Before we dive into Part 4, consider this Part 3 and a half:

Bill Lant (R-Joplin) comments on redistricting and pretty much says he will win in the 159th District instead of facing Bill Reiboldt in the 160th. He also states that “The worst thing about the change is they changed the darned numbers”. First world problems. I’m also gonna assume the claim that nearly a half of current incumbents were “drawn out of their districts” is a case of undefined definitions.

But onto Part 4.

Missouri has 114 counties (and St. Louis City) and 163 House districts. The AAC map left 55 counties entirely in one district, splitting 59 counties at least once. 54 Counties (and St. Louis City) make up the majority of at least one district. 90 Districts are entirely in one county and 63 cross county lines.

So let’s take this opportunity to learn more about the 63 seats crossing county lines. Especially the ones that’ll be open in 2012 or which no county has a majority.

The multi-county seats where no county has a majority or the seat is open include…

HD2 is made up of Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, and Harrison Counties. DeKalb County has the most people with 12892 (34.8% of residents). Harrison is 2nd with 24%, Daviess has 23% and Gentry has 18%. Currently, Casey Guernsey and Glen Klippenstein are drawn together in the 2nd. Klippenstein said “So does an old oak tree get in the way of an up-and-coming sapling? That’s the decision basically I’m faced with” before noting he hadn’t made a decision on the matter. Although that line along with his mention of the costs of an election leads one to suspect he will step aside for Guernsey.

HD4 is made up Adair, Clark, Knox, Lewis, Schuyler, and Scotland Counties. Lewis County is the largest county in the district with 10211 people (28.9%). The rest: Clark 20.2%, Scotland 13.7%, Adair 12.9%, Schuyler 12.55%, and Knox 11.7%. Craig Redmon represents most of this area in the current HD1.

HD6 is made up of Linn, Macon, and Randolph Counties. Randolph County is the largest county with 18590 (50.35%) residents. Macon has 42.16% of residents and Linn had 7.49% of residents. District 22 incumbent Randy Asbury is running in this district (I wrote the HD6 entry before I found this out). The district is 56/44 Republican on the 2002/2010 average and 54/46 Republican on the 2008 average.

HD7 is made up Grundy, Linn, and Livingston Counties. Livingston County is the largest county with 15195 people (42.9%). Grundy has 28.9% of the district residents and Linn has 28.2% of district residents. The district’s incumbent in 2012 will be Mike Lair (R-Chillicothe). Although the only part of the district Lair is currently representing is in Livingston County.

HD8 is an open seat made up of Caldwell, Clay, Clinton, and Ray Counties. Clinton County has 20743 residents (56% of the district total). Caldwell has 25.6%, Ray has 9.2%, and Clay has 8.8%. The district is 55/45 Republican on the 2002/2010 average and 52.5/47.5 Republican on the 2008 average.

HD12 is an open seat made up of Clay and Platte Counties, going from Platte City to Kearney. 28411 (74.55%) of voters are from Clay County with the remaining 25.45% from Platte. This seat is technically open due to term limits (Ryan Silvey’s House is in the district, but most of the district is currently in the 30th (represented by Nick Marshall) or 35th districts (represented by TJ Berry). The District is 56/44 Republican (2002/2010 average) and 55/45 Republican (2008 average).

HD33 is an open seat made up of Cass, Jackson, and Lafayette counties. This district goes from south of Grain Valley and Oak Grove, down to Pleasant Hill and Harrisonville. 22610 (63.5%) are residents of Cass County and 36.2% are residents of Jackson County. Lafayette County brings 105 people (0.3%) to the district. No word on if any candidate will be bored enough to try meeting every Lafayette County voter in the district. The district is 56/44 Republican (2002/2010) and 53/47 Republican (2008).

HD39 is an open seat made up of Carroll, Chariton, and Ray counties. The majority of district residents live in Ray County (20108 people, 57%). The rest live in Carroll County (26%) or Chariton County (17%). The district is 52/48 Republican (2002/2010) and 50.4/49.6 Democratic (2008). Making it a must-watch open seat race at this moment.

HD44 is an open seat made up of Boone and Randolph Counties. 97.77% of district residents live in Northeastern Boone County with the rest being the 801 residents around Clark, Missouri in Randolph County. Former State Senator and State Representative Ken Jacob is looking at a run in the 44th. The district is 51/49 Republican (2002/2010) and 53/47 Democratic (2008).

HD47 is an open seat made up of Boone, Cooper, Howard, and Randolph Counties. The most populous county in the district is Boone County (28154 people, 79.55%). Randolph County brings 14% of the district population. Howard has 4.7% and Cooper has 1.6%. Former Boone County Presiding Commissioner Don Stamper and Former State Rep. Nancy Copenhaver are considering running here. The last two links are the same, the bigger story is the possibility of Chris Kelly running in HD45 if Mary Still runs for the Senate v. Kurt Schaefer. If Still doesn’t run, then Kelly may run in this district instead. So essentially a Boone County Shuffle is in progress right now. The 47th is 50.2/49.8 Republican (2002/2010) and 54/46 Democratic (2008).

HD48 is made up of Chariton, Cooper, Howard, Pettis, Randolph, and Saline Counties. Cooper County brings 43.6% (15448) of the district residents. The rest: Howard 24%, Saline 14%, Pettis 10%, Chariton 5% and Randolph 3%. The tiny Randolph section included Randy Asbury’s house, hence why he went to HD6 instead. So it should be a fun little battle to see if someone from Boonville returns to the Missouri House for the first time in awhile. The district is 50.2/49.8 Democratic (2002/2010) and 54/46 Republican (2008).

HD51 or HD54 is an open seat either made of Johnson/Pettis/Saline (HD51) or Johnson/Pettis (HD54) counties. One of these districts will get Denny Hoskins and the other will be open. I didn’t get this far in life by assuming things. But I would place my nonexistent money on Hoskins running in the 54th. The 51st’s largest county is Saline County (18449 people, 52%), with 37% in Johnson and 11% in Pettis. The 54th’s largest county is Johnson (31223 people, 87%). The 51st is 58.5/41.5 Democratic (2002/2010) and 56/44 Democratic (2008). The 54th is 53/47 Republican (2002/2010) and 50.2/49.8 Democratic (2008).

HD53 is an open seat made up of Jackson, Johnson, and Lafayette Counties. The largest County is Lafayette (33272, 93%) while just under 3.5% are in Jackson and Johnson. The seat is 52/48 Democratic (2002/2010) and 53/47 Democratic (2008) and should be hotly contested.

HD58 is an open seat made up of Miller, Moniteau, and Morgan Counties. Morgan has the most residents (20565, 58%) with 25% in Moniteau and 17% in Miller. The rest is 61/39 Republican (2002/2010) and 59/41 Republican (2008)

HD62 is an open seat made up of Cole, Crawford, Gasconade, Maries, Miller, Osage, and Phelps Counties. Maries County has the most residents (9176, 25.6). The rest: Gasconade 25%, Osage 24%, Phelps 13%, Cole 5%, Miller 5%, Crawford 2%. A long long time ago in 1994, part of this district elected a Democrat (Joe Clay Crum of Vienna, MO) to an open seat (before replacing him in 1996 with a Republic
an). That was awhile ago. The district is 61/39 Republican (2002/2010) and 59/41 Republican (2008). If we don’t get at least a quality primary out of this district, can we get a refund?

HD63 is an open seat made up of St. Charles and Warren Counties. 76.8% of residents (29298) live in St. Charles with the rest in Warren. The district is 59/41 Republican (2002/2010) and 53/47 Republican (2008). A Wentzville to Wright City district experimented with swinging towards Democrats at least once.

HD64 is an open seat made up of Lincoln and St. Charles Counties. 63% of residents (23893) live in St. Charles with the other 37% in Lincoln. The district is 54/46 Republican (2002/2010) and 51/49 Republican (2008)

HD70 is an open seat made up of St. Charles and St. Louis Counties. 80% (28746) are in St. Louis. The district is 50.3/49.7 Republican (2002/2010) and 55/45 Democratic (2008)

HD83 is an open seat made up of St. Louis City and St. Louis County. 70% (25804) are in STL County with the other 30% in the City. The district is around Brentwood/Maplewood in STL County. It’s a 65/35 Democratic (2002/2010) and 70/30 Democratic (2008) District.

