Pictured: “Your 2012 Constitution Party team for Governor and Lt. Governor?”
The best parts of filing month, the first day and the last two days when the business really picks up. And the business was pretty brisk in Jeff City today, so here’s all the candidates who filed today
The Governor’s race didn’t see a new candidate, but a candidate switch parties. Leonard Steinman of Jeff City switched from losing to Jay Nixon in the Democratic Party to losing to Jay Nixon in the General Election by filing in the Constitution Party primary. Ellington resident Clay Thunderhawk filed to oppose Jay Nixon in the Democratic primary near the end of business on Tuesday. Filing for Governor extends to Friday.
Speaking of switches, Bill Haas switched to his third different race in this filing season. Haas started in the 2nd Congressional District, switched to the 5th State Senate District, and switched today to running for Lt. Governor. Haas was the 8th Democrat to file for the office. The 7th Democrat was former Kansas City State Rep Jackie Townes McGee (who now resides in Hayti, Missouri, where she was raised).
Justin Harter of Columbia filed with the Constitution Party for Secretary of State. Dave Browning filed with the Libertarian Party for Attorney General.
Democrat Glenn Koenen of Valley Park filed for Congress in the 2nd District. Koenen was an executive director at Circle of Concern Food Pantry for 15 years before stepping down earlier this month.
In the 4th district, Bernie Mowinski of Sunrise Beach filed to oppose Vicky Hartzler in the Republican Primary. Mowinski has run for the State House five times since 1998. Libertarian Thomas Holbrook filed to oppose Herschel Young in the Libertarian primary. Greg Cowan filed with the Constitution Party. Holbrook and Cowan ran for Congress in 2010, with Holbrook losing in a primary.
Warrensburg Libertarian Randy Langkraehr kept his streak of running for Congress in the 5th district alive. Despite any suspicions to the contrary, the 5th only goes to Marshall, not to Warrensburg. Democrats Ronald William Harris and W. A.”Bill” Hedge of St. Joseph filed in the 6th District. Republican Christopher Ryan of Liberty filed to oppose Sam Graves.
And to the state legislature!
State Rep. Scott Sifton withdrew from seeking re-election to run for the State Senate in the 1st District, in a field with Democrats Sue Schoemehl and Michael Vogt, and Republican incumbent Jim Lembke.
Republican Terry Varner of Farmington filed for the Senate in the 3rd district. He will oppose Gary Romine of Farmington. The winner of that primary will face State Rep. Joe Fallert of Ste. Genevieve.
Jackson County Legislator Crystal Williams filed to oppose State Rep. Jason Holsman in the 7th Senate district.
Libertarian Steven Hedrick filed in the 21st State Senate District. Meanwhile in the new 31st, Midway School Board member Charlie Burton of Drexel filed for the Democrats while Dave Morris of Peculiar filed for the Republicans.
Now to the State House
Former State Rep. Rebecca McClanahan filed in the 3rd District. She will have to make it past Kirksville Mayor Richard Detweiler for the opportunity to challenge Freshman State Rep Zack Wyatt.
Republican Josh Hurlbert of Smithville filed in the 12th House District. He will face Ken Wilson of Smithville in the Republican primary. No Democrat filed in this district. But Democrat Eric Pendell of Kansas City filed in the 14th House District to challenge Ron Schieber.
Democrat Henry Carner of Kansas City filed to challenge incumbent Brandon Ellington in the 22nd District Democratic Primary.
Joshua Judy and Sally Miller filed in the 25th District to see which one of them will face the winner of the Jeremy LaFaver/Chris Miller Democratic primary.
Democrat Dale Walkup of Blue Springs filed in the 31st district, joining Syed Asif of Lake Lotawana in the Democratic field. The Republican field is incumbent Sheila Solon and Chris Lievsay. Democrat Ron Harvey of Lees Summit filed in the new 33rd district to challenge Republican Donna Pfautsch in a new open seat.
Democrat Chris Moreno and Republican Nola Wood filed in the 37th district. Moreno, who ran v. Will Kraus in 2006, will face Joe Runions of Grandview and former State Rep. Mike Sager of Lees Summit.
Democrat Kevin Morgan of Excelsior Springs filed to challenge Freshman Republican T.J. Berry of Kearney in the 38th district.
Former State Senator (in Springfield) Dennis Smith filed in the 44th House district to face former Libertarian Chris Dwyer, former Democrat Mike Becker and former something Caleb Rowden. The winner of that primary faces former State Senator Ken Jacob. Also in Columbia, Republican Fred Berry filed to oppose Democratic Incumbent Stephen Webber.
Democrat Ron Monnig of Slater filed in the 48th district. He will face the winner of the Dave Muntzel/Stephanie Fuemmeler primary. Democrat Thomas Minihan of Jefferson City filed in the 60th district to challenge Freshman Republican Jay Barnes.
Republican Rick Stokes of Wentzville filed in the 64th district to challenge Robert Cornejo in the primary. The winner will face another new filer, former State Rep. Wayne Henke of Troy.
Democrat Tony Weaver of Florissant filed to face incumbent Steve Webb in the 67th District Primary. Republican Glen Lindemann of Florissant filed to oppose Margo McNeil in the 69th district. Republican Tyler Holyfield filed to oppose St. Charles Republican Party chairman Eugene Dokes in the 70th district. The winner faces Bill Otto of St. Charles.
Democrat Paul Berry of Maryland Heights and Republican Patrick Brennan of St. Louis filed in the 72nd district. Berry faces incumbents Eileen Grant McGeoghegan and Mary Nichols in the Democratic Primary.
Democrat Michael Butler filed in the 79th to face Martin Casas. Democrat Mike Owens filed in the 84th to create a four-way field with incumbent Karla May, former State Rep Hope Whitehead and Samir Mehta. Republican Linda Mello filed in the 89th district to challenge John Diehl.
Democrat Deb Lavender filed in the 90th district to face off with Kirkswood Republican Rick Stream.
Democrat Bill Pinkston of St. Louis County filed in the 99th District to likely face Andrew Koenig in November. Koenig still has a primary challenge to get past (vs Richard La Violette). Republican Ed Rowles of Chesterfield filed to face incumbent Don Gosen in the 101st district primary.
