Technology threatened to inflict slow times on the manual election map creation front. But so far since Tuesday, the Missouri Secretary of State’s site hasn’t found a way to make their mapping technology work (or they forgot to reactivate the maps after the traffic subsided).

So here’s where I step in.

This map shows which counties picked the most candidates who won statewide:

11 of 115 counties voted for Romney, Claire McCaskill, Jay Nixon, Peter Kinder, Jason Kander, Clint Zweifel and Chris Koster.

The largest of the counties to pick all 7 winners are Clay and Jefferson Counties. Jefferson County is considered by some to be a weathervane of how statewide elections will play out.

Also notable that Kinder swept 5 traditionally Democratic Southeast Missouri counties (Iron, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot and Reynolds).

Jackson County has two election boards, the Kansas City Board and the Jackson County Board (which reports non-KC results). If we counted the County Board separately, they would be on the 7 for 7 list as well.

So, which counties picked 6 winning candidates and 1 losing candidate?

Six counties picked one losing candidate.

Buchanan and Ste. Genevieve Counties backed St. Joseph native Susan Montee over Peter Kinder. Henry, Shannon and St. Francois Counties backed Shane Schoeller over Jason Kander. Linn County picked Cole McNary over Clint Zweifel.

The 23 counties picking 5 winners and 2 losers either backed Obama and Montee (Boone, Jackson, STL City, STL County) or backed Schoeller and McNary (the rest).

9 counties backed 4 winners and 3 losers. Dave Spence won Cass, Daviess, Gentry, Schuyler, Scotland, Sullivan and Worth Counties. Todd Akin won Monroe County. Ed Martin won Lewis County.

15 counties supported 3 winners and 4 losers almost had diversity as to the successful Democrat they supported. Claire McCaskill won Andrew and Pulaski Counties. Chris Koster won Callaway, Cole, Lincoln, Livingston, Maires, Moniteau, Montgomery, Oregon, Randolph, St. Clair and Vernon Counties.

The other 50 counties backed the entire Republican ticket.

As for media markets, for the sake of reference:

Voters in the St. Louis market went for the entire Democratic ticket. Voters in the Kansas City market went for Romney, and then 6 Missouri Democratic candidates. In head-to-head (D or R) percentages, Claire/Nixon/Zweifel/Koster were over 60% in St. Louis. While Kansas City State Rep Jason Kander won a higher percentage in the St. Louis TV marker than in the Kansas City TV market.

A majority of Springfield market voters went for the Republican candidates. With Romney winning 69% h2h in the market. But Akin winning 54% and Ed Martin winning 52%. 76 thousand Springfield voters voted Romney but not Akin. 52 thousand Springfield voters voted Claire but not Obama.

Columbia’s market picked 6 winners but backed Schoeller.

Cape Girardeau’s markets and Joplin’s markets backed all 7 Republicans. Jay Nixon won 42%h2h in the Joplin market and 45%h2h in Jasper County.

Kirksville and Hannibal were two parts of the state subject to Presidential ads, as both reached Iowa. Kirksville backed Claire and Koster, and Hannibal backed all 7 Republicans.

So the basic maps for the 5 Missouri-level races and the Senate race.

Senate:

Remember 2006 when a lot of coverage and emphasis went on Claire’s focus on outstate? This time around, outstate did pretty well, all things considered. The only way the result could have been more lopsided is if Claire won more counties (instead of just winning 53 of 115 and winning by 15%). The Pulaski County result was surprising, as it seemed like the only Democrat to win that county recently was Ike Skelton. A variety of counties north of the river may have been softened up by the one-two of Akin’s radioactivity and the Farm Bill issue, causing those voters to pick Claire over Akin.

It takes a special kind of terrible campaign/candidate to not win 40% in a Missouri statewide race.

Governor:

The 2008 map which had a horseshoe ring of counties from St. Louis to Springfield to Kansas City could not be reproduced here. Notable that Nixon pulled out a win in Greene County.

Lt. Governor:

Kinder already had spent a bit statewide to win the primary, and Montee didn’t have to spend as much in her primary. The difference between wins and losses involve the Dem losing places they should win in these kinds of elections.

Secretary of State:

Jason Kander put together enough of the usual Democratic coalition of KC, St. Louis and Sympathetic Outstate residents to move away from the recount margin by the time the last precinct reported. So despite the attacks thrown against him (“He likes Obama too much”, “He’s part of a 57 seat Democratic minority that is somehow crushing our hopes and dreams”), he wound up running 4.5% ahead of the President and winning traditionally Democratic outstate areas to get that 1.3% margin.

Treasurer:

Clint Zweifel won 3 counties that Jason Kander lost (Henry, St. Francois and Shannon), and lost one county that Kander won (Linn). Once you get to the Secretary of State/Treasurer level, concern is warranted if the upballot results are not looking as favorable as they could. Despite the difference in years, Clint Zweifel still managed to almost hit his 2008 winning percentage in 2012. Clint’s ads were some of the best statewide ads I had the chance to see this cycle (although Jay’s were good enough to inspire a defamation lawsuit).

Attorney General:

I haven’t done enough reading or research to verify this theory. But I suspect that voters who reside in state capitals sometimes defy their usual habits because they may have heard a little more about the actions that occurred in the capital city. Chris Koster won Cole County and counties all around Cole County. How much of that had to do with his time in Jeff City and how much of that has to do with the end of Ed Martin’s last job in Jeff City? Probably a bit. Koster also won 60 of 115 counties, making him the only Democrat who could claim a majority of the counties this year.

So that’s a look into how the maps looked for the statewide candidates on November 6th.

The latest from Public Policy Polling says: Claire 45, Akin 44

So, the changes from last week:

Akin’s support with Rs up from 71% to 78%, Akin’s support with Ds up from 8% to 15%, Akin’s support with Independents down from 45% to 38%.

McCaskill’s overall approval down 1%, down 7% with Dems, down 5% with Reps and up 2% with Independents.

