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On June 30th Rasmussen released the results of a poll of 500 “likely voters” in Missouri taken on June 28th. The margin of error is 4.5%:

3* 2010 Missouri Senate Race

Roy Blunt (R) – 48%

Robin Carnahan (D) – 43%

Some other candidate – 3%

Not sure – 6%

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight on Rasmussen:

….Right now, we are identifying about a 4.5-point Republican-leaning house effect in Rasmussen’s polls, relative to a robust average, weighted based on pollster quality….

….We are using the new version of the pollster ratings for this update, by the way, which still rates Rasmussen as a somewhat above-average pollster. The problem is not necessarily that Rasmussen is bad but rather that they’re so dominant; something like 40 percent of our state-level polls were put out by Rasmussen, and they are just about the only pollster at all in some states. A guiding principal of our house effects adjustment is that nobody should be advantaged (or disadvantaged) simply because they poll more often, so it effectively mitigates the impact of Rasmussen flooding the zone, as it would for any other pollster which did something similar. With that said, Rasmussen certainly could be right, so it’s useful to check sometimes on what what the overall Senate picture would look like through their lens….

There are some interesting results for other questions in the poll:

5* A proposal has been made to repeal the health care bill and stop it from going into effect. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose a proposal to repeal the health care bill?

48% Strongly favor

13% Somewhat favor

 7% Somewhat oppose

28% Strongly oppose

 4% Not sure

They should have asked their respondents about keeping government out of Medicare.

8* Suppose the new Arizona immigration law was being considered for your state. Would you favor or oppose passage of that law in your state?

56% Favor

29% Oppose

15% Not sure

I wonder what their opinion would be about law enforcement asking them for their papers?

11* Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party Movement?  

22% Yes

54% No

24% Not sure

24% are not sure? Maybe if they had used the term teabagger there might have been a little less confusion.

Gallup has a bit more on the teabagger/republican hybrid:

July 2, 2010

Tea Party Supporters Overlap Republican Base

Eight out of 10 Tea Party supporters are Republicans

….While Tea Party supporters are not universal in their backing of Republican candidates, they skew heavily in that direction. About 80% of Tea Party supporters say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their district, slightly lower than the projected 95% Republican vote among conservative Republicans.

This suggests that the potential impact of the Tea Party on Republican chances of winning in congressional and senatorial races this fall — even if supporters turn out in record numbers — may be slightly less than would be expected….

[emphasis added]

Ah, it’s just a bunch of republicans who are pissed off that they’re out of power.

It’d be really interesting to see those Rasmussen crosstabs for Missouri.