Democrat Terry Lesinski of St. Peters filed to face Republican incumbent Kathie Conway in the 104th. Democrat Debbie Bixler of St. Charles filed to probably face Republican incumbent Mark Parkinson in the 105th. Parkinson drew a primary from a less notable Jason Smith. Tom Fann of St. Peters filed to face Chrissy Sommer (Sommer is facing a primary as well) in the 106th district. Democrat Rod Hoffman of St. Peters filed to face the winner of a Ron Hicks/AC Dienoff primary (which is probably gonna be Hicks).
Republican Ian McFarland filed in the 111th to face a primary v. Derrick Good. The winner faces former State Rep Michael Frame. Daniel James of Imperial filed to face Dean Asbury in the 112th. The Republican nominee is still likely to be Paul Wieland. Apologies to Avery Fortenberry.
The Constitution Party got a confused candidate in Richard Hoxsey of Butler, who filed in the new 120th but may have intended to file in another district (the current 120th includes parts of Bates County).
Democrat Bart Ziegenhorn of Sikeston filed to force a primary v. retired High School Teacher Mike Marsh for the 148th district. The winner faces the winner of the Holly Rehder/Josh Bill primary.
2008 winner of America’s Got Talent Neal Boyd will be testing his political talent this summer as he filed as a Republican to face incumbent Democrat Steve Hodges in the Bootheel 149th district.
Democrat Ryan William Holder of Advance filed in the 151st district. Holder ran for the seat in 2004, losing in the Democratic Primary to Bryce Wooley.
The Constitution Party got a State House ca
ndidate who filed in the right district as Sue Beck of Shell Knob filed in the 158th district. She will face the winner of a Scott Fitzpatrick/Mike Bennett/Frank Washburn Republican primary.
So, the 2002/2010 official scores for the districts with filing activity
HD012: 56/44R (no Dems)
HD022: 92/8D (no Reps)
HD067: 80.5/19.5D (no Reps)
HD079: 90/10D (no Reps)
HD084: 89.5/10.5D (no Reps)
HD089: 65/35R (no Dems)
So the Republicans have candidates in 134 districts. The Democrats have candidates in 110 districts. Only 81 districts have a Democrat v. Republican race, despite the whole redistricting year thing.
Filing is still open until Friday for Governor, the State Senate (Districts 5 and 7), and the State House (Districts 49, 93, and 112).
Here’s the top 25 House Races, districts with a Republican incumbent or a Dem v. Republican match up and a the official 2002/2010 rating of less than 10% in favor of either side. Districts ranked in no particular order
HD005: Lindell Shumake (R-inc) v. Tom Shively (D-inc)
HD014: Ron Schieber (R-inc) v. Eric Pendell (D)
HD015: Kevin Corlew (R) v. Jon Carpenter, Shon Adamson, or Carol Suter
HD020: Brent Lasater (R-inc) v. John Mayfield (D)
HD029: Noel Torpey (R-inc) v. John Sutton (D)
HD039: Joe Don McGaugh (R) v. Will Talbert (D)
HD040: Paul Quinn (D-inc) v. John Kallash or Jim Hansen
HD041: Ed Schieffer (D-inc) v. Beverly Steiniger (R)
HD043: Jay Hougton (R-inc) v. Ed Lockwood (D)
HD044: Ken Jacob (D) v. Caleb Rowden, Mike Becker, Chris Dwyer or Dennis Smith
HD047: Darrel Hansen (R) v. Nancy Copenhaver or John Wright
HD048: Ron Monnig (D) v. Dave Muntzel or Stephanie Fuemmeler
HD053: Glen Kolkmeyer (R) v. Holmes Osborne (D)
HD057: Wanda Brown (R-inc) v. Don Bullock (D)
HD070: Bill Otto (D) v. Eugene Dokes or Tyler Holyfield
HD090: Rick Stream (R-inc) v. Deb Lavender (D)
HD094: Cloria Brown (R-inc/probably) v. Vicki Englund (D)
HD095: Marsha Haefner (R-inc) v. Joe Zelle (D)
HD097: John McCaherty (R-inc) v. Martin Sam Komo (D)
HD108: Chrissy Sommer (R-inc) v. Tom Fann (D)
HD112: Paul Wieland (R-inc/probably) v. Dean Asbury (D) or Daniel James (D)
HD132: Melissa Leach (R-inc) v. Charlie Norr (D)
HD144: Paul Fitzwater (R-inc) v. Michael Jackson (D)
HD149: Steve Hodges (D-inc) v. Neal Boyd (R)
HD150: Kent Hampton (R-inc) v. Tom Todd (D)
Also receiving votes (the next 6 in both directions): Denny Hoskins (R-inc) v. Nancy Maxwell (D) (HD54), Lincoln Hough (R-inc) v. Casey Clark (D) (HD135), Jeanne Kirkton (D-inc) v. Elizabeth Deal (R) (HD91) and Genise Montecillo (D-inc) v. Al Faulitsch (R) (HD92). All apologies to Wayne Henke, Kevin Morgan, and Republicans running in 60% Democratic districts.
As for the State Senate, the top races are..
SD1: Lembke (R-inc) v. Dem (Sue Schoemehl, Michael Vogt or Scott Sifton)
SD3: Fallert (D) v. Rep (Gary Romine or Terry Varner)
SD19: Schaefer (R-inc) v. Mary Still (D)
SD25: Terry Swinger (D) v. Rep (Billy Pat Wright or Doug Libla)
and i’ll leave the 5th spot for the primaries due to a variety of uncontested races remaining for the Senate.
“Second to last day popular day to file. Folks don’t want to tempt fate by planning on the last day and then their car won’t start.” – Dave Drebes
Filing Month is wrapping up, with the last day of filing being tomorrow (Tuesday! Tuesday! Tuesday!). So traffic picked up slightly on the 2nd to last day of filing.
So here’s a report of the activity today.
Robert “Bob” Poole (R-Macon) and Hector Maldonado (R-Sullivan) filed for the US Senate. Maldonado ran for the Senate in 2010, finishing 5th of 9th in the Republican primary. Jonathan Dine (LP-Riverside) also filed today, making his second straight bid for the Senate.
Fred Sauer (R-St. Louis) of the Missouri Roundtable for Life filed for Governor today, presumably due to the lack of anti-cloning credentials displayed by Dave Spence and Bill Randles and in opposition to Jay Nixon’s secret plan to clone himself and send his clone army to run in Republican districts.
