Technology threatened to inflict slow times on the manual election map creation front. But so far since Tuesday, the Missouri Secretary of State’s site hasn’t found a way to make their mapping technology work (or they forgot to reactivate the maps after the traffic subsided).
So here’s where I step in.
This map shows which counties picked the most candidates who won statewide:
11 of 115 counties voted for Romney, Claire McCaskill, Jay Nixon, Peter Kinder, Jason Kander, Clint Zweifel and Chris Koster.
The largest of the counties to pick all 7 winners are Clay and Jefferson Counties. Jefferson County is considered by some to be a weathervane of how statewide elections will play out.
Also notable that Kinder swept 5 traditionally Democratic Southeast Missouri counties (Iron, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot and Reynolds).
Jackson County has two election boards, the Kansas City Board and the Jackson County Board (which reports non-KC results). If we counted the County Board separately, they would be on the 7 for 7 list as well.
So, which counties picked 6 winning candidates and 1 losing candidate?
Six counties picked one losing candidate.
Buchanan and Ste. Genevieve Counties backed St. Joseph native Susan Montee over Peter Kinder. Henry, Shannon and St. Francois Counties backed Shane Schoeller over Jason Kander. Linn County picked Cole McNary over Clint Zweifel.
The 23 counties picking 5 winners and 2 losers either backed Obama and Montee (Boone, Jackson, STL City, STL County) or backed Schoeller and McNary (the rest).
9 counties backed 4 winners and 3 losers. Dave Spence won Cass, Daviess, Gentry, Schuyler, Scotland, Sullivan and Worth Counties. Todd Akin won Monroe County. Ed Martin won Lewis County.
15 counties supported 3 winners and 4 losers almost had diversity as to the successful Democrat they supported. Claire McCaskill won Andrew and Pulaski Counties. Chris Koster won Callaway, Cole, Lincoln, Livingston, Maires, Moniteau, Montgomery, Oregon, Randolph, St. Clair and Vernon Counties.
The other 50 counties backed the entire Republican ticket.
Voters in the St. Louis market went for the entire Democratic ticket. Voters in the Kansas City market went for Romney, and then 6 Missouri Democratic candidates. In head-to-head (D or R) percentages, Claire/Nixon/Zweifel/Koster were over 60% in St. Louis. While Kansas City State Rep Jason Kander won a higher percentage in the St. Louis TV marker than in the Kansas City TV market.
A majority of Springfield market voters went for the Republican candidates. With Romney winning 69% h2h in the market. But Akin winning 54% and Ed Martin winning 52%. 76 thousand Springfield voters voted Romney but not Akin. 52 thousand Springfield voters voted Claire but not Obama.
Columbia’s market picked 6 winners but backed Schoeller.
Cape Girardeau’s markets and Joplin’s markets backed all 7 Republicans. Jay Nixon won 42%h2h in the Joplin market and 45%h2h in Jasper County.
Kirksville and Hannibal were two parts of the state subject to Presidential ads, as both reached Iowa. Kirksville backed Claire and Koster, and Hannibal backed all 7 Republicans.
So the basic maps for the 5 Missouri-level races and the Senate race.
Senate:
Remember 2006 when a lot of coverage and emphasis went on Claire’s focus on outstate? This time around, outstate did pretty well, all things considered. The only way the result could have been more lopsided is if Claire won more counties (instead of just winning 53 of 115 and winning by 15%). The Pulaski County result was surprising, as it seemed like the only Democrat to win that county recently was Ike Skelton. A variety of counties north of the river may have been softened up by the one-two of Akin’s radioactivity and the Farm Bill issue, causing those voters to pick Claire over Akin.
It takes a special kind of terrible campaign/candidate to not win 40% in a Missouri statewide race.
Governor:
The 2008 map which had a horseshoe ring of counties from St. Louis to Springfield to Kansas City could not be reproduced here. Notable that Nixon pulled out a win in Greene County.
Lt. Governor:
Kinder already had spent a bit statewide to win the primary, and Montee didn’t have to spend as much in her primary. The difference between wins and losses involve the Dem losing places they should win in these kinds of elections.
Secretary of State:
Jason Kander put together enough of the usual Democratic coalition of KC, St. Louis and Sympathetic Outstate residents to move away from the recount margin by the time the last precinct reported. So despite the attacks thrown against him (“He likes Obama too much”, “He’s part of a 57 seat Democratic minority that is somehow crushing our hopes and dreams”), he wound up running 4.5% ahead of the President and winning traditionally Democratic outstate areas to get that 1.3% margin.
