The second “Work product of commission” (WPC) map to be reviewed is the Republican commissioners map, which they dubbed “minimum changes”. They called it that, not me or anybody else. Just keep that in mind.

The Republican and Democratic maps contrast in a few ways.

The Democratic map has 13 African-American majority districts (4 in Kansas City, 9 in St. Louis). The Republican map has 11 of those districts (3 in KC and 8 in St. Louis). Apparently the increase in the percentage of African-Americans in Missouri from 11.2% to 11.5% merits a drop in seats.

I know lawyers. I’m sure they can cite specifics. But I know lawsuit bait when I see it. You can see by the percentages listed below that 8 of the 11 districts are 70% or more African-American, an unnecessarily high percentage.

But the Republican map is far less aggressive with pairing (well, aside from two Northeast Missouri Democrats who they paired). As well, they seem to be slightly less willing to cut across county/city lines in some areas (North Missouri). But the Republican map also cuts up Pulaski County, cuts Vernon County in two, continues the cut of Newton County to unintentionally keep a McDonald County resident out of the House, and slices University City across four districts.

The map is also adhering to the idea of “cluster Democrats in as few districts as possible, so that we can have the rest”.

So perhaps minimal change means “minimal change” from the 106 to 57 standings in the Missouri state house. After all, a state which is 54/40 in a bad year is totally a 106/57 state.

Also, it’s worth noting that in all the pairings, the pairing of Craig Redmon (R) and Tom Shively (D) on the Republican map is bold. You will see this when I show you where the district line is located and where Shively’s house is located. Craig Redmon is one of three legislators to get paired on both maps (the others being Lindell Shumake, and Rory Ellinger).

There are some similarities between both maps. They both create new districts in Boone County. Currently Boone has 3 whole districts, part of Quinn’s district and part of Cauthorn’s district. Both maps give Boone 4 whole seats and leave the rest to Cauthorn (Centralia) or Asbury (Harrisburg). Both maps also pair incumbents representing St. Louis City (well, if they didn’t, it’d be a great magic trick, but still)

I can point out some districts on the Democratic map that I’d disagree with. But you can see on the KCMO district map that the Republican map proposes a disservice by matching North Kansas City and Northeast KC in one district, and when they propose pairing Western Independence and Eastern Kansas City in a pretty contrived-looking open district. The STL experts can point out something in both maps, i’m sure. But if you’re going to promise minimal changes, try not making a map that seems to violate the law and that definitely violates the idea of communities of interest.

The fun thing about these maps is that you get to see them essentially go for the entire package of quirks in the hope that some of them wind up on the final map (that will likely be drawn by judges). After all, the final map could give entire districts to Newton County (Dem map), Johnson County (Rep map), Pettis County (Rep map) and all sorts of things which make good logical sense (If the county has the population to support one house district in it’s boundaries, unless there’s a logistical quirk, that county should get get district)

So, on to the maps and the walls of text. Paired in italics. Open in bold.

HD1 (Clark, Knox, Lewis, Schuyler, Scotland counties. Part of Marion (everything outside of Palmyra/Hannibal) and Shelby (putting Shively’s house in the district by several feet) – Redmon (R) and Shively (D)

HD2 (Adair, Putnam, Sullivan) – Wyatt (R)

HD3 (Gentry, Grundy, Harrison, Mercer. Part of Daviess (everything except a SW corner)) – Guernsey (R)

HD4 (Atchison, Holt, Nodaway, Worth) – Thomson (R)

HD5 (Clinton and DeKalb. Parts of Caldwell (Kidder) and Daviess (SE corner) – Klippenstein (R)

HD6 (Ralls. Parts of Marion (Palmyra/Hannibal) and Monroe (Monroe City) – Shumake (R) and Quinn (D)

HD7 (Carroll and Livingston. Parts of Caldwell and Chariton (Brunswick/Keytesville)) – Lair (R)

HD8 (Linn and Macon. Parts of Chariton (Salisbury) and Shelby (Places where Tom Shively doesn’t live) – Open

HD9 (Saline. Parts of Lafayette (Higginsville) and Pettis (NE Corner) – Open (term limits)

HD10 (Pike. Parts of Audrain (Eastern half), Callaway (Kingdom City), and Lincoln (Northern) – Houghton (R)

HD11 (Lincoln. Troy) – Schieffer (D)

HD12 (St. Charles County. St. Peters/Cottleville) – Funderburk (R)

HD13 (St. Charles Co) – Gatschenberger (R)

HD14 (St. Charles Co) – Conway (R)

HD15 (St. Charles) – Open (until Sally Faith’s seat is filled in a special election)

HD16 (St. Charles) – Parkinson (R)

HD17 (St. Charles) – Open (term limits)

HD18 (St. Charles) – Zerr (R)

HD19 (O’Fallon) – Bahr (R)

HD20 (Callaway) – Riddle (R)

HD21 (Parts of Audrain (Western), Boone (Centralia), Monroe (Most of the county)) – Cauthorn (R)

HD22 (Howard and Randolph. Parts of Boone (Harrisburg) – Asbury

HD23 (Western Columbia) – Webber (D)

HD24 (Southern Columbia) – Kelly (D)

HD25 (Eastern Columbia) – Still (D)

HD26 (Western Boone) – Open

HD27 (St. Joseph) – Conway (D)

HD28 (Andrew, Northern Buchanan) – Johnson (R)

HD29 (Southern Buchanan, NW Platte) – Higdon (R)

HD30 (Parkville, KCMO) – Marshall (R)

HD31 (KCMO in Clay County, Part of North KC) – Swearingen (D)

HD32 (Riverside, KCMO) – Schieber (R)

HD33 (Gladstone/Pleasant Valley) – Open (term-limits)

HD34 (Liberty/Claycomo) – Neth (R)

HD35 (Kearney) – Berry (R)

HD36 (Excelsior Springs/Ray County) – Open (term-limits)

HD37 (Smithville, NE Platte) – Open

HD38 (KCMO in Clay County) – Open (term-limits)

HD39 (The Plaza) – Open until special election

HD40 (Northeast KC and North Kansas City) – Rizzo (D) – 38% Hispanic

HD41 (Eastern KC, western Independence, Sugar Creek) – Open (until a special election in HD41?) – 22% Hispanic/16% African-American

HD42 (Eastern KC) – Open (term limits) – 75% African-American

HD43 (Eastern KC) – McCann Beatty (D) – 75% African-American

HD44 (Brookside to US71) – Kander (D) – 31% African-American

HD45 (KCMO) – Holsman (D) – 40% African-American

HD46 (Grandview and KCMO) – McManus (D) – 34% African-American

HD47 (Downtown KC) – Talboy (D) – 54% African-American

HD48 (Lee’s Summit) – Cross (R)

HD49 (Independence, KCMO, Raytown) – McDonald (D) – 15% African-American

HD50 (Raytown, KCMO) – Open – 30% African-American

HD51 (Northeast Independence) – Anders (D)

HD52 (Southern Independence) – Torpey (R)

