You can follow the filing here. For best results in finding new candidates on Monday/Tuesday, just do a text search for the current date.

There are two days left in candidate filing, and as with anything involving candidates and possible candidates, there will be more candidates filing on Monday and Tuesday. So here’s a dry journey of the races without a filed major party candidate.

Blaine Luetkemeyer gets a new district number and a new district shape (the new 3rd looks like a worm attempting to eat St. Louis), but Blaine doesn’t have a Democratic opponent for the 3rd. Luetkemeyer became the first major party candidate to get a free pass from the other major party since Bill Clay in 1970 back in 2010, (edit: so a Dem not running v. him in 2012 would make it two elections in a row). Libertarian Steven Wilson is seeking to oppose Luetkemeyer though.

The other 7 districts are contested by both parties. The only major party candidates currently unopposed in their primary are Luetkemeyer, Teresa Hensley/Vicky Hartzler in the 4th, Emanuel Cleaver in the 5th and Jim Evans (D-Republic) in the 7th.

Under the fold, the State Senate and the State House!

Now in the State Senate, the Republicans don’t have a candidate in the 5th, 9th, 11th, and 13th. None of which is a huge surprise. The Republicans still have Jane Cunningham filed in the 7th despite the fact that the 7th moved cross-state to Kansas City. So might as well count that as a “seat with no major party candidate filed)

As for the Democrats. Well. No candidate in the 15th (59/41R), 21st (55/45D), 23rd (56/44R), 27th (66/34R), 29th (70/30R), 31st (54/46R), or 33rd (66/34R). So that’s 7 of 17 seats. In 2008, only one of those seats was uncontested (the 29th). The 02/10 numbers are not perfect (because they count uncontested state house races, and inflates the results from places like the 21st). But it’s a mix of areas that at least drew a candidate or two, even against incumbent Senators.

The House has Republicans in 125 seats and Democrats in 93 seats, with a Democrat/Republican matchup in 55 seats.

The most Democratic seat with a Republican candidate is the 24th where House Democratic Leader Mike Talboy is facing his first Republican opponent ever in a 85/15 Dem seat.

The most Republican seat with a Democratic candidate is the 134th, where Democrat James Owen will face the winner of the Republican primary in a seat around 2-1 Republican.

As for Blueish seats with no candidate.. the 29th (South Independence) has a Dem candidate who hasn’t filed yet. The 11th (Platte/South Buchanan) is still Galen Higdon v. nobody. The 14th is Ron Schieber v. nobody.

The seats that are around 50/50 in some measurement (using the official state measurements) with no Democratic candidates are the 119th (Franklin County, Dave Hinson), the 35th (Lee’s Summit with part of Kansas City, Gary Cross), the 60th (all-Jeff City, Jay Barnes) and the 90th (Kirkwood, Rick Stream).

The 48th (Boonville and assorted parts of Howard/Saline/Pettis Counties, Open) is near that list. Along with the 57th (Henry and Benton Counties, Wanda Brown) and 106th (Eastern St. Charles, Chrissy Sommer).

Of the districts with one of the measurements showing a D/R split of under 10% either way or an incumbent in a more challenging district, Republicans haven’t filed in 3 of those seats, Democrats haven’t filed in 18 of those seats.

Or to put in in chart form (with the 02/10 numbers used)

Don’t you love it when 50/50 is a mark with 59 seats on one side and 99 seats on the other side? But then again, Democrats only hold 57 seats, so 59 or 62 or 64 is an improvement. Aw, 2010.

Ultimately, this year in Missouri redistricting is brought to you by chaos (which is the new normal in Missouri Politics). But I don’t think you can place your bets on the House map going away. Probably the same for the Senate map, but anything is possible there. And definitely the same for the Congressional map (compactness is apparently just a word, not an order)

For the sake of history, the number of legislative candidates who filed on the last two days in 2008? 45 candidates.

The number of legislative candidates filing on the last two days in 2010? 42.

