Toast.

Internal Poll Shows McCaskill Up 14 on Akin

By Julie Sobel

October 16, 2012 | 5:58 p.m.

Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., leads GOP Rep. Todd Akin by 14 points in a new internal poll conducted for her campaign.

The poll, conducted by Kiley and Company, shows McCaskill with 52 percent support to Akin’s 38 percent. It’s an increase from her lead in their previous poll, conducted in late September, which showed the senator leading her embattled opponent 50 percent to 41 percent….

….The poll, conducted Oct. 14-15, surveyed 601 likely voters, for a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points.

Well, well, well….

A two page polling memo for Claire McCaskill’s (D) campaign is circulating. We got a copy (no, not from that national blog). The news is good for Claire McCaskill, not so good for Todd Akin (r).

The poll utilized a 600 sample of likely Missouri voters. Interviews were completed on September 30th. The margin of error is 3.5%.

The head to head numbers:

Claire McCaskill – 50%

Todd Akin – 41%

Other – 2%

Not sure – 7%

Gee, there’s a serious gender gap:

….For instance, women give her a 17-point margin when it comes to caring about people like them – and by a 21-point margin, they say that Akin is too extreme….

You don’t say?

Also, Democrats are supporting Claire 91% to 5%. On the other hand, republicans are only supporting Akin 19% to 15%. Independents support Claire McCaskill 51% to 28%.

Kinda restores your faith in Missouri voters, don’t it? If it holds.

Mason-Dixon conducted a poll August 22nd through the 23rd of 625 registered voters (apparently, not using a “likely voter” screen) in Missouri for the Post-Dispatch and KMOV TV which was released in a Post-Dispatch story late last night. The margin of error is 4%.

QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for Missouri’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for Claire McCaskill, the Democrat, or Todd Akin, the Republican?

McCASKILL – 50%

AKIN- 41%

SEX

Men

McCASKILL – 44%

AKIN – 46%

Women

McCASKILL – 55%

AKIN – 37%

PARTY

Independent

McCASKILL – 52%

AKIN – 35%

There goes the gender gap. Go figure.

Yep, self identified “Independents” don’t tend to identify strongly with the delusional lunatic fringe.

The sample is reportedly “registered voters” rather than “likely voters”. If they don’t show up on Election Day these numbers and their opinions won’t matter.

Previously:

Rasmussen Poll – 8/22/2012: Claire McCaskill (D) up by ten over Todd Akin (r) (August 23, 2012)

Public Policy Polling: Like a snapshot of a moving amusement park ride (August 22, 2012)

Rasmussen released a poll today of five hundred likely Missouri voters interviewed on August 22nd. The margin of error is 4.5%.

Missouri Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted August 22, 2012

By Rasmussen Reports

*Please note that we split the survey to rotate the order of the candidates, so while half will hear the Republican first, the other half hears the Democrat mentioned first.

1* If the 2012 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Republican Todd Akin or Democrat Claire McCaskill?

Todd Akin – 38%

Claire McCaskill – 48%

Some Other Candidate – 9%

Not Sure – 5%

[….]

4* Should Akin withdraw from the campaign and have the Republicans select another candidate to run against Senator Claire McCaskill?

Yes – 41%

No – 42%

Not sure – 17%

[….]

7* Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of Medicare?

Very favorable – 21%

Somewhat favorable – 39%

Somewhat unfavorable – 25%

Very unfavorable – 10%

Not sure – 5%

[….]

The first and fourth questions might explain this.

Then again, this is a is Rasmussen poll. That can be no comfort to republicans.

Yesterday Survey USA released the results of a poll of 585 likely voters in Missouri taken from August 9th through August 12th. The poll has a margin of error of 4.1%.

If the election for President were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

All

Mitt Romney (R) – 45%

Barack Obama (D) – 44%

Other – 6%

Undecided – 5%

Male (46%)

Mitt Romney (R) – 45%

Barack Obama (D) – 45%

Other – 5%

Undecided – 5%

Female (54%)

Mitt Romney (R) – 46%

Barack Obama (D) – 43%

Other – 6%

Undecided – 6%

Ideology

Conservative (40%)

Mitt Romney (R) – 78%

Barack Obama (D) – 14%

Other – 5%

Undecided – 3%

Moderate (38%)

Mitt Romney (R) – 29%

Barack Obama (D) – 55%

Other – 6%

Undecided – 9%

Liberal (19%)

Mitt Romney (R) – 10%

Barack Obama (D) – 81%

Other – 6%

Undecided – 3%

Essentially tied. And there’s no gender gap. That bears watching – especially if there’s increased awareness of the republican War on Women. Those “Moderate” numbers are very interesting.