HD53 (Eastern Independence, Northeast Jackson County, Gran Valley, Oak Grove) – Lasaster (R)

HD54 (Independence, Blue Springs) – Lauer (R)

HD55 (Blue Springs) – Solon (R)

HD56 (Lee’s Summit) – Cierpiot (R)

HD57 (South/Southwest STL) – Colona (D) – 18% African-American

HD58 (North-Central STL) – Hubbard (D) – 62% African-American

HD59 (Lee’s Summit/Raymore) – Grisamore (R)

HD60 (North-Central STL) – Nasheed (D) – 89% African-American

HD61 (North STL) – Carter (D) and May (D) – 94% African-American

HD62 (Stone County and part of Taney) – Phillips (R)

HD63 (Central STL)
– Jones (D) – 44% African-American

HD64 (Western STL, Clayton, University City) – Carlson (D) and Newman (D) – 41% African-American

HD65 (SW STL) – Kratky (D)

HD66 (Webster Groves) – Kirkton (D)

HD67 (SE STL) – Open – 52% African-American

HD68 (Barry County. Part of Shell Knob that’s in Stone County and only accessible from Barry County) – Open (term limits)

HD69 (Bellefontaine Neighbors) – Pierson (D) – 82% African-American

HD70 (Jennings, Ferguson, Berkeley) – Pace (D) – 81% African-American

HD71 (Blackjack, Spanish Lake) – Taylor (D) and Walton Gray (D) – 83% African-American

HD72 (University City, Pagedale) – Ellinger (D) and Smith (D) – 77% African-American

HD73 (University City, Clayton, Richmond Heights, Maplewood) – Open

HD74 (Spanish Lake, North STL County) – Webb (D) – 55% African-American

HD75 (Florissant) – Atkins (D) – 32% African-American

HD76 (Ferguson, Hazelwood, Dellwood, Florissant) – Spreng (D) – 60% African-American

HD77 (St. Ann and St. John) – McGeoghegan (D) – 25% African-American

HD78 (Hazelwood and Bridgeton) – McNeil (D) – 23% African-American

HD79 (Maryland Heights) – Nichols (D)

HD80 (SW St. Charles County) – Open

(current district lines in pink)

HD81 (Parts of St. Charles (Wentzville), and Lincoln (Moscow Mills)) – Open

HD82 (Creve Coeur and Olivette) – Schupp (D)

HD83 (Overland, University City, Olivette) – Open until Special Election

HD84 (Chesterfield, Wildwood) – Gosen (R)

HD85 (SE STL Co. Concord, Mehlville, Green Park) – Brown (R)

HD86 (Chesterfield, Maryland Heights) – McNary (R)

HD87 (Town and County, Ladue, Frontenac, Brentwood) – Diehl (R)

HD88 (Ballwin) – Koenig (R)

HD89 (Eureka, Wildwood) – Jones (R)

HD90 (Jefferson County. Murphy, High Ridge) – McCaherty (R)

HD91 (Jefferson County. DeSoto) – Harris (D)

HD92 (Manchester. Town and County) – Allen (R)

HD93 (Valley Park. Fenton) – Scharnhorst (R)

HD94 (Kirkwood) – Stream (R)

HD95 (Sunset Hills. Fenton) – Leara (R)

HD96 (Affton. Lemay) – Sifton (D)

HD97 (Concord. SE STL Co) – Fuhr (R)

HD98 (Franklin County. Union and St. Clair) – Hinson (R)

HD99 (Montgomery County. Part of Warren) – Korman (R)

HD100 (Oakville) – Haefner (R)

HD101 (Jefferson County. Arnold and Imperial) – Open (term-limits)

HD102 (Jefferson County. Barnhart) – Wieland (R)

HD103 (Jefferson County. Festus and Crystal City) – Open (term-limits)

HD104 (St. Francois (Park Hills/Bonne Terre), Jefferson, and Washington Counties) – Open

HD105 (Franklin County (Pacific) and Jefferson County (Cedar Hill) – Curtman (R)

HD106 (Ste. Genevieve. Parts of Jefferson and Perry (Perryville) Counties) – Fallert (D)

HD107 (St. Francois County) – Linda Black (D)

HD108 (SE STL) – Hummel (D)

HD109 (Parts of Franklin (Washington), St. Charles (SW Corner) and Warren (SE Corner) – Dieckhaus (R)

HD110 (Camden County) – Franklin (R)

HD111 (Western Franklin, SE Corner Gasconade, and Northern Crawford) – Schatz (R)

HD112 (Osage and Maries. Gasconade) – Open (term-limits)

HD113 (Eastern Jefferson City) – Bernskoetter (R)

HD114 (Western Jefferson City) – Barnes (R)

HD115 (Miller and Northern Pulaski) – Open (term-limits)

HD116 (Northern Benton, NW Corner Camden, Morgan County and Southern Pettis) – Brown (R)

HD117 (Cooper and Moniteau, and part of Cole) – Jones (R)

HD118 (Pettis) – Cox (R)

HD119 (Dallas, Hickory, and St. Clair, part of Laclede) – Crawford (R)

HD120 (Henry County. Part of Benton and Johnson) – Largent (R)

HD121 (Central Johnson County. Warrensburg/Knob Noster) – Hoskins (R)

HD122 (Western Lafayette, Northern Johnson, NE Cass) – Open (term-limits)

HD123 (NW Cass) – Molendorp (R)

HD124 (Harrisonville) – Brattin (R)

HD125 (Bates County. Southern Cass and Northern Vernon) – Open

HD126 (Barton County. Southern Vernon, Western Cedar, Northern Jasper) – Kelley (R)

HD127 (Jasper County. Carthage) – Flanigan (R)

HD128 (Jasper County. Webb City and Joplin) – Davis (R)

HD129 (Joplin and NE Newton) – White (R)

HD130 (SW Newton (Neosho) and Western McDonald) – Reiboldt (R)

HD131 (Rest of Newton and Eastern McDonald) – Lant (R)

HD132 (Lawrence County) – Ruzicka

HD133 (Parts of Cedar and Polk Counties) – Entlicher (R)

HD134 (Greene County. Republic) – Long (R)

HD135 (Greene County. SE Greene. Part of Christian County) – Denison (R)

HD136 (Greene County. SW Springfield) – Burlison (R)

HD137 (Greene County. NW Springfield) – Leach (R)

HD138 (Greene County. SE Springfield) – Open (term limits)

HD139 (Greene County. West Springfield. Willard) – Schoeller (R)

HD140 (Greene County. East/NE Springfield) – Hough (R)

HD141 (Christian County. Nixa) – Elmer (R)

HD142 (Christian County. Ozark) – Open

HD143 (Taney County. Branson and Hollister) – Open

HD144 (Wright County. Parts of Texas and Pulaski (Ft. Leonard Wood) Counties) – Dugger (R)

HD145 (Webster County. Part of Laclede County) – Fraker (R)

HD146 (Laclede County, Part of Pulaski County) – Pollock (R)