(And some of them actually won, although that list for non-“Incumbent withdraws suddenly” scenarios is mostly Kurt Schaefer, Cole McNary, Eileen McGeoghegan and Penny Hubbard)

The maps are as set as they’re ever gonna be. Time to roll, candidates.

As you may have noticed in the last 10 months of Senate redistricting, the process of redistricting has been hard to figure out in regards to the Senate.

After the passage of a Tentative Map on February 23rd, the window for public comment opened. Every e-mail except a few were negative. Most hit the same general points pushed by Republicans like Jim Lembke and Jane Cunningham, and there were a lot of people in the New 10th who weren’t happy either.

Presenting 10 comments from the hundreds of e-mails which stood out for various reasons.

1. (2/27/2012) I heard a comment by one of the commissioners that he did not believe this would give an advantage to either of

the political parties. “Show Me Progress” thinks otherwise –

http://www.showmeprogress.com/…

Whoops, guess we should have kept quiet for longer.

2. (2/27/2012) This is a real bummer. I don’t want to be represented by someone living 150 miles away.

Yeah, but until they elect all the Senators in years ending in 2, you’re gonna get that somewhere in Missouri. The 7/10 split is a more public and well-known example of that. But the current 3rd district was represented for 2 years by a St. Louis area Senator from 2003 to 2005 and four counties went 6 years between electing Senators. In the 7/10 split, every county in the new 10th was in an even-numbered district and elected a Senator in 2010. In the 1990s, the 28th Senate district was split in two and dispersed between the 12th and 18th districts. Thus Steve Danner was the Senator representing the Southwest Missouri from 1993 to 1995.

So, you look at the history, and Missouri has done far worse if you look at just the Senatorial districts and disregard the Senators and de-facto Senators.

As to the reaction to Jolie Justus’ de-facto stint representing East-Central Missouri. I guess we could tally to see how many respondents correctly spelled her last name.

3. (3/4/2012) Senate District 7 (Cunningham Republican, Chesterfield) in St. Louis County which is up for election this year was arbitrarily moved across the state to a very urban, Democrat district in Kansas City that previously had an even number and was therefore not up for election.

This appears purposeful to increase the Democrat vote in a very liberal area for the upcoming

critical national and state elections not to mention provide an extra Democrat senator for

the next two legislative sessions.

Who knew that a likely to be unopposed (or minimally opposed) Democratic State Senate candidate in Kansas City was going to lead to a turnout spike in the city? The second part is technically correct, we get a free Senator for 2 years, which would be awesome if we got enough Senators to mount a filibuster. But our Senate caucus can field a baseball team in 2013.

4. (3/5/2012) The population numbers in St. Louis City and County were changed enough to yield only one Republican Senator from the area in the near future rather than the present four. Without having vigorous Republican senate campaigns in St. Louis County, the needed 150,000 votes needed to win statewide elections for Republicans is lost. This map is clearly a Democrat’s and a liberal’s dream map and unfortunately the Republicans on the Commission gave away the store.

(…)

The clear advantage given away to the Democrats for the national and statewide campaigns (Obama, McCaskill, Nixon) by transferring District 7 into downtown Kansas City to energize that liberal population not only for the Democrat primary but the general election. It is hard to imagine Republicans would vote to so benefit the Democrats in such a critical election year.

If you actually look at the St. Louis election results, you’ll be amused at the calls of how unfair it is that St. Louis County wouldn’t mostly be represented by Republicans. Oh no. An area that hasn’t been won by a statewide Republican since 2000 won’t have a majority of the Senate delegation.

Also, we covered the mass conspiracy to energize the liberals with an easy District 7 win.

5. (3/5/2012) Missouri’s proposed re-districting unfairly puts Republicans up for re-election in districts disproportionately populated by Democrats. State population migration to these newly enhanced Democratic districts further disadvantages Republican candidates with the additional potential of a loss of seats.

