Jackson County is split between two election boards. One board serves Kansas City, the other board serves everything else. The board for the rest of Jackson County made their results official today.

ROY BLUNT* 63870 54.42%

ROBIN CARNAHAN 47634 40.58%

Other 5561 4.73%

TOM SCHWEICH* 61255 52.73%

SUSAN MONTEE 50567 43.53%

CHARLES W. BAUM 4203 3.62%

It was only 2 years ago that this part of Missouri reported these results

JOHN MCCAIN-SARAH PALIN* 92833 49.79%

BARACK OBAMA-JOE BIDEN 90722 48.66%

So how did it all fall apart? Let’s go region by region

7 townships make up the territory of the Jackson County Election Board. One of these townships (Blue Township aka Independence) is split 8 ways. We will look at the results for each one of the Blue Townships along with the other 6 townships, showing both the results for Carnahan/Blunt and Montee/Schweich (with the reality that Montee/Schweich was a generic “which party do you like more” vote). Map images are taken off of Dave’s Redistricting App

Blue 1

Description: NW Independence and Sugar Creek, MO. The type of precinct that any competent Democratic campaign should win every time.

2004p: Kerry 2954, Bush 2016. JK 58.9%, Bush 40.2%

2008p: Obama 2831, McCain 1868. Obama 58.8%, McCain 38.8%

2010s: Carnahan 1265, Blunt 1238. RC 46.6%, Blunt 45.6%

2010a: Montee 1390, Schweich 1140. SM 51.7%, TS 42.4%

Turnout plunge, 2008 Pres to 2010 Senate: 4812 in 08, 2715 in 10

Home area of this poster. Also worth noting that 12.24% is not the biggest plunge in support from Obama to Carnahan.

Blue 2

Description: NE Independence, moving from the city limits on one side past Missouri Highway 291 on the other.

2004p: Kerry 2961, Bush 2356. 55.2% to 43.9%

2008p: Obama 2994, McCain 2171. 56.7% to 41.1%

2010s: Carnahan 1311, Blunt 1422. 44.3% to 48%

2010a: Montee 1453, Schweich 1315. 49.6% to 44.9%

Turnout plunge: 5277 votes in 2008, 2961 votes in 2010, the biggest drop in this area. Never a great sign when 2/3rds of the McCain voters vote and half of the Obama voters don’t vote for Democrats in 2010.

Biggest drop from Obama to Carnahan. Biggest drop from Montee to Carnahan. This is also part of the 53rd House District, which Democrat Diane Egger lost to Republican Brent Lasater. Lasater spent the vast sum of under $500 to be swept into office, despite a vast disadvantage in yard signs, functioning campaign offices, and family ties.

Blue 3

Description: The most Northeastern Parts of Independence. Includes unincorporated Jackson County, bordered by the Little Blue River

2004p: Kerry 3256, Bush 3337. 49% to 50.25%

2008p: Obama 3531, McCain 3253. 51.1% to 47%

2010s: Carnahan 1664, Blunt 2163. 40.8% to 53%

2010a: Montee 1828, Schweich 2032. 45.25% to 50.3%

Turnout drop: 6915 votes in 2008, 4080 votes in 2010.

Another 10% swing. Another big Montee/Carnahan drop (you have realized why the generic statewide Dem race is being listed here, right?). Although this was an area of importance for the groundgame of the campaign, more so than Blue 2 or Blue 1. Well, we held things at the state average in Blue 3.

Blue 4

Description: The Independence Square and lots of area that was in Independence pre-annexation binge (in the 1940s). Also includes Englewood

2004p: Kerry 2750, Bush 2428. 52.5% to 46.4%

2008p: Obama 2877, McCain 2197. 55.6% to 42.5%

2010s: Carnahan 1388, Blunt 1472. 45.3% to 48.1%

2010a: Montee 1443, Schweich 1423. 47.7% to 47%

Turnout drop: 5173 votes in 2008, 3058 votes in 2010.

