State of Missouri – General Election, November 03, 2020
As announced by the Board of State Canvassers on December 08, 2020
Secretary of State 3692 of 3692 Precincts Reported
John R. (Jay) Ashcroft Republican 1,798,505 60.505%
Yinka Faleti Democratic 1,081,113 36.371%
Carl Herman Freese Libertarian 55,583 1.870%
Paul Lehmann Green 24,131 0.812%
Paul Venable Constitution 13,151 0.442%
[….]”The biggest question there is whether Missouri will stay a 6-2 state, with six Republican districts and two Democrat districts, or whether they will go 7-1,” Ashcroft said.
He said the state’s political leaning has been changing during the past couple decades, which could provide reason to change the current districts for more Republican representation.
He said he’s expecting a robust discussion on congressional redistricting, particularly in terms of how Missouri voters line up with current representatives.
“Just looking at my own position, I won statewide by 25 percentage points, which makes me say that it seems to me Missouri is a pretty Republican state,” Ashcroft said. “So in that regard, if we were 7-1, I think that would probably do a better job of actually representing who the people of Missouri are in Washington, D.C.”[….]
Jay Ashcroft (r), right wingnut, math:
60.505% is equal to or greater than 87.5%
36.371% is less than 25.0% and equal to 12.5%
This also explains how the U.S. Senate filibuster “works”.
Today at the Missouri Ethics Commission for the PAC supporting repeal of the redistricting reform in CLEAN Missouri that voters overwhelmingly approved last November:
C180700 07/03/2019 Fair Missouri Missouri Alliance for Freedom 7509 NW Tiffany Springs Parkway Ste 300 Kansas City MO 64153 7/3/2019 $40,978.36
These folks? The address is the same:
C171144: Missouri Alliance For Freedom – Grace River Pac
Committee Type: Political Action
7509 Nw Tiffany Springs Parkway Ste 300
Kansas City Mo 64153
Established Date: 05/17/2017
James C Thomas Iii
7509 Nw Tiffany Springs Parkway Ste 300
Kansas City Mo 64153
Also today at the Missouri Ethics Commission:
C171144 07/03/2019 Missouri Alliance For Freedom – Grace River PAC Herzog Technologies 600 South Riverside Drive St Joseph MO 64507 6/17/2019 $50,000.00
C171144 07/03/2019 Missouri Alliance For Freedom – Grace River PAC Herzog Railroad Services 600 South Riverside Drive St Joseph MO 64507 6/17/2019 $50,000.00
C171144 07/03/2019 Missouri Alliance For Freedom – Grace River PAC Herzog Contracting Corp 600 South Riverside Drive St Joseph MO 64507 6/17/2019 $50,000.00
So what about Josh Hawley? There’s this little morsel (as noted by Michael Bersin here) which indicates that perhaps the guy just isn’t working with all the lights burning:
In Missouri’s U.S. Senate race, Josh Hawley (R) slammed Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) this morning for “hiding out” in Washington, D.C. For the record, the Senate is in session, which means McCaskill just went to work.
One twitter commentator suggested that Hawley might need a tutorial on how government works. In fact, lots of folks have been wondering this summer if Hawley’s really up to speed when it comes to “work,” and “politics” stuff – an impression that this post-primary awkwardness reinforces. Perhaps a tutorial would be just the thing.
Want more evidence that our hero is a little slower on the uptake than we’d expect from a Yale and Stanford graduate? How about Hawlely’s inability to let us know what he thinks about major issues in Missouri politics like the ballot initiatives that will come before the voters this November: we’ll vote on a higher minimum wage, clean government measures, including fair redistricting reform, increases to the gas tax to pay for sorely needed infrastructure improvements, and legalization of medical marijuana.
“Yes” or “no” stuff for any thinking politician, right? But Hawley seems to be a little worried that he might get somebody’s dander up if he expresses a real opinion on possibly controversial topics, which may be why he’s so willing to temporize. He declares that:
… he needs to read through all of the proposals and is still making up his mind. He said he’s inclined to support medical marijuana, but he said he wants to make sure there are enough protections to limit it to medical uses.
We’ve known that these initiatives would probably be on the ballot for some time – and even if we hadn’t, each of them is important enough, and most have been swirling around in the national conversation with such force, that we should be able expect a serious candidate for statewide office to have well-thought out opinions.