(plays a violin)

This is a deviation from the usual talking point that people are migrating to Republican areas.

“Oh no, we won’t be able to keep a 26-8 advantage in the Missouri Senate. How unfair!”

6. (3/6/2012) Please say “no” to the new State Senatorial map. Do not succumb to the governor. The map is heavily in favor of the Democratic party. It is unfair to St. Louis County residents by producing more Senators from urban areas with lower populations.

I would be very disappointed to think that my Republican Representatives are intentionally trying to push the election in favor of Obama cronies, who are bringing the demise of our country and our freedoms as we have known them since the beginning, to our country. Our children and grand-children’s futures are at stake in this next election.

Forget about infighting and do the right thing for Missouri residents and our country and say “yes” to the previous judicial map.

I can’t imagine how this line of debate didn’t succeed.

7. (3/7/2012) Please drop the uncontitutional map in Senate District 10. We do NOT want Senator Justus from Kansas City to be our senator. We did not vote for such a man!

Not sure if a subtle slur or total confusion.

The e-mails on the 7th, 8th, and 9th mainly involve people using the commission to just adopt the “2nd judicial commission map”, which is likely not constitutional anyways. Some of the e-mails advised a small fix in Springfield, which looks to have been acknowledged. One e-mailer suggested she would move to South America if Obama was re-elected.

8. (3/8/2012) Sir, I’ve been reading several article’s that are saying that the “New” redistricting maps will leave us Rural Missourians, basically, at the mercy of the Big City voters. Please do not think that us Rural People are just peons that do not know what is happening. In other words, we are not dummies that can’t read or write and/or know who we want to be our Representatives and Senators. I’ve been requested to ask you and your Commission to stay with the Second Judicial Commission Map, basically, so that we,as Rural Voters, do not have the Large City Voters telling us what to do. I thank you for your time.

“I’ve been requested to ask you” is probably not an ideal line to include in the e-mail when they’ve already gotten a variety of e-mails saying the exact same thing. Extra points for saying that, then saying that the big cities will tell us what to do. Yeah, they’re really dominating the Senate, aren’t they.

The whole Urban/Rural thing is a traditional redistricting problem which was handled in the 60s after the One-Man/One-Vote decisions. Once upon a time in Missouri, Worth County had a State Representative.

In the 2002 map, 12 districts were in Jackson County or St. Louis City/County. In the 2012 map, 11 districts were in Jackson County or St. Louis City/County. So if this map was a scheme to put down the Rural people, they sure did it subtlely.

Granted, judging by the addresses of the people bringing up the tyranny of urban districts crushing the suburbs, a lot of them are from Suburbs. The last quote was from a Rural Area though, from Bloomfield in Stoddard County, which was in the same district on the 2nd Judicial Map and the Tentative Map.

9. (3/8/2012) How can any responsible senate committee take a highly republican and
rural district like District 7 in Chesterfield and

move it to an urban, Democratic district 200 miles away?

Chesterfield? rural area? yeah, 70 years ago it was. Now? Not quite.

Barring more successful lawsuits, the Senate Redistricting Saga is over. And despite hundreds of e-mails saying the same thing, the vote went from 8-2 to 10-0. Amazing how trying to appeal to partisanship failed to swing the 4 pro-map Republicans away from their map. Amazing.

Now we live in a tyrannical state where Democrats have a shot at 10 of 34 Senate seats. Maybe 13 or 14 if the Republican partisans move to South America in 2013. Get your duct tape.

Your quick and dirty, district by district look at the tentative map (a.k.a. “Map 3”) agreed at Midnight by a 8-2 vote of the 2012 Senate Apportionment Commission.

The Map can be viewed here

District 1 (South County) goes into Webster Groves, and went for Obama by around 10%. Which essentially means that Jim Lembke is not in a good spot for re-election to the Senate v. an opponent like Sue Schoemehl. Rumors seem to suggest that Lembke might be looking for a statewide campaign as an exit strategy out of this situation. The Incumbent is Jim Lembke, Likely D

District 2 (West St. Charles) is pretty much the same district as anybody expected. The line between 2 and 23 cuts through the middle of the county. Weldon Spring in the 23rd. Cottleville divided, St. Peters divided, and so on. Open in 2014, Solid R.

