Missouri:

McCain – 50%

Obama – 48%

…The poll indicates another state Bush carried in 2004, Missouri, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2-point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey’s sampling error of 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states CNN polled and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader’s 4 percent showing could have an impact…

…The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll was conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with…825 likely voter in Missouri…questioned by telephone.

MISSOURI

Obama – 48%

McCain – 47%

Barr – 1%

Nader – 2%

McKny – 0%

Not Sure – 3%

10/26/2008

…In Missouri, Obama is up by a single percentage point, 48% to 47%. That’s the strongest showing yet for McCain in polling conducted during October and comes just after his weakest showing of the year when he trailed by five a week ago. However, as we noted at the time, last week’s survey was conducted the day after Obama held two massive rallies in the state. Despite these ups and downs, Obama has held a very slight lead-from one to five points–in all four Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Missouri polls conducted during October.

SurveyUSA released a 672 sample poll of “Likely voters” on October 27th taken in Missouri October 25th through the 26th. The poll runs a head to head match up between McCain and Obama. The margin of error is 3.9%.

The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City and KMOX in St. Louis.

If the election for President were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

All

McCain – 48%

Obama – 48%

Other – 3%

Undecided – 1%

The actual count (frequencies) puts this into some perspective:

If the election for President were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

All [frequency]

McCain – 320

Obama – 325

Other – 17

Undecided – 10

SurveyUSA released a 705 sample poll of “likely voters” in Missouri on September 25th which was in the field from September 23rd through the 24th. The poll runs head to head match ups in the governor race between Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) and Kenny Hulshof (r) (and the two leading other minor party candidates on the ballot). The margin of error is 3.8%.

The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City.

Missouri voters will also elect a Governor. If the election for Governor were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) Republican Kenny Hulshof? Democrat Jay Nixon? Libertarian Andrew Finkenstadt? Or Constitution Party candidate Gregory Thompson?

All

Kenny Hulshof (R) – 37%

Jay Nixon (D)- 55%

Andrew Finkenstadt (L) – 2%

Gregory Thompson (CP) – 2%

Undecided – 5%

Some of the crosstabs:

Party Affiliation

Democrats [38% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof (R) – 11%

Jay Nixon (D) – 83%

Andrew Finkenstadt (L) – 1%

Gregory Thompson (CP) – 2%

Undecided – 3%

republicans [32% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof (R) – 72%

Jay Nixon (D) – 23%

Andrew Finkenstadt (L) – 1%

Gregory Thompson (CP) – 2%

Undecided – 2%

Independents [23% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof (R) – 34%

Jay Nixon (D) – 49%

Andrew Finkenstadt (L) – 6%

Gregory Thompson (CP) – 2%

Undecided – 9%

Gender

Male [50% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof (R) – 39%

Jay Nixon (D) – 53%

Andrew Finkenstadt (L) – 4%

Gregory Thompson (CP) – 2%

Undecided – 3%

Female [50% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof (R) – 35%

Jay Nixon (D) – 56%

Andrew Finkenstadt (L) – 1%

Gregory Thompson (CP) – 2%

Undecided – 7%

Not much of a gender gap. Then again, when you’re down by 18 points forty or so days out all the “sub-gaps” get subsumed by stark reality.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) conducted a survey (pdf) from August 13th through August 17th of 750 likely General Election voters in Missouri in which they explored voter preferences in the statewide down ticket November races (Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Treasurer, Attorney General). The results were released on August 20th. The margin of error is 3.6%.

We’ve written previously on the presidential head to head numbers and the governor’s race.

Lieutenant Governor:

Q3 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are Republican Peter Kinder and Democrat Sam Page. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Kinder/Page

All

Kinder – 48%

Page – 37%

Undecided – 15%

Men

Kinder – 52%

Page – 35%

Undecided – 13%

Women

Kinder – 43%

Page – 39%

Undecided – 17%

Kinder/Page by Party

Democrat

Kinder – 16%

Page – 70%

Undecided – 14%

Republican

Kinder – 82%

Page – 11%

Undecided – 7%

Other

Kinder – 43%

Page – 27%

Undecided – 30%

Sam Page needs to educate those Democratic and “Other” undecideds. That’s going to take a lot of money (and television). Kinder, as the incumbent, appears to have his republican base all sewn up. That is until they start thinking about what’s been going on for the last four years…

Secretary of State:

Hubbard who?

Q4 The candidates for Secretary of State are Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Mitch Hubbard. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Carnahan/Hubbard

All

Carnahan – 49%

Hubbard – 39%

Undecided – 11%

Hubbard Who?

State Treasurer:

Q5 The candidates for State Treasurer are Republican Brad Lager and Democrat Clint Zweifel. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Lager/Zweifel

All

Lager – 41%

Zweifel – 36%

Undecided – 23%

That’s a significant chunk of undecideds. This will come down to money. 37% of the “Others” (not republican, not Democrat) are undecided.

Attorney General:

Q6 The candidates for Attorney General are Democrat Chris Koster and Republican Mike Gibbons. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Koster/Gibbons

All

Koster – 42%

Gibbons – 39%

Undecided – 19%

Men

Koster – 41%

Gibbons – 45%

Undecided – 14%

Women

Koster – 43%

Gibbons – 33%

Undecided – 24%

Koster/Gibbons by Party

Democrat

Koster – 71%

Gibbons – 14%

Undecided – 15%

Republican

Koster – 17%

Gibbons – 70%

Undecided – 13%

Other

Koster – 36%

Gibbons – 30%

Undecided – 34%

The numbers for Koster among Democrats are not out of line with the other statewide Democratic candidates. Again, those “Other” undecideds will be an important target group. Television, television, television…  

Public Policy Polling (PPP) conducted a survey (pdf) from August 13th through August 17th of 750 likely General Election voters in Missouri. The results were released on August 20th. The margin of error is 3.6%.