Senator McCaskill, I notice, is able to discuss the propositions straightforwardly without obfuscation or withdrawing into a shuddering heap. What we get are clear cut answers about what she believes will work best for Missourians. She likes all the propositions – expressing serious enthusiasm about clean government measures, something that all ethical politicians should be able to endorse. She even approves of the gas tax – a position that takes courage in these days when a sizeable section of the electorate has been brain-washed to think that you don’t have to pay for what you get – or that the other guy doesn’t deserve what you get.
There is one aspect of the questions raised by the ballot propositions that Hawley is willing to commit to. Our prim, proper and very religious AG is pretty clear that no one should be able to toke up who isn’t suffering from an agonizing or terminal disease. Easy-peasy decision if you’ve got your priorities straight.
Pictured: “Your 2012 Constitution Party team for Governor and Lt. Governor?”
The best parts of filing month, the first day and the last two days when the business really picks up. And the business was pretty brisk in Jeff City today, so here’s all the candidates who filed today
The Governor’s race didn’t see a new candidate, but a candidate switch parties. Leonard Steinman of Jeff City switched from losing to Jay Nixon in the Democratic Party to losing to Jay Nixon in the General Election by filing in the Constitution Party primary. Ellington resident Clay Thunderhawk filed to oppose Jay Nixon in the Democratic primary near the end of business on Tuesday. Filing for Governor extends to Friday.
Speaking of switches, Bill Haas switched to his third different race in this filing season. Haas started in the 2nd Congressional District, switched to the 5th State Senate District, and switched today to running for Lt. Governor. Haas was the 8th Democrat to file for the office. The 7th Democrat was former Kansas City State Rep Jackie Townes McGee (who now resides in Hayti, Missouri, where she was raised).
Justin Harter of Columbia filed with the Constitution Party for Secretary of State. Dave Browning filed with the Libertarian Party for Attorney General.
Democrat Glenn Koenen of Valley Park filed for Congress in the 2nd District. Koenen was an executive director at Circle of Concern Food Pantry for 15 years before stepping down earlier this month.
In the 4th district, Bernie Mowinski of Sunrise Beach filed to oppose Vicky Hartzler in the Republican Primary. Mowinski has run for the State House five times since 1998. Libertarian Thomas Holbrook filed to oppose Herschel Young in the Libertarian primary. Greg Cowan filed with the Constitution Party. Holbrook and Cowan ran for Congress in 2010, with Holbrook losing in a primary.
Warrensburg Libertarian Randy Langkraehr kept his streak of running for Congress in the 5th district alive. Despite any suspicions to the contrary, the 5th only goes to Marshall, not to Warrensburg. Democrats Ronald William Harris and W. A.”Bill” Hedge of St. Joseph filed in the 6th District. Republican Christopher Ryan of Liberty filed to oppose Sam Graves.
And to the state legislature!
State Rep. Scott Sifton withdrew from seeking re-election to run for the State Senate in the 1st District, in a field with Democrats Sue Schoemehl and Michael Vogt, and Republican incumbent Jim Lembke.
Republican Terry Varner of Farmington filed for the Senate in the 3rd district. He will oppose Gary Romine of Farmington. The winner of that primary will face State Rep. Joe Fallert of Ste. Genevieve.
Jackson County Legislator Crystal Williams filed to oppose State Rep. Jason Holsman in the 7th Senate district.
Libertarian Steven Hedrick filed in the 21st State Senate District. Meanwhile in the new 31st, Midway School Board member Charlie Burton of Drexel filed for the Democrats while Dave Morris of Peculiar filed for the Republicans.
Now to the State House
Former State Rep. Rebecca McClanahan filed in the 3rd District. She will have to make it past Kirksville Mayor Richard Detweiler for the opportunity to challenge Freshman State Rep Zack Wyatt.
Republican Josh Hurlbert of Smithville filed in the 12th House District. He will face Ken Wilson of Smithville in the Republican primary. No Democrat filed in this district. But Democrat Eric Pendell of Kansas City filed in the 14th House District to challenge Ron Schieber.
Democrat Henry Carner of Kansas City filed to challenge incumbent Brandon Ellington in the 22nd District Democratic Primary.
Joshua Judy and Sally Miller filed in the 25th District to see which one of them will face the winner of the Jeremy LaFaver/Chris Miller Democratic primary.
