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Some people have suggested Iowa-style redistricting for Missouri. In lieu of Iowa-style redistricting, we’re getting lots of paired incumbents.

How many?

54 (link says 55, includes David Day, who is term-limited)

So there won’t be 25 incumbent v. incumbent battles. Let’s layout the possibilities and likelyhoods for the districts.

Here’s one quirk about residency rules. Since they enacted the map this late, the “one year from the election” residency rule in the Constitution doesn’t quite take effect.

Let’s read the text of the relevant section:

Article III, Section 4. Each representative shall be twenty-four years of age, and next before the day of his election shall have been a qualified voter for two years and a resident of the county or district which he is chosen to represent for one year, if such county or district shall have been so long established, and if not, then of the county or district from which the same shall have been taken.

This text dates from 1875. Missouri’s House was elected by county until 1966. So the wording is outdated. But it’s not a bug, it’s a feature. If you go by the exact wording, incumbents can either run in their own district, run in a district that overlaps with their district (there may be some legal wrangling as to the definition of district, if it’s the same number, or same territory) or same county.

Now, if anybody switches districts, they’d have until November 2013 to establish residency in their new district to run in 2014.

That being said, let the list begin

You can follow along at home by going to the OA’s New Legislative District Mapper

2 Casey Guernsey (R-Bethany), Glen Klippenstein (R-Maysville)

Klippenstein would have the advantage in a primary as he lives in the largest county in the 4 county 2nd. But Klippenstein left the Senate after almost half a term in 1994 in favor of letting Sam Graves move from the House to the Senate. Guernsey has more time in the House, but he could be an underdog here.

5 Tom Shively (D-Shelbyville), Lindell Shumake (R-Hannibal)

This district is Shumake’s old district without Ralls and with Shelby County. Shumake’s 2010 victory came over Carl Thompson of Monroe City. So the odds have to favor Shumake over Shively for a few reasons. But if Shively has a strong showing outside of Marion County and can fare somewhat well in Marion, he could make it interesting.

21 Tom McDonald (D-Independence), Ira Anders (D-Independence)

The 21st appears to include more of Ira’s district than Tom’s district. In all likelyhood, a primary is avoided here and Ira Anders would get to represent this district.

24 Mike Talboy (D-Kansas City), Judy Morgan (D-Kansas City)

Judy Morgan would likely step aside, take in this session, and possibly run in 2014 when Talboy is termed out of the Legislature.

36 Jason Holsman (D-Kansas City), Kevin McManus (D-Kansas City)

If I had to wager, I’d wager on McManus running in the 37th which includes a lot more of his current district than the 36th. Pairing Holsman and McManus is no stunner as both of them lived close to each other.

43 Jay Houghton (R-Martinsburg), John Cauthorn (R-Mexico)

Houghton would rather run for the Senate than lose a primary here (for the sake of reference, Cauthorn is termed out of the Senate). So i’d imagine the 7th Senate district which is a larger version of Houghton’s current house district is more tempting than facing a guy from a larger town in your county.

50 Caleb Jones (R-California), Chris Kelly (D-Columbia)

Jones has been rumored to be running statewide. A large number of voters are in Boone County and not on Jones’ side of the river. But if you go off of partisan leanings, the district leans Republican and will be a big target no matter which Republican runs.

57 Scott Largent (R-Clinton), Wanda Brown (R-Lincoln)

Either one of these Representatives could run for the Senate in the opened 31st District. Brown got in a car accident in January and broke her neck. If there’s any Rep here more likely to step aside, it might be Brown. If there’s any Rep more likely to run for the Senate, it’s Largent. But this district is 50/50, so if no incumbent runs here somehow, it’ll be interesting. If the incumbent isn’t based in Henry County, it could be more competitive than otherwise. The 125th district is also open for Wanda Brown if both Brown and Largent wish to stay in the Legislature.

67 Sylvester Taylor (D-Black Jack), Steve Webb (D-Florissant)

There is an open Senate seat in this area. No idea on which incumbent has an upperhand on population, as Webb has the Western half and Taylor has the Eastern half. But Taylor lost everything south of 270.

76 Jamilah Nasheed (D-STL), Karla May (D-STL), and Chris Carter (D-STL)

Moments like this make me wish I had more knowledge of the world of St. Louis politics. May and Nasheed being paired wouldn’t have been shocking. Pairing 3 incumbents is a bit much here. Carter represented the parts of the 76th north of I70 aside from one neighborhood which is in Karla May’s 57th district. May represents the parts of the district west of Union Blvd until it cuts over into the area mentioned earlier. Nasheed represents the areas around Kingshighway and Penrose. How this breaks down statistically is not known to me right now. Ask a St. Louisian in the meantime.

