Before we dive into Part 4, consider this Part 3 and a half:
Bill Lant (R-Joplin) comments on redistricting and pretty much says he will win in the 159th District instead of facing Bill Reiboldt in the 160th. He also states that “The worst thing about the change is they changed the darned numbers”. First world problems. I’m also gonna assume the claim that nearly a half of current incumbents were “drawn out of their districts” is a case of undefined definitions.
But onto Part 4.
Missouri has 114 counties (and St. Louis City) and 163 House districts. The AAC map left 55 counties entirely in one district, splitting 59 counties at least once. 54 Counties (and St. Louis City) make up the majority of at least one district. 90 Districts are entirely in one county and 63 cross county lines.
So let’s take this opportunity to learn more about the 63 seats crossing county lines. Especially the ones that’ll be open in 2012 or which no county has a majority.
The multi-county seats where no county has a majority or the seat is open include…
HD2 is made up of Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, and Harrison Counties. DeKalb County has the most people with 12892 (34.8% of residents). Harrison is 2nd with 24%, Daviess has 23% and Gentry has 18%. Currently, Casey Guernsey and Glen Klippenstein are drawn together in the 2nd. Klippenstein said “So does an old oak tree get in the way of an up-and-coming sapling? That’s the decision basically I’m faced with” before noting he hadn’t made a decision on the matter. Although that line along with his mention of the costs of an election leads one to suspect he will step aside for Guernsey.
HD4 is made up Adair, Clark, Knox, Lewis, Schuyler, and Scotland Counties. Lewis County is the largest county in the district with 10211 people (28.9%). The rest: Clark 20.2%, Scotland 13.7%, Adair 12.9%, Schuyler 12.55%, and Knox 11.7%. Craig Redmon represents most of this area in the current HD1.
HD6 is made up of Linn, Macon, and Randolph Counties. Randolph County is the largest county with 18590 (50.35%) residents. Macon has 42.16% of residents and Linn had 7.49% of residents. District 22 incumbent Randy Asbury is running in this district (I wrote the HD6 entry before I found this out). The district is 56/44 Republican on the 2002/2010 average and 54/46 Republican on the 2008 average.
HD7 is made up Grundy, Linn, and Livingston Counties. Livingston County is the largest county with 15195 people (42.9%). Grundy has 28.9% of the district residents and Linn has 28.2% of district residents. The district’s incumbent in 2012 will be Mike Lair (R-Chillicothe). Although the only part of the district Lair is currently representing is in Livingston County.
HD8 is an open seat made up of Caldwell, Clay, Clinton, and Ray Counties. Clinton County has 20743 residents (56% of the district total). Caldwell has 25.6%, Ray has 9.2%, and Clay has 8.8%. The district is 55/45 Republican on the 2002/2010 average and 52.5/47.5 Republican on the 2008 average.
HD12 is an open seat made up of Clay and Platte Counties, going from Platte City to Kearney. 28411 (74.55%) of voters are from Clay County with the remaining 25.45% from Platte. This seat is technically open due to term limits (Ryan Silvey’s House is in the district, but most of the district is currently in the 30th (represented by Nick Marshall) or 35th districts (represented by TJ Berry). The District is 56/44 Republican (2002/2010 average) and 55/45 Republican (2008 average).
HD33 is an open seat made up of Cass, Jackson, and Lafayette counties. This district goes from south of Grain Valley and Oak Grove, down to Pleasant Hill and Harrisonville. 22610 (63.5%) are residents of Cass County and 36.2% are residents of Jackson County. Lafayette County brings 105 people (0.3%) to the district. No word on if any candidate will be bored enough to try meeting every Lafayette County voter in the district. The district is 56/44 Republican (2002/2010) and 53/47 Republican (2008).
HD39 is an open seat made up of Carroll, Chariton, and Ray counties. The majority of district residents live in Ray County (20108 people, 57%). The rest live in Carroll County (26%) or Chariton County (17%). The district is 52/48 Republican (2002/2010) and 50.4/49.6 Democratic (2008). Making it a must-watch open seat race at this moment.
HD44 is an open seat made up of Boone and Randolph Counties. 97.77% of district residents live in Northeastern Boone County with the rest being the 801 residents around Clark, Missouri in Randolph County. Former State Senator and State Representative Ken Jacob is looking at a run in the 44th. The district is 51/49 Republican (2002/2010) and 53/47 Democratic (2008).
HD47 is an open seat made up of Boone, Cooper, Howard, and Randolph Counties. The most populous county in the district is Boone County (28154 people, 79.55%). Randolph County brings 14% of the district population. Howard has 4.7% and Cooper has 1.6%. Former Boone County Presiding Commissioner Don Stamper and Former State Rep. Nancy Copenhaver are considering running here. The last two links are the same, the bigger story is the possibility of Chris Kelly running in HD45 if Mary Still runs for the Senate v. Kurt Schaefer. If Still doesn’t run, then Kelly may run in this district instead. So essentially a Boone County Shuffle is in progress right now. The 47th is 50.2/49.8 Republican (2002/2010) and 54/46 Democratic (2008).