Treasurer:
Clint Zweifel won 3 counties that Jason Kander lost (Henry, St. Francois and Shannon), and lost one county that Kander won (Linn). Once you get to the Secretary of State/Treasurer level, concern is warranted if the upballot results are not looking as favorable as they could. Despite the difference in years, Clint Zweifel still managed to almost hit his 2008 winning percentage in 2012. Clint’s ads were some of the best statewide ads I had the chance to see this cycle (although Jay’s were good enough to inspire a defamation lawsuit).
Attorney General:
I haven’t done enough reading or research to verify this theory. But I suspect that voters who reside in state capitals sometimes defy their usual habits because they may have heard a little more about the actions that occurred in the capital city. Chris Koster won Cole County and counties all around Cole County. How much of that had to do with his time in Jeff City and how much of that has to do with the end of Ed Martin’s last job in Jeff City? Probably a bit. Koster also won 60 of 115 counties, making him the only Democrat who could claim a majority of the counties this year.
So that’s a look into how the maps looked for the statewide candidates on November 6th.
In the Lieutenant Governor race incumbent Peter Kinder (r) has fired off an attack ad against Susan Montee (D):
Announcer: Susan Montee claims she’s conservative. No way. Here she is at the St. Louis gay pride parade. She’s a real liberal activist. Montee’s pro-abortion. She backs Obamacare. No wonder the NRA opposes her…
Timeout. Uh, there’s a prohibition against abortion and health care reform written somewhere in the 2nd Amendment?
Peter Kinder’s the conservative. He sued to block Obamacare….
…cut taxes three hundred twenty million dollars, delivered the back to school sales tax holiday. Peter Kinder for Lieutenant Governor. It’s the conservative results that count.
Heh. These kind of conservative results? Just asking.
Why does @peterkinder think its bad for @susanmontee to be @ pride parade but ok for campaign contributor AB-InBev to sponsor it? #MOLtGov 5:50 PM – 26 Oct 12
Jackson County Democrats held a chile dinner at the Plumbers and Pipefitters Union Hall in Kansas City on Friday evening. It was an opportunity for a meet and greet and for the crowd to hear statewide candidates speak.
Senator Claire McCaskill (D).
Representative Emanuel Cleaver (D).
Cass County Prosecutor and 4th Congressional District candidate Teresa Hensley (D).
Announcer: Peter Kinder misused tax dollars on his personal lifestyle…staying at luxury hotels.
[329 nights in a luxury hotel on taxpayers’ dollars]
He dropped out of the governor’s race amidst allegations of aggressive behavior towards a stripper.
[Regular at east St. Louis strip clubs, spending $200 a visit]
A career politician, Kinder has been pocketing gifts from lobbyists for twenty years.
[Kinder pockets thousands from lobbyists every year]
Vote for a true fiscal conservative, Susan Montee. As State Auditor she uncovered wasteful spending and saved taxpayers millions. Susan Montee, Lieutenant Governor.
Anyone think this one will air on television and cable?
Today’s the day that October quarterly campaign finance reports are due at the Missouri Ethics Commission. In the Lieutenant Governor race we’re taking a look at the reports for Susan Montee (D), Peter Kinder (r), and, just for kicks, Cynthia Davis (whatever).
1. Total Receipts For This Election Previously Reported $3,989,554.83
2. All Monetary Contributions Received This Period $279,778.00
8. Total All Receipts This Election $4,273,615.60
14. Total Expenditures This Election $2,379,950.13
27. Money On Hand at the close of this reporting period $267,911.03
34. Total Indebtedness at the Close of This Reporting Period $43,086.01
[emphasis added]
You’ve just gotta love those nasty (but true) republican primaries, flushing millions of dollars down the republican campaign consultant industrial complex. The cash on hand is roughly at parity.
1. Total Receipts For This Election Previously Reported $31,913.67
2. All Monetary Contributions Received This Period $5,345.12
8. Total All Receipts This Election $37,298.91
14. Total Expenditures This Election $18,827.93
27. Money On Hand at the close of this reporting period $12,684.89
34. Total Indebtedness at the Close of This Reporting Period $30,000.00
Heh. That’s less than 1% of the total raised by the republican incumbent. You’d think…
Some of the interesting contributions:
CONTRIBUTIONS RECEIVED – SUPPLEMENTAL
MONTEE FOR MISSOURI 10/15/2012
John Schofield 618 N Union St Independence MO 64050-2673 N/A/retired 9/5/2012 $5.00
Clay F. Jordan 620 Hillcrest Dr Knob Noster MO 65336-1529 None 9/10/2012 $25.00
[emphasis added]
Yeah, there are some high dollar (not as high as the republican incumbent) contributions, but there are a significant number of small dollar contributions. Organized labor (working people!) and attorneys have kicked in to Susan Montee’s campaign, too.