Democrat Dale Walkup of Blue Springs filed in the 31st district, joining Syed Asif of Lake Lotawana in the Democratic field. The Republican field is incumbent Sheila Solon and Chris Lievsay. Democrat Ron Harvey of Lees Summit filed in the new 33rd district to challenge Republican Donna Pfautsch in a new open seat.
Democrat Chris Moreno and Republican Nola Wood filed in the 37th district. Moreno, who ran v. Will Kraus in 2006, will face Joe Runions of Grandview and former State Rep. Mike Sager of Lees Summit.
Democrat Kevin Morgan of Excelsior Springs filed to challenge Freshman Republican T.J. Berry of Kearney in the 38th district.
Former State Senator (in Springfield) Dennis Smith filed in the 44th House district to face former Libertarian Chris Dwyer, former Democrat Mike Becker and former something Caleb Rowden. The winner of that primary faces former State Senator Ken Jacob. Also in Columbia, Republican Fred Berry filed to oppose Democratic Incumbent Stephen Webber.
Democrat Ron Monnig of Slater filed in the 48th district. He will face the winner of the Dave Muntzel/Stephanie Fuemmeler primary. Democrat Thomas Minihan of Jefferson City filed in the 60th district to challenge Freshman Republican Jay Barnes.
Republican Rick Stokes of Wentzville filed in the 64th district to challenge Robert Cornejo in the primary. The winner will face another new filer, former State Rep. Wayne Henke of Troy.
Democrat Tony Weaver of Florissant filed to face incumbent Steve Webb in the 67th District Primary. Republican Glen Lindemann of Florissant filed to oppose Margo McNeil in the 69th district. Republican Tyler Holyfield filed to oppose St. Charles Republican Party chairman Eugene Dokes in the 70th district. The winner faces Bill Otto of St. Charles.
Democrat Paul Berry of Maryland Heights and Republican Patrick Brennan of St. Louis filed in the 72nd district. Berry faces incumbents Eileen Grant McGeoghegan and Mary Nichols in the Democratic Primary.
Democrat Michael Butler filed in the 79th to face Martin Casas. Democrat Mike Owens filed in the 84th to create a four-way field with incumbent Karla May, former State Rep Hope Whitehead and Samir Mehta. Republican Linda Mello filed in the 89th district to challenge John Diehl.
Democrat Deb Lavender filed in the 90th district to face off with Kirkswood Republican Rick Stream.
Democrat Bill Pinkston of St. Louis County filed in the 99th District to likely face Andrew Koenig in November. Koenig still has a primary challenge to get past (vs Richard La Violette). Republican Ed Rowles of Chesterfield filed to face incumbent Don Gosen in the 101st district primary.
Democrat Terry Lesinski of St. Peters filed to face Republican incumbent Kathie Conway in the 104th. Democrat Debbie Bixler of St. Charles filed to probably face Republican incumbent Mark Parkinson in the 105th. Parkinson drew a primary from a less notable Jason Smith. Tom Fann of St. Peters filed to face Chrissy Sommer (Sommer is facing a primary as well) in the 106th district. Democrat Rod Hoffman of St. Peters filed to face the winner of a Ron Hicks/AC Dienoff primary (which is probably gonna be Hicks).
Republican Ian McFarland filed in the 111th to face a primary v. Derrick Good. The winner faces former State Rep Michael Frame. Daniel James of Imperial filed to face Dean Asbury in the 112th. The Republican nominee is still likely to be Paul Wieland. Apologies to Avery Fortenberry.
The Constitution Party got a confused candidate in Richard Hoxsey of Butler, who filed in the new 120th but may have intended to file in another district (the current 120th includes parts of Bates County).
Democrat Bart Ziegenhorn of Sikeston filed to force a primary v. retired High School Teacher Mike Marsh for the 148th district. The winner faces the winner of the Holly Rehder/Josh Bill primary.
2008 winner of America’s Got Talent Neal Boyd will be testing his political talent this summer as he filed as a Republican to face incumbent Democrat Steve Hodges in the Bootheel 149th district.
Democrat Ryan William Holder of Advance filed in the 151st district. Holder ran for the seat in 2004, losing in the Democratic Primary to Bryce Wooley.
The Constitution Party got a State House ca
ndidate who filed in the right district as Sue Beck of Shell Knob filed in the 158th district. She will face the winner of a Scott Fitzpatrick/Mike Bennett/Frank Washburn Republican primary.