HD93 is an open seat made up of St. Louis City and St. Louis County. 81% (29800) are in STL County with the other 19% in STL City. The district is located around Lemay and is 62/38 (2002/2010) and 65/35 Democratic.

HD116 is made up of Perry, St. Francois, and Ste. Genevieve Counties. 42.6% (15618) of residents live in Ste. Genevieve with 40.5% in St. Francois and 17% in Perry. Joe Fallert (D-Ste. Genevieve) is the incumbent representing this district.

HD120 is an open seat made up of Crawford and Phelps Counties. 24067 residents (66%) are in Crawford County with the other 34% in Phelps County. The district is 59/41 (2002/2010) and 56/44 (2008) Republican.

HD124 is an open seat made up of Camden and Miller Counties. 22175 (60%) Residents are from Camden County with the other 40% from Miller County.

HD125 is an open seat made up of Benton, Cedar, Hickory, and St. Clair Counties. A plurality of residents live in Benton County (10807, 29%). With 26.6% in St. Clair County, 26% in Hickory County, and 18% in Cedar County. The District may wind up with an incumbent, remember that Wanda Brown is paired in the 57th district with Scott Largent. The district is 57/43 (2002/2010) and 55/45 (2008) Republican.

HD126 is an open seat made up of Bates and Vernon Counties. 21159 (57.7%) live in Vernon County wiith the remaining 42% in Bates County. The district is 54/46 (2002/2010) and 51/49 (2008) Republican.

HD127 is made up of Barton, Cedar, Dade, and Jasper Counties. A plurality of residents live in Jasper County (14828, 40.5%) with 34% in Barton, 22% in Dade, and 4% in Cedar. Mike Kelley (R-Lamar) represents this area. It went 72/28 (2002/2010) and 68/32 (2008) Republican.

HD142 is an open seat made up of Howell, Phelps, Pulaski, and Texas Counties. A majority of residents live in Texas County (26008, 70%) with 13% in Pulaski, 11% in Howell, and 6% in Phelps. You wouldn’t know this from seeing election results from this area in the last 7 years, but the seat was held by a Democrat until 2005. But nowadays, the seat is 61/39 (2002/2010) and 63/37 (2008) Republican.

HD143 is made up of Dent, Oregon, Reynolds, and Shannon Counties. The plurality of District residents live in Dent County (15657, 43.7%) with 30% in Oregon County, 24% in Shannon County, and 2% in Reynolds County. The district is represented by Jason Smith and is 59/41 (2002/2010) and 58/42 (2008) Republican.

HD144 is an open seat (for now) made up of Iron, Reynolds, Washington, and Wayne Counties. The plurality of district residents live in Iron County (10630, 30%) with 28% in Wayne County, 26% in Washington County and 16% in Reynolds County. I’d guess Paul Fitzwater (R-Potosi) will run in this seat. The district went 52/48 Republican (2002/2010) and 52/48 Democratic (2008).

HD145 is made up of Bollinger, Madison, and Perry Counties. A plurality of district residents live in Perry County (12765, 34.2%) with 33.1% in Bollinger and 32.7% in Madison. The incumbent in this area is Shelley Keeney (R-Marble Hill). The district went 65/35 (2002/2010) and 62/38 (2008) Republican.

HD148 is an open seat made up of Mississippi and Scott Counties. 26447 residents (73%) live in Scott County with 27% in Mississippi County. This seat will likely be opened up when Steve Hodges makes his run in the 149th district double-official (He only has “almost 100 percent surety” of running in the 149th now). This district is 62/38 (2002/2010) and 60/40 Republican.

HD150 is an open seat (for now) made up of Dunklin and Pemiscot Counties. Dunklin County has more residents (24366, 67%). There is a strong likelyhood that Kent Hampton (R-Malden) runs here instead of HD152. The district is 56/44 (2002/2010) and 52/48 (2008) Democratic.

HD151 is an open seat made up of Scott and Stoddard Counties. Stoddard County has more people (29968, 83%). This district is 64/36 (2002/2010) and 63/37 (2008) Republican.

HD153 is a seat made up of Butler, Carter, Ripley, and Wayne Counties. Ripley County makes up a plurality of the district’s population (14100, 38.1%). 36% live in Butler County, 17% in Carter County, and 9% in Wayne County. The district’s incumbent is Steve Cookson (R-Fairdealing). Cookson will be one of at least one members of the House to keep the same district number. There might be a second member who keeps the same house district somewhere in the St. Louis area. The district is 65.5/34.5 (2002/2010) and 66/34 (2008) Republican.

HD155 is a seat made up of Douglas, Ozark, and Taney Counties. Douglas County has a plurality of District residents (13684, 37%) with 36% in Taney County and 26% in Ozark County. The district’s incumbent is Lyle Rowland and the district is 69/31 (2002/2010) and 65/35 (2008) Republican.

HD158 is an open seat made up of Barry, Lawrence, and Stone Counties. Barry County residents comprise 95.6% of the district (35597 of 37210 people). With 3.5% in Lawrence and 0.8% in Stone Counties. The seat is opened by term limits and is 70/30 Republican (2002/2010 and 2008)

HD162 is an open seat made of Jasper County and 132 residents of Newton County. Yes, 99.6% of district residents are from Jasper County. The closest paired incumbent is Charlie Davis who could run here instead of the 163rd. This seat is 76/24 (2002/2010) and 70/30 (2008) Republican.

So, when it comes to the splitting of counties. Several Counties could have had a majority of residents in a district if they weren’t divided. Those counties are Benton County (19 thousand, split two ways, most influential in HD125 with 29%), Miller County (24748 people, split 4 ways, highest share was 40% in HD124), Perry County (almost 19 thousand, split two ways, most influential in HD145), Ste. Genevieve (18145 people, most influential in HD116), and Washington County (25195 people, most influential in HD118).

But in most cases, even with the random division of counties (Johnson County, Randolph County), these counties have a majority of residents in at least one district. So it all works out in the end.

So this wraps up another edition of Missouri’s redistricting, and the various bits of information about the new districts and where the incumbents are eyeing a move to help their chances in 2012.

Representative Chris Molendorp (r) (123rd Legislative District – Cass County) sent an e-mail to his constituents expressing his displeasure with the Appellate Apportionment Commission:

The map of the new legislative districts in Cass County – from the Appellate Apportionment Commission.

[….]

Rep. Chris Molendorp – Capitol Report – December 2, 2011 – My thoughts on the redistricting maps for the legislative districts in Missouri.

December 2, 2011

[….] Belton has been split from Raymore for the first time in 20 years! District 123 is no longer in Cass County.

I will run for re-election in the newly created 56th District which includes all of Belton, Loch Lloyd, Martin City, Richards-Gebaur and the new Honeywell Plant, Cleveland, Freeman, West Line, Everett, Main City, Drexel and the Northwest Corner of Bates County. Over 34,000 Cass Countians are in this district, along with 720 Bates Countians and 1,442 Jackson County residents. The majority of my constituents in the old 123rd District are still in the newly created 56th District with the exception of the City Limits of Raymore.

As a Cass County native, I’m thrilled to serve a larger geographic area of Cass County. While Belton and Raymore’s population has grown too much to be kept together, it’s shameful that Raymore was cut up into pieces by the panel of judges who clearly have never been in Cass County or care about our citizens. It’s even more ridiculous that our County Seat, Harrisonville, was cut into two pieces as well. At the VERY MINIMUM, a County Seat with a population less than the average State Representative district should stay together as a “community of interest”. This seems to be a simple concept. Then again, these are judges that determined California and Columbia should share a district and that Warrensburg should be split in two through the campus of UCM. Other communities like Washington, Perryville and Farmington got split up, too. I guess the common theme is that judges don’t live in places like that. They must live in bigger, better communities with gates and 24 hour security; they don’t have time to consider the needs of trailer trash like us. Besides, it’s hard to get a good look at the typical Missouri community from the back seat and through the tinted windows.