Robb Cunningham (LP-St. Louis) filed for the 1st District, making his 4th straight Congressional candidacy.
Eric Mayer (D-Camdenton) filed in the 3rd District. Mayer unsuccessfully ran for Camden County Presiding Commissioner in 2010.
Mike Moon (R-Springfield) filed to face Billy Long in the 7th District. Moon finished with 4% in a 6th place finish for the same seat in 2010. Kevin Craig (LP-Powersite) also filed for his 5th straight Congressional bid.
And the Missouri General Assembly
In the State Senate: Jacquelyn Thomas (R-Florissant) filed in the 13th and ElGene Ver Dught (D-Higginsville) filed in the 21st. Ver Dught is an attorney and mediator. Republican Incumbent David Pearce and Mike McGhee are facing off in the 21st. Reddit Hudson and Gina Walsh are facing each other in the 13th.
In the State House:
2010 candidate Tim Remole (R-Excelo) filed for a second bid in the recently reopened 6th district. The 6th is a Macon/Randolph/Linn County district that was Randy Asbury’s choice for a new district until realizing the effects of moving his family north into the district. The Republican primary in the 6th has 4 candidates, Ron Gillett of Moberly, Tony Askew of Atlanta, Alan Wyatt of Macon, and Tim Remole. Democrat Diana Scott of La Plata filed last week.
Patrick Riehle (D-Raytown) filed in the 28th district to challenge incumbent Tom McDonald (D-Independence), who is moving south to represent a district that overlaps with the southern half of the current 49th district.
John Sutton (D-Independence) filed in the 29th district to challenge freshman Republican Noel Torpey. Sutton is a High School Teacher at Van Horn High School in Independence. The 29th is a fusion of parts of the current 52nd (which Torpey won in 2010) and the 49th (which is the bluer part of the 29th).
Darrel Hansen (R-Clark) filed in the 47th district to face the winner of the Nancy Copenhaver/John Wright Democratic primary. Machinist Donald Long (D-Harrisonville) filed to face Freshman Republican Rick Brattin in the 55th. Auctioneer Don Bullock (D-Windsor) filed to face Freshman Republican Wanda Brown in the 57th.
Former one-term Republican Steve Henderson of Versailles filed to create a 3 man primary in the 58th. Henderson served a term from 2001 to 2003 before losing a primary after his county was split in two. Attorney Vonnieta E. Trickey (D-Russellville) filed to challenge freshman Republican Mike Bernskoetter of Jeff City. Janine Steck (LP-Jeff City) is also running in the new 59th district.
Libertarian John Alsup of St. Charles filed in the new 65th to challenge Anne Zerr. Former 2006 House/2008 Senate candidate Jim Trout filed in the new 83rd district to face off with Gina Mitten. No Republicans have filed in the 83rd. Al Faulitsch (R-STL) filed in the new 92nd to face Genise Montecillo. Tony Leech (R-STL) filed to face the winner of a Scott Sifton/Joe Montecillo primary.
Chuck Brodell (D-Imperial) withdrew in the 112th and was replaced by Dean Asbury (D-Arnold). Asbury will probably face Paul Wieland (R-Imperial) unless there’s a surge of support for Avery Fortenberry.
Libertarian Bill Boone of Springfield filed in the 137th district. Ted Sheppard (R-Cabool) filed in the Texas County centered 142nd to face Don Bordwell (R-Plato), Chris Purvis (R-Houston, and Robert Ross (R-Eunice). Finally we see which Texas County city is the most powerful. Democrat R. A. Pendergrass of Bakersfield filed in the Howell County centered 154th. He will face the winner of a Shawn Rhoads/Kathleen Hensley/Stan Watson primary (all from West Plains). Pendergrass is a Missouri States-West Plains facility member who lost a bid for the State Senate to Chuck Purgason in 2004.
Also, Jane Cunningham withdrew from her bid to be a 7th Senate district candidate after finding that they weren’t gonna give her a district. Travis Fitzwater withdrew from running in the 49th district after finding that Jeanie Riddle didn’t have a Senate District to run in for this election.
The official 02/10 stats on the districts with candidate activity:
HD065: 54/46R (no Dem filed)
HD083: 65/35D (no Rep filed)
HD137: 65/35R (no Dem filed)
HD142: 61/39R (no Dem filed)
After today’s filing, Republicans have candidates in 128 districts and Democrats have candidates in 98 districts.
Using the 02/10 scale, the 10 bluest districts without a Dem candidate are
HD11 (South Buchanan/North Platte, Galen Higdon): 53/47D
HD14 (Platte County, Ron Schieber): 51/49D
HD48 (Boonville, assorted counties, open seat): 50/50
HD90 (Kirkwood, Rick Stream): 52/48R
HD106 (St. Charles, Chrissy Sommer): 52/48R
HD119 (Franklin County, Dave Hinson): 53/47R
HD60 (Jeff City, Jay Barnes): 53.5/46.5R
HD35 (Lee’s Summit/Parts of KC, Gary Cross): 54/46R
HD64 (St. Charles/Part of Lincoln, open seat): 54/46R
HD65 (St. Charles, Ann Zerr): 54/46R
So it’s quite a few light-red districts to pick from there. There’s also the 116th (Ste. Genevieve/St. Francois/Perryville) and 126th (Bates/Vernon) which are bluer districts than the Shively/Shumake battle in the new 5th.
The reddest districts without a Republican are HD149 (Steve Hodges, 50/50) and HD117 (Linda Black, 52.5/47.5D). Both of which are Dems who defeated Republican opponents in 2010.
Democrats have a candidate in all 46 districts where they top 55%, compared to 14 Republicans in those districts.
There are 29 Democratic candidates in the 45 districts where neither party has an advantage of 10% or more. 42 Republicans are running in those districts.
Democrats have 23 candidates in the 72 districts with a +10R 02/10 spread.
So for all unfiled candidates with functional cars, tomorrow is the big day. And maybe there’s a day or two more if incumbents randomly drop out tomorrow and extend filing for a seat or two.
You can follow the filing here. For best results in finding new candidates on Monday/Tuesday, just do a text search for the current date.
There are two days left in candidate filing, and as with anything involving candidates and possible candidates, there will be more candidates filing on Monday and Tuesday. So here’s a dry journey of the races without a filed major party candidate.