District 3 is essentially the same as the current district 3, with minimal changes in Jefferson County (all of Hillsboro is in the 3rd) and losing Carter county. The district was 50/50 in the 2008 Presidential election and is very winnable for Democrat like Joe Fallert.

District 4 is now the Western Edge of STL and Shrewsbury and part of Jennings. Represented by Joe Keaveny, Safe Democrat.

District 5 is the Eastern part of STL. Represented by Robin Wright-Jones, Safe Democratic.

District 6 is Cole, Gasconade, Maries, Miller, Moniteau, Morgan, and Osage Counties. Represented by Mike Kehoe, safe Republican.

District 7 is the first random number shift. As the district moves from West County STL to the current location of the 10th Senate District in KCMO. So congrats to that part of the state for getting 2 Senators for 2 years. The 7th district is open, and Safely Democratic.

District 8 is pretty much the same Republican area of Jackson County, represented by Will Kraus.

District 9 now snakes from Northeast Kansas City to Unity Village. It’s represented by Kiki Curls.

District 10 is now located in Eastern Missouri for some reason. It takes in Audrain, Callaway, Lincoln, Monroe, Montgomery, and Warren Counties. It’ll be represented by Kansas City Democrat Jolie Justus until 2014. Why in the world they put 7 in Kansas City and 10 in Eastern Missouri is a complete mystery to me. There’s already 2 Senate Districts up for election in Jackson County in 2012, and moving 7 to Jackson means that there’s only one Senate district up in Jackson County in 2014. Although Paul Quinn now has something to do in 2014 when he’s termed out of the House. So that might be a reason for the numbering. And to Senator Justus, have fun Representing Eastern Missouri for 2 years.

District 11 is mostly Independence with parts of Northeast Kansas City, Eastern Kansas City and Raytown included to give Paul LeVota new places to campaign. Solidly Democratic.

District 12 is Northwest Missouri, going from Atchison County to Putnam County, taking in part of Clay County. Open in 2014, Solid Republican.

District 13 is North County STL, an open seat and solidly Democratic.

District 14 is a bow from Clayton to Jennings to Bridgeton, Solidly Democratic.

District 15 moves a bit West and looks like it’s gonna be solid Republican turf for Eric Schmitt.

District 16 takes in Camden, Crawford, Dent, Phelps, and Pulaski. It’ll probably be comfortable enough for Dan Brown in 2014.

District 17 went for Obama by 4%. Which would be comforting if there was an announced Democratic Candidate. But there’s still time, maybe even until the end of April if we’re lucky. Ryan Silvey is the Republican candidate for this seat and will be looking over the map to find split towns as a source of complaint. Silvey’s the favorite to win the 17th but one day it’ll be won by Democrat again, we’re sure.

District 18 goes from Pike County to Clark, over to Schuyler, down to Macon, over to Linn and Randolph, and then to Shelby. For a district that was traditionally Democratic and could be contested by someone in the future. The incumbent is Brian Munzlinger.

District 19 is Boone and Cooper Counties. It’s a better marriage for Kurt Schaefer in his race v. Mary Still. The district still went for Obama by 9%. Enjoy all your trips to Boonville on I-70, Candidates!

District 20 is Christian County and a donut shaped part of of Greene County. Represented by Jay Wasson.

District 21 goes from Johnson County, up to Lafayette, to Saline, Howard, Chariton, Livingston, Caldwell, Ray, and Carroll. The district went for McCain by 13% but could be a 50/50 district on the state level. David Pearce will be the incumbent in the district, but he hasn’t represented any part of the district outside of Johnson County.