So, the 2002/2010 official scores for the districts with filing activity
HD012: 56/44R (no Dems)
HD022: 92/8D (no Reps)
HD067: 80.5/19.5D (no Reps)
HD079: 90/10D (no Reps)
HD084: 89.5/10.5D (no Reps)
HD089: 65/35R (no Dems)
So the Republicans have candidates in 134 districts. The Democrats have candidates in 110 districts. Only 81 districts have a Democrat v. Republican race, despite the whole redistricting year thing.
Filing is still open until Friday for Governor, the State Senate (Districts 5 and 7), and the State House (Districts 49, 93, and 112).
Here’s the top 25 House Races, districts with a Republican incumbent or a Dem v. Republican match up and a the official 2002/2010 rating of less than 10% in favor of either side. Districts ranked in no particular order
HD005: Lindell Shumake (R-inc) v. Tom Shively (D-inc)
HD014: Ron Schieber (R-inc) v. Eric Pendell (D)
HD015: Kevin Corlew (R) v. Jon Carpenter, Shon Adamson, or Carol Suter
HD020: Brent Lasater (R-inc) v. John Mayfield (D)
HD029: Noel Torpey (R-inc) v. John Sutton (D)
HD039: Joe Don McGaugh (R) v. Will Talbert (D)
HD040: Paul Quinn (D-inc) v. John Kallash or Jim Hansen
HD041: Ed Schieffer (D-inc) v. Beverly Steiniger (R)
HD043: Jay Hougton (R-inc) v. Ed Lockwood (D)
HD044: Ken Jacob (D) v. Caleb Rowden, Mike Becker, Chris Dwyer or Dennis Smith
HD047: Darrel Hansen (R) v. Nancy Copenhaver or John Wright
HD048: Ron Monnig (D) v. Dave Muntzel or Stephanie Fuemmeler
HD053: Glen Kolkmeyer (R) v. Holmes Osborne (D)
HD057: Wanda Brown (R-inc) v. Don Bullock (D)
HD070: Bill Otto (D) v. Eugene Dokes or Tyler Holyfield
HD090: Rick Stream (R-inc) v. Deb Lavender (D)
HD094: Cloria Brown (R-inc/probably) v. Vicki Englund (D)
HD095: Marsha Haefner (R-inc) v. Joe Zelle (D)
HD097: John McCaherty (R-inc) v. Martin Sam Komo (D)
HD108: Chrissy Sommer (R-inc) v. Tom Fann (D)
HD112: Paul Wieland (R-inc/probably) v. Dean Asbury (D) or Daniel James (D)
HD132: Melissa Leach (R-inc) v. Charlie Norr (D)
HD144: Paul Fitzwater (R-inc) v. Michael Jackson (D)
HD149: Steve Hodges (D-inc) v. Neal Boyd (R)
HD150: Kent Hampton (R-inc) v. Tom Todd (D)
Also receiving votes (the next 6 in both directions): Denny Hoskins (R-inc) v. Nancy Maxwell (D) (HD54), Lincoln Hough (R-inc) v. Casey Clark (D) (HD135), Jeanne Kirkton (D-inc) v. Elizabeth Deal (R) (HD91) and Genise Montecillo (D-inc) v. Al Faulitsch (R) (HD92). All apologies to Wayne Henke, Kevin Morgan, and Republicans running in 60% Democratic districts.
As for the State Senate, the top races are..
SD1: Lembke (R-inc) v. Dem (Sue Schoemehl, Michael Vogt or Scott Sifton)
SD3: Fallert (D) v. Rep (Gary Romine or Terry Varner)
SD19: Schaefer (R-inc) v. Mary Still (D)
SD25: Terry Swinger (D) v. Rep (Billy Pat Wright or Doug Libla)
and i’ll leave the 5th spot for the primaries due to a variety of uncontested races remaining for the Senate.
“Second to last day popular day to file. Folks don’t want to tempt fate by planning on the last day and then their car won’t start.” – Dave Drebes
Filing Month is wrapping up, with the last day of filing being tomorrow (Tuesday! Tuesday! Tuesday!). So traffic picked up slightly on the 2nd to last day of filing.
So here’s a report of the activity today.
Robert “Bob” Poole (R-Macon) and Hector Maldonado (R-Sullivan) filed for the US Senate. Maldonado ran for the Senate in 2010, finishing 5th of 9th in the Republican primary. Jonathan Dine (LP-Riverside) also filed today, making his second straight bid for the Senate.
