Rasmussen conducted a poll of 500 likely voters in Missouri on June 2, 2010. The margin of error is 4.5%.
3* 2010 Missouri Senate Race
Roy Blunt (R) – 45%
Robin Carnahan (D) – 44%
Some other candidate – 4%
Not sure – 6%
Do you think “Some other candidate” might be Chuck Purgason?
11* In the long-term, will the recent Gulf Oil Spill have a devastating impact on the environment, a major impact, a modest impact, a minor impact, or will it have little lasting impact on the environment?
47% Devastating impact on the environment
35% Major impact….
12* Who should pay for the clean-up from the oil leak – the companies who were drilling for oil, the government or both?
81% Companies who were drilling for oil
1% Not sure….
….Remember, Rasmussen has two modes — the narrative setting mode, which he’s used to great effect this year to fuel the “Democrats are doomed” narrative, and the “get it right” mode he uses the closer we get to the actual election. Well, we’re not that close to November yet, but apparently he felt threatened by having such massive outliers vis a vis other pollsters. So he rushed new polling more in line with the composite polling trendlines.
It’s kind of hard to set narratives when you become a laughing stock in the political world.
Nate Silver also has some issues:
…While 2000 was generally a fairly rough year for pollsters, who had to deal with an unenthusiastic electorate, some third-party challengers, and some late-breaking developments like Bush’s DUI charge, Rasmussen was the worst of the lot, missing by an average of 5.7 points. They also called 7 states wrong.** Some of this was the result of bias, as they were 3.5 points too high on Bush’s margin in the states they surveyed, on average.
Although Rasmussen has certainly gotten a lot of things right, their high pollster rating was mostly based on their strong performance in 2004 and 2006. Their rating is likely to go down now that we’ve found their 2000 data, and are adding in the 2008 data, when their performance was mediocre.
So, we’ll take this interpretation of the senate race in Missouri with a grain of salt.