Blaine Luetkemeyer gets a new district number and a new district shape (the new 3rd looks like a worm attempting to eat St. Louis), but Blaine doesn’t have a Democratic opponent for the 3rd. Luetkemeyer became the first major party candidate to get a free pass from the other major party since Bill Clay in 1970 back in 2010, (edit: so a Dem not running v. him in 2012 would make it two elections in a row). Libertarian Steven Wilson is seeking to oppose Luetkemeyer though.
The other 7 districts are contested by both parties. The only major party candidates currently unopposed in their primary are Luetkemeyer, Teresa Hensley/Vicky Hartzler in the 4th, Emanuel Cleaver in the 5th and Jim Evans (D-Republic) in the 7th.
Under the fold, the State Senate and the State House!
Now in the State Senate, the Republicans don’t have a candidate in the 5th, 9th, 11th, and 13th. None of which is a huge surprise. The Republicans still have Jane Cunningham filed in the 7th despite the fact that the 7th moved cross-state to Kansas City. So might as well count that as a “seat with no major party candidate filed)
As for the Democrats. Well. No candidate in the 15th (59/41R), 21st (55/45D), 23rd (56/44R), 27th (66/34R), 29th (70/30R), 31st (54/46R), or 33rd (66/34R). So that’s 7 of 17 seats. In 2008, only one of those seats was uncontested (the 29th). The 02/10 numbers are not perfect (because they count uncontested state house races, and inflates the results from places like the 21st). But it’s a mix of areas that at least drew a candidate or two, even against incumbent Senators.
The House has Republicans in 125 seats and Democrats in 93 seats, with a Democrat/Republican matchup in 55 seats.
The most Democratic seat with a Republican candidate is the 24th where House Democratic Leader Mike Talboy is facing his first Republican opponent ever in a 85/15 Dem seat.
The most Republican seat with a Democratic candidate is the 134th, where Democrat James Owen will face the winner of the Republican primary in a seat around 2-1 Republican.
As for Blueish seats with no candidate.. the 29th (South Independence) has a Dem candidate who hasn’t filed yet. The 11th (Platte/South Buchanan) is still Galen Higdon v. nobody. The 14th is Ron Schieber v. nobody.
The seats that are around 50/50 in some measurement (using the official state measurements) with no Democratic candidates are the 119th (Franklin County, Dave Hinson), the 35th (Lee’s Summit with part of Kansas City, Gary Cross), the 60th (all-Jeff City, Jay Barnes) and the 90th (Kirkwood, Rick Stream).
The 48th (Boonville and assorted parts of Howard/Saline/Pettis Counties, Open) is near that list. Along with the 57th (Henry and Benton Counties, Wanda Brown) and 106th (Eastern St. Charles, Chrissy Sommer).
Of the districts with one of the measurements showing a D/R split of under 10% either way or an incumbent in a more challenging district, Republicans haven’t filed in 3 of those seats, Democrats haven’t filed in 18 of those seats.
Or to put in in chart form (with the 02/10 numbers used)
Don’t you love it when 50/50 is a mark with 59 seats on one side and 99 seats on the other side? But then again, Democrats only hold 57 seats, so 59 or 62 or 64 is an improvement. Aw, 2010.
Ultimately, this year in Missouri redistricting is brought to you by chaos (which is the new normal in Missouri Politics). But I don’t think you can place your bets on the House map going away. Probably the same for the Senate map, but anything is possible there. And definitely the same for the Congressional map (compactness is apparently just a word, not an order)
For the sake of history, the number of legislative candidates who filed on the last two days in 2008? 45 candidates.
The number of legislative candidates filing on the last two days in 2010? 42.
(And some of them actually won, although that list for non-“Incumbent withdraws suddenly” scenarios is mostly Kurt Schaefer, Cole McNary, Eileen McGeoghegan and Penny Hubbard)
The maps are as set as they’re ever gonna be. Time to roll, candidates.
District 1 (South County) goes into Webster Groves, and went for Obama by around 10%. Which essentially means that Jim Lembke is not in a good spot for re-election to the Senate v. an opponent like Sue Schoemehl. Rumors seem to suggest that Lembke might be looking for a statewide campaign as an exit strategy out of this situation. The Incumbent is Jim Lembke, Likely D
District 2 (West St. Charles) is pretty much the same district as anybody expected. The line between 2 and 23 cuts through the middle of the county. Weldon Spring in the 23rd. Cottleville divided, St. Peters divided, and so on. Open in 2014, Solid R.
District 3 is essentially the same as the current district 3, with minimal changes in Jefferson County (all of Hillsboro is in the 3rd) and losing Carter county. The district was 50/50 in the 2008 Presidential election and is very winnable for Democrat like Joe Fallert.
District 4 is now the Western Edge of STL and Shrewsbury and part of Jennings. Represented by Joe Keaveny, Safe Democrat.
District 5 is the Eastern part of STL. Represented by Robin Wright-Jones, Safe Democratic.
District 6 is Cole, Gasconade, Maries, Miller, Moniteau, Morgan, and Osage Counties. Represented by Mike Kehoe, safe Republican.
District 7 is the first random number shift. As the district moves from West County STL to the current location of the 10th Senate District in KCMO. So congrats to that part of the state for getting 2 Senators for 2 years. The 7th district is open, and Safely Democratic.
District 8 is pretty much the same Republican area of Jackson County, represented by Will Kraus.
District 9 now snakes from Northeast Kansas City to Unity Village. It’s represented by Kiki Curls.
District 10 is now located in Eastern Missouri for some reason. It takes in Audrain, Callaway, Lincoln, Monroe, Montgomery, and Warren Counties. It’ll be represented by Kansas City Democrat Jolie Justus until 2014. Why in the world they put 7 in Kansas City and 10 in Eastern Missouri is a complete mystery to me. There’s already 2 Senate Districts up for election in Jackson County in 2012, and moving 7 to Jackson means that there’s only one Senate district up in Jackson County in 2014. Although Paul Quinn now has something to do in 2014 when he’s termed out of the House. So that might be a reason for the numbering. And to Senator Justus, have fun Representing Eastern Missouri for 2 years.
District 11 is mostly Independence with parts of Northeast Kansas City, Eastern Kansas City and Raytown included to give Paul LeVota new places to campaign. Solidly Democratic.