District 22 is pretty much the same part of Northern Jefferson County as before. It’ll be open, competitive, but leaning Dem.

District 23 is Eastern St. Charles County. Pretty much the same district as the previous district but more eastern.

District 24 moves west a bit for Republican incumbent John Lamping. Town and County, Creve Coeur, Maryland Heights, Ladue. STL experts can make the call here.

District 25 drops Ripley County, and adds Shannon, Mississippi, and Carter Counties. Terry Swinger and Billy Pat Wright are likely opponents for this open Senate Seat, which would presumably lean R, but having Dunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties in the same district will have to be a team to overcome the Republican margins in Butler and Stoddard Counties.

District 26 is Franklin County and West County STL. Brian Nieves is the State Senator. And Jane Cunningham is a resident of the district (yes, Jane Cunningham looks to be drawn out of the Senate on this map, barring a UHaul truck taking her to another part of St. Louis County). Safe Republican.

District 27 goes from Scott County, to Cape County to Perry, Madison, Wayne, and Bollinger. It’s an open seat which will be contested by Wayne Wallingford and Ellen Brandom. Safe Republican.

District 28 is a bit less complex now. It goes from Cedar County over to Laclede. And it goes from Polk County to Pettis County. Represented by Mike Parson, still Republican.

District 29 is Barry, Lawrence, McDonald, Stone, and Taney Counties. I think it’s open in 2012 (I believe Goodman is termed out).

District 30 is Springfield.

District 31 goes down US71 from Cass to Barton County, and it also includes Henry and St. Clair Counties. Scott Largent is running for the Senate and will continue doing so. And maybe someone from the current 31st will run as well.

District 32 is Dade, Jasper, and Newton Counties. Represented by Ron Richard. Safe Republican.

District 33 goes down the Arkansas Border from Ozark to Ripley Counties. It also includes Douglas, Webster, Wright, and Texas Counties.

District 34 is Buchanan and Platte Counties.

Here’s a low-tech map showing the districts (without going into the bigger counties to show the splits)

So, do your own math. Even if doing math in the morning is a risk.

From the Missouri court system:

SC92282 – SXR BOB JOHNSON, ETAL, REL V ROBIN CARNAHAN,RES (E-CASE)

Date Filed: 01/23/2012 Location: SUPREME COURT OF MISSOURI

Case Type: AP Writ of Prohibition Disposition: Case Disposed- By Order

From the docket entries:

SC92282 – SXR BOB JOHNSON, ETAL, REL V ROBIN CARNAHAN,RES (E-CASE)

01/26/2012   Case Disposed- By Order

  PER CURIAM ORDER ISSUED. SEE ATTACHED DOCUMENT. CAUSE DISPOSED BY PER CURIAM ORDER. ORDER: MOTION TO WAIVE THE REQUIREMENTS OF RULE 84.22(A) SUSTAINED. UPON CONSIDERATION OF THE PETITION, AND FINDING THIS CASE, UNLIKE STATE EX REL. TEICHMAN VS. CARNAHAN, NO. SC92237, DECIDED JANUARY 17, 2012, INVOLVES DISPUSTED ISSUES OF FACT, THE PETITION IS DENIED WITHOUT PREJUDICE TO FILING A DECLARATORY JUDGMENT ACTION IN THE APPROPRIATE CIRCUIT COURT TO RESOLVE THE FACTUAL ISSUES IN DISPUTE IN A MANNER SIMILAR TO PEARSON V. KOSTER, NO. SC92200, DECIDED JANUARY 17, 2012. UPON THIS MATTER BEING FILED IN THE CIRUCIT COURT, THAT COURT SHALL EXPEDITE THIS MATTER TO ENSURE A PROMPT DECISION IN THIS ELECTION CASE. SEE PEARSON V. KOSTER AND STATE EX REL. TEICHMAN VS. CARNAHAN.

Translation: This ain’t like the Senate redistricting which we threw out and we ordered them to start over. If you want to do so, file it in District Court. If this case is filed in that venue that court shall move quickly.