Fred Sauer (R-St. Louis) of the Missouri Roundtable for Life filed for Governor today, presumably due to the lack of anti-cloning credentials displayed by Dave Spence and Bill Randles and in opposition to Jay Nixon’s secret plan to clone himself and send his clone army to run in Republican districts.
Robb Cunningham (LP-St. Louis) filed for the 1st District, making his 4th straight Congressional candidacy.
Eric Mayer (D-Camdenton) filed in the 3rd District. Mayer unsuccessfully ran for Camden County Presiding Commissioner in 2010.
Mike Moon (R-Springfield) filed to face Billy Long in the 7th District. Moon finished with 4% in a 6th place finish for the same seat in 2010. Kevin Craig (LP-Powersite) also filed for his 5th straight Congressional bid.
And the Missouri General Assembly
In the State Senate: Jacquelyn Thomas (R-Florissant) filed in the 13th and ElGene Ver Dught (D-Higginsville) filed in the 21st. Ver Dught is an attorney and mediator. Republican Incumbent David Pearce and Mike McGhee are facing off in the 21st. Reddit Hudson and Gina Walsh are facing each other in the 13th.
In the State House:
2010 candidate Tim Remole (R-Excelo) filed for a second bid in the recently reopened 6th district. The 6th is a Macon/Randolph/Linn County district that was Randy Asbury’s choice for a new district until realizing the effects of moving his family north into the district. The Republican primary in the 6th has 4 candidates, Ron Gillett of Moberly, Tony Askew of Atlanta, Alan Wyatt of Macon, and Tim Remole. Democrat Diana Scott of La Plata filed last week.
Patrick Riehle (D-Raytown) filed in the 28th district to challenge incumbent Tom McDonald (D-Independence), who is moving south to represent a district that overlaps with the southern half of the current 49th district.
John Sutton (D-Independence) filed in the 29th district to challenge freshman Republican Noel Torpey. Sutton is a High School Teacher at Van Horn High School in Independence. The 29th is a fusion of parts of the current 52nd (which Torpey won in 2010) and the 49th (which is the bluer part of the 29th).
Darrel Hansen (R-Clark) filed in the 47th district to face the winner of the Nancy Copenhaver/John Wright Democratic primary. Machinist Donald Long (D-Harrisonville) filed to face Freshman Republican Rick Brattin in the 55th. Auctioneer Don Bullock (D-Windsor) filed to face Freshman Republican Wanda Brown in the 57th.
Former one-term Republican Steve Henderson of Versailles filed to create a 3 man primary in the 58th. Henderson served a term from 2001 to 2003 before losing a primary after his county was split in two. Attorney Vonnieta E. Trickey (D-Russellville) filed to challenge freshman Republican Mike Bernskoetter of Jeff City. Janine Steck (LP-Jeff City) is also running in the new 59th district.
Libertarian John Alsup of St. Charles filed in the new 65th to challenge Anne Zerr. Former 2006 House/2008 Senate candidate Jim Trout filed in the new 83rd district to face off with Gina Mitten. No Republicans have filed in the 83rd. Al Faulitsch (R-STL) filed in the new 92nd to face Genise Montecillo. Tony Leech (R-STL) filed to face the winner of a Scott Sifton/Joe Montecillo primary.
Chuck Brodell (D-Imperial) withdrew in the 112th and was replaced by Dean Asbury (D-Arnold). Asbury will probably face Paul Wieland (R-Imperial) unless there’s a surge of support for Avery Fortenberry.
Libertarian Bill Boone of Springfield filed in the 137th district. Ted Sheppard (R-Cabool) filed in the Texas County centered 142nd to face Don Bordwell (R-Plato), Chris Purvis (R-Houston, and Robert Ross (R-Eunice). Finally we see which Texas County city is the most powerful. Democrat R. A. Pendergrass of Bakersfield filed in the Howell County centered 154th. He will face the winner of a Shawn Rhoads/Kathleen Hensley/Stan Watson primary (all from West Plains). Pendergrass is a Missouri States-West Plains facility member who lost a bid for the State Senate to Chuck Purgason in 2004.
Also, Jane Cunningham withdrew from her bid to be a 7th Senate district candidate after finding that they weren’t gonna give her a district. Travis Fitzwater withdrew from running in the 49th district after finding that Jeanie Riddle didn’t have a Senate District to run in for this election.