That’s ok, no hard feelings. I won’t consider ANY of this when I’m considering their budget next year and their $130,000 salaries. Or their case loads. Or their appointment until they turn 70. Naw, I’ll let that go…

Revenge is a dish that’s best eaten cold…

The map of the old legislative districts in Cass County – from the Appellate Apportionment Commission.

…This isn’t about D or R. And this isn’t about a district needing to completely honor the incorporated “city limit” lines of a particular town. City limit lines change over time, growth or recession, annexation or de-annexation change the incorporated “lines” of a city or village often. Just look at Pleasant Hill, Belton or Raymore. My folks moved to Peculiar in 1977. City limit lines have changed a dozen times since then. No, this is an issue that’s larger than that. This is about our communities in the broader sense. This is about preserving “communities of interest”; those communities that share colleges, interstate highways, water districts, school districts, levee districts and fire protection districts. This is about districts that share common employers and common culture. This has nothing to do about how you vote. This is about districts that are compact and contiguous and not districts that look like commas and spider webs on the map. How can I argue that my new district is a “community of interest”? While the Cass County portion is absolutely a “community of interest”, the northern boundary of my district is now Blue Ridge Blvd and State Line Road. The Southern boundary is Highway 18, just north of Merwin and Adrian. Seriously. No, I’m serious. Click the link and look at the map.

I will work for them, too, but I think a reasonable Cass Countian recognizes what a silly argument it would be to say rural Bates County and Richards-Gebaur look alike, have the same culture, economy and employment patterns. Martin City, RG, Belton and Loch Lloyd-sure, close in geography and culture, close to KC; yeah, that’s pretty reasonable. Cleveland and Freeman are just south; many folks there drive into the city to work; we share Cass County-yeah that’s ok, too. But to make my district 37 miles in one direction when there are 100,000 people in Cass County in an easily identified, compact and contiguous area? To split our County Seat and our second largest town is a silly argument, too. Well, the judges never called me. I’m just a dumb legislator….

A comment on the State Senate maps: I’m curious as to how a community of 100,000 people-US-gets split into THREE Senate districts, one of which goes to Hermitage, one that goes into Clay County and another that puts us in with Blue Springs. Clearly the judges view Cass County as an insignificant community full of people not worthy of representation. In all three examples, needs of the state’s ninth largest county will fall behind the needs of everyone else. Cass County will be forgotten.

[….]

s/Chris Molendorp

“…District 123 is no longer in Cass County…”

Uh, the district numbers can change with redistricting. They have in the past, they did this time, and they will in the future.

“…Revenge is a dish that’s best eaten cold…”

Yeah, he actually put that in writing.

The Appellate Apportionment Commission has placed Senator David Pearce (r) and Representative Mike McGhee (r), a declared candidate for the Senate, in the same district. Senator Bill Stouffer (r) is term limited out in 2012.

The map of the new 21st Senate District, including Carroll, Chariton, parts of Johnson, Lafayette, Livingston, Pettis and Saline Counties – from the Appellate Apportionment Commission.

Well, that’s awkward.

CANDIDATE Date Established: 11/1/2005

Date Terminated:

COMMITTEE: MECID:C051254

MCGHEE FOR SENATE

5583 GRUBB RD

ODESSA MO 64076

[….]

TREASURER: VALETA A MCGHEE

[….]

DEP. TREASURER: VALETA A MCGHEE

[….]

CANDIDATE: MIKE MCGHEE

5538 GRUBB RD

ODESSA MO 64076

[….]

OFFICE SOUGHT: STATE SENATORDISTRICT 21

Date of Election:8/7/2012

Political Party:REPUBLICAN

[emphasis added]

We can compare the fundraising numbers:

REPORT SUMMARY

MCGHEE FOR SENATE [pdf] 10/10/2011

1. Total Receipts For This Election Previously Reported $4,220.44

2. All Monetary Contributions Received This Period $1,150.00

10. Expenditures made by cash or check this period $1,010.71

18. Total Contributions Made This Period $400.00

27. Money On Hand at the close of this reporting period $1,942.24

34. Total Indebtedness at the Close of This Reporting Period $500.00

[emphasis added]

That’s not very impressive. But wait, there’s more:

Campaign Finance: bad timing (November 6, 2011)

Last week at the Missouri Ethics Commission:

C051254 11/03/2011 MCGHEE FOR SENATE Sam Howard Regional Group, Imagine Schools, Inc. 107 Concord Street Holliston MA 01746 11/3/2011 $7,500.00

On the same day in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

Imagine Schools places top executive on leave

BY ELISA CROUCH […] Posted: Thursday, November 3, 2011 12:06 am

….The company has placed Sam Howard, executive vice president, on administrative leave pending the results of an internal investigation. Imagine spokeswoman Lori Waters said. The Post-Dispatch reported that a contracting firm that renovated Imagine school buildings had made $32,000 in payments to a “Sam Howard.” Howard had no explanation for the payments.

The Missouri Public Charter School Association is now calling for an investigation of the schools by the state auditor….

Well, that’s interesting.

And for David Pearce (r):

REPORT SUMMARY

PEARCE FOR SENATE [pdf] 10/17/2011

1. Total Receipts For This Election Previously Reported $67,512.57

2. All Monetary Contributions Received This Period $54,580.00

10. Expenditures made by cash or check this period $5,370.84

18. Total Contributions Made This Period $5,000.00

27. Money On Hand at the close of this reporting period $99,336.22

34. Total Indebtedness at the Close of This Reporting Period $79,239.76

[emphasis added]

Ouch, that’s a lot of debt. It’s in a different league than Mike McGhee (r), but we all know the right wingnuts come out for republican primaries…

What’s a republican incumbent to do? The Appellate Apportionment Commission cut Representative Denny Hoskin’s (r) base out from under him.

The map of the new 51st Legislative District, including the eastern half of Warrensburg, part of Pettis County, and the city of Marshall in Saline County – from the Appellate Apportionment Commission.

Denny Hoskins (r) lives approximately two and a half miles from the far southwest corner of the new 51st Legislative District. A district which, at close to fifty miles from corner to corner, includes a good chunk of Saline County and the city of Marshall in Representative Joe Aull’s (D) old district. Representative Aull (D) cannot run again due to term limits.

Knob Noster, in eastern Johnson County and a significant contributor to Hoskin’s margin in 2008 (a narrow victory with a recount), is now lumped in with Sedalia in the new 52nd Legislative District. On the other side, Warrensburg is cut in half, with the University of Central Missouri (and those presidential election year student voters in the dorms) in the new 54th Legislative District.

Let’s take look at that new 51st Legislative District:

Appellate Apportionment Commission

House Redistricting Plan

Election Returns Data [pdf]

2002 through 2010 Merged, 2008 and 2010

November 30, 2011

District 51

% Democratic 02 to 10 58.5%

% Republican 02 to 10 41.5%

% Democratic 2008 55.7%

% Republican 2008 44.3%

% Democratic 2010 51.1%

% Republican 2010 48.9%

Whoa. A 58.5% Democratic performing district, with a 51.1% performance in 2010 when Democrats didn’t bother voting? 2012 won’t be 2010.

And to further demonstrate that the Appellate Apportionment Commission has a sick sense of humor and is well attuned to karma, the Missouri Valley Community Action Agency is located in Marshall. Uh, oh.

From September 2010:

Rep. Denny Hoskins (r) and the Film Festival: that was then, this is now – part 2 (September 28, 2010)

The saga of a small town film festival, a desperate republican politician, teabaggers and the stimulus continues.