In an ideal world, precincts you win by 13% are not 50/50 in the next election. But then again, in an ideal world, candidates who spend under $500 don’t get elected for being in the right party.

Blue 5

Description: Independence south of Missouri-78, stretching from Blue Ridge Boulevard to Lee’s Summit Road

2004p: Kerry 3519, Bush 3455. 50.1% to 49.15%

2008p: Obama 3462, McCain 3316. 50.1% to 48%

2010s: Carnahan 1935, Blunt 2305. 42.7% to 50.8%

2010a: Montee 2095, Schweich 2183. 46.7% to 48.7%

I would point out the examples of suburban areas moving to the right, but there’s a lot of examples of that and no clear diagnosis as to the cause other than the obvious cause of “Suburbanites are not voting for us”

Blue 6

Description: Independence, mainly east of Lee’s Summit Road, includes Blue River Community College and a lot of growing areas

2004p: Kerry 3609, Bush 3741. 48.8% to 50.5%

2008p: Obama 3744, McCain 3533. 50.7% to 47.8%

2010s: Carnahan 1930, Blunt 2478. 41.15% to 52.8%

2010a: Montee 2073, Schweich 2395. 44.5% to 51.4%

You might be looking at the Blunt/McCain percentage thinking that’s the sign of future hope. Overlooking that a lot of protest votes went to two right-ring candidates due to the fact that neither Senate campaign ran much positive advertising in the first half of the campaign. It would be surprising if significantly more people voted for the third party candidates from the Dem side than from the Rep side.

Blue 7

Description: SW Independence, going all the way to Phelps Road (in-between Noland and Lee’s Summit)

2004p: Kerry 3866, Bush 3749. 50.50% to 49%

2008p: Obama 3577, McCain 3473. 49.9% to 48.5%

2010s: Carnahan 2155, Blunt 2537. 43.8% to 51.6%

2010a: Montee 2320, Schweich 2407. 47.45% to 49.2%

Blue 7 is probably the best example of what i’d call “Obama underperforming” in 2008. Or maybe the best example of a turnout drop. But the post 2004 results posted online by Jackson County don’t show the turnout of registered voters.

Blue 8

Description: SE Independence, lots of nice houses, and lots of economic development over the last 15 years

2004p: Kerry 3671, Bush 4320. 45.6% to 53.7%

2008p: Obama 3945, McCain 4115. 48.2% to 50.3%

2010s: Carnahan 2397, Blunt 3038. 42.1% to 53.4%

2010a: Montee 2585, Schweich 2868. 45.85% to 50.9%

The only Blue Township ‘realm’ won by McCain, which didn’t get drastically bluer on the Auditor’s side (Schweich beat McCain by a little over 2 percent in the areas featured in this post, but we can see that they ran even in this area). For every 1000 Blue-8 voters who voted in 2008, 695.9 of them voted in 2010, the best rate for Independence. As well, it had the most votes cast (beating Blue-7 by 700) and the most Bass Pro Centers of all the Blue areas.

Brooking

Description: Raytown, Missouri

2004p: Kerry 7559, Bush 6527. 53.3% to 46.05%

2008p: Obama 8123, McCain 5702. 57.9% to 40.6%

2010s: Carnahan 4659, Blunt 3894. 52% to 43.4%

2010a: Montee 4910, Schweich 3640. 55.2% to 40.9%

Only one township was better for Carnahan in the “not running far behind Obama” category, but that township wasn’t as important as this one. In the JCEB-area, Carnahan ran 8.1% behind Obama and here, she ran 5.9% behind Obama. Plus Raytown did not bleed turnout like the Independence townships did.

Fort Osage

Description: Northeastern Jackson County, includes small towns like Buckner, Sibley, and Levasy

2004p: Kerry 1166, Bush 1863. 38.2% to 61.1%

2008p: Obama 1240, McCain 1965. 38% to 60.3%

2010s: Carnahan 662, Blunt 1408. 29.9% to 63.7%

2010a: Montee 740, Schweich 1327. 33.9% to 60.8%

Sadly for Sibley residents (their precinct went for Obama, really), this area is out of the running for the 2012 Democratic National Convention.