The official 02/10 stats on the districts with candidate activity:
HD065: 54/46R (no Dem filed)
HD083: 65/35D (no Rep filed)
HD137: 65/35R (no Dem filed)
HD142: 61/39R (no Dem filed)
After today’s filing, Republicans have candidates in 128 districts and Democrats have candidates in 98 districts.
Using the 02/10 scale, the 10 bluest districts without a Dem candidate are
HD11 (South Buchanan/North Platte, Galen Higdon): 53/47D
HD14 (Platte County, Ron Schieber): 51/49D
HD48 (Boonville, assorted counties, open seat): 50/50
HD90 (Kirkwood, Rick Stream): 52/48R
HD106 (St. Charles, Chrissy Sommer): 52/48R
HD119 (Franklin County, Dave Hinson): 53/47R
HD60 (Jeff City, Jay Barnes): 53.5/46.5R
HD35 (Lee’s Summit/Parts of KC, Gary Cross): 54/46R
HD64 (St. Charles/Part of Lincoln, open seat): 54/46R
HD65 (St. Charles, Ann Zerr): 54/46R
So it’s quite a few light-red districts to pick from there. There’s also the 116th (Ste. Genevieve/St. Francois/Perryville) and 126th (Bates/Vernon) which are bluer districts than the Shively/Shumake battle in the new 5th.
The reddest districts without a Republican are HD149 (Steve Hodges, 50/50) and HD117 (Linda Black, 52.5/47.5D). Both of which are Dems who defeated Republican opponents in 2010.
Democrats have a candidate in all 46 districts where they top 55%, compared to 14 Republicans in those districts.
There are 29 Democratic candidates in the 45 districts where neither party has an advantage of 10% or more. 42 Republicans are running in those districts.
Democrats have 23 candidates in the 72 districts with a +10R 02/10 spread.
So for all unfiled candidates with functional cars, tomorrow is the big day. And maybe there’s a day or two more if incumbents randomly drop out tomorrow and extend filing for a seat or two.
You can follow the filing here. For best results in finding new candidates on Monday/Tuesday, just do a text search for the current date.
There are two days left in candidate filing, and as with anything involving candidates and possible candidates, there will be more candidates filing on Monday and Tuesday. So here’s a dry journey of the races without a filed major party candidate.
Blaine Luetkemeyer gets a new district number and a new district shape (the new 3rd looks like a worm attempting to eat St. Louis), but Blaine doesn’t have a Democratic opponent for the 3rd. Luetkemeyer became the first major party candidate to get a free pass from the other major party since Bill Clay in 1970 back in 2010, (edit: so a Dem not running v. him in 2012 would make it two elections in a row). Libertarian Steven Wilson is seeking to oppose Luetkemeyer though.
The other 7 districts are contested by both parties. The only major party candidates currently unopposed in their primary are Luetkemeyer, Teresa Hensley/Vicky Hartzler in the 4th, Emanuel Cleaver in the 5th and Jim Evans (D-Republic) in the 7th.
Under the fold, the State Senate and the State House!
Now in the State Senate, the Republicans don’t have a candidate in the 5th, 9th, 11th, and 13th. None of which is a huge surprise. The Republicans still have Jane Cunningham filed in the 7th despite the fact that the 7th moved cross-state to Kansas City. So might as well count that as a “seat with no major party candidate filed)
As for the Democrats. Well. No candidate in the 15th (59/41R), 21st (55/45D), 23rd (56/44R), 27th (66/34R), 29th (70/30R), 31st (54/46R), or 33rd (66/34R). So that’s 7 of 17 seats. In 2008, only one of those seats was uncontested (the 29th). The 02/10 numbers are not perfect (because they count uncontested state house races, and inflates the results from places like the 21st). But it’s a mix of areas that at least drew a candidate or two, even against incumbent Senators.
The House has Republicans in 125 seats and Democrats in 93 seats, with a Democrat/Republican matchup in 55 seats.
The most Democratic seat with a Republican candidate is the 24th where House Democratic Leader Mike Talboy is facing his first Republican opponent ever in a 85/15 Dem seat.
The most Republican seat with a Democratic candidate is the 134th, where Democrat James Owen will face the winner of the Republican primary in a seat around 2-1 Republican.
As for Blueish seats with no candidate.. the 29th (South Independence) has a Dem candidate who hasn’t filed yet. The 11th (Platte/South Buchanan) is still Galen Higdon v. nobody. The 14th is Ron Schieber v. nobody.