Remember this, from Representative Denny Hoskins’ (r-noun, verb, CPA) September 20, 2010 Capitol Report?:

…My own questions were based on those I received from constituents concerning the film festival.  As you can see, I did not request funding be withheld or rescinded.  I simply asked how people who need assistance would be helped by the film festival.  Since the film festival was held, I have received even more questions from constituents.  The idea of a film festival or similar event to shine a spotlight on the Warrensburg community is not in itself a bad idea.  How to pay for this event is what concerns me…

[emphasis added]

In today’s Warrensburg Daily Star-Journal, front page, above the fold:

9/28/2010 1:44:00 PM

Spotlight still shines on film fest [broken link]

Jack Miles

Editor

….Rep. Denny Hoskins took partial credit for the withdrawal of funds in a Sept. 10 release labeled, “Rep. Denny Hoskins helps recover Social Services funding inappropriately used….”

Apparently it’s really convenient to immediately claim credit when teabaggers have been complaining and it’s also really convenient to walk it all back when more rational constituents wonder what the big to do was all about….

And, according to RBH (via e-mail), the population breakdown in the new 51st Legislative District is:

HD51 population split by county

Johnson: 13156

Pettis: 3834

Saline: 18449

The results in the 26th Legislative District (Marshall and Saline County) in 2010?:

Official Election Returns

State of Missouri General Election  – November 2, 2010 General Election

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

As announced by the Board of State Canvassers

on Tuesday, November 30, 2010

State Representative – District 26 – Summary

Precincts Reporting 28 of 28

 Aull, Joe DEM 9,271 100.0%

Total Votes   9,271

State Representative – District 26 – County

Aull, Joe   DEM

 LAFAYETTE 3,945

 SALINE 5,326

That’s right, no republican bothered to run in 2010, a republican teabagger year.

And 2008?:

Official Election Returns

State of Missouri General Election  – 2008 General Election

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

As announced by the Board of State Canvassers

on Tuesday, December 02, 2008

State Representative – District 26 – Summary

Precincts Reporting 30 of 30

 Aull, Joe DEM 13,211 100.0%

Total Votes   13,211

State Representative – District 26 – County

Aull, Joe   DEM

 LAFAYETTE 5,647

 SALINE 7,564

Again. It’s the same story in 2006.

In 2004:

Official Election Returns

State of Missouri General Election

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

As announced by the Board of State Canvassers

on Wednesday, December 01, 2004

State Representative – District 26 – County

[….]

SALINE

Aull, Joe DEM 5,989

Begley, Kevin  REP 2,539

That’s a huge margin.

This doesn’t look very good for Representative Denny Hoskins (r). There may be an out:

Missouri Constitution

Article III

LEGISLATIVE DEPARTMENT

Section 4

Qualifications of representatives.

Section 4. Each representative shall be twenty-four years of age, and next before the day of his election shall have been a qualified voter for two years and a resident of the county or district which he is chosen to represent for one year, if such county or district shall have been so long established, and if not, then of the county or district from which the same shall have been taken.

Source: Const. of 1875, Art. IV, § 4.

[….]

Since the Appellate Apportionment Commission came up with the new districts less than a year before the 2012 election, does “…if such county or district shall have been so long established, and if not, then of the county or district from which the same shall have been taken….” mean that Denny Hoskins can run in the 54th Legislative District by moving to the west side of Warrensburg, or in the 52nd Legislative District by moving to Knob Noster? Does he even need to move for 2012? Just asking.

And if Denny Hoskins (r) decides to run in the 51st Legislative District does anyone think the HRCC will run robocalls on his behalf? Do republicans have all the money they need?

Presented with minimal comment, a collection of local news stories of the early reactions and pivoting from the new legislative maps.

From the Columbia Daily Tribune: Chris Kelly considering a run in the 47th (50/50 on the 02/10 av) over the 50th (55/45 Republican on the 02/10 av). Former Boone County Presiding Commissioner Don Stamper is considering a run for the 47th if Kelly doesn’t run there. Columbia School Board member Jonathan Sessions is considering running for the 45th if Mary Still runs against Kurt Schaefer for the 19th Senate District.

From the Washington Missourian comes a quote that could be repeated in a few parts of the state from Franklin County Presiding Commissioner John Grieshamer:

“It is terrible, The (26th) Senatorial District is real good, but the House districts, they basically took a stick of dynamite and blew them up.”

A newer article from the Missourian has the Dave v. Dave showdown at a moment of uncertainty as both Dave Schatz and Dave Hinson are unsure of what to do. Scott Dieckhaus speaks of differences between the communities on both sides of his 61st district. Brian Nieves is happy with his district.

Springfield News-Leader: Incumbents looking over the maps, still making considerations for future moves.

Daily Dunklin Democrat: Kent Hampton was surprised to find that he’d be put in 152nd district. Hampton may choose to run in the open 150th district (which averages 56/44 Democratic from 2002 to 2010). Meanwhile State Senate candidates Billy Pat Wright (R-Dexter) and Terry Swinger (D-Caruthersville) are joined by State Rep. Ellen Brandom (R-Sikeston).

Southeast Missourian brings news of Holly Rehder (R-Sikeston), who was running to replace Ellen Brandom, being shown no mercy by the etch-a-sketch Redistricting force.. she got dropped into the 149th district (which is 50/50 on average) instead of a district like the 148th (which was 62/38 Republican on average). Incumbent State Rep Steve Hodges (D-East Prairie) was put in the 148th but may run in the 148th or 149th.

Jason Holsman announced his candidacy in the 37th district, and endorsed Kevin McManus for the 36th district.

Rick Stream is running in the 90th

STL Post-Dispatch notes that Tishaura Jones may run for STL City Treasurer in 2012.

And there’s this from Wednesday:

Sen. John Lamping, R-Ladue, said he hadn’t had time to figure out the implications yet.

“What district do I live in?” he asked.

Probably a relevant question. (Answer: Lamping lives in the 24th, with Jane Cunningham. Cunningham will be running in the 27th, presumably with the help of efficient child labor)

Some people have suggested Iowa-style redistricting for Missouri. In lieu of Iowa-style redistricting, we’re getting lots of paired incumbents.

How many?

54 (link says 55, includes David Day, who is term-limited)

So there won’t be 25 incumbent v. incumbent battles. Let’s layout the possibilities and likelyhoods for the districts.

Here’s one quirk about residency rules. Since they enacted the map this late, the “one year from the election” residency rule in the Constitution doesn’t quite take effect.

Let’s read the text of the relevant section:

Article III, Section 4. Each representative shall be twenty-four years of age, and next before the day of his election shall have been a qualified voter for two years and a resident of the county or district which he is chosen to represent for one year, if such county or district shall have been so long established, and if not, then of the county or district from which the same shall have been taken.

This text dates from 1875. Missouri’s House was elected by county until 1966. So the wording is outdated. But it’s not a bug, it’s a feature. If you go by the exact wording, incumbents can either run in their own district, run in a district that overlaps with their district (there may be some legal wrangling as to the definition of district, if it’s the same number, or same territory) or same county.

Now, if anybody switches districts, they’d have until November 2013 to establish residency in their new district to run in 2014.

That being said, let the list begin

You can follow along at home by going to the OA’s New Legislative District Mapper

2 Casey Guernsey (R-Bethany), Glen Klippenstein (R-Maysville)

Klippenstein would have the advantage in a primary as he lives in the largest county in the 4 county 2nd. But Klippenstein left the Senate after almost half a term in 1994 in favor of letting Sam Graves move from the House to the Senate. Guernsey has more time in the House, but he could be an underdog here.

5 Tom Shively (D-Shelbyville), Lindell Shumake (R-Hannibal)

This district is Shumake’s old district without Ralls and with Shelby County. Shumake’s 2010 victory came over Carl Thompson of Monroe City. So the odds have to favor Shumake over Shively for a few reasons. But if Shively has a strong showing outside of Marion County and can fare somewhat well in Marion, he could make it interesting.

21 Tom McDonald (D-Independence), Ira Anders (D-Independence)

The 21st appears to include more of Ira’s district than Tom’s district. In all likelyhood, a primary is avoided here and Ira Anders would get to represent this district.