HD147 (Shannon and Oregon County. Eastern Texas County) – Open

HD148 (Central Pulaski County and SW Phelps County) – Open

HD149 (Northern Phelps County) – Frederick (R)

HD150 (Dent County. Parts of Crawford and Phelps County) – Smith (R)

HD151 (Howell County) – Open (term limits)

HD152 (Dade County. Parts of Greene, Lawrence, and Polk Counties) – Open

HD153 (Eastern Taney County, Douglas, Ozark, and part of Howell County) – Rowland (R)

HD154 (Butler County) – Richardson (R)

HD155 (Iron and Reynolds Counties, Part of Washington County) – Fitzwater (R)

HD156 (Bollinger and Madison Counties. Parts of Cape Girardeau, Scott, and Stoddard Counties) – Keeney (R)

HD157 (Parts of Cape Girardeau and Perry Counties) – Lichtenegger (R)

HD158 (Cape Girardeau) – Wellingford (R)

HD159 (Stoddard County. Part of Scott County) – Open (Term limits)

160 (Parts of Mississippi, New Madrid, and Scott) – Open (Brandom running for Senate)

HD161 (Carter, Ripley, and Wayne Counties. Part of Butler County) – Cookson (R)

HD162 (Pemiscot County. Parts of Mississippi and New Madrid Counties) – Hodges (D)

HD163 (Dunklin County. Parts of Butler and New Madrid Counties) – Hampton (R)

That’s the Republican map. Perhaps I can give the Senate some much needed attention and look at their maps.

But if you’ve looked over the maps, feel free to add thoughts or hopes for the final product.

Missouri State Redistricting a process where 18 people get together, suggest maps, and then the map is drawn by judges. Ok, they’ve accomplished a commission map before in history. But if you’re a betting man, you have to be skeptical of the shot of a 10th vote being found here.

Last week, the Democratic and Republican commissioners for the state House redistricting proposed maps. The maps can be viewed at the OA website. The Republican map (dubbed “minimum changes”) will be reviewed second. The Democratic map will be reviewed in this post.

Partisan election data for both maps is not currently known, but your own knowledge or suspicions can be used to make determinations about the maps provided.

Here is a quick and dirty wall of text about each district. Which Incumbents (who can run in 2012) live in which district. Some data when it’s relevant. And descriptions of what the districts include. Random maps will be provided to highlight certain districts or areas.

Paired incumbent districts are in italics. Open districts are bolded. Some districts are open due to term limits. Some are open due to the pairing of other incumbents.

Overall thoughts on the Democratic map before going into the list: It’s more refined than the Skaggs-Davis map. It seems to have been a competition to pair incumbents in some areas. At the same time, it corrects and prevents certain incumbent-friendly mapping quirks. There are certain district numbering quirks that seem to get worse with this map. But then again, our state highway numbering system involves picking numbers out at random. So it could be worse.

The map pairs 42 incumbents (11 R v. R matches, 5 R v. D matches, 1 D v. D match and 3 R v. R v. R matches), by my count. So this map is clearly aiming to cause a real estate boom amongst legislators.

There are unseemly elements of this map. But as you can see on your own (or will see in a day or so), the Republican “minimal change” map is also a map with some of the same problems. The reality of redistricting is that in order to achieve relatively equal districts, creative lines will be drawn and parties will want their best possible 163 districts.

Some of these districts have no chance of becoming reality. But you gotta put the cards on the table while you can and try to see if they could happen somehow.

On to the list.

HD1 (Parts of Lewis (everything except one square), Marion (Hannibal, part of Palmyra) and Ralls (Saverton)): Redmon (R-Canton) and Shumake (R-Hannibal)

HD2 (all of Clark, Schuyler, and Scotland, parts of Adair (Kirksville)): Open

HD3 (all of Harrison, Mercer, Putnam and Knox, parts of Daviess (part of Pattonsburg)/Grundy (Spickard)/Sullivan (Milan/Green City)/Adair (Novinger)): Wyatt (R-Greencastle) and Guernsey (R-Bethany)

HD4 (Atchison/Holt/Nodaway/Worth, part of Gentry (north of Albany/Stanberry): Thomson (R-Maryville)

HD5 (East St. Charles. West Alton and St. Charles City): Open (May have an incumbent depending on the outcome of the HD15 special election, current HD15 is split between HD5, HD17, and HD19)

HD6 (Parts of Lincoln (Cave), Pike (Eolia), and Warren (Warrenton/Wright City)): Open

HD7 (parts of Lafayette (Lexington/Higginsville), Saline (Marshall), Chariton (Salisbury)): Open (termed-out incumbent)

HD8 (Macon and Shelby. Parts of Lewis (SW corner), Linn (Brookfield/Marcelline) and Marion (West of Palmyra)): Shively (D-Shelbyville)

HD9 (Parts of Monroe (Everything except a SW corner), Ralls (Everything except a NE corner), Marion (Monroe City), Audrain (Vandalia), and Pike (Louisiana/Bowling Green): Quinn (D-Monroe City)

HD10 (DeKalb, parts of Gentry (Albany, King City, Stansberry)/Daviess (Lake Viking)/Andrew (East of Savannah)/Clinton (North of Turney/Gower)/Buchanan (NE Corner)): Klippenstein (R-Maysville)

HD11 (Parts of Lincoln (Ellsberry/Troy)/Pike (Paynesville)): Schieffer (D-Troy)

HD12 (Wentzville. Northwest St. Charles): Open

HD13 (Lake St. Louis, part of Warren): Gatschenberger (R-Lake St. Louis)

HD14 (O’Fallon): Bahr (R-O’Fallon) and Funderburk (R)

HD15 (O’Fallon): Open (termed out incumbent)

HD16 (St. Peters/Cottleville): Open

HD17 (St. Charles): Zerr (R-St. Charles)

HD18 (St. Charles/St. Peters): Open

HD19 (SE St. Charles County): Conway (R) and Parkinson (R)

HD20 (Parts of Audrain (Everything West of Vandalia), Boone (Centralia), Monroe (SW Corner)): Cauthorn (R-Mexico) and Houghton (R-Martinsburg)

HD21 (SW Columbia, Mizzou Campus): Webber (D-Columbia)

HD22 (North Buchanan (all the way to Frederick Ave. in some parts)/Western Andrew (Savannah)): Johnson (R-Country Club)

HD23 (NW Columbia, Rogers St is a border in one part): Open

HD24 (SE Columbia/Southern Boone): Kelly (D-Columbia)

HD25 (NE Columbia): Still (D-Columbia)

HD26 (Howard/Randolph, part of Boone (Harrisburg)): Asbury (R-Higbee)

HD27 (St. Joseph): Conway (D-St. Joseph)

HD28 (Parts of Callaway (South of Fulton)/Osage (East of Westphalia)): Riddle (R)

HD29 (South Buchanan (South St. Joe)/North Platte (Weston/North of Platte City)): Higdon (R-St. Joseph)