The seats that are around 50/50 in some measurement (using the official state measurements) with no Democratic candidates are the 119th (Franklin County, Dave Hinson), the 35th (Lee’s Summit with part of Kansas City, Gary Cross), the 60th (all-Jeff City, Jay Barnes) and the 90th (Kirkwood, Rick Stream).
The 48th (Boonville and assorted parts of Howard/Saline/Pettis Counties, Open) is near that list. Along with the 57th (Henry and Benton Counties, Wanda Brown) and 106th (Eastern St. Charles, Chrissy Sommer).
Of the districts with one of the measurements showing a D/R split of under 10% either way or an incumbent in a more challenging district, Republicans haven’t filed in 3 of those seats, Democrats haven’t filed in 18 of those seats.
Or to put in in chart form (with the 02/10 numbers used)
Don’t you love it when 50/50 is a mark with 59 seats on one side and 99 seats on the other side? But then again, Democrats only hold 57 seats, so 59 or 62 or 64 is an improvement. Aw, 2010.
Ultimately, this year in Missouri redistricting is brought to you by chaos (which is the new normal in Missouri Politics). But I don’t think you can place your bets on the House map going away. Probably the same for the Senate map, but anything is possible there. And definitely the same for the Congressional map (compactness is apparently just a word, not an order)
For the sake of history, the number of legislative candidates who filed on the last two days in 2008? 45 candidates.
The number of legislative candidates filing on the last two days in 2010? 42.
(And some of them actually won, although that list for non-“Incumbent withdraws suddenly” scenarios is mostly Kurt Schaefer, Cole McNary, Eileen McGeoghegan and Penny Hubbard)
The maps are as set as they’re ever gonna be. Time to roll, candidates.
As you may have noticed in the last 10 months of Senate redistricting, the process of redistricting has been hard to figure out in regards to the Senate.
After the passage of a Tentative Map on February 23rd, the window for public comment opened. Every e-mail except a few were negative. Most hit the same general points pushed by Republicans like Jim Lembke and Jane Cunningham, and there were a lot of people in the New 10th who weren’t happy either.
Presenting 10 comments from the hundreds of e-mails which stood out for various reasons.
1. (2/27/2012) I heard a comment by one of the commissioners that he did not believe this would give an advantage to either of
the political parties. “Show Me Progress” thinks otherwise –
Whoops, guess we should have kept quiet for longer.
2. (2/27/2012) This is a real bummer. I don’t want to be represented by someone living 150 miles away.
Yeah, but until they elect all the Senators in years ending in 2, you’re gonna get that somewhere in Missouri. The 7/10 split is a more public and well-known example of that. But the current 3rd district was represented for 2 years by a St. Louis area Senator from 2003 to 2005 and four counties went 6 years between electing Senators. In the 7/10 split, every county in the new 10th was in an even-numbered district and elected a Senator in 2010. In the 1990s, the 28th Senate district was split in two and dispersed between the 12th and 18th districts. Thus Steve Danner was the Senator representing the Southwest Missouri from 1993 to 1995.
So, you look at the history, and Missouri has done far worse if you look at just the Senatorial districts and disregard the Senators and de-facto Senators.
As to the reaction to Jolie Justus’ de-facto stint representing East-Central Missouri. I guess we could tally to see how many respondents correctly spelled her last name.
3. (3/4/2012) Senate District 7 (Cunningham Republican, Chesterfield) in St. Louis County which is up for election this year was arbitrarily moved across the state to a very urban, Democrat district in Kansas City that previously had an even number and was therefore not up for election.
This appears purposeful to increase the Democrat vote in a very liberal area for the upcoming
critical national and state elections not to mention provide an extra Democrat senator for
the next two legislative sessions.
Who knew that a likely to be unopposed (or minimally opposed) Democratic State Senate candidate in Kansas City was going to lead to a turnout spike in the city? The second part is technically correct, we get a free Senator for 2 years, which would be awesome if we got enough Senators to mount a filibuster. But our Senate caucus can field a baseball team in 2013.
4. (3/5/2012) The population numbers in St. Louis City and County were changed enough to yield only one Republican Senator from the area in the near future rather than the present four. Without having vigorous Republican senate campaigns in St. Louis County, the needed 150,000 votes needed to win statewide elections for Republicans is lost. This map is clearly a Democrat’s and a liberal’s dream map and unfortunately the Republicans on the Commission gave away the store.