Yes, this doesn’t add up, because this poll was 33D/35R/32I, up from 30D/39R/32I. Nice to see that the likely voter universe has changed a bit in the last week. (Their likely voter model may still hang up on you if you didn’t vote in 2010)

But in the spirit of fairness, I hope for a poll next week conducted over days 1 and 2 of the DNC.

Full results

August 20th flash poll results in parentheses

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve 39% (42%)

Disapprove 55% (55%)

Not sure 5% (3%)

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Favorable 51% (48%)

Unfavorable 43% (45%)

Not sure 6% (6%)

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama 41% (42%)

Mitt Romney 53% (52%)

Undecided 6% (7%)

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?

Approve 40% (41%)

Disapprove 55% (53%)

Not sure 5% (5%)

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Todd Akin?

Favorable 33% (24%)

Unfavorable 56% (58%)

Not sure 11% (18%)

Q6 The candidates for Senate this fall are Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Todd Akin. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Claire McCaskill 45% (43%)

Todd Akin 44% (44%)

Undecided 11% (13%)

Q7 Do you think Todd Akin should withdraw from the US Senate race, or not?

He should withdraw 37%

He should not 54%

Not sure 9%

Q8 Do you accept Todd Akin’s apology for the comments he made last week, or not?

Accept his apology 53%

Do not 40%

Not sure 7%

Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain 49% (49%)

Barack Obama 44% (44%)

Someone else/Don’t remember 7% (7%)

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat

conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal 8% (9%)

Somewhat liberal 12% (16%)

Moderate 33% (27%)

Somewhat conservative 29% (29%)

Very conservative 19% (19%)

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman 55% (53%)

Man 45% (47%)

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat 33% (30%)

Republican 35% (39%)

Independent/Other 32% (32%)

Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American, press 2. If other, press 3.

White 82% (74%)

African-American 10% (-)

Other 8% (26%)

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are

older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29: 18% (12%)

30 to 45: 25% (22%)

46 to 65: 37% (46%)

Older than 65: 20% (20%)

The topline numbers

Akin 44, McCaskill 43

The fav/unfav for Akin is 24% favorable and 58% unfavorable. Compared to 41% job approval for McCaskill and 53% disapproval.

Does a poll of 500 people taken over 3 hours of a Monday Night mean much more than a Leroy Neiman painting?

We’ll see. For one thing, Public Policy didn’t poll an Akin/McCaskill matchup for the last 3 months before tonight. So we don’t know if the universe was like SurveyUSA’s universe (Akin +10) or Rasmussen’s (Akin +3).

So let’s look at the bits and pieces

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?

Approve 41%

Disapprove 53%

Not sure 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Todd Akin?

Favorable 24%

Unfavorable 58%

Not sure 18%

Q3 The candidates for Senate this fall are Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Todd Akin. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Claire McCaskill 43%

Todd Akin 44%

Undecided 13%

Q4 Do you think Todd Akin’s recent comments over the weekend about rape were appropriate or inappropriate, or are you not familiar with what Akin said about rape?

Appropriate 9%

Inappropriate 75%

Not familiar with Akin’s comments 16%

Q5 This past weekend, Todd Akin said that abortion should be illegal even in the case of rape, because, “If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down.” Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with Akin’s comments?

Strongly agree 6%

Somewhat agree 12%

Somewhat disagree 14%

Strongly disagree 65%

Not sure 4%

Q6 Generally speaking, do you identify as prochoice or pro-life on the issue of abortion?

Pro-choice 40%

Pro-life 52%

Not sure 7%

Q7 Which of the following statements comes closest to your position on abortion: it should be legal in all cases; it should generally be  illegal with exception for rape, incest, or protection of the mother’s life; or should it be completely illegal?

Legal in all cases 33%

Illegal except for rape, incest, or the mother’s life 47%

Completely illegal 14%

Not sure 5%

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain 49%

Barack Obama 44%

Someone else/Don’t remember 7%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal 9%

Somewhat liberal 16%

Moderate 27%

Somewhat conservative 29%

Very conservative 19%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman 53%

Man 47%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat 30%

Republican 39%

Independent/Other 32%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.

White 74%

Other 26%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29- 12%

30 to 45- 22%

46 to 65- 46%

Older than 65- 20%

So the splits!

To be frank… the partisan split on Q11 is based on some sort of alternate universe. The sample in May was 35D/33R/33I. The 2010 exit polls were 34D/37R/28I. The reason why one night polls are not typically done is because they do not produce results that can be passed off as reality in regards to certain characteristics of humanity.

Or you can believe that the demographics of MO drastically changed in 3 months.

But take the partisan splits, which are

Dems: Claire, 88-8

Reps: Akin, 71-10

Indys: Akin, 45-41

You put them with the party samples used in May, and Claire leads by 6% (47-41). You put them with the 2010 exit polls, and Claire leads by 3% (45-42). You put them with the 2008 exit polls (to be extreme) and she leads by 10%. Claire also leads by 6% (47-41) if you use SurveyUSA’s sample from a poll that Akin led by 11%.

Back in May, Claire led by 2 with women and was behind by 2 with men. The PPP says it’s +10 Claire with Women and +14 Akin with men.

And PPP has Claire up with every age-demo except 30-45 (where she trails 52-33)

I’d comment on the 18-29 results (which were the most pro-Claire but the least pro-Choice) but the sample was 60 people at home on a Monday Night.

How about we wait for a more substantive poll on the matter? But if you’re Todd Akin looking for some justification to continue your increasingly doomed campaign, you can use this flawed Republican-heavy poll to make your case to stick around.

Pictured: “Your 2012 Constitution Party team for Governor and Lt. Governor?”

The best parts of filing month, the first day and the last two days when the business really picks up. And the business was pretty brisk in Jeff City today, so here’s all the candidates who filed today

The Governor’s race didn’t see a new candidate, but a candidate switch parties. Leonard Steinman of Jeff City switched from losing to Jay Nixon in the Democratic Party to losing to Jay Nixon in the General Election by filing in the Constitution Party primary. Ellington resident Clay Thunderhawk filed to oppose Jay Nixon in the Democratic primary near the end of business on Tuesday. Filing for Governor extends to Friday.