HD48 is made up of Chariton, Cooper, Howard, Pettis, Randolph, and Saline Counties. Cooper County brings 43.6% (15448) of the district residents. The rest: Howard 24%, Saline 14%, Pettis 10%, Chariton 5% and Randolph 3%. The tiny Randolph section included Randy Asbury’s house, hence why he went to HD6 instead. So it should be a fun little battle to see if someone from Boonville returns to the Missouri House for the first time in awhile. The district is 50.2/49.8 Democratic (2002/2010) and 54/46 Republican (2008).
HD51 or HD54 is an open seat either made of Johnson/Pettis/Saline (HD51) or Johnson/Pettis (HD54) counties. One of these districts will get Denny Hoskins and the other will be open. I didn’t get this far in life by assuming things. But I would place my nonexistent money on Hoskins running in the 54th. The 51st’s largest county is Saline County (18449 people, 52%), with 37% in Johnson and 11% in Pettis. The 54th’s largest county is Johnson (31223 people, 87%). The 51st is 58.5/41.5 Democratic (2002/2010) and 56/44 Democratic (2008). The 54th is 53/47 Republican (2002/2010) and 50.2/49.8 Democratic (2008).
HD53 is an open seat made up of Jackson, Johnson, and Lafayette Counties. The largest County is Lafayette (33272, 93%) while just under 3.5% are in Jackson and Johnson. The seat is 52/48 Democratic (2002/2010) and 53/47 Democratic (2008) and should be hotly contested.
HD58 is an open seat made up of Miller, Moniteau, and Morgan Counties. Morgan has the most residents (20565, 58%) with 25% in Moniteau and 17% in Miller. The rest is 61/39 Republican (2002/2010) and 59/41 Republican (2008)
HD62 is an open seat made up of Cole, Crawford, Gasconade, Maries, Miller, Osage, and Phelps Counties. Maries County has the most residents (9176, 25.6). The rest: Gasconade 25%, Osage 24%, Phelps 13%, Cole 5%, Miller 5%, Crawford 2%. A long long time ago in 1994, part of this district elected a Democrat (Joe Clay Crum of Vienna, MO) to an open seat (before replacing him in 1996 with a Republic
an). That was awhile ago. The district is 61/39 Republican (2002/2010) and 59/41 Republican (2008). If we don’t get at least a quality primary out of this district, can we get a refund?
HD63 is an open seat made up of St. Charles and Warren Counties. 76.8% of residents (29298) live in St. Charles with the rest in Warren. The district is 59/41 Republican (2002/2010) and 53/47 Republican (2008). A Wentzville to Wright City district experimented with swinging towards Democrats at least once.
HD64 is an open seat made up of Lincoln and St. Charles Counties. 63% of residents (23893) live in St. Charles with the other 37% in Lincoln. The district is 54/46 Republican (2002/2010) and 51/49 Republican (2008)
HD70 is an open seat made up of St. Charles and St. Louis Counties. 80% (28746) are in St. Louis. The district is 50.3/49.7 Republican (2002/2010) and 55/45 Democratic (2008)
HD83 is an open seat made up of St. Louis City and St. Louis County. 70% (25804) are in STL County with the other 30% in the City. The district is around Brentwood/Maplewood in STL County. It’s a 65/35 Democratic (2002/2010) and 70/30 Democratic (2008) District.
HD93 is an open seat made up of St. Louis City and St. Louis County. 81% (29800) are in STL County with the other 19% in STL City. The district is located around Lemay and is 62/38 (2002/2010) and 65/35 Democratic.
HD116 is made up of Perry, St. Francois, and Ste. Genevieve Counties. 42.6% (15618) of residents live in Ste. Genevieve with 40.5% in St. Francois and 17% in Perry. Joe Fallert (D-Ste. Genevieve) is the incumbent representing this district.
HD120 is an open seat made up of Crawford and Phelps Counties. 24067 residents (66%) are in Crawford County with the other 34% in Phelps County. The district is 59/41 (2002/2010) and 56/44 (2008) Republican.
HD124 is an open seat made up of Camden and Miller Counties. 22175 (60%) Residents are from Camden County with the other 40% from Miller County.
HD125 is an open seat made up of Benton, Cedar, Hickory, and St. Clair Counties. A plurality of residents live in Benton County (10807, 29%). With 26.6% in St. Clair County, 26% in Hickory County, and 18% in Cedar County. The District may wind up with an incumbent, remember that Wanda Brown is paired in the 57th district with Scott Largent. The district is 57/43 (2002/2010) and 55/45 (2008) Republican.
