“…Too small to be a republic, too large to be an insane asylum…”

Long ago at Kung Fu Monkey:

Friday, October 07, 2005
Lunch Discussions #145: The Crazification Factor

….John: Hey, Bush is now at 37% approval. I feel much less like Kevin McCarthy screaming in traffic. But I wonder what his base is —

Tyrone: 27%.

John: … you said that immmediately, and with some authority.

Tyrone: Obama vs. Alan Keyes. Keyes was from out of state, so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out racism; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him. They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That’s crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% Crazification Factor in any population.

John: Objectively crazy or crazy vis-a-vis my own inertial reference frame for rational behaviour? I mean, are you creating the Theory of Special Crazification or General Crazification?

Tyrone: Hadn’t thought about it. Let’s split the difference. Half just have worldviews which lead them to disagree with what you consider rationality even though they arrive at their positions through rational means, and the other half are the core of the Crazification — either genuinely crazy; or so woefully misinformed about how the world works, the bases for their decision making is so flawed they may as well be crazy.

John: You realize this leads to there being over 30 million crazy people in the US?

Tyrone: Does that seem wrong?

John: … a bit low, actually….

This, via Public Policy Polling:

December 18, 2015
Trump Lead Grows Nationally; 41% of His Voters Want to Bomb Country From Aladdin; Clinton Maintains Big Lead

….To put some of these findings about real modern day issues and Trump voters in context, 41% of his voters think Japanese internment was a good thing, to 37% who don’t. And 41% of his supporters would favor bombing Agrabah to only 9% who are opposed to doing that. Agrabah is the country from Aladdin. Overall 30% of Republican primary voters say they support bombing it to 13% who are opposed. We asked the same question of Democrats, and 36% of them opposed bombing Agrabah to 19% in support….

I haven’t seen the movie. Does that make me an undecided on Agrabah?

There’s more [pdf]:

[….]

Public Policy Polling surveyed 532 usual Republican primary voters and 525 usual Democratic primary voters on December 16th and 17th. The margin of error for both parties is +/-4.3%. 80% of participants responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet.

[….]

[Republican primary voters]

Q32 Would you support or oppose banning Muslims from entering the United States?
Support banning Muslims from entering the United States 54%
Oppose banning Muslims from entering the United States 25%
Not sure 21%

Q33 Do you believe that thousands of Arabs in New Jersey cheered when the World Trade Center collapsed on 9/11 or not?
Believe thousands of Arabs in New Jersey cheered when the World Trade Center collapsed on 9/11 36%
Do not believe thousands of Arabs in New Jersey cheered when the World Trade Center collapsed on 9/11 35%
Not sure 29%

Q34 Would you support or oppose shutting down mosques in the United States?
Support shutting down mosques in the United States 28%
Oppose shutting down mosques in the United States 47%
Not sure 26%

Q35 Would you support or oppose creating a national database of Muslims in the United States?
Support a national database of Muslims in the United States 46%
Oppose a national database of Muslims in the United States 37%
Not sure 17%

Q36 Do you think the religion of Islam should be legal or illegal in the United States?
Islam should be legal in the United States 53%
Islam should be illegal in the United States 26%
Not sure 21%

Q37 Looking back, do you support or oppose the policy of Japanese Internment during World War II?
Support the policy of Japanese Internment 28%
Oppose the policy of Japanese Internment 49%
Not sure 23%

Q38 Would you support or oppose bombing Agrabah?
Support bombing Agrabah 30%
Oppose bombing Agrabah 13%
Not sure 57%

[….]

Yeah, those numbers are probably a bit low, actually.

Here’s the raw numbers from SurveyUSA, 10/28-11/3/2012, for KSDK-TV, KSHB-TV, KSPR-TV and KYTV-TV, 589 likely voters:

If the election for President were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

Mitt Romney (R) 50%

Barack Obama (D) 43%

Other 4%

Undecided 3%

Missouri will also elect a Governor. If the election for Governor were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Dave Spence? Democrat Jay Nixon? Or Libertarian Jim Higgins?

Dave Spence (R) 39%

Jay Nixon (D) 48%

Jim Higgins (L) 5%

Undecided 8%

Missouri will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for US Senate were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Todd Akin? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Or Libertarian Jonathan Dine?

Todd Akin (R) 36%

Claire McCaskill (D) 51%

Jonathan Dine (L) 8%

Undecided 5%

So let’s go into the details

The first detail worth noting is that on a survey with the sample of 38% Republicans and 31% Democrats, Claire McCaskill leads by 15 points. Yes, that is possible.

SurveyUSA finds McCaskill leading by 24% (55-31) with Independents. She wins 67% of Moderates and 20% of Conservatives (81% of the electorate). She wins 47% of landlines and 61% of non-landlines. SurveyUSA uses a system where “Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop or other electronic device”.

That landline number is 47-40 Claire. That’s important, compared to the landline-only Public Policy Polling results, where Claire leads 48-44. While the whole cellphone/landline debate hasn’t exactly produced any real consensus about the impact of being landline-only or being landline/cellphone/others. The SurveyUSA numbers move closer to the PPP numbers when you compare their numbers on the exact method uses to survey voters.

(for reference: SurveyUSA landline numbers for President were 55/40 Romney and Nixon 47/Spence 45)

Another difference between SurveyUSA and Public Policy is the partisan composition of their universes.