District 12 is Northwest Missouri, going from Atchison County to Putnam County, taking in part of Clay County. Open in 2014, Solid Republican.
District 13 is North County STL, an open seat and solidly Democratic.
District 14 is a bow from Clayton to Jennings to Bridgeton, Solidly Democratic.
District 15 moves a bit West and looks like it’s gonna be solid Republican turf for Eric Schmitt.
District 16 takes in Camden, Crawford, Dent, Phelps, and Pulaski. It’ll probably be comfortable enough for Dan Brown in 2014.
District 17 went for Obama by 4%. Which would be comforting if there was an announced Democratic Candidate. But there’s still time, maybe even until the end of April if we’re lucky. Ryan Silvey is the Republican candidate for this seat and will be looking over the map to find split towns as a source of complaint. Silvey’s the favorite to win the 17th but one day it’ll be won by Democrat again, we’re sure.
District 18 goes from Pike County to Clark, over to Schuyler, down to Macon, over to Linn and Randolph, and then to Shelby. For a district that was traditionally Democratic and could be contested by someone in the future. The incumbent is Brian Munzlinger.
District 19 is Boone and Cooper Counties. It’s a better marriage for Kurt Schaefer in his race v. Mary Still. The district still went for Obama by 9%. Enjoy all your trips to Boonville on I-70, Candidates!
District 20 is Christian County and a donut shaped part of of Greene County. Represented by Jay Wasson.
District 21 goes from Johnson County, up to Lafayette, to Saline, Howard, Chariton, Livingston, Caldwell, Ray, and Carroll. The district went for McCain by 13% but could be a 50/50 district on the state level. David Pearce will be the incumbent in the district, but he hasn’t represented any part of the district outside of Johnson County.
District 22 is pretty much the same part of Northern Jefferson County as before. It’ll be open, competitive, but leaning Dem.
District 23 is Eastern St. Charles County. Pretty much the same district as the previous district but more eastern.
District 24 moves west a bit for Republican incumbent John Lamping. Town and County, Creve Coeur, Maryland Heights, Ladue. STL experts can make the call here.
District 25 drops Ripley County, and adds Shannon, Mississippi, and Carter Counties. Terry Swinger and Billy Pat Wright are likely opponents for this open Senate Seat, which would presumably lean R, but having Dunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties in the same district will have to be a team to overcome the Republican margins in Butler and Stoddard Counties.
District 26 is Franklin County and West County STL. Brian Nieves is the State Senator. And Jane Cunningham is a resident of the district (yes, Jane Cunningham looks to be drawn out of the Senate on this map, barring a UHaul truck taking her to another part of St. Louis County). Safe Republican.
District 27 goes from Scott County, to Cape County to Perry, Madison, Wayne, and Bollinger. It’s an open seat which will be contested by Wayne Wallingford and Ellen Brandom. Safe Republican.
District 28 is a bit less complex now. It goes from Cedar County over to Laclede. And it goes from Polk County to Pettis County. Represented by Mike Parson, still Republican.
District 29 is Barry, Lawrence, McDonald, Stone, and Taney Counties. I think it’s open in 2012 (I believe Goodman is termed out).
District 30 is Springfield.
District 31 goes down US71 from Cass to Barton County, and it also includes Henry and St. Clair Counties. Scott Largent is running for the Senate and will continue doing so. And maybe someone from the current 31st will run as well.
District 32 is Dade, Jasper, and Newton Counties. Represented by Ron Richard. Safe Republican.
District 33 goes down the Arkansas Border from Ozark to Ripley Counties. It also includes Douglas, Webster, Wright, and Texas Counties.
District 34 is Buchanan and Platte Counties.
Here’s a low-tech map showing the districts (without going into the bigger counties to show the splits)
So, do your own math. Even if doing math in the morning is a risk.
The Appellate Apportionment Commission has filed a revised state Senate redistricting plan and map with the Secretary of State. The revised plan was filed within the 90-day period allowed by the Constitution and replaces the plan filed on November 30, 2011. A majority of the Commission opted to revise the plan upon further consideration of a constitutional provision regarding multi-district counties, even though that provision may not apply to redistricting maps drawn by the appellate judges.
The Senate redistricting plan has an overall difference in population of 7.79% between its largest and smallest districts. The plan has four African-American majority districts.
Summary maps and demographic reports describing the new Senate districts are posted on the website: http://oa.mo.gov/bp/redistricting. Additional detailed maps and census descriptions filed with Secretary of State will also soon be available on the website.
Here’s part of the official Map 2 from the OA website
Presented with minimal comment, a collection of local news stories of the early reactions and pivoting from the new legislative maps.
From the Columbia Daily Tribune: Chris Kelly considering a run in the 47th (50/50 on the 02/10 av) over the 50th (55/45 Republican on the 02/10 av). Former Boone County Presiding Commissioner Don Stamper is considering a run for the 47th if Kelly doesn’t run there. Columbia School Board member Jonathan Sessions is considering running for the 45th if Mary Still runs against Kurt Schaefer for the 19th Senate District.
From the Washington Missourian comes a quote that could be repeated in a few parts of the state from Franklin County Presiding Commissioner John Grieshamer:
“It is terrible, The (26th) Senatorial District is real good, but the House districts, they basically took a stick of dynamite and blew them up.”
A newer article from the Missourian has the Dave v. Dave showdown at a moment of uncertainty as both Dave Schatz and Dave Hinson are unsure of what to do. Scott Dieckhaus speaks of differences between the communities on both sides of his 61st district. Brian Nieves is happy with his district.
Daily Dunklin Democrat: Kent Hampton was surprised to find that he’d be put in 152nd district. Hampton may choose to run in the open 150th district (which averages 56/44 Democratic from 2002 to 2010). Meanwhile State Senate candidates Billy Pat Wright (R-Dexter) and Terry Swinger (D-Caruthersville) are joined by State Rep. Ellen Brandom (R-Sikeston).
Southeast Missourian brings news of Holly Rehder (R-Sikeston), who was running to replace Ellen Brandom, being shown no mercy by the etch-a-sketch Redistricting force.. she got dropped into the 149th district (which is 50/50 on average) instead of a district like the 148th (which was 62/38 Republican on average). Incumbent State Rep Steve Hodges (D-East Prairie) was put in the 148th but may run in the 148th or 149th.