Prairie

Description: Lee’s Summit, Missouri

2004p: Kerry 17136, Bush 27762. 38% to 61.6%

2008p: Obama 21589, McCain 27557. 43.5% to 55.6%

2010s: Carnahan 12818, Blunt 20167. 37.4% to 58.9%

2010a: Montee 13369, Schweich 19598. 39.4% to 57.75%

That 2008 swing sure didn’t last into 2010.

Sni-a-Bar

Description: Blue Springs and Grain Valley

2004p: Kerry 13974, Bush 20824. 39.9% to 59.5%

2008p: Obama 16464, McCain 20980. 43.4% to 55.3%

2010s: Carnahan 8656, Blunt 14741. 35.2% to 59.9%

2010a: Montee 9274, Schweich 14239. 38% to 58.3%

Biggest plunge in percent outside of Independence. This township fell back to the norm in 2010 (well, at least for Auditor)

Van Buren

Description: Southwestern Jackson County, includes Lone Jack (where everybody going to school in Warrensburg had one friend get pulled over for speeding) and Lake Lotawana

2004p: Kerry 1458, Bush 2456. 36.95% to 62.2%

2008p: Obama 1579, McCain 2591. 37.5% to 61.5%

2010s: Carnahan 989, Blunt 1964. 32% to 63.5%

2010a: Montee 1054, Schweich 1887. 34.4% to 61.6%

The best township when it comes to not having a huge drop from Obama to Carnahan. Which means nothing significant because it’s very Republican and is still very Republican. Also, for every 1000 voters who voted in 2008, 733.6 voted in 2010, the best rate of any township in 2010.

Washington

Description: Grandview, MO

2004p: Kerry 6168, Bush 3666. 62.4% to 37.1%

2008p: Obama 7121, McCain 3084. 68.9% to 29.8%

2010s: Carnahan 3764, Blunt 2193. 60.9% to 35.4%

2010a: Montee 3814, Schweich 2090. 62.4% to 34.2%

Turnout plunge: 10338 for President, 6182 for Senator

Grandview is pretty much the only area with a significant minority population in the district and it’s votes as a percentage of the 2008 votes still beat Blue 1 and 2. If 1000 people voted in Grandview in 2008, 598 of them would have voted in 2010. The overall percentage was 62.9% and the worst townships put up around 56% of their 2008 turnout in 2010.

Election results sorted by the 2008-2010 turnout plunge

Places where the 2010 vote total was under 60% of the 2008 vote total: Carnahan 49.4%, Blunt 44.7% (18996 votes, from Blue 1, 2, 3, 4 and Washington) – Obama 59.5%, McCain 38.7% (32515 votes)

Places where the 2010 vote total was over 2/3rds of the 2008 vote total: Carnahan 37.9%, Blunt 58% (50163 votes, from Blue 7, 8, Fort Osage, Prairie, and Van Buren) – Obama 44.1%, McCain 54.8% (72416 votes)

Places not included in the last two lines: Carnahan 40.15%, Blunt 54.7% (42787 votes, Blue 5, 6, Brooking, Sni-a-Bar) – Obama 48%, Obama 50.6% (66266 votes)

It’s no coincidence that the areas with the biggest plunge in turnout are the areas with the biggest drops in Democratic support in this area.

As someone who did a share of volunteering with the knowledge of where the walks were going to, I can tell you that a lot of canvassers went to Blue 3 and Blue 8. The logic being used was that from August to mid-October, voters who we had no data on were being contacted to figure out where they stood on the election.

But the problem seems to be not the people who were unknown and undecided, but the people who were passed over because we knew they were Democrats. And ultimately, the GOTV approach seemed to be a lot closer to just one visit on the last weekend. The coordinated campaign (of the MO Democratic Party and OFA) found a way to aim for one group, lay off another, only to see both groups not vote for Democrats on election day.

