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SurveyUSA released a 705 sample poll of “likely voters” in Missouri on September 25th which was in the field from September 23rd through the 24th. The poll runs head to head match ups in the governor race between Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) and Kenny Hulshof (r) (and the two leading other minor party candidates on the ballot). The margin of error is 3.8%.
The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City.
Missouri voters will also elect a Governor. If the election for Governor were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) Republican Kenny Hulshof? Democrat Jay Nixon? Libertarian Andrew Finkenstadt? Or Constitution Party candidate Gregory Thompson?
All
Kenny Hulshof (R) – 37%
Jay Nixon (D)- 55%
Andrew Finkenstadt (L) – 2%
Gregory Thompson (CP) – 2%
Undecided – 5%
Some of the crosstabs:
Party Affiliation
Democrats [38% of sample]
Kenny Hulshof (R) – 11%
Jay Nixon (D) – 83%
Andrew Finkenstadt (L) – 1%
Gregory Thompson (CP) – 2%
Undecided – 3%republicans [32% of sample]
Kenny Hulshof (R) – 72%
Jay Nixon (D) – 23%
Andrew Finkenstadt (L) – 1%
Gregory Thompson (CP) – 2%
Undecided – 2%Independents [23% of sample]
Kenny Hulshof (R) – 34%
Jay Nixon (D) – 49%
Andrew Finkenstadt (L) – 6%
Gregory Thompson (CP) – 2%
Undecided – 9%
Gender
Male [50% of sample]
Kenny Hulshof (R) – 39%
Jay Nixon (D) – 53%
Andrew Finkenstadt (L) – 4%
Gregory Thompson (CP) – 2%
Undecided – 3%Female [50% of sample]
Kenny Hulshof (R) – 35%
Jay Nixon (D) – 56%
Andrew Finkenstadt (L) – 1%
Gregory Thompson (CP) – 2%
Undecided – 7%
Not much of a gender gap. Then again, when you’re down by 18 points forty or so days out all the “sub-gaps” get subsumed by stark reality.
I’ll adapt to mentioning “Nixon up 17” (the internals page says 54/37) instead of “Nixon up 15” (Research 2000 had a 51/42 Nixon poll, and my prediction will stand at 56/41 for now)
At this rate, the Nixon people will have a very interesting October, getting as many Democratic ‘surfers’ in position to ride the Nixon wave to shore. After all, Jay would have a much better time getting things done with more Democrats in House and Senate.
So.. while I still can’t define how SurveyUSA breaks down their regions. Here is a region split
North MO: 48/43 Hulshof
Kansas City: 61/27 Nixon
Southwest MO: 50/41 Nixon
St. Louis: 57/36 Nixon
Southeast MO: 56/37 Nixon
Repubs just couldn’t resist picking the Washington D.C. insider, even though he had no chance of winning.
by being snuggled in between Nixon and Carnahan on the ballot. I wish Zweifel were squeezed in there too. Anybody know who follows Carnahan? Koster or Zweifel?