The latest from Public Policy Polling says: Claire 45, Akin 44

So, the changes from last week:

Akin’s support with Rs up from 71% to 78%, Akin’s support with Ds up from 8% to 15%, Akin’s support with Independents down from 45% to 38%.

McCaskill’s overall approval down 1%, down 7% with Dems, down 5% with Reps and up 2% with Independents.

Yes, this doesn’t add up, because this poll was 33D/35R/32I, up from 30D/39R/32I. Nice to see that the likely voter universe has changed a bit in the last week. (Their likely voter model may still hang up on you if you didn’t vote in 2010)

But in the spirit of fairness, I hope for a poll next week conducted over days 1 and 2 of the DNC.

Full results

August 20th flash poll results in parentheses

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve 39% (42%)

Disapprove 55% (55%)

Not sure 5% (3%)

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Favorable 51% (48%)

Unfavorable 43% (45%)

Not sure 6% (6%)

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama 41% (42%)

Mitt Romney 53% (52%)

Undecided 6% (7%)

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?

Approve 40% (41%)

Disapprove 55% (53%)

Not sure 5% (5%)

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Todd Akin?

Favorable 33% (24%)

Unfavorable 56% (58%)

Not sure 11% (18%)

Q6 The candidates for Senate this fall are Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Todd Akin. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Claire McCaskill 45% (43%)

Todd Akin 44% (44%)

Undecided 11% (13%)

Q7 Do you think Todd Akin should withdraw from the US Senate race, or not?

He should withdraw 37%

He should not 54%

Not sure 9%

Q8 Do you accept Todd Akin’s apology for the comments he made last week, or not?

Accept his apology 53%

Do not 40%

Not sure 7%

Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain 49% (49%)

Barack Obama 44% (44%)

Someone else/Don’t remember 7% (7%)

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat

conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal 8% (9%)

Somewhat liberal 12% (16%)

Moderate 33% (27%)

Somewhat conservative 29% (29%)

Very conservative 19% (19%)

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman 55% (53%)

Man 45% (47%)

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat 33% (30%)

Republican 35% (39%)

Independent/Other 32% (32%)

Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American, press 2. If other, press 3.

White 82% (74%)

African-American 10% (-)

Other 8% (26%)

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are

older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29: 18% (12%)

30 to 45: 25% (22%)

46 to 65: 37% (46%)

Older than 65: 20% (20%)

The topline numbers

Akin 44, McCaskill 43

The fav/unfav for Akin is 24% favorable and 58% unfavorable. Compared to 41% job approval for McCaskill and 53% disapproval.

Does a poll of 500 people taken over 3 hours of a Monday Night mean much more than a Leroy Neiman painting?

We’ll see. For one thing, Public Policy didn’t poll an Akin/McCaskill matchup for the last 3 months before tonight. So we don’t know if the universe was like SurveyUSA’s universe (Akin +10) or Rasmussen’s (Akin +3).

So let’s look at the bits and pieces

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?

Approve 41%

Disapprove 53%

Not sure 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Todd Akin?

Favorable 24%

Unfavorable 58%

Not sure 18%

Q3 The candidates for Senate this fall are Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Todd Akin. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Claire McCaskill 43%

Todd Akin 44%

Undecided 13%

Q4 Do you think Todd Akin’s recent comments over the weekend about rape were appropriate or inappropriate, or are you not familiar with what Akin said about rape?

Appropriate 9%

Inappropriate 75%

Not familiar with Akin’s comments 16%

Q5 This past weekend, Todd Akin said that abortion should be illegal even in the case of rape, because, “If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down.” Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with Akin’s comments?

Strongly agree 6%

Somewhat agree 12%

Somewhat disagree 14%

Strongly disagree 65%

Not sure 4%

Q6 Generally speaking, do you identify as prochoice or pro-life on the issue of abortion?

Pro-choice 40%

Pro-life 52%

Not sure 7%

Q7 Which of the following statements comes closest to your position on abortion: it should be legal in all cases; it should generally be  illegal with exception for rape, incest, or protection of the mother’s life; or should it be completely illegal?