24 Mike Talboy (D-Kansas City), Judy Morgan (D-Kansas City)

Judy Morgan would likely step aside, take in this session, and possibly run in 2014 when Talboy is termed out of the Legislature.

36 Jason Holsman (D-Kansas City), Kevin McManus (D-Kansas City)

If I had to wager, I’d wager on McManus running in the 37th which includes a lot more of his current district than the 36th. Pairing Holsman and McManus is no stunner as both of them lived close to each other.

43 Jay Houghton (R-Martinsburg), John Cauthorn (R-Mexico)

Houghton would rather run for the Senate than lose a primary here (for the sake of reference, Cauthorn is termed out of the Senate). So i’d imagine the 7th Senate district which is a larger version of Houghton’s current house district is more tempting than facing a guy from a larger town in your county.

50 Caleb Jones (R-California), Chris Kelly (D-Columbia)

Jones has been rumored to be running statewide. A large number of voters are in Boone County and not on Jones’ side of the river. But if you go off of partisan leanings, the district leans Republican and will be a big target no matter which Republican runs.

57 Scott Largent (R-Clinton), Wanda Brown (R-Lincoln)

Either one of these Representatives could run for the Senate in the opened 31st District. Brown got in a car accident in January and broke her neck. If there’s any Rep here more likely to step aside, it might be Brown. If there’s any Rep more likely to run for the Senate, it’s Largent. But this district is 50/50, so if no incumbent runs here somehow, it’ll be interesting. If the incumbent isn’t based in Henry County, it could be more competitive than otherwise. The 125th district is also open for Wanda Brown if both Brown and Largent wish to stay in the Legislature.

67 Sylvester Taylor (D-Black Jack), Steve Webb (D-Florissant)

There is an open Senate seat in this area. No idea on which incumbent has an upperhand on population, as Webb has the Western half and Taylor has the Eastern half. But Taylor lost everything south of 270.

76 Jamilah Nasheed (D-STL), Karla May (D-STL), and Chris Carter (D-STL)

Moments like this make me wish I had more knowledge of the world of St. Louis politics. May and Nasheed being paired wouldn’t have been shocking. Pairing 3 incumbents is a bit much here. Carter represented the parts of the 76th north of I70 aside from one neighborhood which is in Karla May’s 57th district. May represents the parts of the district west of Union Blvd until it cuts over into the area mentioned earlier. Nasheed represents the areas around Kingshighway and Penrose. How this breaks down statistically is not known to me right now. Ask a St. Louisian in the meantime.

85 Clem Smith (D-Velda Village Hills), Sharon Pace (D-Northwoods)

The district is a bit shaped like an upsidedown V. The district goes from the county/city line to St. John, then goes south to Page Avenue and 170. Both incumbents live in the Eastern half of the district. Pace was elected in 2008, Smith was elected in 2010. Can’t really make a diagnosis of what will happen here.

87 Stacy Newman (D-STL Co), Susan Carlson (D-STL Co)

Carlson represents part of the city of St. Louis right now. With how little of her current district is now in the 87th, it would make sense for Carlson to run in a STL City district, but the catch is that it appears her district in STL City got a bit chopped up. The 83rd and 84th are open. But the 83rd seems pretty STL County heavy and the 84th is majority-African American. So no idea on what happens here.

88 Jill Schupp (D-Creve Coeur), Tracy McCreery (D-STL Co)

West of Lindbergh Blvd, it’s Schupp’s district. East, it’s mostly McCreery’s district which she won on November 8th. Ladue is added. Until I know more about the populations, I can’t say for sure who is a favorite, but Schupp would probably be a favorite here. Although, it’s not like Tracy McCreery let being the underdog stop her before.

89 Rick Stream (R-Kirkwood) and John Diehl (R-Town and County)

Cole McNary (R-Chesterfield) was included in the district but he chose to run for Treasurer. Manchester Road appears to be the main dividing line between the districts currently represented by Stream and Diehl. It should be noted that Stream is a few blocks away from the purple-ish open 90th district, which is similar to his current district.

92 Genise Montecillo (D-STL County), Scott Sifton (D-STL County)

Both incumbents live around Affton and their seats were joined together. Sifton’s current seat goes from Affton to Lemay. Montecillo’s current seat goes from Affton to around Bevo Mill in STL City. So naturally their district is condensed from the city/County line to Concord. Sifton’s house is in the 1st Senate District (Montecillo is in the 4th SD) and the bluer 93r
d district is wide open right now. No idea what happens here.

97 Gary Fuhr (R-STL County), John McCaherty (R-High Ridge)

From what I can tell on the map, the 97th District is very similar to McCaherty’s district, but with Fuhr’s neighborhood in STL County included now. Neither district near Fuhr’s house is open. So he doesn’t have a lot of options.

100 Don Gosen (R-Chesterfield), Sue Allen (R-Town and County), and Andrew Koenig (R-Winchester)

Koenig is blocks away from the open 99th District. Gosen is blocks away from the open 101st district. So all sorts of things could happen here. No idea who has the advantage if 2 of these incumbents tangle.

103 Doug Funderburk (R-St. Peter’s), Kurt Bahr (R-St. Charles)

Looks like the only options are retirement, a primary battle, or start looking for a house in the 107th district.

110 Paul Curtman (R-Pacific), Tim Jones (R-Eureka)

Pretty sure this ends with Paul Curtman deciding to do something else with his life. Jones has the advantage in geography, status, stature and everything else for this race. Curtman’s current district is mostly the new 111th, which seems real blue for a Freshman to willingly try moving into.

118 Ben Harris (D-Hillsboro), Paul Fitzwater (R-Potosi)

3/5ths of the population is in Jefferson County, Harris has represented a lot of Washington County in this district. Fitzwater could stay where he’s at and take on a 59/41 Dem district, or move across the highway (being literal, the line is that close to his house) and go for the 144th (which is 52/48 Republican). That’s a tough one.

119 Dave Schatz (R-Sullivan), Dave Hinson (R-St. Clair)

Both guys are Republicans, Both guys are freshmen, Both guys are from Franklin County, Both are named Dave. No idea which way this goes.

133 Thomas Long (R-Battlefield), Eric Burlison (R-Springfield)

Seems like there’s no options other than primary or someone backs down.

148 Ellen Brandom (R-Sikeston), Steve Hodges (D-East Prairie)

Brandom is running for the Senate. Pairing averted. Hodges is also very close to the open bluer 149th (which includes East Prairie, but not his house).

152 Kent Hampton (R-Malden), Todd Richardson (R-Poplar Bluff)

Butler County makes up 4/5ths of the district. Most of Hampson’s current seat is the opened and bluer 150th. The Senate Seat is also open if neither House open is alluring enough. Decisions, Decisions.

160 Bill Lant (R-Joplin), Bill Reiboldt (R-Neosho)

Newton County had 3 State Reps living there. So one side-effect of putting all of McDonald County in one district (HD159) is that Lant and Reiboldt are paired against each other in HD160. No idea what will happen there.

163 Charlie Davis (R-Webb City), Tom Flanigan (R-Carthage)

Webb City is divided, with part of it in the open 162nd. But i’d imagine Flanigan would have the upper hand here.

So, that’s another installment of the Redistricting Drama that we’ll get to live through this winter. We’ll have even more soon.

Today, the white smoke came out of the chimney of the Redistricting Commission and maps were submitted with the Secretary of State.

Quick and Dirty Missouri Senate Redistricting comments

Because there are 34 Senate Districts and 163 House Districts and the house map is a bit disorienting (the winner of the House redistricting? the printers who will have to make new business cards for every House member).. I will start with the Senate.

First Impressions, District by District

District 1: Becomes more Republican as the STL County areas closest to the City move to the 4th District. Jim Lembke is the Incumbent.

District 2: Loses Lincoln County and takes in the more Republican Western half of St. Charles. Open in 2014.

District 3: Acquires Cape Girardeau and Perry. Keeps St. Francois and Ste. Genevieve. Can’t imagine it not going Republican. Open in 2012

District 4: Veers into Lemay. Safe Democratic. Joe Keaveny is the incumbent.