The 4 Blue areas which saw the biggest drops in turnout and Democratic performance will likely still be very White when the 2010 Census totals are released. The 2000 totals showed those areas standing in-between 85% to 92% and the precinct results from the 2008 primary showed strong majorities for Hillary Clinton. So I feel it would be inaccurate to categorize the drops in turnout as a “diehard Obama supporter” thing like the turnout drops in St. Louis City and Kansas City will be categorized (both areas had turnout below 40% on 11/2). Without knowing the number of registered voters in Blue 1 through 4, I’d imagine there’s no way the turnout broke 40% and may be closer to 33%

The most concise advice is the most vague advice here. Don’t move left or right. Just figure out what you actually stand for which is relevant to the voters and talk about that stuff. It seems that the Republican message was more relevant to inspiring people to vote. It may not be a message of realistic positions, but what was the alternative? Insane beats Irrelevant most of the time.

Nothing says Washington DC outsider like seven-term Congressman (and former Republican Whip) Roy Blunt! He’s such an outsider that there are dining establishments in DC that he has only been to once!

(Wonder how much of that debt is in stuff that he voted for, but wants you to forget about)

More under fold

No, they did not get that semissourian.com thing wrong (seeing as it’s a newspaper, you would think that).. they’re citing a USER SUBMITTED STORY titled “Robin Carnahan now likes TARP” from “Tim O’Toole”

Oh yeah, they also stretched “made a good case” into “would have voted for”. After all, if you admit something has a good case, you obviously support it. If only they taught logic to the O’Toole Family. Then the letter to the editor (errrrrrrr… I meant User-Submitted Story) quoted Rich Chrismer a few times.

Head on a pedestal. I need to get that photoshop program!

Also, how much was the bailout out of that $2.5 trillion? A trillion was added from Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 pre-bailout.

But then again, it’s OK if a Republican does it.

BTW, do they need more Robin headshots for their collection?

Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies? Nothing says Grassroots like anonymous fliers in millions of homes and a company headed by Karl Rove.

Granted, if they went with Crossroads Astroturf Policy Strategies, they would have an unfortunate acronym.

I wish people who talk about fiscal conservatism wouldn’t carpetbomb the voters in mailers. Yes, that means you Turfroots Mailer Factories. And tell Tim O’Toole that I said “Howdy!”

Democrat Arthur Lieber filed to face Todd Akin. Lieber may be an innovator in Clayton touch football or it might be another Lieber. 2008 Democratic Nominee Bill Haas filed as a Republican to expand the primary field to 4 Republicans. Haas is presumably the most liberal candidate in the Republican field and the favorite to finish last. Cya in 2012, Bill.

Democrat Clint Hylton of Polo filed in the 6th Congressional district today. Hylton appears to be an insurance salesman and he will face Doctor Ted Rights of Hamilton in the Democratic primary to face noted Republican street-brawler Sam Graves in November.

Democrat (!?!?!) Scott Eckersley of Kimberling City filed in CD7 to face Tim Davis of Branson. Eckersley is best known for suing the state of Missouri, alleging he was fired for blowing the whistle on Blunt administration e-mail destruction. Tim Davis seems like a pretty qualified candidate and I hope Eckersley got the gift basket for joining the party already. If you’re a Democrat in CD7 and undecided, at least you’ll get a contested primary to vote in this Summer. Republican Steve Hunter of Joplin also filed in the 7th CD, expanding that field to 9 candidates.

And why yes, no Democrats filed against Blaine Luetkemeyer. But another Libertarian filed (Christopher Dwyer of Hallsville will face Steven Wilson of Westphalia). Hope the Libertarian isn’t embarrassingly crazy because he’ll be the only alternative to Luetkemeyer now.

Republican Ronald Beller of Kaiser and Libertarian Martin Lindstedt of Granby filed for the US Senate. Beller ran for Congress as a Democrat in 1992 and for the state House as a Republican in 1998, losing primaries both times. Lindstedt is a White Supremacist who ran in every cycle from 1994 to 2004, missing the last two while imprisoned/institutionalized. The Senate Field is 11 Republicans, 3 Democrats, 3 Libertarians, 2 Constitution Party candidates and 1 nutball racist write-in.