HD30 (Platte County, KCMO, Part of Clay): Schieber (R)

HD31 (Southern Clay County, North KC): Swearingen (D)

HD32 (Riverside, parts of Clay County): Open

HD33 (Parkville, Platte City, KCMO): Marshall (R-Parkville)

HD34 (Liberty, KCMO): Open

HD35 (Liberty, Kearney): Neth (R-Liberty) and Berry (R-Kearney)

HD36 (Smithville): Open

HD37 (Downtown KC/Westport): Talboy (D) – 19% AA/15% Hispanic

HD38 (Gladstone, KCMO): Open (pretty sure Silvey is termed out AND running for the State Senate)

HD39 (Lee’s Summit, Grandview, KCMO): Grisamore (R) – 21% AA

HD40 (The Historic Northeast KC/Western Independence): Rizzo (D) – 36% Hispanic

HD41 (North Central KCMO): Open (until a special election?) – 64% AA/18% Hispanic

HD42 (East KC): Open (thanks to Term Limits) – 63% AA

HD43 (East KC, South of Brush Creek): McCann Beatty (D) – 63% AA

HD44 (Brookside): Kander (D) [maybe another incumbent if the winner of the special election to replace Jean Peters-Baker isn’t a one-session placeholder)

HD45 (KCMO, Stateline to 350): Holsman (D-KCMO) and Cross (R-Lee’s Summit) – 36% AA

HD46 (KCMO, Grandview, to 350): McManus (D) – 22% AA

HD47 (Lee’s Summit): Open

HD48 (Central Independence, around MO78): McDonald (D) and Torpey (R)

HD49 (Southern Independence): Open

HD50 (SE KC, Hickman Mills): Open (Term-limits) – 62% AA

HD51 (Northern Independence, Sugar Creek): Anders (D) and Lasater (R)

HD52 (Raytown, KCMO, Lee’s Summit): Open

HD53 (Raytown, KCMO, Lee’s Summit, Blue Springs): Cierpiot (R) and Solon (R)

HD54 (Northeast Jackson, East Clay, West Ray): Open (termed-out incumbent [Nance])

HD55 (Blue Springs/Grain Valley): Lauer (R)

HD56 (Oak Grove, Eastern Jackson County): Open

HD57 (West STL, Wellston): May (D) – 95% AA

HD58 (Caldwell, parts of Ray, Clinton, Daviess, Livingston): Lair (R-Chilicothe)

HD59 (SE STL): Open (termed-out incumbent) – 51% AA

HD60 (Branson and Hollister): Open

HD61 (NE STL and part of STL County): Carter (D) – 94% AA

HD62 (Eastern STL): N
asheed (D) and Hubbard (D) – 93% AA

HD63 (Central STL): Jones (D) – 45% AA

HD64 (Western STL): Carlson (D) – 23% AA

HD65 (SW STL): Kratky (D)

HD66 (STL/STL Co line, SW to Concord): Montecillo (D)

HD67 (South-Central STL): Colona (D) – 22% AA

HD68 (Barry County, part of Stone): Open (term limits)

HD69 (STLCo, Jennings, NE to Spanish Lake): Pierson (D) – 82% AA

HD70 (STLCo, Jennings, NW to Berkeley): Pace (D) – 82%

HD71 (STLCo, Velda City, University City, Pagedale): Smith (D) – 78% AA

HD72 (STLCo, University City, SW to Ladue, Frontenac, and Town and Country): Ellinger (D) and Diehl (R)

HD73 (STLCo, Richmond Heights, SW to Ladue and Kirkwood): Newman (D)

HD74 (STLCo, Old Jamestown?, Florissant outskirts): Webb (D) – 47% AA

HD75 (STLCo, Florissant): Atkins (D) – 20% AA

HD76 (STLCo, Bridgeton/Hazelwood): Spreng (D) – 28% AA

HD77 (STLCo, St. Ann, St. John, Breckenridge Hills, Bel-Ridge): McGeoghehan (D) – 34% AA

HD78 (STLCo, Maryland Heights/Bridgeton/Hazelwood): McNeil (D)

HD79 (Part of Johnson and Lafayette. Warrensburg/Odessa): Open (Termed-out incumbent)

HD80 (STLCo, Ferguson/Black Jack): Taylor (D) – 63% AA

HD81 (STLCo, Spanish Lake, Black Jack): Walton-Gray (D) – 82% AA

HD82 (STLCo, Creve Coeur): Schupp (D)

HD83 (STLCo, Overland/Olivette, Maryland Heights): Nichols (D) – 18% AA

HD84 (STLCo, Manchester/Kirkwood): Open

HD85 (STLCo, STL/STLCo line, Lemay, Oakville, STLCo/JeffCo line): Open

HD86 (STLCo, Chesterfield/Wildwood): Open

HD87 (Parts of Christian, Greene, Webster): Fraker (R)

HD88 (STLCo, Town and Country and Des Peres): Allen (R), McNary (R) and Stream (R)

HD89 (STLCo (Wildwood) and Franklin County (Washington)): Jones (R)

HD90 (NE Jefferson, Murphy): McCaherty (R-Murphy)

HD91 (STLCo, Maplewood SW to Kirkwood): Kirkton (D)

HD92 (Wright County, parts of Douglas/Webster/Laclede): Dugger (R)

HD93 (STLCo, Ballwin south to STLCo/JeffersonCo line): Scharnhorst (R) and Koenig (R)

HD94 (STLCo, Chesterfield, Ballwin, Ellisville): Gosen (R)

HD95 (STLCo, Sunset Hills, Fenton): Leara (R)

HD96 (STLCo, STL/STLco line, Affton, Green Park, Mehlville, Oakville): Sifton (D) and Brown (R)

HD97 (STLCo, Webster Groves and Crestwood): Open

HD98 (Eastern Franklin County): Hinson (R) and Curtman (R)

HD99 (SW St. Charles and SE Warren): Open

HD100 (STLCo, STL/STLCo line, Lemay, Mehlville, Oakville): Haefner (R)

HD101 (Jefferson County, Imperial, Arnold, Barnhart): Wieland (R)

HD102 (Jefferson County, Arnold, SW around MO-21): Open

HD103 (Jefferson County, Herculaneum/Festus): Open

HD104 (Parts of Jefferson, Perry, and Ste. Genevieve Counties. Crystal City/Ste. Genevieve/Perryville): Fallert (D-Ste. Genevieve)

HD105 (NW Jefferson County, Cedar Hill, High Ridge): Open

HD106 (Washington County, part of Crawford and St. Francois counties): Fitzwater (R)

HD107 (St. Francois County, Park Hills, Desloge, Bonne Terre, Farmington): Linda Black (D)

HD108 (SE STL): Hummel (D)

HD109 (Hickory and Dallas Counties. Parts of Laclede, Camden, and Benton Counties): Crawford (R) and Franklin (R)

HD110 (Parts of Jefferson [Hillsboro, De Soto], St. Francois [French Village] and Ste. Genevieve [countryside]): Harris (D)