District 5: Moves a bit West intl St. Louis. Safe Democratic. Robin Wright-Jones is the incumbent.

District 6: Moves towards the Ozarks. Mike Kehoe is the Incumbent.

District 7: New Seat. Takes in a lot of traditionally Dem turf and some long-standing Republican areas. Should be competitive in 2012.

District 8: Is shaped like a blade. Goes from the Jackson/Lafayette line on 24 Highway to Longview Lake. Will Kraus is the incumbent.

District 9: Now goes from Ruskin Lake to the Historic Northeast KC. Kiki Curls is the Incumbent.

District 10: Goes from North Kansas City to Belton. Seriously. I doubt the additions will be able to overwhelm the Plaza/Brookside core of the district. This district will be open in 2014. Until then, hope Raymore enjoys Jolie Justus.

District 11: Independence and Raytown stay together. Although some areas move from 8 to 11. The seat is open and Paul LeVota is still the only contender in the ring for the 11th.

District 12: A lot more compact. Still Republican. Takes in Ray County. Open in 2014.

District 13: Moves towards Bridgeton. Open in 2012.

District 14: Takes in Clayton and Richmond Heights. Loses space in the Western end of the district. Represented by Maria Chappelle-Nadal.

District 15: Moves from Maplewood/Webster Groves to Peerless Park to Ballwin. Represented by Eric Schmitt.

District 16: A lot more concise. Goes from Rolla to Camdenton with Lebanon and Waynesville as destinations. Representated by Dan Brown.

District 17: Clay County (except for North KC and Kearney). Liberty. Gladstone. Pleasant Valley. Should still be competitive. But moved a bit to the Republicans. Open in 2012.

District 18: Adds some Republican areas (Trenton), adds Moberly, drops Mexico and Pike County. Represented by Brian Munzlinger.

District 19: Boone and Howard County reunited. Randolph County seemed to be more Republican friendly than Howard County lately. Represented by Kurt Schaefer. Could be competitive.

District 20: Republican County. Eastern Greene County, Webster, Wright, Christian, Douglas. Represented by Jay Wasson.

District 21: Now adds Warrensburg, David Pearce, and Sedalia. Why they had to split Johnson County is a mystery, but the House map is worse for the County. Could be competitive with the right candidate. Represented by David Pearce.

District 22: Most of Jefferson County, Washington County, Iron County, Reynolds County, and Madison County. Open in 2014, should be competitive but leans Dem. Why Jefferson County doesn’t have it’s own seat is a mystery.

District 23: Eastern St. Charles. The bluer St. Charles District. Represented by Tom Dempsey.

District 24: Maryland Heights, Part of Chesterfield, Olivette. Represented by John Lamping (who has a few years to move in if he wants it).

District 25: The entire Bootheel is in one district with Bollinger, Scott, Stoddard and Wayne Counties. The seat is open as well. So it might be competitive in 2012.

District 26: Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade, and Warren Counties. Represented by Brian Nieves.

District 27: Moved to West County STL and Northern Jefferson County. I think Jane Cunningham lives here now.

District 28: Nevada, Stockton, Bolivar, Buffafo, Willard. Republican Country. Represented by Michael Parson

District 29: The Ultimate Republican Country. Open in 2012.

District 30: Springfield! Might be slightly bluer. But still represented by Bob Dixon.

District 31: A lot of the current 28th and 31st districts, along with Southeastern Jackson County. Open Seat.

District 32: Jasper and Newton Counties. Represented by Ron Richard.

District 33: Poplar Bluff to Theodosia. Goes north to Texas and Dent Counties. Open Seat. Doesn’t Frank Barnitz live here?

District 34: Buchanan and Platte Counties. Same district. Represented by Rob Schaaf.

Overall, there isn’t a drastic change from the cruel status quo of the Missouri Senate. There are some oddities from the line drawing hurt Dems. But there are opportunities as well.

So here’s the map, with the seats open in 2012 in white, and the seats are open in 2014 in the color of the 2010 victor:

Jackson and Clay Counties:

St. Louis and St. Charles Counties:

The educated guesses appear to have been correct, as the 18 member bipartisan House Redistricting Commission deadlocked on drawing the 163 districts.

Both sides unveiled new maps yesterday but couldn’t move towards a map for their final meeting.

Deeper reviews of both maps might be posted on here although it’s kind of a look at maps that are frozen due to the impasse.

Since the Commission deadlocked, the Missouri Supreme Court will appoint six members of the Court of Appeals to draw districts by December.

The Senate Redistricting Commission might deadlock and require judges to draw the Senate map as well.

Well, the map for 4th Congressional district state House districts proposed by Violet Corbett (R) and Paula Willmarth (D). They’re both members of the 18 member redistricting commission representing the 4th Congressional district.

The map can be viewed at http://oa.mo.gov/bp/redistricting/housemap/ under the label “Corbett Willmarth 4th Cong Tentative”

So here’s the map and some commentary on the districts.

HD26 (open, term-limits, held by Joe Aull (D), 37569 people)

The 26th drops most of Lafayette County (keeping Alma and Waverly) and adds Howard County along with Houstonia and Hughesville. This pretty much moves the 26th back to somewhat close to it’s 1993-2003 form when it last crossed the Missouri River at Glasgow. In all likelyhood, replacing the more Democratic half of Lafayette County with a more 50/50 Howard County may not be a helpful change for an open seat.

HD36 (open, term-limits, held by Bob Nance (R), 36217 people)

The 36th picks up parts of Clay County west of Lawson. No real difference expected.

HD113 (held by Jay Barnes (R), 36351 people)

The 113th takes in most of Jefferson City, dropping Western Cole County.

HD114 (held by Mike Bernskoetter (R), 37082 people)

The 114th takes in St. Martins, some of Jeff City, and Westphalia in Osage County.

The 113th is bluer (if such a thing could exist in Cole County) and the 114th doesn’t seem too odd, aside from the only connection from Cole to Osage county being partially in the 114th.

HD115 (held by Steve Largent (R), 37219 people)

Here’s where it starts to get weird. The 115th takes 120th district incumbent Scott Largent of Clinton and puts him in a district that slices Henry County in half, slices Benton County in three pieces (Warsaw to the 115th), goes into Morgan County (Gravois Mills), and takes in part of Camden County (Climax Springs). It appears the only way to directly cover this district is with a boat. In the scheme of things, there’s not really a need to chop up 4 counties for a district which looks like a dog.

HD116 (held by Wanda Brown (R), 34753 people)

Ok, so that district stands out for being a bit small. It goes from Southern Johnson County and Northern Henry County to Southern Pettis and Northern Benton county to Morgan County (Versailles). Creating a district that is a bit underpopulated and looks like a dragon.

HD117 (held by Caleb Jones (R), 37186 people)

This district doesn’t really change much from it’s current shape aside from picking up more of Cole County and dropping parts of Pettis and Morgan counties.

HD118 (held by Stanley Cox (R), 34888 people)

The district drops Houstonia and Hughesville and adds Smithton.

HD119 (held by Sandy Crawford (R), 35644 people)

The district adds Southeast Benton County.

HD121 (held by Denny Hoskins (R), 36787 people)

The district drops a tiny area north of Knob Noster.

HD122 (open, term limits, held by Mike McGhee (R), 36115 people)

The district adds Lexington and shaves off parts of Johnson and Cass Counties.

HD123 (held by Rick Brattin (R), 35839 people)

The district loses Harrisonville and Peculiar and picks up Raymore and moves towards Pleasant Hill (splitting it with HD125)

HD124 (held by Chris Molendorp (R), 35979 people)

This is a Belton/Peculiar district instead of a Belton/Raymore district.

HD125 (open seat, 32867 people)

This is a very underpopulated district. It combines Harrisonville and central Cass County with Western Johnson County)

HD126 (held by Mike Kelley (R), 37004 people)

This becomes a Barton/Dade district with Southern Vernon and North/West Cedar county.