Speaking of switches, Bill Haas switched to his third different race in this filing season. Haas started in the 2nd Congressional District, switched to the 5th State Senate District, and switched today to running for Lt. Governor. Haas was the 8th Democrat to file for the office. The 7th Democrat was former Kansas City State Rep Jackie Townes McGee (who now resides in Hayti, Missouri, where she was raised).

Justin Harter of Columbia filed with the Constitution Party for Secretary of State. Dave Browning filed with the Libertarian Party for Attorney General.

Democrat Glenn Koenen of Valley Park filed for Congress in the 2nd District. Koenen was an executive director at Circle of Concern Food Pantry for 15 years before stepping down earlier this month.

In the 4th district, Bernie Mowinski of Sunrise Beach filed to oppose Vicky Hartzler in the Republican Primary. Mowinski has run for the State House five times since 1998. Libertarian Thomas Holbrook filed to oppose Herschel Young in the Libertarian primary. Greg Cowan filed with the Constitution Party. Holbrook and Cowan ran for Congress in 2010, with Holbrook losing in a primary.

Warrensburg Libertarian Randy Langkraehr kept his streak of running for Congress in the 5th district alive. Despite any suspicions to the contrary, the 5th only goes to Marshall, not to Warrensburg. Democrats Ronald William Harris and W. A.”Bill” Hedge of St. Joseph filed in the 6th District. Republican Christopher Ryan of Liberty filed to oppose Sam Graves.

And to the state legislature!

State Rep. Scott Sifton withdrew from seeking re-election to run for the State Senate in the 1st District, in a field with Democrats Sue Schoemehl and Michael Vogt, and Republican incumbent Jim Lembke.

Republican Terry Varner of Farmington filed for the Senate in the 3rd district. He will oppose Gary Romine of Farmington. The winner of that primary will face State Rep. Joe Fallert of Ste. Genevieve.

Jackson County Legislator Crystal Williams filed to oppose State Rep. Jason Holsman in the 7th Senate district.

Libertarian Steven Hedrick filed in the 21st State Senate District. Meanwhile in the new 31st, Midway School Board member Charlie Burton of Drexel filed for the Democrats while Dave Morris of Peculiar filed for the Republicans.

Now to the State House

Former State Rep. Rebecca McClanahan filed in the 3rd District. She will have to make it past Kirksville Mayor Richard Detweiler for the opportunity to challenge Freshman State Rep Zack Wyatt.

Republican Josh Hurlbert of Smithville filed in the 12th House District. He will face Ken Wilson of Smithville in the Republican primary. No Democrat filed in this district. But Democrat Eric Pendell of Kansas City filed in the 14th House District to challenge Ron Schieber.

Democrat Henry Carner of Kansas City filed to challenge incumbent Brandon Ellington in the 22nd District Democratic Primary.

Joshua Judy and Sally Miller filed in the 25th District to see which one of them will face the winner of the Jeremy LaFaver/Chris Miller Democratic primary.

Democrat Dale Walkup of Blue Springs filed in the 31st district, joining Syed Asif of Lake Lotawana in the Democratic field. The Republican field is incumbent Sheila Solon and Chris Lievsay. Democrat Ron Harvey of Lees Summit filed in the new 33rd district to challenge Republican Donna Pfautsch in a new open seat.

Democrat Chris Moreno and Republican Nola Wood filed in the 37th district. Moreno, who ran v. Will Kraus in 2006, will face Joe Runions of Grandview and former State Rep. Mike Sager of Lees Summit.

Democrat Kevin Morgan of Excelsior Springs filed to challenge Freshman Republican T.J. Berry of Kearney in the 38th district.

Former State Senator (in Springfield) Dennis Smith filed in the 44th House district to face former Libertarian Chris Dwyer, former Democrat Mike Becker and former something Caleb Rowden. The winner of that primary faces former State Senator Ken Jacob. Also in Columbia, Republican Fred Berry filed to oppose Democratic Incumbent Stephen Webber.

Democrat Ron Monnig of Slater filed in the 48th district. He will face the winner of the Dave Muntzel/Stephanie Fuemmeler primary. Democrat Thomas Minihan of Jefferson City filed in the 60th district to challenge Freshman Republican Jay Barnes.

Republican Rick Stokes of Wentzville filed in the 64th district to challenge Robert Cornejo in the primary. The winner will face another new filer, former State Rep. Wayne Henke of Troy.

Democrat Tony Weaver of Florissant filed to face incumbent Steve Webb in the 67th District Primary. Republican Glen Lindemann of Florissant filed to oppose Margo McNeil in the 69th district. Republican Tyler Holyfield filed to oppose St. Charles Republican Party chairman Eugene Dokes in the 70th district. The winner faces Bill Otto of St. Charles.

Democrat Paul Berry of Maryland Heights and Republican Patrick Brennan of St. Louis filed in the 72nd district. Berry faces incumbents Eileen Grant McGeoghegan and Mary Nichols in the Democratic Primary.

Democrat Michael Butler filed in the 79th to face Martin Casas. Democrat Mike Owens filed in the 84th to create a four-way field with incumbent Karla May, former State Rep Hope Whitehead and Samir Mehta. Republican Linda Mello filed in the 89th district to challenge John Diehl.

Democrat Deb Lavender filed in the 90th district to face off with Kirkswood Republican Rick Stream.

Democrat Bill Pinkston of St. Louis County filed in the 99th District to likely face Andrew Koenig in November. Koenig still has a primary challenge to get past (vs Richard La Violette). Republican Ed Rowles of Chesterfield filed to face incumbent Don Gosen in the 101st district primary.