HD111 (Gasoncade County and NW Franklin County): Dieckhaus (R)

HD112 (Parts of Johnson (Knob Noster), Lafayette (Concordia), Saline (Sweet Springs), Pettis (La Monte), and Benton (Lincoln) Counties): Hoskins (R), Cox (R) and Brown (R)

HD113 (Most of Jefferson City): Barnes (R)

HD114 (Part of Jefferson City, SE Cole County, SW Osage County (Westphalia)): Bernskoetter (R)

HD115 (Parts of Henry (Clinton), Benton (Warsaw), Morgan (Gravois Mills) and Camden (Climax Springs): Largent (R)

HD116 (Most of Miller and Part of Moniteau Counties): Jones (R)

HD117 (Maries County. Parts of Pulaski (Dixon), Phelps (St. James), and Crawford (Cuba/Steelville)): Open (Termed-out incumbent)

HD118 (SW Franklin and NW Crawford): Schatz (R)

HD119 (Cooper County. Parts of Benton, Morgan and Moniteau Counties): Schad (R)

HD120 (Bates County. Parts of Cass (Archie/Drexel), Henry (Windsor), Johnson (Chihowee/Leeton), and Vernon (Metz, Schell City)): Open

HD121 (Eastern Pettis (Sedalia) and SE Saline Counties): Open

HD122 (St. Clair County. Parts of Cedar (El Dorado Springs) and Vernon (Nevada) counties): Open (termed-out incumbent)

HD123 (Cass County. Raymore, Part of Pleasant Hill): Brattin (R)

HD124 (Cass County. Belton, Peculiar): Molendorp (R)

HD125 (Cass County (Harrisonville) and Johnson County (Holden): Open

HD126 (Jasper County. Carthage): Flanigan (R)

HD127 (Jasper County. Joplin): Open

HD128 (Jasper County. Webb City/Joplin): Davis (R)

HD129 (Barton and Dade Counties. Part of Jasper and Lawrence Counties): Kelley (R)

HD130 (Newton County. Neosho): Lant (R), White (R), and Reiboldt (R)

HD131 (McDonald County. Parts of Newton (Seneca, Fairview); Open

HD132 (Montgomery County. Parts of Callaway (Fulton), Lincoln and Warren): Korman (R)

HD133 (Polk County and Parts of Cedar (Stockton): Entlicher (R)

HD134 (Lawrence County): Ruzicka (R)

HD135 (Springfield): Burlison (R)

HD136 (Ozark): Open

HD137 (Springfield): Leach (R) and Hough (R)

HD138 (Springfield): Open (termed out incumbent)

HD139 (Carroll County. Parts of Ray (Richmond), Chariton (Brunswick), Livingston (East of Chillicothe), Linn (West of Brookfield), Grundy (Trenton) and Sullivan (SW Corner): Open

HD140 (Springfield): Denison (R)

HD141 (Nixa): Elmer (R)

HD142 (Parts of Christian, Stone, and Taney Counties): Phillips

HD143 (Ozark County. Parts of Taney and Douglas Counties): Rowland (R)

HD144 (Springfield): Open

HD145 (SW Greene County. Republic): Long (R)

HD146 (Parts of Laclede (Lebanon), Pulaski (Richland), Camden (Montreal), and Texas (Plato) Counties): Open (Termed-out incumbent)

HD147 (Waynesville and Fort Leonard Wood): Open

HD148 (North Greene County. Willard, Strafford): Schoeller (R)

HD149 (Phelps County. Rolla): Frederick (R)

HD150 (Parts of Crawford (Cherryville), Dent (everything except the SE corner), and Texas Counties (Houston)): Smith (R)

HD151 (Parts of Douglas (Eastern), Howell (West Plains), and Texas (Cabool) counties): Open (termed out incumbent)

HD152 (Carter, Iron, Reynolds, and Shannon Counties. Parts of Dent (SE notch, Mark Twain Forest), St. Francois (Iron Mountain Lake), and Wayne (Piedmont) Counties): Open

HD153 (Oregon County. Parts of Howell (Mountain View) and Ripley Counties (Everything West of Fairdealing): Open (term-limits)

HD154 (Parts of Butler (Popular Bluff) and Ripley (Fairdealing)): Cookson (R) and Richardson (R)

HD155 (Parts of Camden (Camdenton, Osage Beach), Morgan (Laurie) and Miller (Lake Ozark) Counties): Open

HD156 (Parts of Cape Girardeau (Jackson) and Scott (Chaffee) counties): Lichtenegger (R)

HD157 (Bollinger County. Parts of Cape Girardeau County and Perry County): Keeney (R)

HD158 (Cape Girardeau and Scott City): Wallingford (R)

HD159 (Parts of Butler (Eastern), Dunklin (Malden outskirts), Stoddard (Dexter), and Wayne (Wappapello) Counties): Hampto
n (R)

HD160 (Parts of Mississippi (NW corner), New Madrid (Northern), Scott (Sikeston), and Stoddard (Eastern) counties): Open (Brandom running for Senate)

HD161 (Madison County. Parts of Butler (North), St. Francois (Doe Run) and Wayne (Most of the county) Counties): Open

HD162 (Parts of Dunklin (Malden) Mississippi (most of the county), New Madrid (most of the county) and Pemiscot (Hayti and all points north) Counties): Hodges (D)

HD163 (Parts of Dunklin (Most of the county)) and Pemiscot (Caruthersville/Hayti Heights): Open (termed out incumbent)

Next-up, the “minimal changes” Republican map. How minimal will the changes be? well, you can trust a phrase used by political people, can’t you?

Sometimes things get complicated.

State Representative Ellen Brandom (r), one of the Missouri General Assembly’s greats when it comes to tobacco legislation, from Sikeston (the northern part of the city, in Scott County) isn’t term limited out in 2012 but her campaign finance reports indicate that she’s a candidate for the 27th Senate District seat:

COMMITTEE: MECID:C051162

FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM

OFFICE SOUGHT: STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 27

Date of Election:8/7/2012

Political Party:REPUBLICAN

The 27th Senate District seat is currently held by Senator Jason Crowell (r) who is term limited out in 2012:

COMMITTEE: MECID:C031110

MISSOURIANS FOR CROWELL

OFFICE SOUGHT: STATEWIDE OFFICE

Date of Election:8/5/2014

Political Party:REPUBLICAN

Statewide office? There is a dark side when it comes to term limits:

Lebisch: Is there a proper blessing… for the Tsar?

Rabbi: A blessing for the Tsar? Of course! May God bless and keep the Tsar… far away from us!