Jason Holsman announced his candidacy in the 37th district, and endorsed Kevin McManus for the 36th district.
Today, the white smoke came out of the chimney of the Redistricting Commission and maps were submitted with the Secretary of State.
Quick and Dirty Missouri Senate Redistricting comments
Because there are 34 Senate Districts and 163 House Districts and the house map is a bit disorienting (the winner of the House redistricting? the printers who will have to make new business cards for every House member).. I will start with the Senate.
First Impressions, District by District
District 1: Becomes more Republican as the STL County areas closest to the City move to the 4th District. Jim Lembke is the Incumbent.
District 2: Loses Lincoln County and takes in the more Republican Western half of St. Charles. Open in 2014.
District 3: Acquires Cape Girardeau and Perry. Keeps St. Francois and Ste. Genevieve. Can’t imagine it not going Republican. Open in 2012
District 4: Veers into Lemay. Safe Democratic. Joe Keaveny is the incumbent.
District 5: Moves a bit West intl St. Louis. Safe Democratic. Robin Wright-Jones is the incumbent.
District 6: Moves towards the Ozarks. Mike Kehoe is the Incumbent.
District 7: New Seat. Takes in a lot of traditionally Dem turf and some long-standing Republican areas. Should be competitive in 2012.
District 8: Is shaped like a blade. Goes from the Jackson/Lafayette line on 24 Highway to Longview Lake. Will Kraus is the incumbent.
District 9: Now goes from Ruskin Lake to the Historic Northeast KC. Kiki Curls is the Incumbent.
District 10: Goes from North Kansas City to Belton. Seriously. I doubt the additions will be able to overwhelm the Plaza/Brookside core of the district. This district will be open in 2014. Until then, hope Raymore enjoys Jolie Justus.
District 11: Independence and Raytown stay together. Although some areas move from 8 to 11. The seat is open and Paul LeVota is still the only contender in the ring for the 11th.
District 12: A lot more compact. Still Republican. Takes in Ray County. Open in 2014.
District 13: Moves towards Bridgeton. Open in 2012.
District 14: Takes in Clayton and Richmond Heights. Loses space in the Western end of the district. Represented by Maria Chappelle-Nadal.
District 15: Moves from Maplewood/Webster Groves to Peerless Park to Ballwin. Represented by Eric Schmitt.
District 16: A lot more concise. Goes from Rolla to Camdenton with Lebanon and Waynesville as destinations. Representated by Dan Brown.
District 17: Clay County (except for North KC and Kearney). Liberty. Gladstone. Pleasant Valley. Should still be competitive. But moved a bit to the Republicans. Open in 2012.
District 18: Adds some Republican areas (Trenton), adds Moberly, drops Mexico and Pike County. Represented by Brian Munzlinger.
District 19: Boone and Howard County reunited. Randolph County seemed to be more Republican friendly than Howard County lately. Represented by Kurt Schaefer. Could be competitive.
District 20: Republican County. Eastern Greene County, Webster, Wright, Christian, Douglas. Represented by Jay Wasson.
District 21: Now adds Warrensburg, David Pearce, and Sedalia. Why they had to split Johnson County is a mystery, but the House map is worse for the County. Could be competitive with the right candidate. Represented by David Pearce.
District 22: Most of Jefferson County, Washington County, Iron County, Reynolds County, and Madison County. Open in 2014, should be competitive but leans Dem. Why Jefferson County doesn’t have it’s own seat is a mystery.
District 23: Eastern St. Charles. The bluer St. Charles District. Represented by Tom Dempsey.
District 24: Maryland Heights, Part of Chesterfield, Olivette. Represented by John Lamping (who has a few years to move in if he wants it).
District 25: The entire Bootheel is in one district with Bollinger, Scott, Stoddard and Wayne Counties. The seat is open as well. So it might be competitive in 2012.
District 26: Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade, and Warren Counties. Represented by Brian Nieves.
District 27: Moved to West County STL and Northern Jefferson County. I think Jane Cunningham lives here now.
District 28: Nevada, Stockton, Bolivar, Buffafo, Willard. Republican Country. Represented by Michael Parson
District 29: The Ultimate Republican Country. Open in 2012.
District 30: Springfield! Might be slightly bluer. But still represented by Bob Dixon.
District 31: A lot of the current 28th and 31st districts, along with Southeastern Jackson County. Open Seat.
District 32: Jasper and Newton Counties. Represented by Ron Richard.
District 33: Poplar Bluff to Theodosia. Goes north to Texas and Dent Counties. Open Seat. Doesn’t Frank Barnitz live here?
District 34: Buchanan and Platte Counties. Same district. Represented by Rob Schaaf.
Overall, there isn’t a drastic change from the cruel status quo of the Missouri Senate. There are some oddities from the line drawing hurt Dems. But there are opportunities as well.
So here’s the map, with the seats open in 2012 in white, and the seats are open in 2014 in the color of the 2010 victor:
Perhaps I have not written enough about the Missouri State Senate in all the years of writing about elections and more technical stuff involving Missouri politics. But this timeline might give you an idea of why I have not written about the Missouri Senate often in the last 3 years.
1999-2001: The margin is 18 Democrats and 16 Republicans.
November 2000: Republicans pick up their 17th seat when Bill Foster defeats Jerry Howard in the 25th district. But the Democrats vacate 2 seats with Lacy Clay’s election to Congress and Joe Maxwell’s election as Lt. Governor. The Republicans vacate a seat when Sam Graves is elected to Congress.
January 2001: Republicans pick up their 18th seat when John Cauthorn defeats Robert Clayton in the 18th district. They retain the Sam Graves seat, and the Democrats obviously retain the Clay seat. This marks the first since since 1946 that Republicans had a majority in the State Senate
2002, etc: The Republicans picked up 2 seats in 2002 (picking up the 2nd [St. Charles], 20th [Seat that moved west to SW MO], and 34th [Buchanan/Platte] and losing the 26th). They picked up 3 more in 2004 (The 3rd [SE MO], 17th [Clay County], 21st [West Central MO] and 31st [Lower Case R] and they kinda lost the 1st (but that’s a redistricting oddity). While various special elections produced flips like Barnitz picking up Steelman’s seat, the special election where Bill Alter won with 30% because 3 Democrats ran.