HD127 (open, term limits, held by Barney Joe Fisher (R), 35337 people)

This district has all of Bates County, Southern Cass (Archie/Drexel) and Northern Vernon (Nevada and north).

HD133 (held by Sue Entlicher (R), 35264 people)

This district goes from all of Cedar and part of Polk to all of Polk and part of Cedar.

HD145 (held by Lyndall Fraker (R), 36678 people)

This district splits Webster County (almost enough people for one district) for no logical reason, in order to split Laclede County (which has enough people for one entire district). Alrighty then.

HD146 (held by Diane Franklin (R), 35470 people)

This district takes in part of Laclede County, then aids in the splitting of Camden County (also with enough people for one district). Franklin is from Camden County, so it’s possible for Laclede County, large enough for it’s own single seat, to not have a single resident in the Missouri State House.

HD147 (open seat, 36895 people)

This district is made up of Waynesville, St. Robert, and Fort Leonard Wood. So the number of voters in this district will lag behind most other districts as it puts all of Fort Leonard Wood in one district.

HD148 (open, term limits, held by David Day (R), 36728 people)

This district is made up of north/west Pulaski County, part of Miller County, and part of Cole County.

HD155 (open seat, 35469 people)

This district is centered around “the Lake”, with Osage Beach, Sunrise Beach, Lake Ozark, Laurie and Camdenton.

Overall..

22 districcts are presented, 13% of the map. 7 of 22 districts are above the ideal of 36741. 3 districts are more than 5% away from 36741 (36741*.95 = 34903.95). If you divide the population of the districts (793341) by the ideal, you get 21.59 districts. So with the area covered, creating 22 districts is a stretch.

Most of the area’s districts are safe Republican, but it’s an exercise in creative linedrawing to split Camden County 3 ways with it not having the entireity of one district, to split Laclede County two ways with a shot that no Laclede County resident is in the Missouri House, to split Henry and Benton Counties west/east, to split Johnson County 4 ways, and some real odd looking things which are more than just adjusting for the Lakes.

The positives include a better district for Lafayette County and the all Jeff City district. But in general, it just seems like there are more flaws than features on this partial redistricting map.

Perhaps I have not written enough about the Missouri State Senate in all the years of writing about elections and more technical stuff involving Missouri politics. But this timeline might give you an idea of why I have not written about the Missouri Senate often in the last 3 years.

1999-2001: The margin is 18 Democrats and 16 Republicans.

November 2000: Republicans pick up their 17th seat when Bill Foster defeats Jerry Howard in the 25th district. But the Democrats vacate 2 seats with Lacy Clay’s election to Congress and Joe Maxwell’s election as Lt. Governor. The Republicans vacate a seat when Sam Graves is elected to Congress.

January 2001: Republicans pick up their 18th seat when John Cauthorn defeats Robert Clayton in the 18th district. They retain the Sam Graves seat, and the Democrats obviously retain the Clay seat. This marks the first since since 1946 that Republicans had a majority in the State Senate

2002, etc: The Republicans picked up 2 seats in 2002 (picking up the 2nd [St. Charles], 20th [Seat that moved west to SW MO], and 34th [Buchanan/Platte] and losing the 26th). They picked up 3 more in 2004 (The 3rd [SE MO], 17th [Clay County], 21st [West Central MO] and 31st [Lower Case R] and they kinda lost the 1st (but that’s a redistricting oddity). While various special elections produced flips like Barnitz picking up Steelman’s seat, the special election where Bill Alter won with 30% because 3 Democrats ran.

Democrats made some progress in 2006, picking up the 18th (Shoemyer), winning back the 22nd (McKenna) and getting Chris Koster to switch parties. The . Then in 2008, they lost 3 seats, the 1st, 19th, and 31st. Then in 2010, they lost 3 more seats. The good news is that we’re not probably not losing 3 more seats in 2012 paring the redistricting commission selling St. Louis and Kansas City.

So the standings are now 26-8. That’s why I’m not huge into talking about the Senate and Senate elections, because most of the drama involves stuff not happening because the Republicans can’t get along, instead of Democrats being able to do anything on their own. That, and the “paper bag of money” campaign finance system really comes into play for the Senate elections.

You can stop drinking or shielding your eyes around this point of the post.

But anyways, let’s do a bit of a background post followed by some possibilities of what might come in 2012.

Before one-man one-vote, the Missouri Senate was malapportioned, but it was not as bad as the Missouri house (which every county had one seat until 1967).

Here’s how the Senate districts looked in 1963:

It’s safe to say that the “Dallas County to Washington County” worm will not be revived in the 2012 map. But trends that will be seen in the maps in the last 50 years involve counties (outside of the metropolitan counties) rarely being split and also the boothill always gets split in multiple pieces (especially since it’s not possible to have a Poplar Bluff to Cape Girardeau district).

But with one-man one-vote advocating the once-controversial idea of all districts having relatively equal population, the 1967 map changed a bit.

Jackson County got an extra district. St. Charles/Warren Counties got their own district. And the world didn’t radically change.

1972:

1982:

1992:

2002:

You can kind of notice some evolving going on, can’t you?

The 2002 districts had a range in population from 159100 (the 3rd) to 170302 (the 25th) when they were drawn. And after the 2010 census, the range is 140093 (the 4th) to 242885 (the 2nd).

So fixes are in order, obviously.

The “ideal” population is 176145, up from an ideal population of 164565 ten years ago. As you can see from the range used in 2002, there’s a shot there’ll be districts within the 5% of the ideal, which means a range of around 168K to 185K.

The counties with the population to support their own district(s) are St. Louis (998954, 5 districts plus a majority in a 6th), Jackson (674158, 3 districts plus a majority in a 4th), St. Charles (2 districts), St. Louis City (1 district and a majority in 2nd district), Greene County (1 district and a majority in a 2nd district), Clay County (1 district), and Jefferson County (1 district).

The counties with the population to have a majority of people in a district: Boone, Jasper, Franklin, Cass, Platte, and Buchanan.

With the possible deviations from 176145, a few possibilities can be seen before we go to the commissioners maps.

1) St. Charles County could just get split 2 ways. Both districts would be around 180K. If St. Charles is split evenly, then the rest would likely go into a district with Warren or Lincoln Counties.

2) Jasper and Newton counties are perfectly paired. Their combined population is 175518.

3) Platte and Buchanan Counties will likely continue their marriage as well. Combined their population is 178523.

So let’s look at the maps.

Map A was proposed by Commissioner Doug Harpool.

One of the more interesting quirks of this map involve moving district numbers around. The 18th is moved to SE Missouri for some reason. The 27th is moved to NE Missouri. Now, if Missouri elected all 34 members in 2012, that wouldn’t matter as much. But with the odd-numbered districts up in 2012 and the even numbered up in 2014, it’s kind of a prickly issue. The designations of 18th and 27th could be easily retained as is.

Also, there’s a case of switching the 29th on this map to be the 31st, the 24th on the map to be the 29th, and the 31st on this map to be the 24th. Although with the odds/evens, my idea would mean that St. Louis resident John Lamping would be technically representing a fork shaped district in West-Central Missouri. But if he likes the Ozarks enough, he could always establish residency at a lake house. But those are cosmetic comments.

As for the Harpool map in the metro areas.

The surplus of Jackson County is paired with the surplus of Clay County. His STL map pairs Lembke and Schmitt in a district which includes Clayton, Kirkwood, and Richmond Heights. It also pairs Lamping and Chappelle-Nadal and puts Jane Cunningham in a much bluer district, while making West County the surplus and giving it to Brian Nieves.

14 of the 33 districts don’t split any county lines (and the 3rd and 12th provide enough info without partial counties), so I checked the results from 5 elections (2 ‘generic’ elections from 2008 [Koster and Zweifel], 1 ‘good Dem performance in a bad Dem year’ (Robin Carnahan in 2004), 1 ‘Dem-friendly’ election from 2006 [Susan Montee] and 1 ‘Dem-unfriendly’ election from 2010 [Susan Montee]).