HD126 is an open seat made up of Bates and Vernon Counties. 21159 (57.7%) live in Vernon County wiith the remaining 42% in Bates County. The district is 54/46 (2002/2010) and 51/49 (2008) Republican.
HD127 is made up of Barton, Cedar, Dade, and Jasper Counties. A plurality of residents live in Jasper County (14828, 40.5%) with 34% in Barton, 22% in Dade, and 4% in Cedar. Mike Kelley (R-Lamar) represents this area. It went 72/28 (2002/2010) and 68/32 (2008) Republican.
HD142 is an open seat made up of Howell, Phelps, Pulaski, and Texas Counties. A majority of residents live in Texas County (26008, 70%) with 13% in Pulaski, 11% in Howell, and 6% in Phelps. You wouldn’t know this from seeing election results from this area in the last 7 years, but the seat was held by a Democrat until 2005. But nowadays, the seat is 61/39 (2002/2010) and 63/37 (2008) Republican.
HD143 is made up of Dent, Oregon, Reynolds, and Shannon Counties. The plurality of District residents live in Dent County (15657, 43.7%) with 30% in Oregon County, 24% in Shannon County, and 2% in Reynolds County. The district is represented by Jason Smith and is 59/41 (2002/2010) and 58/42 (2008) Republican.
HD144 is an open seat (for now) made up of Iron, Reynolds, Washington, and Wayne Counties. The plurality of district residents live in Iron County (10630, 30%) with 28% in Wayne County, 26% in Washington County and 16% in Reynolds County. I’d guess Paul Fitzwater (R-Potosi) will run in this seat. The district went 52/48 Republican (2002/2010) and 52/48 Democratic (2008).
HD145 is made up of Bollinger, Madison, and Perry Counties. A plurality of district residents live in Perry County (12765, 34.2%) with 33.1% in Bollinger and 32.7% in Madison. The incumbent in this area is Shelley Keeney (R-Marble Hill). The district went 65/35 (2002/2010) and 62/38 (2008) Republican.
HD148 is an open seat made up of Mississippi and Scott Counties. 26447 residents (73%) live in Scott County with 27% in Mississippi County. This seat will likely be opened up when Steve Hodges makes his run in the 149th district double-official (He only has “almost 100 percent surety” of running in the 149th now). This district is 62/38 (2002/2010) and 60/40 Republican.
HD150 is an open seat (for now) made up of Dunklin and Pemiscot Counties. Dunklin County has more residents (24366, 67%). There is a strong likelyhood that Kent Hampton (R-Malden) runs here instead of HD152. The district is 56/44 (2002/2010) and 52/48 (2008) Democratic.
HD151 is an open seat made up of Scott and Stoddard Counties. Stoddard County has more people (29968, 83%). This district is 64/36 (2002/2010) and 63/37 (2008) Republican.
HD153 is a seat made up of Butler, Carter, Ripley, and Wayne Counties. Ripley County makes up a plurality of the district’s population (14100, 38.1%). 36% live in Butler County, 17% in Carter County, and 9% in Wayne County. The district’s incumbent is Steve Cookson (R-Fairdealing). Cookson will be one of at least one members of the House to keep the same district number. There might be a second member who keeps the same house district somewhere in the St. Louis area. The district is 65.5/34.5 (2002/2010) and 66/34 (2008) Republican.
HD155 is a seat made up of Douglas, Ozark, and Taney Counties. Douglas County has a plurality of District residents (13684, 37%) with 36% in Taney County and 26% in Ozark County. The district’s incumbent is Lyle Rowland and the district is 69/31 (2002/2010) and 65/35 (2008) Republican.
HD158 is an open seat made up of Barry, Lawrence, and Stone Counties. Barry County residents comprise 95.6% of the district (35597 of 37210 people). With 3.5% in Lawrence and 0.8% in Stone Counties. The seat is opened by term limits and is 70/30 Republican (2002/2010 and 2008)
HD162 is an open seat made of Jasper County and 132 residents of Newton County. Yes, 99.6% of district residents are from Jasper County. The closest paired incumbent is Charlie Davis who could run here instead of the 163rd. This seat is 76/24 (2002/2010) and 70/30 (2008) Republican.
So, when it comes to the splitting of counties. Several Counties could have had a majority of residents in a district if they weren’t divided. Those counties are Benton County (19 thousand, split two ways, most influential in HD125 with 29%), Miller County (24748 people, split 4 ways, highest share was 40% in HD124), Perry County (almost 19 thousand, split two ways, most influential in HD145), Ste. Genevieve (18145 people, most influential in HD116), and Washington County (25195 people, most influential in HD118).
But in most cases, even with the random division of counties (Johnson County, Randolph County), these counties have a majority of residents in at least one district. So it all works out in the end.
So this wraps up another edition of Missouri’s redistricting, and the various bits of information about the new districts and where the incumbents are eyeing a move to help their chances in 2012.