More under fold

2008 Republican CD4 nominee Jeff Parnell of Rogersville filed for the 4th district again, providing an early favorite to finish third in the 10 candidate primary.

Lots of Libertarians fueled up their freedom-powered minivan and filed today. Steven Hedrick of Warrensburg filed for Congress in the 3rd district, which is a few hours east of Warrensburg. Thomas Holbrook of Warrensburg filed in the 4th Congressional district, to create a contested primary with Jason Michael Braun of Harrisonville (and you say that there’s no Johnson/Cass rivalry). Randy Langkraehr of Warrensburg filed in the 5th Congressional District. Constitution party candidate Nick Ivanovich filed in the 3rd district as well.

Democrat James Long of St. Louis filed in the 4th Senate District. Republican Greg Zotta of Imperial filed to face Senator Ryan McKenna in the 22nd Senate District. Democrat Helen Steele Burton of St. Louis filed in the 24th Senate District. Constitution party candidate Richard Newton of Washington filed in the 26th Senate district. Republican John DeStefano of Kansas City filed in the 34th Senate District. Democrats are contesting 12 of 17 Senate Districts, Republicans are contesting 14 of 17 Senate Districts.

Democrat Robert Ritterbusch of Maryville filed to face Mike Thomson in HD4. Democrat Dale Toms of Polo filed to face Mike Lair in HD7. Republican Jason Gregory of St. Joseph filed to face Pat Conway in HD27. Republican Fred Walter filed in HD35 in a 3 candidate field, with the winner facing Democrat Jim Baldwin of Holt.

Four more Democrats filed to replace Roman LeBlanc in HD43 (who is leaving after one term). Ron Hunt, Karis Harrington, Randy Dunn, and Kim Douglass will join Mark Wassterstrom in that primary.

Democrat Penny Hubbard (mother of Rodney? asked Jake Wagman) filed in HD57 against Freshman Dem James Morris. Democrats David Leipholtz and Daniel Schesch filed in HD64. Republicans Patricia Verde and Damien Johnson filed in HD64 as well. Republican Bill Hartzog filed in HD66. Democrats Stephen Findley and Paul Kieselhorst filed in HD73, challenging Stacey Newman. Democrat Eillen McGeoghegan filed in HD77. Republican Ryan Meyer of Ballwin filed to primary Andrew Koenig in HD88 (no word on if Meyer likes tourism promotion). Republican Keith Guichet of Manchester filed in HD92, joining Don Griffin in primarying Sue Allen for some reason. Former State Rep and current Abe Lincoln lookalike George “Bob” Engelbach will be facing Ron Casey in HD103. Republican Joe Rusch will be facing Jacob Hummel in HD108. Democrat Cy Dashtaki of Jefferson City is running for the open seat in HD113.

Constitution Partier Gary Murray of Lawson filed in HD5. Constitution partier Steven Newton filed in HD95, setting up a contested Constitution Party primary with Charles Harter. Constitution Partier Jennifer Friedrich of St. Mary is running in HD157. While Libertarian Bill Wayne filed in HD121 and he will be facing our favorite Republican CPA and his much more qualified able Democratic opponent in November.

Our Congrats to Linda and John Fischer because they will be facing each other in November in HD107. If this is a “we’ll make it in the newspapers” campaign, I hope they use the same campaign manager to cut costs.

581 candidates filed total. 212 Republicans, 171 Democrats, 19 Constitution Party, and 11 Libertarians are running for the State House. The Libertarians filed more candidates overall than the Constitution Party, by a 28-27 margin.

The smoke is clearing. Time to have fun.

Seven candidates filed for the US House, State Senate or State House today. It must have been too nice to cause any more of a rush to Jeff City.

Republican Rusty Wallace of House Springs filed in the 3rd Congressional district. Will Ed Martin have enough in his gas tank to outrun a candidate who shares a name with a NASCAR driver? We’ll see. (Added bonus: the famous Rusty Wallace is from South STL County in the 3rd. The potential for the most hilarious primary result ever is still out there) John Wayne Tucker of Arnold is also running in the Republican primary. Russ Carnahan has 3 primary opponents.