Democrat Terry Lesinski of St. Peters filed to face Republican incumbent Kathie Conway in the 104th. Democrat Debbie Bixler of St. Charles filed to probably face Republican incumbent Mark Parkinson in the 105th. Parkinson drew a primary from a less notable Jason Smith. Tom Fann of St. Peters filed to face Chrissy Sommer (Sommer is facing a primary as well) in the 106th district. Democrat Rod Hoffman of St. Peters filed to face the winner of a Ron Hicks/AC Dienoff primary (which is probably gonna be Hicks).

Republican Ian McFarland filed in the 111th to face a primary v. Derrick Good. The winner faces former State Rep Michael Frame. Daniel James of Imperial filed to face Dean Asbury in the 112th. The Republican nominee is still likely to be Paul Wieland. Apologies to Avery Fortenberry.

The Constitution Party got a confused candidate in Richard Hoxsey of Butler, who filed in the new 120th but may have intended to file in another district (the current 120th includes parts of Bates County).

Democrat Bart Ziegenhorn of Sikeston filed to force a primary v. retired High School Teacher Mike Marsh for the 148th district. The winner faces the winner of the Holly Rehder/Josh Bill primary.

2008 winner of America’s Got Talent Neal Boyd will be testing his political talent this summer as he filed as a Republican to face incumbent Democrat Steve Hodges in the Bootheel 149th district.

Democrat Ryan William Holder of Advance filed in the 151st district. Holder ran for the seat in 2004, losing in the Democratic Primary to Bryce Wooley.

The Constitution Party got a State House ca
ndidate who filed in the right district as Sue Beck of Shell Knob filed in the 158th district. She will face the winner of a Scott Fitzpatrick/Mike Bennett/Frank Washburn Republican primary.

So, the 2002/2010 official scores for the districts with filing activity

SD1: 55/45D

SD3: 56/44D

SD7: 71/29D

SD21: 55/45D

SD31: 54/46R

HD003: 60/40R

HD012: 56/44R (no Dems)

HD014: 51/49D

HD022: 92/8D (no Reps)

HD025: 72/28D

HD031: 58/42R

HD033: 56/44R

HD037: 64/36D

HD038: 55/45R

HD044: 53/47D

HD046: 56/44D

HD048: 50/50

HD060: 53.5/46.5R

HD064: 54/46R

HD067: 80.5/19.5D (no Reps)

HD069: 65/35D

HD070: 50/50

HD072: 66/34D

HD079: 90/10D (no Reps)

HD084: 89.5/10.5D (no Reps)

HD089: 65/35R (no Dems)

HD090: 52/48R

HD099: 57/43R

HD101: 74/26R

HD104: 55/45R

HD105: 57/43R

HD106: 52/48R

HD107: 55/45R

HD111: 57/43D

HD112: 56/44D

HD120: 59/41R

HD148: 62/38R

HD149: 50/50

HD151: 64/36R

HD158: 70/30R

So the Republicans have candidates in 134 districts. The Democrats have candidates in 110 districts. Only 81 districts have a Democrat v. Republican race, despite the whole redistricting year thing.

Filing is still open until Friday for Governor, the State Senate (Districts 5 and 7), and the State House (Districts 49, 93, and 112).

Here’s the top 25 House Races, districts with a Republican incumbent or a Dem v. Republican match up and a the official 2002/2010 rating of less than 10% in favor of either side. Districts ranked in no particular order

HD005: Lindell Shumake (R-inc) v. Tom Shively (D-inc)

HD014: Ron Schieber (R-inc) v. Eric Pendell (D)

HD015: Kevin Corlew (R) v. Jon Carpenter, Shon Adamson, or Carol Suter

HD020: Brent Lasater (R-inc) v. John Mayfield (D)

HD029: Noel Torpey (R-inc) v. John Sutton (D)

HD039: Joe Don McGaugh (R) v. Will Talbert (D)

HD040: Paul Quinn (D-inc) v. John Kallash or Jim Hansen

HD041: Ed Schieffer (D-inc) v. Beverly Steiniger (R)

HD043: Jay Hougton (R-inc) v. Ed Lockwood (D)

HD044: Ken Jacob (D) v. Caleb Rowden, Mike Becker, Chris Dwyer or Dennis Smith

HD047: Darrel Hansen (R) v. Nancy Copenhaver or John Wright

HD048: Ron Monnig (D) v. Dave Muntzel or Stephanie Fuemmeler

HD053: Glen Kolkmeyer (R) v. Holmes Osborne (D)

HD057: Wanda Brown (R-inc) v. Don Bullock (D)

HD070: Bill Otto (D) v. Eugene Dokes or Tyler Holyfield

HD090: Rick Stream (R-inc) v. Deb Lavender (D)

HD094: Cloria Brown (R-inc/probably) v. Vicki Englund (D)

HD095: Marsha Haefner (R-inc) v. Joe Zelle (D)

HD097: John McCaherty (R-inc) v. Martin Sam Komo (D)

HD108: Chrissy Sommer (R-inc) v. Tom Fann (D)

HD112: Paul Wieland (R-inc/probably) v. Dean Asbury (D) or Daniel James (D)

HD132: Melissa Leach (R-inc) v. Charlie Norr (D)

HD144: Paul Fitzwater (R-inc) v. Michael Jackson (D)

HD149: Steve Hodges (D-inc) v. Neal Boyd (R)

HD150: Kent Hampton (R-inc) v. Tom Todd (D)

Also receiving votes (the next 6 in both directions): Denny Hoskins (R-inc) v. Nancy Maxwell (D) (HD54), Lincoln Hough (R-inc) v. Casey Clark (D) (HD135), Jeanne Kirkton (D-inc) v. Elizabeth Deal (R) (HD91) and Genise Montecillo (D-inc) v. Al Faulitsch (R) (HD92). All apologies to Wayne Henke, Kevin Morgan, and Republicans running in 60% Democratic districts.

As for the State Senate, the top races are..