Why do we care? Okay, bad question. Why did we notice? Better question. It’s those 48 hour reports at the Missouri Ethics Commission:

C051162 03/28/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM SEMO Leadership Committee 526 Tanglewood Sikeston MO 63801 3/28/2011 $14,172.00

C051162 03/30/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM Howard Wood 203 NE Main St Bonne Terre MO 63628 Cequel III 3/29/2011 $2,500.00

C051162 03/31/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM Missouri Health Care Association PAC 236 Metro Dr Jefferson City MO 65109 3/31/2011 $1,000.00

C051162 03/31/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM Randol York PO Box 827 Sikeston MO 63801 Retired 3/31/2011 $2,500.00

C051162 04/01/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM Mo Society of Anesthesiologists PO Box 1402 Jefferson City MO 65102 3/31/2011 $2,000.00

C051162 04/06/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM MO Ambulatory Surgery Ctr Assn PAC PO Box 6966 Lees Summit MO 64064 4/6/2011 $1,000.00

C051162 05/01/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM RightCHOICE Managed Care,Inc. PO Box 68086 Cincinnati OH 45206 4/30/2011 $1,000.00

C051162 05/19/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM James Buck 910 N Kingshighway Sikeston MO 63801 SEMO State University 5/19/2011 $1,000.00

C051162 05/19/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM Scott Matthews Jr PO Box 506 Sikeston MO 63801 Dentist 5/19/2011 $1,000.00

C051162 05/23/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM Flaire Ferrell 111 Wickerwood Sikeston MO 63801 Retired 5/22/2011 $1,000.00

C051162 05/24/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM David Strom 80 N Ridge Rd Sikeston MO 63801 Self-employed Real Estate 5/24/2011 $1,000.00

C051162 05/24/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM Raymond Glaus Jr 112 Greenbrier Dr Sikeston MO 63801 Sonny’s Solid Waste Owner 5/24/2011 $1,000.00

C051162 05/24/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM Janice Matthews 1 Cotton Trace St Sikeston MO 63801 Self-employed Investments 5/24/2011 $1,000.00

C051162 05/24/2011 FRIENDS OF ELLEN BRANDOM Fred Schuerenberg 1009 Westview Dr Sikeston MO 63801 Land Owner 5/24/2011 $1,000.00

[emphasis added]

That’s a lot of fundraising.

The complication? Redistricting.

The “Initial Senate District Map” in the current redistricting process places Sikeston (the northern part of the city, in Scott County) in the 18th Senate District.

Tevye: As the good book says, when a poor man eats a chicken, one of them is sick.

Mendel: Where does the book say that?

Tevye: Well, it doesn’t say that exactly, but somewhere there is something about a chicken.

Ham or chicken, it’s still complicated.

Any redistricting is a complex process. Drawing 163 districts is an even more complex process. That is the challenge for the House Redistricting Commission. The Commission of 18 members meet today at Pierson Auditorium at UMKC today to take testimony about the drawing of districts.

Before they got to testimony, Chairman Joe Maxwell noted that the Skaggs-Davis Map (which gets referred to throughout testimony) was a map of Trent Skaggs and Marlene Davis and not of the commission. Maxwell also noted that both 7th district members were unable to attend. Commissioner Nick Myers lost his business in the Joplin Tornado and Commissioner Todd Patterson lost his home in the Joplin Tornado.

As for the testimony, here is a quick summary of the points made by the State Representatives and other residents of the Kansas City area to the commission.

Representative Mike Talboy (House Democratic Floor Leader, Kansas City) spoke about the Skaggs-Davis Map as a good start. He suggested preserving the history of the KCMO districts along with suggesting the 18th and Vine area be in a majority African-American district and that the Westside/Westport/Downtown area remain in one district. He was asked about a Hispanic majority/plurality district in KCMO and noted that it was important and that the predominantly Hispanic areas were in Northeast KC and around Southwest Trafficway in western KC.

Senator Kiki Curls (D-Kansas City) also spoke of the Skaggs-Davis map as a good starting point and was questioned about if the current map was just as good for the Eastern Kansas City area.

Rob Willard, an attorney/Republican committeeman from Platte County spoke of his concerns with the Skaggs-Davis Map, such as the number of all-Platte County districts in that map or any map. He also voiced concern over the South KC/Grandview area on the map and voiced support for sticking to the Constitution and Communities of Interest in the map.

Represenative Myron Neth (R-Liberty) noted that the Skaggs-Davis Map splits Liberty and spoke about how his district was 50/50 and the important of communities of interest.

Representative John Rizzo (D-Kansas City) spoke about keeping Northeast KC together, keeping the City Market in his district, and not wanting to dilute the district too much in the expansion. He noted that his district is an Immigrant district, but if it had to expand, it could go west or south. Commissioner JoAnn Karll asked Rizzo if his father was Henry Rizzo (who Karll served in the House with in the 1990s) and indeed he was. I’m unsure if the “I thought she was going to ask how old I was” / Birth Certificate Joke will make the official record though.

Representative Kevin McManus (D-Kansas City) spoke about getting letters from constituents about the redistricting. He noted parts of thhe letter that spoke about wanting Grandview to be in one district, and noted that putting Redbridge KCMO with Greenwood, MO was not too workable of an idea. He cited the Grandview School District as a starting point for a district in the area.

Represenative Jason Holsman (D-Kansas City) expanded on the McManus testimony, submitted a map for that area of Kansas City, and talked about having the Center School District and most of the Hickman Mills School District in a district post-redistricting.

Shirley Smith, Joan Englesfield, and Kevin Quarlo (Carlow?) went back to back to back about Gladstone and having Gladstone be in one district.

Nola Wood, a Republican candidate in 2010 (and 2011 v. Kiki Curls) talked about moving the 45th to take in the surplus from the 46th.

Representative Gary Cross (R-Lee’s Summit) spoke about working with representatives in other districts on the matter of redistricting to try and achieve some sort of reasonable idea about what to do in that part of the county.

Represenative Gail McCann Beatty (D-Kansas City) mentioned that Raytown was split between multiple districts and how they could be in their own district. Also spoke about trying to get 4200 people for her district and how getting the Center School District on the Skaggs-Davis Map wasn’t exactly ideal.

Kyle Yarber, a Gladstone-area State House candidate, added to the chorus of people not wanting to split up Gladstone. Ann Fowler of South KCMO spoke of keeping the districts intact.

Representative Brent Lasater (R-Independence) spoke of his happiness with the 2001 map and suggested moving surplus from his district to the 51st district.

RJ McGather (McGarther?) of 42nd/Prospect spoke about his concern that KCMO would lose a representative in the redistricting.

Former State Representative and State Senator Bob Johnson (R-Lee’s Summit) had the longest testimony of the morning. Johnson represents a group called “Let Missourians Decide” (no word on if they bought that name from a previous group). Johnson spoke of his concern with the lack of competitive districts, noted that 95 of 163 districts had one candidate win over 2/3rds of the vote. He presented a KC area map that his group put together that was meant to both be competitive and represent communities of interest. He voiced displeasure with the Skaggs-Davis Map in Jackson County and that it wasn’t a good starting point for Eastern Jackson County. He mentioned competitive districts are around 55-45. Then the entire thing kind of dragged a bit when the members of the committee found that the Clay and Platte districts are exclusively based on competitiveness and Johnson noted that another team member worked on those districts. Also a discussion over what the 2008 data entailed for his map and their own data ensued.