Two Harpool districts were won by all 5 candidates. The 3rd outside of Jefferson and the 19th. Several districts were won by 2 or more candidates. The 21st and 27th were won by Montee06 and Robin04. The 29th and 34th were won by Koster, Montee06 and Robin04. Montee’s 2006 performance was unusually good for a downballot Dem in the outstate areas, as she also won the 12th and 31st. So take it with a grain of salt.

The range of percentages from the 5 campaigns, from highest to lowest was.. (Montee 06 is highest and Montee 2010 is lowest unless noted otherwise)

3rd: 49.9% to 61.05%

6th: 36.65% to 46.6%

12th: 32.6% to 52.2% (Zweifel is the low mark, as he was facing 12th district Senator Brad Lager)

16th: 33.9% to 44.9%

18th: 29.8% to 43.7% (Koster is the high mark)

19th: 48.3% to 57.55%

21st: 40.4% to 52.8%

24th: 28.2% to 38.7%

25th: 35% to 49.5%

27th: 41.5% to 53.1%

28th: 31.9% to 39.4%

29th: 43.8% to 55.5%

31st: 38% to 50%

3
2nd: 22.2% to 32.7%

33rd: 33.9% to 42.8%

34th: 46.8% to 55.1%

So, the other 18 districts split with 2 in St. Charles, the West County/Franklin District, 7 districts in STL, the Jefferson County district, the Springfield district, the Greene/Christian donut, the Clay County district, and 4 Jackson County districts. Those 18 could split 11-7 D in good years (with 6 wins in STL/STLCo, a hold of the JeffCo district, holds of the 3 KCMO districts, and a win in Clay County). Then the 3rd/19th/29th/34th are winnable with an outside shot at the 21st/27th. Finding a plausible scenario of Democrats getting 17 seats from this map is always a good sign to it’s abilities. I might be underselling Dems in the proposed 15th and Springfield too.

So with those happy thoughts out in the open, how about Map B proposed by Republican commissioner John Maupin?

When your party has a 26-8 advantage. You’re obviously going to propose a very status-quo friendly map. (And you’ll also pair historically-Republican Cooper County with Boone County to help our the Republican Senator from Boone)

The map moves the historically Republican Putnam County from the 18th to 12th. Macon county moves from the 21st to the 18th. Montgomery County moves from the 16th to the 18th. Randolph County moves from the 19th to the 21st. Cooper County moves from the 21st to the 19th. Pettis County moves from the 28th to the 21st (very historical!). Vernon County moves from the 31st to the 28th. Moniteau and Morgan Counties move from the 6th to the 28th. Osage and Gasconade move from the 16th to the 6th. Dallas County moves from the 28th to the 33rd. Douglas and Webster Counties move from the 20th to the 33rd. Ozark County moves from the 29th to the 33rd. Howell, Oregon and Shannon Counties move from the 33rd to the 3rd. Ste. Genevieve County moves from the 3rd to the 22nd. Lincoln County moves from the 2nd to the 26th.

So, how about a look at the metro areas?

That tail in the Springfield district might blow Maupin’s shot at a “neat and tidy redistricting award”.

The KC area map keeps 3 Dem districts (The 11th goes into redder territory, but the Southern Clay area will make up for it). Moving the 11th into Southern Clay means that the Clay County district is more Republican-friendly. Think of Clay County like an unusual sandwich. Republicans in the north, a mix of Rs and Ds in the middle, Democrats in the South. The Congressional map put the Democrats in the Jackson County-anchored 5th and this map is following in that tradition of putting them where they can’t hurt Republicans. Now, it’d be far more logical to have a Clay County district that is mainly suburban and put Smithville and other northern areas into another district. But this is redistricting, not logic.

As for St. Louis, he tried real hard to make the 24th into a dependable Republican district, stretching the 24th from Ellisville to Bridgeton to Richmond Heights. The 1st losing South St. Louis is expected, and they’re rolling the dice that Affton doesn’t cause problems electorally. Moving the 7th into Northwest Jefferson County means that Jefferson County, has the population for one whole district, will not get that district. But the 22nd becomes a Democrat sanctuary district by adding Ste. Genevieve County.

So let’s go back to the results sheet to see how this map slices up the state.

One district is won 4 of 5 candidates (SD19 is won by Koster, Montee06, Zweifel, and Robin04 and lost by Montee10). SD3 is won by Koster and Montee06. SD31 and SD34 are won by Koster, Montee06, and Robin04. So let’s take a look at the ranges. (Once again, best is Montee06, worst is Montee2010, unless otherwise noted)

SD3: 43.5% to 54.9%

SD6: 34.9% to 45.15%

SD12: 33.1% to 52.1% (Zweifel is the low-point here, look to the previous list for why)

SD16: 36.9% to 46.6%

SD18: 42.1% to 53%

SD19: 47.2% to 56.6%

SD21: 42.5% to 55.2%

SD25: 34.4% to 49.1%

SD26: 40.6% to 52.6%

SD27: 30% to 44% (high percentage is Koster’s)

SD28: 35.6% to 46.3%

SD29: 28.5% to 39.1%

SD31: 39.3% to 50.7%

SD32: 22.75% to 33%

SD33: 32.3% to 40.4%

SD34: 46.8% to 55.1%

So, in the 18 districts which weren’t listed above, the Dems would hold the 8 seats they currently hold. The Republicans would have the upperhand in the 1st, 7th, and 15th in STL, the 8th in Jackson County, both St. Charles County seats, both Greene County seats, and Clay County. And maybe the 24th turns competitive in the decade. As for the 16 districts listed above, the Dems would have a good shot at 4 of them (3rd/19th/21st/34th). So if they run the table, the Senate is still 22-12.

In closing…

1) the districts in St. Louis County will be vital. Currently the St. Louis County delegation is 4-2 Republican (a flip from 4-2 Democratic before 2008). With the right lines, the delegation could return to 4-2 Democratic in the next two elections.

2) Clay County is also going to be important. The Harpool district is more competitive than the Maupin district (which puts North KC into a Democrat sanctuary with Independence).

3) A Boone/Howard 19th has 172K people in it and is bluer than a Boone/Cooper 19th (which has 180K people). The logistics of getting from Boone to Howard and Boone to Cooper are another matter. But at the same time, Howard County could benefit from not being on the other side of a river in it’s State Senate district.

4) There are areas outside of Kansas City and St. Louis that can be won by Democrats. The 3rd and 21st will be important in 2012. Winning back the 19th is vital. Hopefully future statewide campaigns don’t go the route of the last statewide campaign in those areas.

5) Seriously, Jasper and Newton Counties in the 32nd. I’m not sure why Dade County is still with the 32nd on the Maupin map. Does the ecosystem fall apart if you take Dade County and put it in another Republican district? There’s no road that takes you directly from Jasper to Dade Counties. Look it up.

6) I doubt much will be done to alter the division of the Boothill. But a district of just Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Perry, Scott, and Stoddard Counties is very close to the ideal population. The 25th may look a bit more odd without Stoddard County, but with all the 5% deviation districts that they’re gonna do, they could do a district with a .00012489 deviation (22 people away from the ideal). Just an idea.

7) I’m not exactly expecting a split of Kirksville and Hannibal in the 2012 Senate map. I’m hoping the Ste. Genevieve to Shannon area winds up in the same district. Hopefully the judges who draw the map don’t put Southern Clay and Independence into a vote-sink. And hopefully the St. Louis County Senate delegation isn’t 66% Republican in a strongly Democratic county soon.

8) Maps don’t make elections. Candidates make elections. So all this goes out the window if the Democrats don’t/can’t compete in winnable districts. Missouri’s campaign finance system is incredibly incumbent friendly. There’s only two ways to get around that, get the law changed via initative (and prepared to do that over and over) or neutralize their strength with a combination of money and hard work and money and money and money.

And thus ends a mandatory minimum look into the Missouri State Senate and elections. Hopefully the Senate Democratic Caucus gains enough members to field a baseball team in 2013.