SD1: Lembke (R-inc) v. Dem (Sue Schoemehl, Michael Vogt or Scott Sifton)

SD3: Fallert (D) v. Rep (Gary Romine or Terry Varner)

SD19: Schaefer (R-inc) v. Mary Still (D)

SD25: Terry Swinger (D) v. Rep (Billy Pat Wright or Doug Libla)

and i’ll leave the 5th spot for the primaries due to a variety of uncontested races remaining for the Senate.

So, how does it look?

“Second to last day popular day to file. Folks don’t want to tempt fate by planning on the last day and then their car won’t start.” – Dave Drebes

Filing Month is wrapping up, with the last day of filing being tomorrow (Tuesday! Tuesday! Tuesday!). So traffic picked up slightly on the 2nd to last day of filing.

So here’s a report of the activity today.

Robert “Bob” Poole (R-Macon) and Hector Maldonado (R-Sullivan) filed for the US Senate. Maldonado ran for the Senate in 2010, finishing 5th of 9th in the Republican primary. Jonathan Dine (LP-Riverside) also filed today, making his second straight bid for the Senate.

Fred Sauer (R-St. Louis) of the Missouri Roundtable for Life filed for Governor today, presumably due to the lack of anti-cloning credentials displayed by Dave Spence and Bill Randles and in opposition to Jay Nixon’s secret plan to clone himself and send his clone army to run in Republican districts.

Robb Cunningham (LP-St. Louis) filed for the 1st District, making his 4th straight Congressional candidacy.

Eric Mayer (D-Camdenton) filed in the 3rd District. Mayer unsuccessfully ran for Camden County Presiding Commissioner in 2010.

Herschel Young (???-Harrisonville) filed as a Libertarian, but you already read that earlier, didn’t you?

Mike Moon (R-Springfield) filed to face Billy Long in the 7th District. Moon finished with 4% in a 6th place finish for the same seat in 2010. Kevin Craig (LP-Powersite) also filed for his 5th straight Congressional bid.

And the Missouri General Assembly

In the State Senate: Jacquelyn Thomas (R-Florissant) filed in the 13th and ElGene Ver Dught (D-Higginsville) filed in the 21st. Ver Dught is an attorney and mediator. Republican Incumbent David Pearce and Mike McGhee are facing off in the 21st. Reddit Hudson and Gina Walsh are facing each other in the 13th.

In the State House:

2010 candidate Tim Remole (R-Excelo) filed for a second bid in the recently reopened 6th district. The 6th is a Macon/Randolph/Linn County district that was Randy Asbury’s choice for a new district until realizing the effects of moving his family north into the district. The Republican primary in the 6th has 4 candidates, Ron Gillett of Moberly, Tony Askew of Atlanta, Alan Wyatt of Macon, and Tim Remole. Democrat Diana Scott of La Plata filed last week.

Patrick Riehle (D-Raytown) filed in the 28th district to challenge incumbent Tom McDonald (D-Independence), who is moving south to represent a district that overlaps with the southern half of the current 49th district.

John Sutton (D-Independence) filed in the 29th district to challenge freshman Republican Noel Torpey. Sutton is a High School Teacher at Van Horn High School in Independence. The 29th is a fusion of parts of the current 52nd (which Torpey won in 2010) and the 49th (which is the bluer part of the 29th).

Darrel Hansen (R-Clark) filed in the 47th district to face the winner of the Nancy Copenhaver/John Wright Democratic primary. Machinist Donald Long (D-Harrisonville) filed to face Freshman Republican Rick Brattin in the 55th. Auctioneer Don Bullock (D-Windsor) filed to face Freshman Republican Wanda Brown in the 57th.

Former one-term Republican Steve Henderson of Versailles filed to create a 3 man primary in the 58th. Henderson served a term from 2001 to 2003 before losing a primary after his county was split in two. Attorney Vonnieta E. Trickey (D-Russellville) filed to challenge freshman Republican Mike Bernskoetter of Jeff City. Janine Steck (LP-Jeff City) is also running in the new 59th district.

Libertarian John Alsup of St. Charles filed in the new 65th to challenge Anne Zerr. Former 2006 House/2008 Senate candidate Jim Trout filed in the new 83rd district to face off with Gina Mitten. No Republicans have filed in the 83rd. Al Faulitsch (R-STL) filed in the new 92nd to face Genise Montecillo. Tony Leech (R-STL) filed to face the winner of a Scott Sifton/Joe Montecillo primary.

Chuck Brodell (D-Imperial) withdrew in the 112th and was replaced by Dean Asbury (D-Arnold). Asbury will probably face Paul Wieland (R-Imperial) unless there’s a surge of support for Avery Fortenberry.

Libertarian Bill Boone of Springfield filed in the 137th district. Ted Sheppard (R-Cabool) filed in the Texas County centered 142nd to face Don Bordwell (R-Plato), Chris Purvis (R-Houston, and Robert Ross (R-Eunice). Finally we see which Texas County city is the most powerful. Democrat R. A. Pendergrass of Bakersfield filed in the Howell County centered 154th. He will face the winner of a Shawn Rhoads/Kathleen Hensley/Stan Watson primary (all from West Plains). Pendergrass is a Missouri States-West Plains facility member who lost a bid for the State Senate to Chuck Purgason in 2004.

Also, Jane Cunningham withdrew from her bid to be a 7th Senate district candidate after finding that they weren’t gonna give her a district. Travis Fitzwater withdrew from running in the 49th district after finding that Jeanie Riddle didn’t have a Senate District to run in for this election.

The official 02/10 stats on the districts with candidate activity:

SD13: 77.5/22.5D

SD21: 55/45D

HD006: 56/44R

HD029: 60/40D

HD047: 50/50

HD055: 57.5/42.5R

HD057: 52/48R

HD058: 61/39R

HD059: 61/39R

HD065: 54/46R (no Dem filed)

HD083: 65/35D (no Rep filed)

HD092: 54/46D

HD093: 62/38D

HD112: 56/44D

HD137: 65/35R (no Dem filed)

HD142: 61/39R (no Dem filed)

HD154: 68/32R

After today’s filing, Republicans have candidates in 128 districts and Democrats have candidates in 98 districts.