Sally Miller, a former Republican candidate in the 44th district, followed that up by suggesting that the 44th lose the Southeastern areas and move north.

Chris Medina and former State Rep. Paul Rojas closed by mentioning they liked the Skaggs-Davis Map in Northeastern KC but they disliked the West Side Kansas City mapping there.

All in all, a productive meeting. Lots of use of the phrases “good starting point” and “communities of interest”. The Republican map is still lurking somewhere in the Missouri River. The Democrats are praising the Skaggs-Davis Map but noting areas that will need to be changed. The commission plans to try and get a lot of stuff online in a digital form by June or July. They also note that maps have to be approved by August 18th.

I left and missed out on the Senate hearing, but when I see a transcript, i’ll go over it and note anything of interest there.

So it’s the Redistricting Summer in Missouri. Feel the excitement.

The process of drawing the districts for the Missouri State House of Representatives is a gathering of 18 people (9 Democrats/9 Republicans) from the 9 Congressional Districts to figure out a way to satisfactorily draw 163 State House Districts.

This introduction will be more about an overall history and the possible number of districts per county.

When it comes to the history of the Missouri House districts before one-man one-vote, every county got a Representative, some got more than others. In 1962 and 1964, Jackson County had 13 districts, St. Louis County had 14 districts, St. Louis City had 15 districts, Jasper/Jefferson/Boone had 2 districts, and Buchanan/Clay/Greene Counties had 3 districts. The other 106 counties had 1 member. Predictably, these unequal districts were struck down by 1965.

Fun note: If Missouri’s House district size were based on Worth County’s population right now, the Missouri House would have 2758.6 members. Presumably they would have the same amount of office space in that scenario.

So, what did the first map look like?

Aw, the simpler times when the deviation between district populations was still relatively high, allowing for a lot of one county/two county/three county districts.

Obviously quite a few incumbents from the old system were paired. Such as Mike Bauer of Harrison County, who defeated incumbent Representatives from Mercer and Schuyler counties in the Republican Primary before defeating an incumbent Democrat from Putnam County in the General Election for the 90th District. Presumably the only time that one man has defeated three incumbent Missouri State Legislators in one election cycle.

Worth noting that they just went with giving Jackson County and St. Louis the first 77 District numbers, while having an almost-logical district number sequence in the rest of the state. Don’t worry, it changes and gets more random later.

Here’s the 1973-1983 Map

This time around, they give Northeast Missouri the top district numbers (a sequence that has remained in place for the last 40 years) and the districts start to cut through more counties to achieve the ideal population size.

The 1983-1993 map did not copy very well to the Missouri Blue Book:

Then for the 1993-2003 map, they attempt to draw the Jackson/St. Louis district lines in a statewide.

The 2003-2013 map is the map that will be referred to the most in creating the 2013-2023 map.

As you can see, the wonders of population gains in some parts of the state lead to out of sequence district numbers. Such as HD62 and HD68 being in Southwest Missouri while every other House District in the 60s is in St. Louis. It seems that with every redistricting, the Missouri House District numbers become more randomly placed like Missouri State Highway designations.

So, who’s gonna get a lot of seats in the 2011 redistricting? There’s a map for that too.

As you can see, most counties in the state don’t have enough population to make up a majority of a House District. There are quite a few which could make up a majority of the people in a district, if drawn like that. 13 Districts have enough population for one district entirely in their county, with three more counties (Webster, Barry, Laclede) having that ability with a high deviation in district populations.

109 counties didn’t have their number of ideal seats change more than 0.5. But amongst the big winners and losers?

Winners: St. Charles County (8.27 to 9.81), Clay County (5.36 to 6.04), and Christian County (1.58 to 2.11).

Losers: Jackson County (19.08 to 18.35), St. Louis City (10.14 to 8.69), and St. Louis County (29.61 to 27.19)

So in St. Louis (County and City), the number of seats will drop from just under 40 to just under 36. Jackson County could wind up with 18 seats completely in the county and one that goes somewhere else. The Suburban areas gain and the potential for more creative line drawing* exists.

(* – Creative Line Drawing is when the district looks bizarre while having no political reason to look so bizarre.)

The ideal district size of 36,742 is only a suggestion. The ideal district size for the 2003-2013 districts was 34,326. But some districts were 1,000 people below that ideal size and some where a 1,000 people above that ideal size. With the realities of precinct sizes and boundaries, the populations may differ within legally acceptable lines.

The task of Missouri House Redistricting will involve a lot more than just creating 163 districts near the ideal size of 36,742 (give or take a few percentage points where necessary). Those realities are going to come out a few more over the summer until the map is finished and prospective candidates are forced to change their cards to reflect the new number of the district they’re campaigning to Represent.

Some things that I am willing to bet happen

a) There’ll still be some out of sequence district numbers (extra points if they just put another STL-area district number in Christian County)

b) There won’t be much crossing of the Missouri River to create a district. As you can see, there never has been much taste for that, outside of Franklin County on one map, and Saline/Howard Counties in the 1990s.

c) There will be paired incumbents. But there’ll also be incumbents coincidentally in districts with termed-out incumbents.

d) Nobody will get everything they want. Not every legislator will like the map. If they do, then the EPA should step in and make sure our tap water hasn’t been spiked.

e) You’ll probably hear the phrase “Missouri Appellate Apportionment Commission” sometime in the process of drawing the districts. Maybe even to the point where six appellate court judges draw the districts if the committee can’t agree.

That’s an introduction, to show you where maps have evolved from and which areas will gain or lose members next year. With the Missouri State Legislature adjourned (thankfully), this may be one of the more interesting political things to go on for a few weeks. At least until candidates start announcing for higher offices.

Not every turncoat Democrat in the Missouri House has an office on the third floor of the Capitol with the Republican leadership, but if a Democrat does have an office there, she might as well tattoo “traitor” on her forearm. Admittedly, you already knew what to think of Jamilah Nasheed and Penny Hubbard for their vote Wednesday to hand the redistricting goodies to Republicans. Traitors both. Thanks to them, Democrats are consigned to having only two of eight Congressional seats–hardly representative of the way Missourians vote.

Nasheed and Hubbard share office 317. They belong in the august company of Rodney Hubbard and Ted Hoskins, who were also on the third floor–and deserved to be.

Republican speaker of the House Steve Tilley, flanked by Nasheed

What doth it profit a woman if she gains the whole world and loses her own soul? But for a third floor office, ladies? Well, they might be getting a lot more for their treachery than the office space, but I wouldn’t know about under the table deals.

Nasheed is claiming that she did it to protect Clay’s seat.

Nasheed, who said some House Democrats threatened to kick her out of their caucus for her vote, said she was not concerned with what the Democratic Party wanted the map to look like, explaining, “I’m black before I’m a Democrat.”

“My concern is the 1st Congressional District and what is good for the 1st Congressional District,” she added.