Q1 The candidates for President are Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

McCain/Obama

All

McCain – 50%

Obama – 40%

Undecided – 9%

Men

McCain – 53%

Obama – 39%

Undecided – 8%

Women

McCain – 47%

Obama – 42%

Undecided – 11%

The sample appears a bit heavy on republicans – they constitute 38% of the interviews with Democrats  at 37% and “Other” at 24%.

McCain/Obama by Party

Democrat

McCain – 15%

Obama – 78%

Undecided – 8%

Republican

McCain – 87%

Obama – 9%

Undecided – 4%

Other

McCain – 46%

Obama – 33%

Undecided – 21%

Whoa. That’s a huge percentage of undecideds among the “others”.

PPP also ran various statewide races head to head:

Q2 The candidates for Governor are Republican Kenny Hulshof and Democrat Jay Nixon. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Hulshof/Nixon

All

Hulshof – 42%

Nixon – 48%

Undecided – 11%

Men

Hulshof – 46%

Nixon – 45%

Undecided – 9%

Women

Hulshof – 37%

Nixon – 51%

Undecided – 12%

Hulshof/Nixon by Party

Democrat

Hulshof – 11%

Nixon – 80%

Undecided – 9%

Republican

Hulshof – 76%

Nixon – 18%

Undecided – 6%

Other

Hulshof – 34%

Nixon – 45%

Undecided – 21%

Again, that’s a chunk of undecideds in the “others”.

It’s still “the economy, stupid” among voters:

Q10 I am going to name 7 issues. Which of these is most important to you?

War in Iraq – 15%

Education – 7%

Economy and Jobs – 47%

Taxes – 4%

Moral and Family Values – 13%

Health Care – 8%

Immigration – 5%

Other – 1%

[emphasis added]

The other statewide races are also interesting. It would appear that television is key for those down ticket races.

Rasmussen conducted a poll of 500 “likely voters” in Missouri on July 7th. “This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.” The margin of error is 4.5%.

2* 2008 Presidential General Election Match-Ups

McCain 47%

Obama 42%

Other 6%

Not sure 5%

Public Policy Polling conducted a 728 sample poll of “likely voters” from July 2nd through July 5th. The margin of error is 3.5%.

All

John McCain 47%

Barack Obama 44%

republicans

McCain 85%

Obama 10%

Democrats

McCain 15%

Obama 77%

Independents

McCain 46%

Obama 38%

Rasmussen released a 500 sample poll of likely voters in Missouri dated June 3, 2008:

2008 Presidential General Election Match-Ups

McCain 42%

Obama 43%

Other 9%

Not sure 6%

The poll has a margin of error of 4.5%.

There are some other interesting things in those top line numbers:

How do you rate the way that George W. Bush is performing his role as President? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?

9% Excellent

17% Good

17% Fair

56% Poor

1% Not sure

Worst. President. Ever.

The kool-aid drinkers are down to 26%. That’s probably the best we can expect. Just think about it – one in four people you pass on the street thinks dubya is just doin’ peachy.

Even if the next president is a mediocrity that individual will probably be added to the pantheon on Mount Rushmore – he’ll be considered one of the greats in direct comparison to dubya’s disastrous eight years. Unless of course we get a third dubya term with McSame…

On November 20th SurveyUSA released a 600 sample poll taken in Missouri from November 9th through the 11th which shows the approval ratings for Senator Claire McCaskill (D) and Senator Kit Bond (r). The margin of error is 4.1%.

The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City.

Kit Bond is not doing so well.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Claire McCaskill is doing as United States Senator?

All

48% – approve

46% – disapprove

7% – not sure

Democrats [40% of sample]

71% – approve

24% – disapprove

5% – not sure

republicans [28% of sample]

29% – approve

69% – disapprove

2% – not sure

Independents [26% of sample]

35% – approve

55% – disapprove

9% – not sure

Interesting. Not much change from October’s numbers for republicans and Democrats, but those self identified Independents are not happy campers.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kit Bond is doing as United States Senator?

All

43% – approve

45% – disapprove

12% – not sure

Democrats [40% of sample]

29% – approve

58% – disapprove

13% – not sure

republicans [28% of sample]

59% – approve

32% – disapprove

9% – not sure

Independents [26% of sample]

48% – approve

41% – disapprove

11% – not sure

Lions and tigers and bears (plus a few mules), oh my! There’s serious erosion in republican and Democratic numbers for the podium pounder. Maybe this is an indication that even a long history of applying liberal quantities of pork won’t be able to save the damaged republican brand. Curiously, the Independent numbers haven’t changed much.  

On November 13th SurveyUSA released a 600 sample poll taken in Missouri from November 9th through the 11th which shows that dubya has a similar poor approval rating from the previous one released last month. The margin of error is 4%.

The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

All
35% – approve
63% – disapprove
2% – not sure

Democrats [40% of sample]
10% – approve
89% – disapprove
1% – not sure

republicans [28% of sample]
72% – approve
27% – disapprove
2% – not sure

Independents [26% of sample]
37% – approve
59% – disapprove
3% – not sure

His approval rating has improved (not much) among Independents – still it’s at -22%. His approval remains unchanged among Democrats and Republicans. Self identified Democrats make up 40% of the sample.

A majority (53% to 46%) of anti-choice folks [48% of the sample] give him approval. A larger majority of pro-choice folks (78% to 20%) disapprove [and they’re 49% of the sample].