CONTRIBUTIONS RECEIVED – SUPPLEMENTAL
FRIENDS OF PETER KINDER 10/15/2012
Kansas City Chiefs One Arrowhead Drive Kansas City MO 64129 9/25/2012 $2,500.00
[emphasis added]
1-5, folks, 1-5. There are a lot of committee and corporate contributions and a relatively small number of small dollar contributions.
CONTRIBUTIONS AND LOANS RECEIVED
ELECT CYNTHIA DAVIS 10/5/2012
12. TOTAL ANONYMOUS CONTRIBUTIONS RECEIVED FROM PERSON GIVING $25 OR LESS $865.12
13. TOTAL MONETARY CONTRIBUTIONS RECEIVED FROM PERSONS GIVING $100 OR LESS $1,855.00
14. TOTAL IN-KIND CONTRIBUTIONS RECEIVED FROM PERSONS (NOT COMMITTEES) GIVING $100 OR LESS $40.12
CONTRIBUTIONS RECEIVED – SUPPLEMENTAL
James Clymer 301 Letort Road Millersville PA 17551 Self- employed — Attorney 9/28/2012 $1,000.00
James Jerri White 205 Casey Drive Rosseville TN 38066 Retired 9/22/2012 $275.00
[emphasis added]
Some people in Pennsylvania and Tennessee must have a soft spot in their checkbooks for lost political causes.
Some of the expenditures:
ITEMIZED EXPENDITURES OVER $100 SUPPLEMENTAL FORM
MONTEE FOR MISSOURI 10/15/2012
Baughman Company 1782 Union Street San Francisco CA 94123 9/17/2012 Printing and Copying $7,500.00
The Competence Group 1248 West Altgeld Chicago IL 60614 9/12/2012 Fundraising Expense $6,500.00
Berrick Partnership 2914 Milton Blvd Saint Louis MO 63104-1636 9/17/2012 Research $2,500.00
Kilt Boy Productions PO Box 9216 Peoria IL 61612-9216 9/2/2012 Communications & Video Production $1,500.00
Kilt Boy Productions PO Box 9216 Peoria IL 61612-9216 9/14/2012 Communications & Video Production $1,500.00
Lane Studios 1900 Mersington Court Kansas City MO 64127 9/26/2012 Advertising $2,710.00
Maria Ponce Photography 4553 North Wolcott Ave Chicago IL 60640 9/14/2012 Advertising $2,304.91
Ninth Street Tactics LLC 1625 S 9th St. Saint Louis MO 63104 9/6/2012 Research $2,500.00
[emphasis added]
We like research. We do it all the time.
ITEMIZED EXPENDITURES OVER $100 SUPPLEMENTAL FORM
FRIENDS OF PETER KINDER 10/15/2012
Axiom Strategies 1251 Northwest Briarcliff Pkwy #85 Kansas City MO 64116 9/13/2012 Polling $1,500.00
David Barklage 7925 Clayton RD Ste 200 St Louis MO 63105 9/15/2012 Consultant $2,500.00
636 Media 429 N Main St Ofallon MO 63366 9/25/2012 Advertsing $2,000.00
Capitol Consulting PO Box 931 Jefferson City MO 65102 9/15/2012 Fundrasier $3,500.00
Lindsey Kolb 1021 E Harrison St Room 804A Springfield MO 65807 9/17/2012 Research $300.00
Jaret Jensen 1501 S Independence Harrisonville MO 64701 9/25/2012 Research $2,500.00
Susan Montee, the Democratic party candidate for Lieutenant Governor, just released her first general election campaign television ad:
Announcer: Susan Montee.
Susan Montee (D): My father was a Marine, missing in action in Vietnam. My childhood shaped me to be an advocate for veterans and their families, the way our Lieutenant Governor is supposed to be. When they’re done with their service our soldiers should know they a home, quality health care, and a job. Stand with me and I will make sure our veterans get everything they earn and deserve.
Announcer: Susan Montee, Lieutenant Governor.
Now, we just have wait for Peter Kinder’s (r) ad assault to start. When the republican sugar daddies come through with the campaign contribution cash.
Information Reported On: 2012 – 30 Day After Primary Election-8/7/2012
Beginning Money on Hand $35,159.84
Ending Money On Hand $18,260.36
[emphasis added]
Ouch. That was an expensive primary.
Meanwhile:
C111177 09/11/2012 MONTEE FOR MISSOURI I.B.E.W. Educational Committee 900 Seventh Street, N.W. Washington DC 20001 9/11/2012 $10,000.00
C111177 09/21/2012 MONTEE FOR MISSOURI Hoisting Engineers Local 513 Political & Educational Fund 3449 Hollenberg Dr. Bridgeton MO 63044 9/21/2012 $10,000.00
Susan Montee (D), the Democratic Party nominee for Lieutenant Governor, released a campaign video today of her campaign swing through Northeast Missouri last Saturday:
