On June 30th Rasmussen released the results of a poll of 500 “likely voters” in Missouri taken on June 28th. The margin of error is 4.5%:

3* 2010 Missouri Senate Race

Roy Blunt (R) – 48%

Robin Carnahan (D) – 43%

Some other candidate – 3%

Not sure – 6%

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight on Rasmussen:

….Right now, we are identifying about a 4.5-point Republican-leaning house effect in Rasmussen’s polls, relative to a robust average, weighted based on pollster quality….

….We are using the new version of the pollster ratings for this update, by the way, which still rates Rasmussen as a somewhat above-average pollster. The problem is not necessarily that Rasmussen is bad but rather that they’re so dominant; something like 40 percent of our state-level polls were put out by Rasmussen, and they are just about the only pollster at all in some states. A guiding principal of our house effects adjustment is that nobody should be advantaged (or disadvantaged) simply because they poll more often, so it effectively mitigates the impact of Rasmussen flooding the zone, as it would for any other pollster which did something similar. With that said, Rasmussen certainly could be right, so it’s useful to check sometimes on what what the overall Senate picture would look like through their lens….

There are some interesting results for other questions in the poll:

5* A proposal has been made to repeal the health care bill and stop it from going into effect. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose a proposal to repeal the health care bill?

48% Strongly favor

13% Somewhat favor

 7% Somewhat oppose

28% Strongly oppose

 4% Not sure

They should have asked their respondents about keeping government out of Medicare.

8* Suppose the new Arizona immigration law was being considered for your state. Would you favor or oppose passage of that law in your state?

56% Favor

29% Oppose

15% Not sure

I wonder what their opinion would be about law enforcement asking them for their papers?

11* Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party Movement?  

22% Yes

54% No

24% Not sure

24% are not sure? Maybe if they had used the term teabagger there might have been a little less confusion.

Gallup has a bit more on the teabagger/republican hybrid:

July 2, 2010

Tea Party Supporters Overlap Republican Base

Eight out of 10 Tea Party supporters are Republicans

….While Tea Party supporters are not universal in their backing of Republican candidates, they skew heavily in that direction. About 80% of Tea Party supporters say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their district, slightly lower than the projected 95% Republican vote among conservative Republicans.

This suggests that the potential impact of the Tea Party on Republican chances of winning in congressional and senatorial races this fall — even if supporters turn out in record numbers — may be slightly less than would be expected….

[emphasis added]

Ah, it’s just a bunch of republicans who are pissed off that they’re out of power.

It’d be really interesting to see those Rasmussen crosstabs for Missouri.

Congressman Emanuel Cleaver (D), from April 27, 2008:

…And so the president’s [George W. Bush] poll numbers dropped down to where they are now, twenty seven. Satan is at twenty nine. [laughter, applause] Some of the lowest poll numbers in the history of the republic, since we’ve been keeping poll numbers…

[emphasis added]

From Plunderbund:

28% of Americans Believe the Military Should Have No Civilian Oversight?

by Joseph on June 26, 2010

….Does ANYONE really think we should have unbridled military control? Without civilian oversight?

Did Rasmussen limit their call list to 14 year old boys who just watched Taps for the first time?….

I’m almost surprised that the number was that low.

The Rasmussen poll:

28% Say Civilian Control of Military Bad for U.S.

Friday, June 25, 2010

….a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 44% of U.S. voters think civilian control of the military is good for the country.

Twenty-eight percent (28%) think it’s a bad idea to have civilians with the final say over military leaders. Another 28% are not sure which course is best….

….The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on June 23-24, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence….

[emphasis added]

That just may be about right, given the number of batshit crazy people in America right now.

What would Lincoln or Truman have done?  

Rasmussen conducted a poll of 500 likely voters in Missouri on June 2, 2010. The margin of error is 4.5%.

3* 2010 Missouri Senate Race

Roy Blunt (R) – 45%

Robin Carnahan (D) – 44%

Some other candidate – 4%

Not sure – 6%

Do you think “Some other candidate” might be Chuck Purgason?

Interesting. These Rasmussen numbers have Roy Blunt’s (r – lobbyists) numbers trending down. Maybe it’s about the oil.

11* In the long-term, will the recent Gulf Oil Spill have a devastating impact on the environment, a major impact, a modest impact, a minor impact, or will it have little lasting impact on the environment?

47% Devastating impact on the environment

35% Major impact….

12* Who should pay for the clean-up from the oil leak – the companies who were drilling for oil, the government or both?

81% Companies who were drilling for oil

1% Government

17% Both

1% Not sure….

There is something of a caveat. The founder of the Great Orange Satan has issues with Rasmussen:

….Remember, Rasmussen has two modes — the narrative setting mode, which he’s used to great effect this year to fuel the “Democrats are doomed” narrative, and the “get it right” mode he uses the closer we get to the actual election. Well, we’re not that close to November yet, but apparently he felt threatened by having such massive outliers vis a vis other pollsters. So he rushed new polling more in line with the composite polling trendlines.

It’s kind of hard to set narratives when you become a laughing stock in the political world.

.

Nate Silver also has some issues:

Blast from Rasmussen’s Past

…While 2000 was generally a fairly rough year for pollsters, who had to deal with an unenthusiastic electorate, some third-party challengers, and some late-breaking developments like Bush’s DUI charge, Rasmussen was the worst of the lot, missing by an average of 5.7 points. They also called 7 states wrong.** Some of this was the result of bias, as they were 3.5 points too high on Bush’s margin in the states they surveyed, on average.

Although Rasmussen has certainly gotten a lot of things right, their high pollster rating was mostly based on their strong performance in 2004 and 2006. Their rating is likely to go down now that we’ve found their 2000 data, and are adding in the 2008 data, when their performance was mediocre.

So, we’ll take this interpretation of the senate race in Missouri with a grain of salt.

Edit: Happy days in Bluntland

Charlie Cook: “I suspect a Republican gain of between four and six seats [in the Senate], predicated on Democrats being unlikely to beat any Republican open-seat Senate candidate or being able to unseat any Republican Senate incumbent.”

Roy Blunt: “Charlie Cook, the respected independent, non-partisan analyst predicts our campaign will win”

If you can’t rely on a prediction made 11 months out, what can you rely on?

———-

Political Fix: “Blunt sees silver lining in poll that gives slight edge to rival”

Blunt’s campaign also showed reason for optimism in the poll’s finding that President Obama had a 47 percent approval rating among the 500 Missourians who participated in the telephone survey.

Which is one of the higher Obama approval ratings from recent polls i’ve seen in Missouri. Keep partying Roy, you’ll figure out better lines to use in your e-mails.

Rasmussen, 12/15/09, 500 likely voters

Robin Carnahan (D) 46%

Roy Blunt (r) 44%

Other 4%

Undecided 6%

Favorable ratings: Robin 51%, Blunt 50%

Job approval ratings*: Nixon 63%, Obama 47%

Health Care legislation: 40% For, 57% Against with a 50/50 split on a “government-sponsored non-profit health insurance option” that drops after a push poll question.

It’s still effectively a draw, 11 months out.

(Edit: * – Rasmussen’s “strongly approve”/”somewhat approve” methodology could be inflating job approval ratings. Although i’m pretty sure that Obama’s job approval rating in Missouri according to Rasmussen is higher than his national job approval rating according to Rasmussen, which is confusing)

From a Rasmussen poll of 1000 republican likely voters taken on November 5, 2008 – the margin of error was 3%:

…I know it’s a long way off, but if you had your choice for the next Republican nominee for President would you choose Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty or Charlie Crist?

64% Palin

11% Romney

12% Huckabee

4% Jindal

1% Pawlenty

2% Crist

6% Not sure

[emphasis added]

And under “what color is the sky in your world?”:

…Thinking back on the Presidential Campaign did Sarah Palin help or hurt John McCain’s chance of winning the election?

69% Help

20% Hurt

6% She had no impact

5% Not sure

[emphasis added]

The margin of delusion was close to 70%.

Exit Polls: Palin Hurt Ticket with Large Number of Voters [Jonathan Turley]

…Over sixty percent of voters said that she was manifestly unqualified – that obviously includes many Republicans. Other polls have shown Palin was the most cited reason for voting against McCain by voters. While she clearly did bring out the hardcore faithful, she also clearly scared off the independents and moderates are that were essential for a win…

Let this all be a lesson to you. Even with one of the worst vice presidential picks, the most poorly run campaign in the history of the republic, and an economy and government near collapse due to republican incompetence – over 57,000,000 people (about 46% of the electorate) voted for the republican ticket. One in five people you pass on the street (out of a total population of 305,000,000) voted for the ticket.

We should have won by thirty points.

You all better start preparing for the mid-term elections now. There’s a lot of work to be done.

Public Policy Polling

The race for President in Missouri is so close we have to give the results of our final poll in decimal points. Barack Obama leads John McCain 49.4 to 48.6 in the state, an outcome that needless to say is within the poll’s margin of error…

…PPP surveyed 1,343 likely voters from October 31st to November 2nd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.7%.

Missouri Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters

Conducted November 2, 2008

By Rasmussen Reports for FOX News

2* If the Presidential Election were held today, would you vote for Republican John McCain,

Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr, Independent Ralph Nader or Green Party

Candidate Cynthia Ann McKinney?

McCain – 49%

Obama – 49%

Barr – 0%

Nader – 0%

McKinney – 0%

Not sure – 2%

…NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

24 Hours Till Votes Are Counted, Missouri Is Still Tied, Could Go Either Way: McCain 48%, Obama 48%, in SurveyUSA‘s final tracking poll of Missouri, released Election Eve. No change since an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago. Research, underwritten by KMOX radio in St. Louis and KCTV-TV in Kansas City…

…800 adults interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/02/08 yielded 754 registered voters and 674 likely voters….

…Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%…

MISSOURI

Obama – 48%

McCain – 47%

Barr – 1%

Nader – 2%

McKny – 0%

Not Sure – 3%

10/26/2008

…In Missouri, Obama is up by a single percentage point, 48% to 47%. That’s the strongest showing yet for McCain in polling conducted during October and comes just after his weakest showing of the year when he trailed by five a week ago. However, as we noted at the time, last week’s survey was conducted the day after Obama held two massive rallies in the state. Despite these ups and downs, Obama has held a very slight lead-from one to five points–in all four Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Missouri polls conducted during October.

Rasmussen released a survey of 700 likely voters taken in Missouri on October 15th (?) and released on October 17th. The margin of error is 4%.

McCain – 46%

Obama – 52%

Other – 0%

Not sure – 2%

This poll shows that Obama’s lead is expanding when compared to the Rasmussen October 12th and October 5th Missouri presidential polls, though the sample sizes and methodologies (that is, including third party candidates or not) appear to be different.

Fox News/Rasmussen released a survey of 1000 likely voters taken in Missouri on October 12th. The margin of error is 3%.

McCain – 47%

Obama – 50%

Ralph Nader – 1%

Bob Barr – 0%

Not sure – 2%

There’s no change (except for Bob Barr) from the October 5th poll.