Democrats made some progress in 2006, picking up the 18th (Shoemyer), winning back the 22nd (McKenna) and getting Chris Koster to switch parties. The . Then in 2008, they lost 3 seats, the 1st, 19th, and 31st. Then in 2010, they lost 3 more seats. The good news is that we’re not probably not losing 3 more seats in 2012 paring the redistricting commission selling St. Louis and Kansas City.
So the standings are now 26-8. That’s why I’m not huge into talking about the Senate and Senate elections, because most of the drama involves stuff not happening because the Republicans can’t get along, instead of Democrats being able to do anything on their own. That, and the “paper bag of money” campaign finance system really comes into play for the Senate elections.
You can stop drinking or shielding your eyes around this point of the post.
But anyways, let’s do a bit of a background post followed by some possibilities of what might come in 2012.
Before one-man one-vote, the Missouri Senate was malapportioned, but it was not as bad as the Missouri house (which every county had one seat until 1967).
Here’s how the Senate districts looked in 1963:
It’s safe to say that the “Dallas County to Washington County” worm will not be revived in the 2012 map. But trends that will be seen in the maps in the last 50 years involve counties (outside of the metropolitan counties) rarely being split and also the boothill always gets split in multiple pieces (especially since it’s not possible to have a Poplar Bluff to Cape Girardeau district).
But with one-man one-vote advocating the once-controversial idea of all districts having relatively equal population, the 1967 map changed a bit.
Jackson County got an extra district. St. Charles/Warren Counties got their own district. And the world didn’t radically change.
You can kind of notice some evolving going on, can’t you?
The 2002 districts had a range in population from 159100 (the 3rd) to 170302 (the 25th) when they were drawn. And after the 2010 census, the range is 140093 (the 4th) to 242885 (the 2nd).
So fixes are in order, obviously.
The “ideal” population is 176145, up from an ideal population of 164565 ten years ago. As you can see from the range used in 2002, there’s a shot there’ll be districts within the 5% of the ideal, which means a range of around 168K to 185K.
The counties with the population to support their own district(s) are St. Louis (998954, 5 districts plus a majority in a 6th), Jackson (674158, 3 districts plus a majority in a 4th), St. Charles (2 districts), St. Louis City (1 district and a majority in 2nd district), Greene County (1 district and a majority in a 2nd district), Clay County (1 district), and Jefferson County (1 district).
The counties with the population to have a majority of people in a district: Boone, Jasper, Franklin, Cass, Platte, and Buchanan.
With the possible deviations from 176145, a few possibilities can be seen before we go to the commissioners maps.
1) St. Charles County could just get split 2 ways. Both districts would be around 180K. If St. Charles is split evenly, then the rest would likely go into a district with Warren or Lincoln Counties.
2) Jasper and Newton counties are perfectly paired. Their combined population is 175518.
3) Platte and Buchanan Counties will likely continue their marriage as well. Combined their population is 178523.
So let’s look at the maps.
Map A was proposed by Commissioner Doug Harpool.
One of the more interesting quirks of this map involve moving district numbers around. The 18th is moved to SE Missouri for some reason. The 27th is moved to NE Missouri. Now, if Missouri elected all 34 members in 2012, that wouldn’t matter as much. But with the odd-numbered districts up in 2012 and the even numbered up in 2014, it’s kind of a prickly issue. The designations of 18th and 27th could be easily retained as is.
Also, there’s a case of switching the 29th on this map to be the 31st, the 24th on the map to be the 29th, and the 31st on this map to be the 24th. Although with the odds/evens, my idea would mean that St. Louis resident John Lamping would be technically representing a fork shaped district in West-Central Missouri. But if he likes the Ozarks enough, he could always establish residency at a lake house. But those are cosmetic comments.
As for the Harpool map in the metro areas.
The surplus of Jackson County is paired with the surplus of Clay County. His STL map pairs Lembke and Schmitt in a district which includes Clayton, Kirkwood, and Richmond Heights. It also pairs Lamping and Chappelle-Nadal and puts Jane Cunningham in a much bluer district, while making West County the surplus and giving it to Brian Nieves.
14 of the 33 districts don’t split any county lines (and the 3rd and 12th provide enough info without partial counties), so I checked the results from 5 elections (2 ‘generic’ elections from 2008 [Koster and Zweifel], 1 ‘good Dem performance in a bad Dem year’ (Robin Carnahan in 2004), 1 ‘Dem-friendly’ election from 2006 [Susan Montee] and 1 ‘Dem-unfriendly’ election from 2010 [Susan Montee]).
Two Harpool districts were won by all 5 candidates. The 3rd outside of Jefferson and the 19th. Several districts were won by 2 or more candidates. The 21st and 27th were won by Montee06 and Robin04. The 29th and 34th were won by Koster, Montee06 and Robin04. Montee’s 2006 performance was unusually good for a downballot Dem in the outstate areas, as she also won the 12th and 31st. So take it with a grain of salt.
The range of percentages from the 5 campaigns, from highest to lowest was.. (Montee 06 is highest and Montee 2010 is lowest unless noted otherwise)
3rd: 49.9% to 61.05%
6th: 36.65% to 46.6%
12th: 32.6% to 52.2% (Zweifel is the low mark, as he was facing 12th district Senator Brad Lager)
16th: 33.9% to 44.9%
18th: 29.8% to 43.7% (Koster is the high mark)
19th: 48.3% to 57.55%
21st: 40.4% to 52.8%
24th: 28.2% to 38.7%
25th: 35% to 49.5%
27th: 41.5% to 53.1%
28th: 31.9% to 39.4%
29th: 43.8% to 55.5%
31st: 38% to 50%
2nd: 22.2% to 32.7%
33rd: 33.9% to 42.8%
34th: 46.8% to 55.1%
So, the other 18 districts split with 2 in St. Charles, the West County/Franklin District, 7 districts in STL, the Jefferson County district, the Springfield district, the Greene/Christian donut, the Clay County district, and 4 Jackson County districts. Those 18 could split 11-7 D in good years (with 6 wins in STL/STLCo, a hold of the JeffCo district, holds of the 3 KCMO districts, and a win in Clay County). Then the 3rd/19th/29th/34th are winnable with an outside shot at the 21st/27th. Finding a plausible scenario of Democrats getting 17 seats from this map is always a good sign to it’s abilities. I might be underselling Dems in the proposed 15th and Springfield too.
