Public Policy Polling (PPP) conducted a survey (pdf) from August 13th through August 17th of 750 likely General Election voters in Missouri in which they explored voter preferences in the statewide down ticket November races (Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Treasurer, Attorney General). The results were released on August 20th. The margin of error is 3.6%.
We’ve written previously on the presidential head to head numbers and the governor’s race.
Lieutenant Governor:
Q3 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are Republican Peter Kinder and Democrat Sam Page. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
Kinder/Page
All
Kinder – 48%
Page – 37%
Undecided – 15%Men
Kinder – 52%
Page – 35%
Undecided – 13%Women
Kinder – 43%
Page – 39%
Undecided – 17%Kinder/Page by Party
Democrat
Kinder – 16%
Page – 70%
Undecided – 14%Republican
Kinder – 82%
Page – 11%
Undecided – 7%Other
Kinder – 43%
Page – 27%
Undecided – 30%
Sam Page needs to educate those Democratic and “Other” undecideds. That’s going to take a lot of money (and television). Kinder, as the incumbent, appears to have his republican base all sewn up. That is until they start thinking about what’s been going on for the last four years…
Secretary of State:
Hubbard who?
Q4 The candidates for Secretary of State are Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Mitch Hubbard. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
Carnahan/Hubbard
All
Carnahan – 49%
Hubbard – 39%
Undecided – 11%
Hubbard Who?
State Treasurer:
Q5 The candidates for State Treasurer are Republican Brad Lager and Democrat Clint Zweifel. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
Lager/Zweifel
All
Lager – 41%
Zweifel – 36%
Undecided – 23%
That’s a significant chunk of undecideds. This will come down to money. 37% of the “Others” (not republican, not Democrat) are undecided.
Attorney General:
Q6 The candidates for Attorney General are Democrat Chris Koster and Republican Mike Gibbons. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
Koster/Gibbons
All
Koster – 42%
Gibbons – 39%
Undecided – 19%Men
Koster – 41%
Gibbons – 45%
Undecided – 14%Women
Koster – 43%
Gibbons – 33%
Undecided – 24%Koster/Gibbons by Party
Democrat
Koster – 71%
Gibbons – 14%
Undecided – 15%Republican
Koster – 17%
Gibbons – 70%
Undecided – 13%Other
Koster – 36%
Gibbons – 30%
Undecided – 34%
The numbers for Koster among Democrats are not out of line with the other statewide Democratic candidates. Again, those “Other” undecideds will be an important target group. Television, television, television…
Page’s primary showing is probably another sign that some money needs to be spent. He has a pretty interesting story (coming from a small town, going to school at UMKC, becoming a doctor, etc).
Hubbard will probably get the token percentage for a Republican (39%ish and at least 7 counties) at worst. His 8 days report said that he has spent $4,917 so far with under $400 on hand. Also, Hubbard actually finished behind Carnahan in votes in their unopposed primaries despite Republicans having a lot more voters come out than Democrats.
I like Zweifel and all, but “Fiscal Competence We Can Count On” is probably not going into a slogan hall of fame.
I’m pretty sure a huge number of people don’t know who Clint or Lager are. So hopefully Clint has the money to get himself known and get his issues out there too.
You all write about these results like they have any basis in reality. It’s an automated poll with a margin of error far greater than stated.
Regardless, it’s too early for any horse race polls to mean much.
to look at to watch as the months go by. Lots of undecideds.
I had a nice phone conversation with Sam Page yesterday and I’m going to donate to him but I can’t do it until after Labor Day.
(Of course once again the call was to my WORK phone number and I had people in my office and … well, it’s just really annoying to get these calls at WORK. I liked Page but he didn’t even bother to ask me if it was a good time he just moved right into his spiel. sigh. I’d really like to know how to stop these calls. I was downright rude to the Jay Nixon guy who called me THREE DAYS IN A ROW. And Jay’s my favorite candidate this election. )