The parties in the case:

SC92282 – SXR BOB JOHNSON, ETAL, REL V ROBIN CARNAHAN,RES (E-CASE)

JOHNSON , BOB , Relator

BRAY , JOAN , Relator

GERLING , GEOFF , Relator

OTTO , BILL , Relator  

NETH , MYRON , Relator  

SALTER , KIT , Relator

SALTER , CATHY , Relator    

WORTHINGTON , JAMES , Relator  

NICHOLS , MARY FONTANA , Relator  

STEINMETZ , KURT , Relator

OSMAN , DAN , Relator

HOLLIGER , ROBERT , Relator  

HOLLIGER , WILLA , Relator  

COX , JEFF , Relator  

CARNAHAN , ROBIN , Respondent     represented by     MORGAN , JEREMIAH JOSEPH , Assistant Attorney General

STATE OF MISSOURI , Intervenor     represented by     LAYTON , JAMES ROBERT , Assistant Attorney General

Any bets on the start of filing for office being on time?

The new 134th legislative District encompassing part of Springfield.

With the redistricting process complete for House districts we’re going to see candidates start setting up their committees and raising money. Yesterday, at the Missouri Ethics Commission:

C121023: Friends Of Elijah Haahr

Po Box 14506 Committee Type: Candidate

Springfield Mo 65814 Party Affiliation: Republican

(417) 693-2138 Established Date: 01/17/2012

2012 State Representative – District 134

[emphasis added]

And here comes some money:

C121023 01/22/2012 FRIENDS OF ELIJAH HAAHR Friends of Lincoln Hough P.O. box 121 Springfield MO 65801 1/21/2012 $1,000.00

C121023 01/22/2012 FRIENDS OF ELIJAH HAAHR Noah Haahr 2856 N Grant Ave Springfield MO 65803 Jamie Hathcock Auto 1/22/2012 $1,000.00

C121023 01/22/2012 FRIENDS OF ELIJAH HAAHR Patricia Musick 1314 W Stone Meadow Way Springfield MO 65810 McAnany, Van Cleave & Phillips 1/22/2012 $501.00

C121023 01/22/2012 FRIENDS OF ELIJAH HAAHR Roger and Kathy Haahr 2529 W Sonya Lane Springfield MO 65803 Home Builder 1/22/2012 $1,000.00

[emphasis added]

It’s nice to have people close to you who can write checks when you run for office.

Apparently Elijah Haahr is a civil litigation attorney and a member of the Greene County Environmental Advisory Board. He’s a republican?:

….What’s one website you check daily?

“I’m kind of a political junkie. I check the Drudge Report and Politico; those are the two a check first thing in the morning….”

Uh, yep.

The Redistricting and Re-Redistricting of the Senate got shot down today by the Missouri Supreme Court due to having too many splits of Jackson and Greene Counties and the attempted replacement of the first Map. The MO Supremes also directed the Congressional Redistricting case to a trial court with a deadline of February 3rd.

So, the Senate Maps are going to another Citizens Commission, and the candidate filing opens on February 28th. Really. (Some dispute as to what is next, KY3 says a judicial commission, even after the decision overruled their ability to revise their map.)

Remember, the map being rejected for violating the Missouri Constitution was drawn by judges. Oops.

Read Teichman v. Carnahan

Senator Jason Crowell (r) prefiled a bill, quite probably in reaction to the legislative and senate district redistricting plans by the Appellate Apportionment Commission:

SJR 37 Relating to meetings of apportionment commissions

Sponsor: Crowell

LR Number: 4678S.01I Fiscal Note not available

Committee:

Last Action: 12/14/2011 – Prefiled

The summary, as filed:

SJR 37 – This proposed constitutional amendment, if approved by the voters, provides that all meetings of any Senate or House apportionment commission, including any appellate apportionment commission, shall be public, and that such commissions shall be subject to general laws concerning open records and open meetings.