Republican Eric James McElroy of Tunas filed in the 4th Congressional district. For those of you unfamilar, Tunas is an unincorporated community in Dallas County, northeast of Springfield. McElroy faces Vicky Hartzler, Bill Stouffer and 5 dwarfs in the Republican primary. Ike Skelton faces an opponent in the Democratic primary.

Republican Jerry Fowler of Richmond filed in the 5th Congressional district. No word on why a 4th district resident is running in the 5th district, aside from contrariness. Fowler faces the increasingly perennial Jacob Turk and 2 other Republicans. The winner of the Republican primary will lose decisively to Emanuel Cleaver and like it, dad-gummit.

Democrat Jim Lepper filed to face Senator Jolie Justus in the 10th district for some reason. The only info on him involves him trying to get tea partiers to give a damn about a Democratic primary. Republican Lindell Shumake of Hannibal filed in the 6th State House district. Republican Bill Birkes of Joplin filed in the 128th state house district creating a contested primary with Charlie Davis of Webb City. Lastly, Republican Bernie Mowinski of Sunrise Beach filed in the 155th state house district and he has two opponents in the primary. No word on if he has ever operated a lawn-mowing business. Also, State Rep Roman Lee LeBlanc is apparently going to end his re-election candidacy on Monday.

Filing ends at 5pm on Tuesday. Sam Graves, Todd Akin, and Blaine Luetkemeyer need Democratic Challengers. Just Saying.

Republican Tony Laszacs of Waynesville filed for the US Senate race today. An easier task than finding 10K signatures for a Moderate Conservative Party. Republicans tend to be unhappy to have votes siphoned. Ask Jon Ashjian.

Democrat Abdul Akram of Kansas City filed for Auditor. I’m not sure what in particular Susan Montee has done too badly and she’s one of the more direct officials from what i’ve seen. So the margin of victory should be an interesting baseline for “well-known Democrat v. unknown Democrat” races (typically it’s around 83/17 for the wellknown Dem)

St. Rep. Tim Flook of Liberty withdrew from his re-election campaign today and Republican Myron Neth filed in his place. Coincidentally this came several days after Flook took a stand against spending any money on promoting Missouri tourism. No word on if he will spend more time with his family at Elephant Rocks State Park. Democrat Mark Ellebracht filed for this seat yesterday.

Also, Republican Curtis Farber filed for the opportunity to lose by a large percentage to Mike Colona in HD67, Republican Clifford Olsen of Jeff City filed in HD114, and Libertarian Bradley Stubbs filed in HD142.

The last days to file are Friday, Monday, and Tuesday. The weather should be awesome. Our state capital is pretty nifty too.

Five Words to define HCR in the election season

Option A: Move forward or move backward

Option B: You Can’t Trust The Republicans

Hey, can’t hurt to have multiple options.

Ultimately the campaign over the HCR bill will have wild distortions, both for the contents of the bill and the moves that Republicans can do if they win in November.

The distortions, involving death panels, abortions, and tomatoes being poisonous, are not going to stop (zombie lies live forever) and only the most honed of the Republicans will be able to pick out a part of the bill, in the actual bill, that is the most objectionable. Which would be a fun game to play provided you have safety goggles on at the time.

As for the moves that are possible for the Republicans. They will not be able to do anything whatsoever to forcibly repeal the HCR law. They might remove portions but only if Obama agrees and an amendment to current law. If you hear a person voting Republican to repeal the law in 2011, they’re a sucker of the highest magnitude.

But plain and simple, the Republicans want to move backwards on Health Care and the only unknown is how far back they want to go when they’re tossing you out into the cold.

The alternative is moving forward. The alternative is making sure that America’s health care system is not just the biggest in the world, but that it keeps working to be the best in the world. Considering the Republican record, they’d only move forward while kicking and screaming the entire way. It’s not in their nature or reputation to move forward.