The numbers for Governor:

Missouri will also elect a Governor. If the election for Governor were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Dave Spence? Democrat Jay Nixon? Or Libertarian Jim Higgins?

All

Dave Spence (R) – 37%

Jay Nixon (D) – 51%

Jim Higgins (L) – 5%

Undecided – 6%

Male (46%)

Dave Spence (R) – 35%

Jay Nixon (D) – 52%

Jim Higgins (L) – 7%

Undecided – 6%

Female (54%)

Dave Spence (R) – 39%

Jay Nixon (D) – 51%

Jim Higgins (L) – 4%

Undecided – 6%

Ideology

Conservative (40%)

Dave Spence (R) – 66%

Jay Nixon (D) – 26%

Jim Higgins (L) – 4%

Undecided – 4%

Moderate (38%)

Dave Spence (R) – 23%

Jay Nixon (D) – 65%

Jim Higgins (L) – 5%

Undecided – 7%

Liberal (19%)

Dave Spence (R) – 6%

Jay Nixon (D) – 81%

Jim Higgins (L) – 5%

Undecided – 8%

Well, there really aren’t any surprises.

For U.S. Senate:

Missouri will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for US Senate were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Todd Akin? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Or Libertarian Jonathan Dine?

All

Todd Akin (R) – 51%

Claire McCaskill (D) – 40%

Jonathan Dine (L) – 4%

Undecided – 5%

Male (46%)

Todd Akin (R) – 49%

Claire McCaskill (D) – 40%

Jonathan Dine (L) – 7%

Undecided – 4%

Female (54%)

Todd Akin (R) – 53%

Claire McCaskill (D) – 39%

Jonathan Dine (L) – 3%

Undecided – 9%

Ideology

Conservative (40%)

Todd Akin (R) – 83%

Claire McCaskill (D) – 13%

Jonathan Dine (L) – 2%

Undecided – 2%

Moderate (38%)

Todd Akin (R) – 37%

Claire McCaskill (D) – 50%

Jonathan Dine (L) – 7%

Undecided – 6%

Liberal (19%)

Todd Akin (R) – 14%

Claire McCaskill (D) – 77%

Jonathan Dine (L) – 3%

Undecided – 7%

Uh, very interesting, a gender gap, but not what you’d expect. Fourteen percent of self identified Liberals will vote for Akin? Seriously?

This poll may be an outlier. We won’t know until we see some trends in subsequent polls by the same outlet.

If this poll has a republican/conservative bias and Barack Obama (D) is essentially tied with Mitt Romney (r) the Obama/Biden campaign needs to seriously consider ramping up their field operation in Missouri.

In 2004:

Official Election Returns

State of Missouri Primary Election

Tuesday, August 03, 2004

As announced by the Board of State Canvassers

on Friday, September 03, 2004

Constitutional Amendment 2  

Marriage Definition

Yes 1,055,771 70.6%

No 439,529 29.4%

Total Votes   1,495,300

Remember, it was a primary and turnout was nowhere near that of a general election. It did result in this:

Missouri Constitution

Article I

BILL OF RIGHTS

Section 33

Marriage, validity and recognition.

Section 33. That to be valid and recognized in this state, a marriage shall exist only between a man and a woman.

(Adopted August 3, 2004)

Public Policy Polling (PPP) released additional results [pdf] of a survey of 602 Missouri voters interviewed from May 24th to May 27th. The margin of error for the poll is 4.0%.

Q2 Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal 36%

Illegal 52%

Not sure 12%

Q3 Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry 31%

Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry 32%

There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship 33%

Not sure 4%

Civil unions or same sex marriage are at 63% in the poll.

The next question should have been: “Should the state should dictate any religious denomination’s recognition of marriage between consenting adults?” I bet the results would have been really interesting.

Civil union or marriage, what would be the difference, a choice of words?

Eight years. Think of the possibility of continuing change over the next few years.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) released additional results of a survey of 602 Missouri voters interviewed from May 24th to May 27th. The margin of error for the poll is 4.0%.

The presidential race is close. Anyone think that Jasper County will make the difference?

Missouri a toss up for President

Voters in Missouri are not real happy with their choices for President. They don’t like Barack Obama. But they don’t, as evidenced by the Republican primary results in the state, like Mitt Romney either. That has the state looking closely contested again for this fall just as it was in 2008….

The numbers [pdf]:

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama 45%

Mitt Romney 44%

Undecided 11%

And then there’s this:

….Blunt is one of the most unpopular Senators in the country with only 32% of voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove. Missouri is the only state in our polling where both Senators have a net approval of -10 or worse….

