SurveyUSA released a 672 sample poll of “Likely voters” on October 27th taken in Missouri October 25th through the 26th. The poll runs a head to head match up between McCain and Obama. The margin of error is 3.9%.
The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City and KMOX in St. Louis.
If the election for President were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
All
McCain – 48%
Obama – 48%
Other – 3%
Undecided – 1%
The actual count (frequencies) puts this into some perspective:
If the election for President were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
All [frequency]
McCain – 320
Obama – 325
Other – 17
Undecided – 10
Dems (36%): 88/10 Obama
Reps (33%): 90/8 McCain
Inds (28%): 47/45 McCain
18-34 (25%): 48/47 McCain
35-49 (32%): 49/48 Obama
50-64 (24%): 53/43 Obama
65+ (19%): 52/44 McCain
Men (48%): 52/43 McCain
Women (52%): 53/43 Obama
NorthMO (16%): 61/35 McCain
Kansas City (20%): 56/41 Obama
SW MO (18%): 59/39 McCain
STL (37%): 55/39 Obama
SE MO (9%): 50/46 McCain
Compared to last time:
Men go from +5 Obama to +9 McCain, Women go from +11 Obama to +10 Obama, 18-34s go from +24 Obama to +1 McCain, 35-49s go from +6 to +1 Obama, 50-64s stay at +10 Obama, 65+ goes from +9 to +8 McCain.
And we see big swings in regions: from +11O to +26O in North MO, +31O to +15O in KC, +16M to +20M in SW MO, +22O to +16O in STL, +16M to +4M in SE MO.
Also, they took this poll over the weekend, with homecoming at MU, and football on Sunday. In other words: This is not completely reliable, especially when you consider the strong possibility that the 18-34 sample got skewed due to Obama voters taking part in homecoming