Moving forward and ironing out any possible flaws beats throwing the entire law out. Think about it, throwing the entire bill out is the statement that this is a 100% bad bill which is highly unlikely. Partly because there are a lot of elements to the bill and partly because it’d take a lot of coldness to reject every single part of the bill.

Shredding the innards of the bill and keeping some organs intact wouldn’t be a repeal, just a criminal assault. The Repealwecan Republicans want to go all the way backwards (how far, 1964? 1934? who knows).

You give the Republican an inch, they take a mile. You give them 51% and 286 electoral votes and they attempt to claim a mandate to kneecap Social Security. If they get 218 House seats and 51 Senate seats, they’d probably try to overexert themselves again.

What about the last 10 years tells you that you can trust the Republican Party? What about the last 15 months tells you that these guys are not going to propose extreme leaps back in time? Paul Ryan’s plan is not off their table and they’re prepared to be candidates who will smile when they talk about medicare and elected officials who will decimate that program.

George W. Bush has been retired to his historical infamy, but the architects of his putrid presidential policy still exist and they’re still fueling the House and Senate Republicans. These people seem to think that their policies were not rejected decisively in 2006 and 2008. Conservatives are looking all around the country and their idea is “Be more conservative”. It’s the electoral equivalent of swimming towards Niagara Falls in order to get towards dry land.

In essence, what you’d get in 2011 if the Republicans have Congress (or in 2013, if the crazy sauce has been passed out and Sarah Palin is in year 1 of her 2 1/4 year Presidency) is a faith-based plan on health care.

Why is it faith-based? because you need a lot of faith to not expect a Republican plan to be a 10 pound can of bad ideas. Only ignoring their record shields one from noticing what they are very likely to do.

Two questions to ask voters this fall

1) Do you want to move forward or backwards on health care in this country?

2) Can you trust Republicans if they win Congress back?

If you want to move this country forward, the last party you want to vote for is the Republican party. If you can’t trust the Republicans to not go crazy, like they did in 1995/1996, 2005, and so on, then don’t give them power.

This is not advanced chemistry here. I hope that the message on our side is direct and on the offensive. Only one side can move forward and deliver on this topic. We know what side that is.

The standings for today: 5 candidates filed in Jeff City and the Royals scored 5 runs against the Reds while the Royal B team scored 2 runs against the Rangers.

Republican Brian Clark of Cleveland filed for Congress in the 4th district, making him the 7th Republican in the field and possibly the most obscure member of this field.

Republican Doug Farnen of Salisbury filed in HD22, a Republican-held seat which is opened by term limits. Despite the Republican incumbent’s narrow victory in 2008 and her history of narrow wins from 2002 to 2006, no Democrat has filed in this district. Really. If a Democrat files, then you never know what could happen here.

Republican Joel Blevins of Independence filed in HD52, a Democratic-held seat opened by term limits. Blevins’ entry sets up an epic Noel v. Joel primary with Republican Noel Torpey (who lost to Paul LeVota twice and ran for a few months and quit in 2008). The winner will face either Robbie Makinen or Chyanne Lockhart Cardarella. The 52nd should be one of the more competitive Democratic open seats in the KC area.

Republican Chris Johnston of Alton filed in HD153, a Republican-held seat opened by term limits. He will face Steve Cookson of Fairdealing in the Republican primary. The Democrat who has filed is Carter County Assessor George Meyers of Ellsinore. The 153rd might be a winnable seat due to his historic sympathies.

The 5th filer is a Democratic candidate for Circuit Judge. Anyways, I think 5 is a good over/under for tomorrow. The weather’s nice and a car/train ride should be enjoyable.

Candidates filed today: 3

Runs scored by the Kansas City Royals in Spring Training: 3

Hm, now that’s a barometer worth following.