It is what it is.

Legislative Redistricting: Denny Hoskins (r) – from the 121st to the 51st (December 4, 2011)

….Representative Denny Hoskins (r) will probably move into the 54th Legislative District….

In today’s Warrensburg Daily Star-Journal, front page, side bar, below the fold:

Hoskins runs in 54th

…After discussions with friends and backers, Rep. Denny Hoskins confirmed he will run in the new 54th District….

[emphasis in original]

Political self preservation once again triumphs over residence.

The Judges say:

The Appellate Apportionment Commission has filed a revised state Senate redistricting plan and map with the Secretary of State. The revised plan was filed within the 90-day period allowed by the Constitution and replaces the plan filed on November 30, 2011. A majority of the Commission opted to revise the plan upon further consideration of a constitutional provision regarding multi-district counties, even though that provision may not apply to redistricting maps drawn by the appellate judges.

The Senate redistricting plan has an overall difference in population of 7.79% between its largest and smallest districts. The plan has four African-American majority districts.

Summary maps and demographic reports describing the new Senate districts are posted on the website: http://oa.mo.gov/bp/redistricting. Additional detailed maps and census descriptions filed with Secretary of State will also soon be available on the website.

Here’s part of the official Map 2 from the OA website

The previous map (from here:

Just so we can see the differences..

Map 1-

SD8:

SD10:

SD11:

SD17:

SD20:

SD21:

SD22:

SD27:

SD28:

SD30:

SD31:

SD33:

Map 2

SD17:

Jackson and parts of Clay and SD21:

South Missouri:

Closeup of Springfield

SD27:

And According to this, the boundary between SD22 and SD27 changes slightly.

Election stats for the effected districts (the old stats are here)

SD08: 58/42 R (2002/2010) / 52.5/47.5 R (2008) [slightly bluer on the 2008]

SD10: 66/34 D (2002/2010) / 68/32 D (2008) [slightly redder]

SD11: 58/42 D (2002/2010) / 64/36 D (2008) [pretty much the same]

SD12: 58/42 R (2002/2010) / 55/45 R (2008) [pretty much the same]

SD17: 51/49 R (2002/2010) / 53/47 D (2008) [a point more Democratic for 02/10, half point more Dem for 2008]

SD20: 68/32 R (2002/2010) / 64/36 R (2008) [slighty more Dem]

SD21: 54/46 D (2002/2010) / 51/49 D (2008) [pretty much the same]

SD22: 60/40 D (2002-2010) / 62/38 D (2008) [pretty much the same]

SD27: 59.5/40.5 R (2002-2010) / 55.5/44.5 R (2008) [slightly redder]

SD28: 66/34 R (2002/2010) / 64/36 R (2008) [slightly redder]

SD30: 56/44 R (2002/2010) / 52/48 R (2008) [pretty much the same]

SD31: 53/47 R (2002/2010) / 52/48 R (2008) [slightly bluer]

SD33: 63/37 R (2002/2010) / 63/37 R (2008) [a point more Democratic]

Last Thursday, I went through the list of paired incumbents and since then, we’ve seen some resolutions to these situations. So let’s narrow the list a bit.

First, the big news that deserves to be above the fold is that Mary Still will challenge Kurt Schaefer in SD19. Which makes the 19th a marquee Senate Race in this cycle.

Chris Kelly has mentioned the 45th district (opened by Still’s departure) as suiting him best. So presumably the 50th district pairing is 99% resolved with Still opening up the 45th for Kelly. Which means the Democratic candidates eyeing the 48th (Stamper, Copenhaver, etc) can move forward unobstructed.

Resolved:

24 Mike Talboy (D-Kansas City), Judy Morgan (D-Kansas City)

Hearing that Judy Morgan will step aside for Mike Talboy in this seat.