Right. Like having only two Democrats instead of three in the Missouri delegation to the House is likely to help the people in the 1st Congressional District? She just handed Paul Ryan another vote in his war on poor people, and there are plenty of poor, BLACK people in the 1st.

Don’t try to sell us that bullshit, Nasheed. Just take your thirty coins of silver and shut up.

(Photo courtesy of MoNewsHorizon)

The headlines out of the Census data release include SW Missouri is growing, St. Louis isn’t growing and Kansas City gets to be the largest city in Missouri. But what about the current State House and Senate districts (used for the 2002 through 2010 elections and due to be modified for 2012 through 2020)?

The ideal population for a Missouri Senate district in the next redistricting is around 176145.

Three districts are over 200,000 people: SD2 (St. Charles/Lincoln), SD20 (Counties surrounding Springfield, but not Springfield), and SD8 (Blue Springs/Lee’s Summit).

Three districts are under 150,000 people: SD14 (North St. Louis County), SD9 (Kansas City) and SD4 (St. Louis City).

For those wondering, these districts have around 186,000 people or more right now: SD17 (Clay County), SD29 (Stone, Taney, Lawrence, Ozark, McDonald, Barry Counties), SD31 (Johnson, Cass, Bates, Vernon Counties), SD26 (Franklin, Warren, West County STL), SD16 (Rolla, Pulaski County, Dent County, Gasconade County, assorted other places), and SD19 (Boone and Randolph Counties)

These districts have 166000 or fewer people: SD21 (Lafayette, Saline, Ray, Carroll, Cooper, etc), SD7 (STL County, in-between West and North County), SD10 (Kansas City, shaped like an overhead projector), SD18 (Northeast Missouri), SD13 (North County STL), and SD5 (STL City).

State Senate redistricting splits very few counties (Jefferson, Greene, Clay, STL County, STL City, and Jackson County). Soon people will mess around with the countyswapping needed to get a map that doesn’t violate one-man one vote.

Amongst districts entirely in one county, SD22 (McKenna, termed out in 2014) is almost exactly fine as it is. SD3 (Engler, termed out) needs a few thousand more people. SD33 (Purgason, termed out) needs to shed some population, which would go to SD3 or SD25 (Mayer, termed out). SD27 (Crowell, termed out) also needs some more people. Sensing a trend in the area’s legislative team?

Jackson County is 30,000 below the ideal population to support four state senate districts, so one of the four districts should go into another county. In an ideal world.

As for the State House.. the ideal district will have 36742 people in it. The districts we have in place vary from 72365 people (HD13) to 27412 (HD61). The Math experts reading this can deduce that HD13 could almost be split in 2 and be legal (as of now, it’d need to be split in two with some parts taken from other populated St. Charles County districts).

The House districts with under 30000 people are HD43 (KCMO), HD64 (STL), HD41 (KCMO), HD60 (STL), HD57 (STL), and HD61 (STL). The least populated district not in Jackson County or the city of St. Louis is HD78 (30572 people) in Northwest STL County. HD162 (New Madrid) has 31602 people.

Eight House districts have between 45769 and 58725 people. The biggest of these is HD35 in Clay County. HD19 in Calloway County has almost 50,000 people. HD134 in Greene County has 48531. HD11 (Lincoln County) has over 48,000 as well. HD142 (Christian/Taney Counties) has 47928 people. HD24 (Boone County, Chris Kelly) has 46896 people. HD141 (Christian, Lawrence and Stone Counties) has 46328 people and HD38 (Clay County) had 45769.

61 of 163 districts are above the ideal total of 36742. Keep in mind that these districts were all around 34K when drawn after 2000. Things change. So essentially there’s going to be some creative line drawing to get the suburbs and SW MO under 37K while getting the urban districts up to the totals needed.

The number of districts in KC and STL is probably gonna go down as well. Jackson County can fit around 18 districts into the county, down from the 19 Jackson County districts after 2000. STL City can fit 8 districts completely in the city limits with room to make up the majority of a district with STL County. Right now STL City has 8 whole districts, 3/4ths of a district, and half of a 10th district.

For the sake of comparison, St. Charles County can now fit 9 whole districts with the majority of a 10th, up from having 8 entire districts.

Feel free to dig around the American Factfinder website to figure out more about the results of the 2010 Census.

Missouri will likely lose a House seat according to a new estimate based on 2010 Census data. The loss will significantly affect Missouri’s overall impact on national issues; the state would will lose an electoral college vote, for instance, and each district would will be somewhat larger, permitting less representative granularity. The most immediate impact, however, would will be the shape of Missouri’s House delegation. The process of reapportionment should be especially interesting given that Missouri has a Democratic governor and a Republican controlled legislature, a situation that is likely to persist for awhile at least.

In April, Nathaniel90 at the Swing State Project offered a speculative map showing how Missouri’s political environment, coupled with the loss of a House seat,  might affect reapportionment. I found myself, as a current resident in Rep. Akin’s 2nd district, very interested the first point he made:

The real question for me was which districts to combine. With power balanced between the parties, it was obvious that one Republican and one Democrat had to face off in a “fair fight” district, leading to an obvious solution: a suburban St. Louis seat forcing Todd Akin (R) and Russ Carnahan (D) together. […] the legislature won’t draw anything too friendly for Carnahan’s south-of-the-city base, and that Gov. Nixon would balk at a map too heavy in Akin’s northern suburbs.

Were this to happen, it could give us at least some chance of finally getting rid of the egregious embarrassment that is Todd Akin. It also puts Carnahan’s Democratic seat at risk (assuming that Carnahan holds it this November), but it might be worth it. I am one of the few who believes that if the Missouri Democratic party had been willing to put more energy into Akin’s district over the past few years, he would be a lot more vulnerable right now, even without redistricting. A new competitive district might be just the ticket.

The second biggie that Nathaniel90 struggled with is the outlook for Ike Skelton’s rather strange 4th district:

The other problem in Missouri was what to do with Ike Skelton’s (D) heavily Republican district spanning the rural areas between Kansas City and Columbia. I figured that a bipartisan plan means incumbent protection, and the Democrats know Skelton will be 81 when the 113th Congress convenes and is not far from retirement. I thus drew a swing district stretching from the close-in Kansas City suburbs to college town Columbia that would not only easily reelect Skelton, but provide a future Dem with a decent shot at holding the 4th District.

 

Nathaniel90’s final conclusion about the best of all possible outcomes (note the emphasis on “possible”):

So there would be four safe Republican seats, two safe Democratic seats, and two swing seats (one of them safe for an incumbent Democrat as long as he chooses to run). Believe it or not, this is probably the closest thing to a Dem-friendly map one could get from today’s Missouri legislature.

I don’t have the experience or background with Missouri’s political map that would allow me to comment knowledgeably about the overall state picture. Does anyone think the situation will roll out differently?

 

Good news from USA Today

While Missouri’s population growth is only projected at 7%, Missouri is not projected to lose a House Seat in 2012 at the moment.

8 Districts, 9 Districts. Place your bets on awkward compromise or a federal judge drawing the lines.