Using the 02/10 scale, the 10 bluest districts without a Dem candidate are

HD11 (South Buchanan/North Platte, Galen Higdon): 53/47D

HD14 (Platte County, Ron Schieber): 51/49D

HD48 (Boonville, assorted counties, open seat): 50/50

HD90 (Kirkwood, Rick Stream): 52/48R

HD106 (St. Charles, Chrissy Sommer): 52/48R

HD119 (Franklin County, Dave Hinson): 53/47R

HD60 (Jeff City, Jay Barnes): 53.5/46.5R

HD35 (Lee’s Summit/Parts of KC, Gary Cross): 54/46R

HD64 (St. Charles/Part of Lincoln, open seat): 54/46R

HD65 (St. Charles, Ann Zerr): 54/46R

So it’s quite a few light-red districts to pick from there. There’s also the 116th (Ste. Genevieve/St. Francois/Perryville) and 126th (Bates/Vernon) which are bluer districts than the Shively/Shumake battle in the new 5th.

The reddest districts without a Republican are HD149 (Steve Hodges, 50/50) and HD117 (Linda Black, 52.5/47.5D). Both of which are Dems who defeated Republican opponents in 2010.

Democrats have a candidate in all 46 districts where they top 55%, compared to 14 Republicans in those districts.

There are 29 Democratic candidates in the 45 districts where neither party has an advantage of 10% or more. 42 Republicans are running in those districts.

Democrats have 23 candidates in the 72 districts with a +10R 02/10 spread.

So for all unfiled candidates with functional cars, tomorrow is the big day. And maybe there’s a day or two more if incumbents randomly drop out tomorrow and extend filing for a seat or two.

You can follow the filing here. For best results in finding new candidates on Monday/Tuesday, just do a text search for the current date.

There are two days left in candidate filing, and as with anything involving candidates and possible candidates, there will be more candidates filing on Monday and Tuesday. So here’s a dry journey of the races without a filed major party candidate.

Blaine Luetkemeyer gets a new district number and a new district shape (the new 3rd looks like a worm attempting to eat St. Louis), but Blaine doesn’t have a Democratic opponent for the 3rd. Luetkemeyer became the first major party candidate to get a free pass from the other major party since Bill Clay in 1970 back in 2010, (edit: so a Dem not running v. him in 2012 would make it two elections in a row). Libertarian Steven Wilson is seeking to oppose Luetkemeyer though.

The other 7 districts are contested by both parties. The only major party candidates currently unopposed in their primary are Luetkemeyer, Teresa Hensley/Vicky Hartzler in the 4th, Emanuel Cleaver in the 5th and Jim Evans (D-Republic) in the 7th.

Under the fold, the State Senate and the State House!

Now in the State Senate, the Republicans don’t have a candidate in the 5th, 9th, 11th, and 13th. None of which is a huge surprise. The Republicans still have Jane Cunningham filed in the 7th despite the fact that the 7th moved cross-state to Kansas City. So might as well count that as a “seat with no major party candidate filed)

As for the Democrats. Well. No candidate in the 15th (59/41R), 21st (55/45D), 23rd (56/44R), 27th (66/34R), 29th (70/30R), 31st (54/46R), or 33rd (66/34R). So that’s 7 of 17 seats. In 2008, only one of those seats was uncontested (the 29th). The 02/10 numbers are not perfect (because they count uncontested state house races, and inflates the results from places like the 21st). But it’s a mix of areas that at least drew a candidate or two, even against incumbent Senators.

The House has Republicans in 125 seats and Democrats in 93 seats, with a Democrat/Republican matchup in 55 seats.

The most Democratic seat with a Republican candidate is the 24th where House Democratic Leader Mike Talboy is facing his first Republican opponent ever in a 85/15 Dem seat.

The most Republican seat with a Democratic candidate is the 134th, where Democrat James Owen will face the winner of the Republican primary in a seat around 2-1 Republican.

As for Blueish seats with no candidate.. the 29th (South Independence) has a Dem candidate who hasn’t filed yet. The 11th (Platte/South Buchanan) is still Galen Higdon v. nobody. The 14th is Ron Schieber v. nobody.

The seats that are around 50/50 in some measurement (using the official state measurements) with no Democratic candidates are the 119th (Franklin County, Dave Hinson), the 35th (Lee’s Summit with part of Kansas City, Gary Cross), the 60th (all-Jeff City, Jay Barnes) and the 90th (Kirkwood, Rick Stream).

The 48th (Boonville and assorted parts of Howard/Saline/Pettis Counties, Open) is near that list. Along with the 57th (Henry and Benton Counties, Wanda Brown) and 106th (Eastern St. Charles, Chrissy Sommer).

Of the districts with one of the measurements showing a D/R split of under 10% either way or an incumbent in a more challenging district, Republicans haven’t filed in 3 of those seats, Democrats haven’t filed in 18 of those seats.

Or to put in in chart form (with the 02/10 numbers used)

Don’t you love it when 50/50 is a mark with 59 seats on one side and 99 seats on the other side? But then again, Democrats only hold 57 seats, so 59 or 62 or 64 is an improvement. Aw, 2010.

Ultimately, this year in Missouri redistricting is brought to you by chaos (which is the new normal in Missouri Politics). But I don’t think you can place your bets on the House map going away. Probably the same for the Senate map, but anything is possible there. And definitely the same for the Congressional map (compactness is apparently just a word, not an order)

For the sake of history, the number of legislative candidates who filed on the last two days in 2008? 45 candidates.

The number of legislative candidates filing on the last two days in 2010? 42.

(And some of them actually won, although that list for non-“Incumbent withdraws suddenly” scenarios is mostly Kurt Schaefer, Cole McNary, Eileen McGeoghegan and Penny Hubbard)

The maps are as set as they’re ever gonna be. Time to roll, candidates.