36 Jason Holsman (D-Kansas City), Kevin McManus (D-Kansas City)

McManus in the 36th, Holsman to the 37th

89 Rick Stream (R-Kirkwood) and John Diehl (R-Town and County)

Stream to the 90th, Diehl to the 89th

92 Genise Montecillo (D-STL County), Scott Sifton (D-STL County)

Genise Montecillo in the 92nd, Scott Sifton to the 93rd

110 Paul Curtman (R-Pacific), Tim Jones (R-Eureka)

Curtman to 109, Jones in 110

148 Ellen Brandom (R-Sikeston), Steve Hodges (D-East Prairie)

Brandom to SD25, Hodges to HD149. Enjoy your open seat, Sikeston-Charleston!

160 Bill Lant (R-Joplin), Bill Reiboldt (R-Neosho)

Lant to 159, Reiboldt in 160

Almost there?

21 Tom McDonald (D-Independence), Ira Anders (D-Independence)

Heard a solid rumor of a resolution, will probably be official in a few days.

50 Caleb Jones (R-California), Chris Kelly (D-Columbia)

If you missed it above the fold, Kelly is likely to go to the 45th after he spent a few days looking at the 48th.

87 Stacy Newman (D-STL Co), Susan Carlson (D-STL Co)

Susan Carlson: “It’s looking like I will run in the U City, Clayton and Ladue district, but we’re still having talks and looking at the numbers.”

So I think that means Susan Carlson is running in the 87th and the next open district is the 83rd, it appears. And i’m having to compensate for the OA Redistricting site skipping out on us on a Friday.

88 Jill Schupp (D-Creve Coeur), Tracy McCreery (D-STL Co)

“Tracy has said that she will not oppose Jill, I think Jill is going to be one of the leaders in the Democratic Party in the near future.”

100 Don Gosen (R-Chesterfield), Sue Allen (R-Town and County), and Andrew Koenig (R-Winchester)

Koenig to 99, Allen in 100, no word on Gosen?

Up in the Air:

2 Casey Guernsey (R-Bethany), Glen Klippenstein (R-Maysville)

Guernsey is running for reelection while Klippenstein hasn’t decided as of yet

67 Sylvester Taylor (D-Black Jack), Steve Webb (D-Florissant)

76 Jamilah Nasheed (D-STL), Karla May (D-STL), and Chris Carter (D-STL)

85 Clem Smith (D-Velda Village Hills), Sharon Pace (D-Northwoods)

One source i’ve found mentions several rumored races..

* – Taylor v. Webb to happen.

* – Nasheed to run for the Senate v. Robin Wright Jones (Jamilah Nasheed’s Twitter mentions Jeff Smith as the last great leader in STL in the Senate, which I believe is part of the “subtly jab your future opponent before announcing” part of a campaign)

* – Karla May to move to another district (to the South?).

* – Sharon Pace to move to the 74th take on Churie Spreng.

So none of that is quite confirmed (IOW, none of this can be found as official or mentioned from another source yet), but I’d imagine at least 2 or 3 of those items happen.

119 Dave Schatz (R-Sullivan), Dave Hinson (R-St. Clair)

No comments from either Dave

152 Kent Hampton (R-Malden), Todd Richardson (R-Poplar Bluff)

Hampton is taking a look at HD150

No News?:

5 Tom Shively (D-Shelbyville), Lindell Shumake (R-Hannibal)

43 Jay Houghton (R-Martinsburg), John Cauthorn (R-Mexico)

57 Scott Largent (R-Clinton), Wanda Brown (R-Lincoln)

97 Gary Fuhr (R-STL County), John McCaherty (R-High Ridge)

103 Doug Funderburk (R-St. Peters), Kurt Bahr (R-St. Charles)

118 Ben Harris (D-Hillsboro), Paul Fitzwater (R-Potosi)

133 Thomas Long (R-Battlefield), Eric Burlison (R-Springfield)

163 Charlie Davis (R-Webb City), Tom Flanigan (R-Carthage)

And remember, the maps came out under 10 days ago. So there’s still more to come.