Legal in all cases 33%

Illegal except for rape, incest, or the mother’s life 47%

Completely illegal 14%

Not sure 5%

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain 49%

Barack Obama 44%

Someone else/Don’t remember 7%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal 9%

Somewhat liberal 16%

Moderate 27%

Somewhat conservative 29%

Very conservative 19%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman 53%

Man 47%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat 30%

Republican 39%

Independent/Other 32%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.

White 74%

Other 26%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29- 12%

30 to 45- 22%

46 to 65- 46%

Older than 65- 20%

So the splits!

To be frank… the partisan split on Q11 is based on some sort of alternate universe. The sample in May was 35D/33R/33I. The 2010 exit polls were 34D/37R/28I. The reason why one night polls are not typically done is because they do not produce results that can be passed off as reality in regards to certain characteristics of humanity.

Or you can believe that the demographics of MO drastically changed in 3 months.

But take the partisan splits, which are

Dems: Claire, 88-8

Reps: Akin, 71-10

Indys: Akin, 45-41

You put them with the party samples used in May, and Claire leads by 6% (47-41). You put them with the 2010 exit polls, and Claire leads by 3% (45-42). You put them with the 2008 exit polls (to be extreme) and she leads by 10%. Claire also leads by 6% (47-41) if you use SurveyUSA’s sample from a poll that Akin led by 11%.

Back in May, Claire led by 2 with women and was behind by 2 with men. The PPP says it’s +10 Claire with Women and +14 Akin with men.

And PPP has Claire up with every age-demo except 30-45 (where she trails 52-33)

I’d comment on the 18-29 results (which were the most pro-Claire but the least pro-Choice) but the sample was 60 people at home on a Monday Night.

How about we wait for a more substantive poll on the matter? But if you’re Todd Akin looking for some justification to continue your increasingly doomed campaign, you can use this flawed Republican-heavy poll to make your case to stick around.

Sarah Steelman (r), kind of not quite yet candidate for the open 2010 Missouri U.S. Senate seat, had this to say today via Twitter:

Wow just landed in dc counted 13 construction cranes around the capitol. No recession here – wonder why? about 2 hours ago from web

I had no idea that anecdotal counts of construction cranes were a leading economic indicator. Let’s see what the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics actually show:

…Table 3.  Civilian labor force and unemployment by state and selected area, seasonally adjusted

(Numbers in thousands)

District of Columbia

Civilian labor force

Jan. 2008 – 330.6

Nov. 2008 – 332.6

Dec. 2008 – 332.8

Jan. 2009 – 332.3

Unemployed – Number

Jan. 2008 – 19.6

Nov. 2008 – 26.6

Dec. 2008 – 27.4

Jan. 2009 – 30.8

Unemployed – Percent of labor force

Jan. 2008 – 5.9

Nov. 2008 – 8.0

Dec. 2008 – 8.2

Jan. 2009 – 9.3…

…Missouri

Civilian labor force

Jan. 2008 – 3,017.9

Nov. 2008 – 3,014.0

Dec. 2008 – 3,017.5

Jan. 2009 – 3,008.5

Unemployed – Number

Jan. 2008 – 165.0

Nov. 2008 – 204.9

Dec. 2008 – 213.0

Jan. 2009 – 241.3

Unemployed – Percent of labor force

Jan. 2008 – 5.5

Nov. 2008 – 6.8

Dec. 2008 – 7.1

Jan. 2009 – 8.0…

[emphasis added]

A question for Sarah Steelman: If you think a place with 9.3% unemployment (Washington, D.C.) isn’t in a recession do you think a place with 8.0% unemployment (Missouri) isn’t in a recession, too? Just asking. After all, you’re supposed to have a degree in economics:

Sarah Steelman was born and raised in Jefferson City, Missouri. She graduated from Jefferson City High School, and then earned the degrees of B.A. in History and Masters in Economics from the University of Missouri.

She then worked as an Economist for the Missouri Department of Revenue, Deputy Director of the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, adjunct professor of Economics at Lincoln University, Executive Director of Big Brothers and Big Sisters in Rolla, and an investment broker for AG Edwards….

[emphasis added]

Maybe she should ask Mizzou for her money back.

That republican Senate primary is going to be fun to watch. Between the two of them there isn’t enough coherent thought, if it was condensed into gasoline, to run a tiny mini bike around the inside of a generic doughnut shaped cereal product.