The clear advantage given away to the Democrats for the national and statewide campaigns (Obama, McCaskill, Nixon) by transferring District 7 into downtown Kansas City to energize that liberal population not only for the Democrat primary but the general election. It is hard to imagine Republicans would vote to so benefit the Democrats in such a critical election year.
If you actually look at the St. Louis election results, you’ll be amused at the calls of how unfair it is that St. Louis County wouldn’t mostly be represented by Republicans. Oh no. An area that hasn’t been won by a statewide Republican since 2000 won’t have a majority of the Senate delegation.
Also, we covered the mass conspiracy to energize the liberals with an easy District 7 win.
5. (3/5/2012) Missouri’s proposed re-districting unfairly puts Republicans up for re-election in districts disproportionately populated by Democrats. State population migration to these newly enhanced Democratic districts further disadvantages Republican candidates with the additional potential of a loss of seats.
(plays a violin)
This is a deviation from the usual talking point that people are migrating to Republican areas.
“Oh no, we won’t be able to keep a 26-8 advantage in the Missouri Senate. How unfair!”
6. (3/6/2012) Please say “no” to the new State Senatorial map. Do not succumb to the governor. The map is heavily in favor of the Democratic party. It is unfair to St. Louis County residents by producing more Senators from urban areas with lower populations.
I would be very disappointed to think that my Republican Representatives are intentionally trying to push the election in favor of Obama cronies, who are bringing the demise of our country and our freedoms as we have known them since the beginning, to our country. Our children and grand-children’s futures are at stake in this next election.
Forget about infighting and do the right thing for Missouri residents and our country and say “yes” to the previous judicial map.
I can’t imagine how this line of debate didn’t succeed.
7. (3/7/2012) Please drop the uncontitutional map in Senate District 10. We do NOT want Senator Justus from Kansas City to be our senator. We did not vote for such a man!
Not sure if a subtle slur or total confusion.
The e-mails on the 7th, 8th, and 9th mainly involve people using the commission to just adopt the “2nd judicial commission map”, which is likely not constitutional anyways. Some of the e-mails advised a small fix in Springfield, which looks to have been acknowledged. One e-mailer suggested she would move to South America if Obama was re-elected.
8. (3/8/2012) Sir, I’ve been reading several article’s that are saying that the “New” redistricting maps will leave us Rural Missourians, basically, at the mercy of the Big City voters. Please do not think that us Rural People are just peons that do not know what is happening. In other words, we are not dummies that can’t read or write and/or know who we want to be our Representatives and Senators. I’ve been requested to ask you and your Commission to stay with the Second Judicial Commission Map, basically, so that we,as Rural Voters, do not have the Large City Voters telling us what to do. I thank you for your time.
“I’ve been requested to ask you” is probably not an ideal line to include in the e-mail when they’ve already gotten a variety of e-mails saying the exact same thing. Extra points for saying that, then saying that the big cities will tell us what to do. Yeah, they’re really dominating the Senate, aren’t they.
The whole Urban/Rural thing is a traditional redistricting problem which was handled in the 60s after the One-Man/One-Vote decisions. Once upon a time in Missouri, Worth County had a State Representative.
In the 2002 map, 12 districts were in Jackson County or St. Louis City/County. In the 2012 map, 11 districts were in Jackson County or St. Louis City/County. So if this map was a scheme to put down the Rural people, they sure did it subtlely.
Granted, judging by the addresses of the people bringing up the tyranny of urban districts crushing the suburbs, a lot of them are from Suburbs. The last quote was from a Rural Area though, from Bloomfield in Stoddard County, which was in the same district on the 2nd Judicial Map and the Tentative Map.
9. (3/8/2012) How can any responsible senate committee take a highly republican and
rural district like District 7 in Chesterfield and
move it to an urban, Democratic district 200 miles away?
Chesterfield? rural area? yeah, 70 years ago it was. Now? Not quite.
Barring more successful lawsuits, the Senate Redistricting Saga is over. And despite hundreds of e-mails saying the same thing, the vote went from 8-2 to 10-0. Amazing how trying to appeal to partisanship failed to swing the 4 pro-map Republicans away from their map. Amazing.
Now we live in a tyrannical state where Democrats have a shot at 10 of 34 Senate seats. Maybe 13 or 14 if the Republican partisans move to South America in 2013. Get your duct tape.