Republican Ken Gillespie of Albany filed in HD05. He will be facing former State Senator Glen Klippenstein of Maysville in the Republican Primary. Democrats Judy Wright of Turney and Mike Waltemath of King City have also filed for the seat opened up by the term-limit induced departure of Jim Guest. Clinton County (home county of Wright) has the most voters, but DeKalb County (home county of Klippenstein) has it’s share of voters. Gentry County (home county of Gillespie and Waltemath) has some voters (5K of around 35K voters). This is Waltemath’s fifth candidacy in a row, and I couldn’t blame voters if they went with someone else here.

Also, Republican Paul Curtman filed in HD105 to challenge incumbent Democrat Michael Frame. Republican Sue Entlicher of Bolivar filed in HD133. Entlicher is the second Polk County Republican to file (the other being Cal Coker of Bolivar). The third candidate is John Rummel of Stockton (Cedar County). Polk County has more voters than Cedar County in the district but a split might be helpful to Rummel’s hopes.

I’m not entirely sure if anything will happen with candidate filing tomorrow. If it does, i’ll pass it on sometime tomorrow night. If it doesn’t, it won’t. The over/under for today was hit on the head. The over/under for Monday is 4.

Constitution partier Mike Simmons of New Haven filed for the US Senate, making the Constitution Party US Senate primary a three-way dance and also making the Constitution Party field larger than the Democratic Party field for the US Senate. Simmons will face Jerry Beck of LaMonte and Joe Martellaro of Cuba in the primary. Also, Libertarian Rick Vandeven of Chaffee filed in the 8th Congressional District.

Democrat Amy Hilgemann filed in HD64, a seat held by Rachel Storch and might be an open seat (feel free to confirm or deny the openness of the seat on here or by e-mailing me). Hilgemann is the wife of former state Rep. Bob Hilgemann.

Also, Republican Daniel O’Sullivan filed in HD73. O’Sullivan lost a race for this seat in November 2008, and November 2009. Will he do a hat-trick in November 2010? Probably. Stay tuned. As well, Democrat Bob Rubino of Nixa filed in HD141, a seat opened up by the term limits-induced departure of Jay Wasson.

So the total for today was 5, one under the O/U I gave. The over/under for filers tomorrow is 5. Feel free to liberally bet the under. The areas without Democratic Congressional candidates: CD2 (are all the frequent candidates busy?), CD6, and CD9. Still got 27 days left. But time flies.

Day three of filing produced 7 more filings. Propelling our overall total all the way to 436.

The 7 who filed include two incumbents (Ryan McKenna, D-SD22 and Barney Joe Fisher, R-HD125). Also filing were Libertarian Steve Mosbacher of Manchester in the 2nd Congressional District. Former State Senator John Cauthorn of Mexico filed in HD21 (a district shaped like a giant on a tiny riding lawnmower), a seat opened by the terming out of Republican Steve Hobbs. 2008 Democratic candidate Kelly Schultz is running again in the 21st. Libertarian Teddy Fleck bounces back from his 2008 Lt. Gubernatorial campaign to run in the 140th. Democrat Simon Joe Boyer of Irondale filed in the 152nd. Boyer is probably making his first run since 2002 (unless Simon Joe Boyer and Joe Boyer are different people in Irondale) and the other Democratic candidate for this seat is Shane Van Steenis of Eminence, who also ran in 2002. And a the 7th filing was a Republican filing for Circuit Court Judge.

When it comes to the party candidate gap (233 to 177 now) being hyped by Lloyd Smith, it’s worth keeping in mind that Republicans have 9 candidates to succeed Kit Bond, 8 to succeed Roy Blunt, and close to 40 contested primaries (including 30 for open Republican seats). The fact that there’s 0 Democratic candidates against Todd Akin, Sam Graves or Blaine Luetkemeyer doesn’t hurt the Republican numerical advantage of 25 to 8 in Congressional races.

So, of course they have more candidates, because a lot of Republican seats are open and officeholders are trying to move up the ladder.

The Over/under for the number of Friday filers should be around 10. I think that a few more random people should show up and it’s a Friday. The only big bump in filers I see in the next week or so is when the five Congress members who haven’t filed get the chance to visit Jeff City. As for the state offices, I think there’s only one other Incumbent who hasn’t filed and is probably seeking re-election.