So with those happy thoughts out in the open, how about Map B proposed by Republican commissioner John Maupin?
When your party has a 26-8 advantage. You’re obviously going to propose a very status-quo friendly map. (And you’ll also pair historically-Republican Cooper County with Boone County to help our the Republican Senator from Boone)
The map moves the historically Republican Putnam County from the 18th to 12th. Macon county moves from the 21st to the 18th. Montgomery County moves from the 16th to the 18th. Randolph County moves from the 19th to the 21st. Cooper County moves from the 21st to the 19th. Pettis County moves from the 28th to the 21st (very historical!). Vernon County moves from the 31st to the 28th. Moniteau and Morgan Counties move from the 6th to the 28th. Osage and Gasconade move from the 16th to the 6th. Dallas County moves from the 28th to the 33rd. Douglas and Webster Counties move from the 20th to the 33rd. Ozark County moves from the 29th to the 33rd. Howell, Oregon and Shannon Counties move from the 33rd to the 3rd. Ste. Genevieve County moves from the 3rd to the 22nd. Lincoln County moves from the 2nd to the 26th.
So, how about a look at the metro areas?
That tail in the Springfield district might blow Maupin’s shot at a “neat and tidy redistricting award”.
The KC area map keeps 3 Dem districts (The 11th goes into redder territory, but the Southern Clay area will make up for it). Moving the 11th into Southern Clay means that the Clay County district is more Republican-friendly. Think of Clay County like an unusual sandwich. Republicans in the north, a mix of Rs and Ds in the middle, Democrats in the South. The Congressional map put the Democrats in the Jackson County-anchored 5th and this map is following in that tradition of putting them where they can’t hurt Republicans. Now, it’d be far more logical to have a Clay County district that is mainly suburban and put Smithville and other northern areas into another district. But this is redistricting, not logic.
As for St. Louis, he tried real hard to make the 24th into a dependable Republican district, stretching the 24th from Ellisville to Bridgeton to Richmond Heights. The 1st losing South St. Louis is expected, and they’re rolling the dice that Affton doesn’t cause problems electorally. Moving the 7th into Northwest Jefferson County means that Jefferson County, has the population for one whole district, will not get that district. But the 22nd becomes a Democrat sanctuary district by adding Ste. Genevieve County.
So let’s go back to the results sheet to see how this map slices up the state.
One district is won 4 of 5 candidates (SD19 is won by Koster, Montee06, Zweifel, and Robin04 and lost by Montee10). SD3 is won by Koster and Montee06. SD31 and SD34 are won by Koster, Montee06, and Robin04. So let’s take a look at the ranges. (Once again, best is Montee06, worst is Montee2010, unless otherwise noted)
SD3: 43.5% to 54.9%
SD6: 34.9% to 45.15%
SD12: 33.1% to 52.1% (Zweifel is the low-point here, look to the previous list for why)
SD16: 36.9% to 46.6%
SD18: 42.1% to 53%
SD19: 47.2% to 56.6%
SD21: 42.5% to 55.2%
SD25: 34.4% to 49.1%
SD26: 40.6% to 52.6%
SD27: 30% to 44% (high percentage is Koster’s)
SD28: 35.6% to 46.3%
SD29: 28.5% to 39.1%
SD31: 39.3% to 50.7%
SD32: 22.75% to 33%
SD33: 32.3% to 40.4%
SD34: 46.8% to 55.1%
So, in the 18 districts which weren’t listed above, the Dems would hold the 8 seats they currently hold. The Republicans would have the upperhand in the 1st, 7th, and 15th in STL, the 8th in Jackson County, both St. Charles County seats, both Greene County seats, and Clay County. And maybe the 24th turns competitive in the decade. As for the 16 districts listed above, the Dems would have a good shot at 4 of them (3rd/19th/21st/34th). So if they run the table, the Senate is still 22-12.
1) the districts in St. Louis County will be vital. Currently the St. Louis County delegation is 4-2 Republican (a flip from 4-2 Democratic before 2008). With the right lines, the delegation could return to 4-2 Democratic in the next two elections.
2) Clay County is also going to be important. The Harpool district is more competitive than the Maupin district (which puts North KC into a Democrat sanctuary with Independence).
3) A Boone/Howard 19th has 172K people in it and is bluer than a Boone/Cooper 19th (which has 180K people). The logistics of getting from Boone to Howard and Boone to Cooper are another matter. But at the same time, Howard County could benefit from not being on the other side of a river in it’s State Senate district.
4) There are areas outside of Kansas City and St. Louis that can be won by Democrats. The 3rd and 21st will be important in 2012. Winning back the 19th is vital. Hopefully future statewide campaigns don’t go the route of the last statewide campaign in those areas.
5) Seriously, Jasper and Newton Counties in the 32nd. I’m not sure why Dade County is still with the 32nd on the Maupin map. Does the ecosystem fall apart if you take Dade County and put it in another Republican district? There’s no road that takes you directly from Jasper to Dade Counties. Look it up.
6) I doubt much will be done to alter the division of the Boothill. But a district of just Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Perry, Scott, and Stoddard Counties is very close to the ideal population. The 25th may look a bit more odd without Stoddard County, but with all the 5% deviation districts that they’re gonna do, they could do a district with a .00012489 deviation (22 people away from the ideal). Just an idea.
7) I’m not exactly expecting a split of Kirksville and Hannibal in the 2012 Senate map. I’m hoping the Ste. Genevieve to Shannon area winds up in the same district. Hopefully the judges who draw the map don’t put Southern Clay and Independence into a vote-sink. And hopefully the St. Louis County Senate delegation isn’t 66% Republican in a strongly Democratic county soon.
8) Maps don’t make elections. Candidates make elections. So all this goes out the window if the Democrats don’t/can’t compete in winnable districts. Missouri’s campaign finance system is incredibly incumbent friendly. There’s only two ways to get around that, get the law changed via initative (and prepared to do that over and over) or neutralize their strength with a combination of money and hard work and money and money and money.
And thus ends a mandatory minimum look into the Missouri State Senate and elections. Hopefully the Senate Democratic Caucus gains enough members to field a baseball team in 2013.