There’s no unified results to the March 17th portion of the Missouri caucuses. In some counties, Romney-Paul delegates were slated. In some, Santorum delegates were slated. In St. Charles County, the police were called and the caucuses were cancelled without a vote. So I suspect that caucuses will not replace primaries for the nomination of party candidates in Missouri any time soon.

Perhaps they should have just moved the primary to March last fall when they had a chance. Instead of having the House and Senate refuse to do anything, holding a sparsely attended primary, and now holding a series of caucuses with more twists, Calvinball-esque rules, and nuances than you would expect from people calling themselves conservative.

By the way, we still have 2 caucuses left, Jackson County (where they’ll hold it in one place) and the city of St. Louis (where it could be held in a restaurant without any problems).

The Missouri caucus delegate leaderboard is

Chaos 167

Santorum 100

Romney 94

Rom-Paul 91

Ron Paul 87

Unity Republicans Who Aren’t Ron Paul 85

People United Against Recording Devices 71

Mass Hysteria 56

Newt Gingrich 12

As you may have noticed in the last 10 months of Senate redistricting, the process of redistricting has been hard to figure out in regards to the Senate.

After the passage of a Tentative Map on February 23rd, the window for public comment opened. Every e-mail except a few were negative. Most hit the same general points pushed by Republicans like Jim Lembke and Jane Cunningham, and there were a lot of people in the New 10th who weren’t happy either.

Presenting 10 comments from the hundreds of e-mails which stood out for various reasons.

1. (2/27/2012) I heard a comment by one of the commissioners that he did not believe this would give an advantage to either of

the political parties. “Show Me Progress” thinks otherwise –

http://www.showmeprogress.com/…

Whoops, guess we should have kept quiet for longer.

2. (2/27/2012) This is a real bummer. I don’t want to be represented by someone living 150 miles away.

Yeah, but until they elect all the Senators in years ending in 2, you’re gonna get that somewhere in Missouri. The 7/10 split is a more public and well-known example of that. But the current 3rd district was represented for 2 years by a St. Louis area Senator from 2003 to 2005 and four counties went 6 years between electing Senators. In the 7/10 split, every county in the new 10th was in an even-numbered district and elected a Senator in 2010. In the 1990s, the 28th Senate district was split in two and dispersed between the 12th and 18th districts. Thus Steve Danner was the Senator representing the Southwest Missouri from 1993 to 1995.

So, you look at the history, and Missouri has done far worse if you look at just the Senatorial districts and disregard the Senators and de-facto Senators.

As to the reaction to Jolie Justus’ de-facto stint representing East-Central Missouri. I guess we could tally to see how many respondents correctly spelled her last name.

3. (3/4/2012) Senate District 7 (Cunningham Republican, Chesterfield) in St. Louis County which is up for election this year was arbitrarily moved across the state to a very urban, Democrat district in Kansas City that previously had an even number and was therefore not up for election.

This appears purposeful to increase the Democrat vote in a very liberal area for the upcoming

critical national and state elections not to mention provide an extra Democrat senator for

the next two legislative sessions.

Who knew that a likely to be unopposed (or minimally opposed) Democratic State Senate candidate in Kansas City was going to lead to a turnout spike in the city? The second part is technically correct, we get a free Senator for 2 years, which would be awesome if we got enough Senators to mount a filibuster. But our Senate caucus can field a baseball team in 2013.

4. (3/5/2012) The population numbers in St. Louis City and County were changed enough to yield only one Republican Senator from the area in the near future rather than the present four. Without having vigorous Republican senate campaigns in St. Louis County, the needed 150,000 votes needed to win statewide elections for Republicans is lost. This map is clearly a Democrat’s and a liberal’s dream map and unfortunately the Republicans on the Commission gave away the store.

(…)

The clear advantage given away to the Democrats for the national and statewide campaigns (Obama, McCaskill, Nixon) by transferring District 7 into downtown Kansas City to energize that liberal population not only for the Democrat primary but the general election. It is hard to imagine Republicans would vote to so benefit the Democrats in such a critical election year.

If you actually look at the St. Louis election results, you’ll be amused at the calls of how unfair it is that St. Louis County wouldn’t mostly be represented by Republicans. Oh no. An area that hasn’t been won by a statewide Republican since 2000 won’t have a majority of the Senate delegation.

Also, we covered the mass conspiracy to energize the liberals with an easy District 7 win.

5. (3/5/2012) Missouri’s proposed re-districting unfairly puts Republicans up for re-election in districts disproportionately populated by Democrats. State population migration to these newly enhanced Democratic districts further disadvantages Republican candidates with the additional potential of a loss of seats.

(plays a violin)

This is a deviation from the usual talking point that people are migrating to Republican areas.

“Oh no, we won’t be able to keep a 26-8 advantage in the Missouri Senate. How unfair!”

6. (3/6/2012) Please say “no” to the new State Senatorial map. Do not succumb to the governor. The map is heavily in favor of the Democratic party. It is unfair to St. Louis County residents by producing more Senators from urban areas with lower populations.

I would be very disappointed to think that my Republican Representatives are intentionally trying to push the election in favor of Obama cronies, who are bringing the demise of our country and our freedoms as we have known them since the beginning, to our country. Our children and grand-children’s futures are at stake in this next election.

Forget about infighting and do the right thing for Missouri residents and our country and say “yes” to the previous judicial map.

I can’t imagine how this line of debate didn’t succeed.

7. (3/7/2012) Please drop the uncontitutional map in Senate District 10. We do NOT want Senator Justus from Kansas City to be our senator. We did not vote for such a man!

Not sure if a subtle slur or total confusion.

The e-mails on the 7th, 8th, and 9th mainly involve people using the commission to just adopt the “2nd judicial commission map”, which is likely not constitutional anyways. Some of the e-mails advised a small fix in Springfield, which looks to have been acknowledged. One e-mailer suggested she would move to South America if Obama was re-elected.

