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What’s a republican incumbent to do? The Appellate Apportionment Commission cut Representative Denny Hoskin’s (r) base out from under him.

The map of the new 51st Legislative District, including the eastern half of Warrensburg, part of Pettis County, and the city of Marshall in Saline County – from the Appellate Apportionment Commission.

Denny Hoskins (r) lives approximately two and a half miles from the far southwest corner of the new 51st Legislative District. A district which, at close to fifty miles from corner to corner, includes a good chunk of Saline County and the city of Marshall in Representative Joe Aull’s (D) old district. Representative Aull (D) cannot run again due to term limits.

Knob Noster, in eastern Johnson County and a significant contributor to Hoskin’s margin in 2008 (a narrow victory with a recount), is now lumped in with Sedalia in the new 52nd Legislative District. On the other side, Warrensburg is cut in half, with the University of Central Missouri (and those presidential election year student voters in the dorms) in the new 54th Legislative District.

Let’s take look at that new 51st Legislative District:

Appellate Apportionment Commission

House Redistricting Plan

Election Returns Data [pdf]

2002 through 2010 Merged, 2008 and 2010

November 30, 2011

District 51

% Democratic 02 to 10 58.5%

% Republican 02 to 10 41.5%

% Democratic 2008 55.7%

% Republican 2008 44.3%

% Democratic 2010 51.1%

% Republican 2010 48.9%

Whoa. A 58.5% Democratic performing district, with a 51.1% performance in 2010 when Democrats didn’t bother voting? 2012 won’t be 2010.

And to further demonstrate that the Appellate Apportionment Commission has a sick sense of humor and is well attuned to karma, the Missouri Valley Community Action Agency is located in Marshall. Uh, oh.

From September 2010:

Rep. Denny Hoskins (r) and the Film Festival: that was then, this is now – part 2 (September 28, 2010)

The saga of a small town film festival, a desperate republican politician, teabaggers and the stimulus continues.

Remember this, from Representative Denny Hoskins’ (r-noun, verb, CPA) September 20, 2010 Capitol Report?:

…My own questions were based on those I received from constituents concerning the film festival.  As you can see, I did not request funding be withheld or rescinded.  I simply asked how people who need assistance would be helped by the film festival.  Since the film festival was held, I have received even more questions from constituents.  The idea of a film festival or similar event to shine a spotlight on the Warrensburg community is not in itself a bad idea.  How to pay for this event is what concerns me…

[emphasis added]

In today’s Warrensburg Daily Star-Journal, front page, above the fold:

9/28/2010 1:44:00 PM

Spotlight still shines on film fest [broken link]

Jack Miles

Editor

….Rep. Denny Hoskins took partial credit for the withdrawal of funds in a Sept. 10 release labeled, “Rep. Denny Hoskins helps recover Social Services funding inappropriately used….”

Apparently it’s really convenient to immediately claim credit when teabaggers have been complaining and it’s also really convenient to walk it all back when more rational constituents wonder what the big to do was all about….

And, according to RBH (via e-mail), the population breakdown in the new 51st Legislative District is:

HD51 population split by county

Johnson: 13156

Pettis: 3834

Saline: 18449

The results in the 26th Legislative District (Marshall and Saline County) in 2010?:

Official Election Returns

State of Missouri General Election  – November 2, 2010 General Election

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

As announced by the Board of State Canvassers

on Tuesday, November 30, 2010

State Representative – District 26 – Summary

Precincts Reporting 28 of 28

 Aull, Joe DEM 9,271 100.0%

Total Votes   9,271

State Representative – District 26 – County

Aull, Joe   DEM

 LAFAYETTE 3,945

 SALINE 5,326

That’s right, no republican bothered to run in 2010, a republican teabagger year.

And 2008?:

Official Election Returns

State of Missouri General Election  – 2008 General Election

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

As announced by the Board of State Canvassers

on Tuesday, December 02, 2008

State Representative – District 26 – Summary

Precincts Reporting 30 of 30

 Aull, Joe DEM 13,211 100.0%

Total Votes   13,211

State Representative – District 26 – County

Aull, Joe   DEM

 LAFAYETTE 5,647

 SALINE 7,564

Again. It’s the same story in 2006.

In 2004:

Official Election Returns

State of Missouri General Election

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

As announced by the Board of State Canvassers

on Wednesday, December 01, 2004

State Representative – District 26 – County

[….]

SALINE

Aull, Joe DEM 5,989

Begley, Kevin  REP 2,539

That’s a huge margin.

This doesn’t look very good for Representative Denny Hoskins (r). There may be an out:

Missouri Constitution

Article III

LEGISLATIVE DEPARTMENT

Section 4

Qualifications of representatives.

Section 4. Each representative shall be twenty-four years of age, and next before the day of his election shall have been a qualified voter for two years and a resident of the county or district which he is chosen to represent for one year, if such county or district shall have been so long established, and if not, then of the county or district from which the same shall have been taken.

Source: Const. of 1875, Art. IV, § 4.

[….]

Since the Appellate Apportionment Commission came up with the new districts less than a year before the 2012 election, does “…if such county or district shall have been so long established, and if not, then of the county or district from which the same shall have been taken….” mean that Denny Hoskins can run in the 54th Legislative District by moving to the west side of Warrensburg, or in the 52nd Legislative District by moving to Knob Noster? Does he even need to move for 2012? Just asking.

And if Denny Hoskins (r) decides to run in the 51st Legislative District does anyone think the HRCC will run robocalls on his behalf? Do republicans have all the money they need?