample]

41% – approve

43% – disapprove

16% – not sure

Given the generally dismal political polling fortunes of almost everyone else in Missouri and the country, these numbers [don’t] exactly portend disaster for Governor Nixon. We’ll keep an eye on future releases to see if this particular poll is an outlier or a trend.

On November 25th  SurveyUSA released a 600 sample poll of adults taken in Missouri from November 20th through the 22nd showing the approval numbers for Senators Claire McCaskill (D) and Kit Bond (r). The margin of error is 4.1%.

The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Claire McCaskill is doing as United States Senator?

All

48% – approve

48% – disapprove

4% – not sure

Democrats [30% of sample]

70% – approve

27% – disapprove

3% – not sure

republicans [31% of sample]

28% – approve

69% – disapprove

3% – not sure

Independents [232 of sample]

41% – approve

56% – disapprove

3% – not sure

Again, looking at September, Claire McCaskill’s overall approval numbers, when compared to President Obama, are relatively stable.

Senator McCaskill’s disapproval numbers among Democrats have increased (to 27%) when compared to September.

The percentage of self-identified liberals who are not happy when it comes to approving of the job Claire McCaskill doing is still significant:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Claire McCaskill is doing as United States Senator?

Ideology

Conservative [40% of sample]

20% – approve

76% – disapprove

3% – not sure

Moderate [34% of sample]

66% – approve

33% – disapprove

1% – not sure

Liberal [13% of sample]

65% – approve

28% – disapprove

7% – not sure

The sample of Conservatives is 40% in the November poll and 32% in the September poll. The sample of Liberals is 13% in the November poll and 16% in the September poll.

The November numbers for Kit Bond aren’t that good either:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kit Bond is doing as United States Senator?

All

47% – approve

44% – disapprove

8% – not sure

Democrats [30% of sample]

35% – approve

58% – disapprove

7% – not sure

republicans [31% of sample]

72% – approve

23% – disapprove

4% – not sure

Independents [32% of sample]

45% – approve

45% – disapprove

11% – not sure

Kit Bond’s approval numbers among republicans have improved over September. His numbers among “Independents” and Democrats remain unchanged.

It’s the base, Claire, the base.

SurveyUSA released a 600 sample poll of “adults” on November 23rd taken in Missouri from November 20th through the 22nd. The margin of error is 4%. The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City.

President Obama’s overall approval numbers have continued to decline when compared to the September (there was no October release from SurveyUSA) and August surveys.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

All

38% – approve

58% – disapprove

4% – not sure

Democrats [30% of sample]

74% – approve

24% – disapprove

2% – not sure

republicans [31% of sample]

12% – approve

82% – disapprove

6% – not sure

Independents [32% of sample]

33% – approve

65% – disapprove

2% – not sure

The numbers among Democrats, republicans and “Independents” have remained relatively unchanged, though the percentage of self-identified Democrats in this sample (30%) is significantly lower than the percentage (37%) in the September poll. The percentage of republicans and “Independents” sampled in the November poll are correspondingly higher.

Get 24% of Democrats and/or 18% of self-identified Liberals to weigh in additionally in the approval column and the president’s overall approval numbers would look quite a bit better.

You got to dance with them what brung you. Go figure.

On September 30th SurveyUSA released a 600 sample poll of adults taken in Missouri from September 27th through the 28th which shows overall results similar to the August numbers for Missouri Governor Jay Nixon (D). The margin of error is 4.1%.

The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jay Nixon is doing as Governor?

All

51% – approve

38% – disapprove

11% – not sure

Democrats [37% of sample]

62% – approve

32% – disapprove

6% – not sure

republicans [25% of sample]

31% – approve

58% – disapprove

11% – not sure

Independents [29% of sample]

54% – approve

37% – disapprove

9% – not sure

There has been significant improvement among “Independents”, no change among republicans, and an increase in disapproval among Democrats.

Regionally there is net positive approval for Jay Nixon in Kansas City, St. Louis, and the southeast region of the state. There is net disapproval in the southwest region of the state with an even split (at 40%) and a high number of “not sure” responses (19%) in the northern region.

There appears to be a gender gap:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jay Nixon is doing as Governor?

Gender

Male [48% of sample]

44% – approve

46% – disapprove

10% – not sure

Female [52% of sample]

56% – approve

32% – disapprove

12% – not sure

Governor Nixon’s stable statewide numbers, when compared with those for others taken at the same time (President Obama, Senators Bond and McCaskill), appear to indicate that the water quality issue in the Lake of the Ozarks has not gained traction in further diminishing the governor’s approval.

On September 30th  SurveyUSA released a 600 sample poll of adults taken in Missouri from September 27th through the 28th showing the approval numbers for Senators Claire McCaskill (D) and Kit Bond (r). The margin of error is 4.1%.

The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Claire McCaskill is doing as United States Senator?

All

50% – approve

43% – disapprove

7% – not sure

Democrats [37% of sample]

76% – approve

22% – disapprove

2% – not sure

republicans [25% of sample]

28% – approve

64% – disapprove

9% – not sure

Independents [29% of sample]

42% – approve

50% – disapprove

8% – not sure

Compared to August Claire McCaskill’s overall approval numbers, when compared to President Obama and Kit Bond, are relatively stable.

Senator McCaskill’s disapproval numbers among Democrats have increased when compared to August. The August disapproval numbers among “Independents” have decreased significantly, with the approval number from this group improving slightly.

The percentage of self-identified liberals who are “not sure” when it comes to approval of the job Claire McCaskill is doing has increased significantly:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Claire McCaskill is doing as United States Senator?

Ideology

Conservative [32% of sample]

28% – approve

70% – disapprove

2% – not sure

Moderate [39% of sample]

63% – approve

33% – disapprove

4% – not sure

Liberal [16% of sample]

65% – approve

24% – disapprove

11% – not sure

The September numbers for Kit Bond aren’t very good:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kit Bond is doing as United States Senator?

All

45% – approve

45% – disapprove

10% – not sure

Democrats [37% of sample]

35% – approve

58% – disapprove

8% – not sure

republicans [25% of sample]

63% – approve

29% – disapprove

7% – not sure

Independents [29% of sample]

47% – approve

41% – disapprove

11% – not sure

What I wrote last month:

…Well, well, well. It’s a rarity when Senator “sit on the fence and bring home the bacon” Bond (r) has a lower approval number (barely) than Claire McCaskill. There’s been some slippage in the numbers for Bond among republicans and Democrats.

Kit Bond has more fence sitters. The decline in the “not sure” (the undecidieds) in Claire McCaskill’s approval numbers may be an indication of polarization. It is possible, as she has been subjected to public verbal assault by irrational teabaggers at her town halls, that the Democratic base is tending to reflexively defend her. And some republicans and especially “Independents” are going the other way (yes, some republicans are going into the approval column, too). Time will tell.

Well, well, well. It’s a trend, not an outlier.