8. (3/8/2012) Sir, I’ve been reading several article’s that are saying that the “New” redistricting maps will leave us Rural Missourians, basically, at the mercy of the Big City voters. Please do not think that us Rural People are just peons that do not know what is happening. In other words, we are not dummies that can’t read or write and/or know who we want to be our Representatives and Senators. I’ve been requested to ask you and your Commission to stay with the Second Judicial Commission Map, basically, so that we,as Rural Voters, do not have the Large City Voters telling us what to do. I thank you for your time.

“I’ve been requested to ask you” is probably not an ideal line to include in the e-mail when they’ve already gotten a variety of e-mails saying the exact same thing. Extra points for saying that, then saying that the big cities will tell us what to do. Yeah, they’re really dominating the Senate, aren’t they.

The whole Urban/Rural thing is a traditional redistricting problem which was handled in the 60s after the One-Man/One-Vote decisions. Once upon a time in Missouri, Worth County had a State Representative.

In the 2002 map, 12 districts were in Jackson County or St. Louis City/County. In the 2012 map, 11 districts were in Jackson County or St. Louis City/County. So if this map was a scheme to put down the Rural people, they sure did it subtlely.

Granted, judging by the addresses of the people bringing up the tyranny of urban districts crushing the suburbs, a lot of them are from Suburbs. The last quote was from a Rural Area though, from Bloomfield in Stoddard County, which was in the same district on the 2nd Judicial Map and the Tentative Map.

9. (3/8/2012) How can any responsible senate committee take a highly republican and
rural district like District 7 in Chesterfield and

move it to an urban, Democratic district 200 miles away?

Chesterfield? rural area? yeah, 70 years ago it was. Now? Not quite.

Barring more successful lawsuits, the Senate Redistricting Saga is over. And despite hundreds of e-mails saying the same thing, the vote went from 8-2 to 10-0. Amazing how trying to appeal to partisanship failed to swing the 4 pro-map Republicans away from their map. Amazing.

Now we live in a tyrannical state where Democrats have a shot at 10 of 34 Senate seats. Maybe 13 or 14 if the Republican partisans move to South America in 2013. Get your duct tape.

The story is here

Or to put it in map form.

Apparently scheduling caucuses on St. Patrick’s Day Morning in St. Louis and Kansas City was not gonna work. So gotta postpone the caucuses for a week to possibly provide a margin of victory for the favored candidate in the caucuses.

You know, we could have had a nice March 6th primary for Rick Santorum to win by less than 30 points. That’s asking a lot I know.

Sarah Steelman got an ad out all about the affront to religious freedom and how McCaskill and Obama are bad by proxy. (Check the news if you have somehow missed the nontroversy from last week).

When it comes to matters of Sarah Steelman and the current outrages of the 2012 Republican party, you need to check the record to see what happened in the past.

Back in 2001.. HB762 was moving through the Senate. The National Conference of State Legislatures describes the bill/law as follows:

Mo. Rev. Stat. § 376.1199 (2001) requires health carriers that provide pharmaceutical coverage to include coverage for contraceptives, excluding drugs and devices that are intended to induce an abortion. The law clarifies that coverage for prescriptive contraceptive drugs or devices is not excluded if prescribed for other diagnosed medical conditions. The law exempts specified insurance policies, including health carriers owned and operated by religious entities, from the provisions of the law. The law prohibits discrimination against an enrollee because of the enrollee’s request regarding contraceptive coverage. The law requires carriers to maintain the confidentiality of any individual’s request for contraceptive coverage. (HB 762)

Essentially this law is the “good kind” of birth control coverage in the eyes of the 2012 Republican Party, right? After all, it has exemptions for religious groups and it’s not the kind of coverage that spawns Sarah Steelman attack ads.

Actually, that stand seems to be to the left of the current 2012 Republican stance, judging by the whole matter of Roy Blunt trying to put a “Freedom of Conscience” amendment up to allow employers to opt-out of contraceptive coverage.

This sort of thing did come up in 2001.

John Loudon offered an amendment to the bill to make birth control coverage optional in the law. The vote on the amendment was 25-8 against.

The Ayes were John Cauthorn, Doyle Childers, Bill Kenney, Peter Kinder, David Klindt, John Loudon, Larry Rohrbach, and Morris Westfall.

The overall bill passed 153-0 in the House and 32-2 in the Senate (Loudon and Rohrbach opposed).

That Was Then.

We know that 2012 Sarah Steelman is all about the religious freedom. What about the Blunt Amendment? What about the concept of making contraceptive coverage optional?

Sarah Steelman to Claire McCaskill on Twitter: “are you going to sign on to @royblunt S1467 to protect rights of conscience or is 1st amendment meaningless to you? #mosen #tcot”

S1467 CRS Summary:

Respect for Rights of Conscience Act of 2011 – Amends the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) to permit a health plan to decline coverage of specific items and services that are contrary to the religious beliefs of the sponsor, issuer, or other entity offering the plan or the purchaser or beneficiary (in the case of individual coverage) without penalty.  Declares that such plans are still considered to: (1) be providing the essential health benefits package or preventive health services, (2) be a qualified health plan, and (3) have fulfilled other requirements under PPACA.

Declares that nothing in PPACA shall be construed to authorize a health plan to require a provider to provide, participate in, or refer for a specific item or service contrary to the provider’s religious beliefs or moral convictions. Prohibits a health plan from being considered to have failed to provide timely or other access to items or services or to fulfill any other requirement under PPACA because it has respected the rights of conscience of such a provider.

Prohibits an American Health Benefit Exchange (a state health insurance exchange) or other official or entity acting in a governmental capacity in the course of implementing PPACA from discriminating against a health plan, plan sponsor, health care provider, or other person because of an unwillingness to provide coverage of, participate in, or refer for, specific items or services.

Creates a private cause of action for the protection of individual rights created under this Act. Authorizes any person or entity to assert a violation of this Act as a claim or defense in a judicial proceeding.

Designates the Office for Civil Rights of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to receive and investigate complaints of discrimination based on this Act.

Makes this Act effective as if it were included in PPACA.

Oh, That Is Now. Isn’t It.