85 Clem Smith (D-Velda Village Hills), Sharon Pace (D-Northwoods)

The district is a bit shaped like an upsidedown V. The district goes from the county/city line to St. John, then goes south to Page Avenue and 170. Both incumbents live in the Eastern half of the district. Pace was elected in 2008, Smith was elected in 2010. Can’t really make a diagnosis of what will happen here.

87 Stacy Newman (D-STL Co), Susan Carlson (D-STL Co)

Carlson represents part of the city of St. Louis right now. With how little of her current district is now in the 87th, it would make sense for Carlson to run in a STL City district, but the catch is that it appears her district in STL City got a bit chopped up. The 83rd and 84th are open. But the 83rd seems pretty STL County heavy and the 84th is majority-African American. So no idea on what happens here.

88 Jill Schupp (D-Creve Coeur), Tracy McCreery (D-STL Co)

West of Lindbergh Blvd, it’s Schupp’s district. East, it’s mostly McCreery’s district which she won on November 8th. Ladue is added. Until I know more about the populations, I can’t say for sure who is a favorite, but Schupp would probably be a favorite here. Although, it’s not like Tracy McCreery let being the underdog stop her before.

89 Rick Stream (R-Kirkwood) and John Diehl (R-Town and County)

Cole McNary (R-Chesterfield) was included in the district but he chose to run for Treasurer. Manchester Road appears to be the main dividing line between the districts currently represented by Stream and Diehl. It should be noted that Stream is a few blocks away from the purple-ish open 90th district, which is similar to his current district.

92 Genise Montecillo (D-STL County), Scott Sifton (D-STL County)

Both incumbents live around Affton and their seats were joined together. Sifton’s current seat goes from Affton to Lemay. Montecillo’s current seat goes from Affton to around Bevo Mill in STL City. So naturally their district is condensed from the city/County line to Concord. Sifton’s house is in the 1st Senate District (Montecillo is in the 4th SD) and the bluer 93r
d district is wide open right now. No idea what happens here.

97 Gary Fuhr (R-STL County), John McCaherty (R-High Ridge)

From what I can tell on the map, the 97th District is very similar to McCaherty’s district, but with Fuhr’s neighborhood in STL County included now. Neither district near Fuhr’s house is open. So he doesn’t have a lot of options.

100 Don Gosen (R-Chesterfield), Sue Allen (R-Town and County), and Andrew Koenig (R-Winchester)

Koenig is blocks away from the open 99th District. Gosen is blocks away from the open 101st district. So all sorts of things could happen here. No idea who has the advantage if 2 of these incumbents tangle.

103 Doug Funderburk (R-St. Peter’s), Kurt Bahr (R-St. Charles)

Looks like the only options are retirement, a primary battle, or start looking for a house in the 107th district.

110 Paul Curtman (R-Pacific), Tim Jones (R-Eureka)

Pretty sure this ends with Paul Curtman deciding to do something else with his life. Jones has the advantage in geography, status, stature and everything else for this race. Curtman’s current district is mostly the new 111th, which seems real blue for a Freshman to willingly try moving into.

118 Ben Harris (D-Hillsboro), Paul Fitzwater (R-Potosi)

3/5ths of the population is in Jefferson County, Harris has represented a lot of Washington County in this district. Fitzwater could stay where he’s at and take on a 59/41 Dem district, or move across the highway (being literal, the line is that close to his house) and go for the 144th (which is 52/48 Republican). That’s a tough one.

119 Dave Schatz (R-Sullivan), Dave Hinson (R-St. Clair)

Both guys are Republicans, Both guys are freshmen, Both guys are from Franklin County, Both are named Dave. No idea which way this goes.

133 Thomas Long (R-Battlefield), Eric Burlison (R-Springfield)

Seems like there’s no options other than primary or someone backs down.

148 Ellen Brandom (R-Sikeston), Steve Hodges (D-East Prairie)

Brandom is running for the Senate. Pairing averted. Hodges is also very close to the open bluer 149th (which includes East Prairie, but not his house).

152 Kent Hampton (R-Malden), Todd Richardson (R-Poplar Bluff)

Butler County makes up 4/5ths of the district. Most of Hampson’s current seat is the opened and bluer 150th. The Senate Seat is also open if neither House open is alluring enough. Decisions, Decisions.

160 Bill Lant (R-Joplin), Bill Reiboldt (R-Neosho)

Newton County had 3 State Reps living there. So one side-effect of putting all of McDonald County in one district (HD159) is that Lant and Reiboldt are paired against each other in HD160. No idea what will happen there.

163 Charlie Davis (R-Webb City), Tom Flanigan (R-Carthage)

Webb City is divided, with part of it in the open 162nd. But i’d imagine Flanigan would have the upper hand here.

So, that’s another installment of the Redistricting Drama that we’ll get to live through this winter. We’ll have even more soon.