That must be some teabagger buyer’s remorse.

Previously: PPP: Claire McCaskill, not particularly liked (February 1, 2012)

But, then, neither are the republican candidates – when people even know who they are…

Public Policy Polling [pdf] conducted a surveyed of 602 Missouri voters between May 24th and 27th. The margin of error 4.0%:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?

Approve 40%

Disapprove 50%

Not sure 10%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Todd Akin?

Favorable 21%

Unfavorable 21%

Not sure 57%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Brunner?

Favorable 20%

Unfavorable 23%

Not sure 58%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Steelman?

Favorable 30%

Unfavorable 26%

Not sure 45%

Karl Rove’s minions spent all that money and no one knows who their candidate is.

There’s an interesting crosstab:

McCaskill Approval

Approve 40%

Disapprove 50%

Not sure 10%

Democrat

Approve 74%

Disapprove 13%

Not sure 12%

Republican

Approve 9%

Disapprove 83%

Not sure 9%

Independent/Other

Approve 35%

Disapprove 57%

Not sure 7%

[emphasis added]

Interesting. One quarter of self described Democrats are not in the approval column.

Toss Up in Missouri

….There’s no more clarity for the general election than there is for the primary. Claire McCaskill is basically tied with all three of her competitors, leading Brunner 46-44, dead even with Steelman at 44, and down 45-44 to Akin. Little has changed since our last poll when all three match ups came down at 43-43….

So much for being in the center.

The Mellman Group conducted a survey [pdf] of 600 likely voters in Missouri on the 2012 U.S. Senate race for Majority PAC from May 8-10, 2012. The margin of error is 4.0%. The poll memo was released yesterday:

McCaskill Continues To Lead The Missouri Senate Race Against All Comers

[….]

Despite being subjected to over $5 million dollars in negative attack ads from her Republican opponents, third party groups and Super PACs, our recent survey shows Senator Claire McCaskill leading all three of her potential Republican opponents in her bid for reelection. Indeed, her margin over the two opponents we examined in our last poll has actually increased since March 9th. Methodological failings render the results of other recent polls misleading.

[….]

Senator McCaskill has weathered a barrage of negative attacks and maintains a clear lead against all three of her potential GOP

opponents. McCaskill leads Sarah Steelman by 9 points (45%-36%) John Brunner by 8 points (46%-38%), and Todd Akin by 5 points (44%-39%) with 19%, 16% and 17% undecided, respectively.

Indeed, strong support for McCaskill nearly outpaces total support for her Republican rivals, with 36% supporting her strongly against Steelman, 35% supporting her strongly against Brunner, and 36% supporting her strongly against Akin. By contrast, barely a fifth of voters support Steelman (18%), Brunner (20%), or Akin (19%) strongly.

[….]

The poll memo includes a criticism of a sampling technique utilized in Missouri by other pollsters.

The conclusion:

…In short, thanks to her overall lead, more intense support, and edge among independents and moderates, Senator McCaskill is poised to mount a winning reelection bid regardless of her eventual opponent.

Well, look at this:

Steelman, Perry lead MO GOP races, Kinder vulnerable [pdf]

…In the same time frame, Sarah Steelman has jumped into a lead over Todd Akin for the right to face vulnerable Sen. Claire McCaskill. She leads him 40-29, with John Brunner at 6%, and 26% undecided. Akin has not picked up any supporters in the interim; he led Steelman 29-28 four months ago, with Brunner also still at 6% and Ed Martin, who has since dropped out, at 9%. The difference is that Steelman has reversed Akin’s leads with those who say they are somewhat conservative (36% of the electorate) and moderate (15%). Akin led with those groups by respective eight- and three-point margins in the previous poll, but Steelman now leads by whopping 21- and 33-point spreads, while also leading by one with the 46% plurality of voters furthest to the right….

….PPP surveyed 400 usual Missouri Republican primary voters from September 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates….

….Q12 If the Republican candidates for Senate were

Todd Akin, John Brunner, and Sarah Steelman,

who would you vote for?

Todd Akin ……………………………………………….. 29%

John Brunner ………………………………………….. 6%

Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 40%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

And the word in the Twitterverse from Sarah Steelman’s (r) campaign?:

@SteelmanCamp Sarah Steelman 2012

Sarah Steelman’s leading the primary race for Senate with 40% to 29% for Todd Akin and 6% for John Brunner. Akin… fb.me/1dzgjJp6j 20 hours ago

Don’t you just love republican primaries?