SurveyUSAs sample: 38R/31D/29I (as noted)

PPP’s (.pdf) sample: 36R/33D/32I

So Claire’s numbers are better on a +7R SurveyUSA than a +3R PPP? Yes, that’s possible.

Public Policy says that Claire and Akin are tied with Independents and that Akin wins 79% of Republicans, instead of the 67% that SurveyUSA put in the Akin column.

If you get wild and creative, you could combine the Public Policy sample, and SurveyUSA party numbers, then you get the following numbers:

President: Romney 48, Obama 46

Senator: Claire 54, Akin 35

Governor: Nixon 50, Spence 39

If you combine the SurveyUSA sample and Public Policy numbers, you get:

President: Romney 54, Obama 43

Senator: Claire 45, Akin 45

Governor: Nixon 50, Spence 46

So that sets up a fun little universe of possibilities if you mix your drinks. (Although the Romney v. Obama numbers from Mason-Dixon were the same as Blunt/Carnahan numbers (54/41). But that’s Mason-Dixon.)

If Claire McCaskill finishes ahead of Jay Nixon, the SurveyUSA method is going to be vindicated and/or we will have wound up in a world we didn’t expect to be in back on August 7th.

If she doesn’t do that well, then the universe continues undisturbed. Because it’s not like the varying success of non-landline methods has stopped Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov, and other online-friendly pollsters. Sometimes pollsters like SurveyUSA get a direct hit (McCain 48, Obama 48). Sometimes they miss slightly (Claire 51, Talent 42). Polling is sort of like a science.

The Presidential race in Missouri is pretty much two campaigns who only run ads in the parts of Missouri whose TV stations cover Iowa. But in all likelyhood, the better Obama does, the better the rest of the Democrats do in the election and the Missouri Democratic ticket probably runs slightly ahead of Obama.

In 2012, We live in a very surreal state. And in a few days, we’ll begin the process of forgetting Todd Akin, Dave Spence and Mitt Romney.

The latest from Public Policy Polling says: Claire 45, Akin 44

So, the changes from last week:

Akin’s support with Rs up from 71% to 78%, Akin’s support with Ds up from 8% to 15%, Akin’s support with Independents down from 45% to 38%.

McCaskill’s overall approval down 1%, down 7% with Dems, down 5% with Reps and up 2% with Independents.

Yes, this doesn’t add up, because this poll was 33D/35R/32I, up from 30D/39R/32I. Nice to see that the likely voter universe has changed a bit in the last week. (Their likely voter model may still hang up on you if you didn’t vote in 2010)

But in the spirit of fairness, I hope for a poll next week conducted over days 1 and 2 of the DNC.

Full results

August 20th flash poll results in parentheses

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve 39% (42%)

Disapprove 55% (55%)

Not sure 5% (3%)

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Favorable 51% (48%)

Unfavorable 43% (45%)

Not sure 6% (6%)

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama 41% (42%)

Mitt Romney 53% (52%)

Undecided 6% (7%)

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?

Approve 40% (41%)

Disapprove 55% (53%)

Not sure 5% (5%)

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Todd Akin?

Favorable 33% (24%)

Unfavorable 56% (58%)

Not sure 11% (18%)

Q6 The candidates for Senate this fall are Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Todd Akin. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Claire McCaskill 45% (43%)

Todd Akin 44% (44%)

Undecided 11% (13%)

Q7 Do you think Todd Akin should withdraw from the US Senate race, or not?

He should withdraw 37%

He should not 54%

Not sure 9%

Q8 Do you accept Todd Akin’s apology for the comments he made last week, or not?

Accept his apology 53%

Do not 40%

Not sure 7%

Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain 49% (49%)

Barack Obama 44% (44%)

Someone else/Don’t remember 7% (7%)

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat

conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal 8% (9%)

Somewhat liberal 12% (16%)

Moderate 33% (27%)

Somewhat conservative 29% (29%)

Very conservative 19% (19%)

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman 55% (53%)

Man 45% (47%)

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat 33% (30%)

Republican 35% (39%)

Independent/Other 32% (32%)

Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American, press 2. If other, press 3.

White 82% (74%)

African-American 10% (-)

Other 8% (26%)

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are

older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29: 18% (12%)

30 to 45: 25% (22%)

46 to 65: 37% (46%)

Older than 65: 20% (20%)

Senator Claire McCaskill demonstrates complete disdain for the 10 point lead that Rasmussen is trying to foist off on her:

@clairecmc

Rasmussen poll made me laugh out loud. If anyone believes that, I just turned 29. Sneaky stuff.

I usually take Rasmussen with a pinch of salt as well, but one can’t help wondering just why McCaskill’s so vehement about their results – especially since their bias seems to be running the wrong way. Remember the day. I can almost guarantee you it’ll be a cold day in July when you hear another politician trying to diss a poll that gives him/her a ten point lead.

Of course, we’ve also got a poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP), taken directly after the Akin flap, that shows no change from a month ago – Akin in the lead by one point.  This poll, however, excited some scepticism based on the sampling technique. Jim Geraghty of the National Review Online suggested that its sampling skewed toward Republicans. Of course, in this case, PPP would be showing a bias that contradicts the common perception of its sympathies.

And don’t forget, though, there’s noise that Akin is basing his decision to stay in the race, at least to some extent, on an internal poll that found a breakdown similar to that of PPP.

The topline numbers

Akin 44, McCaskill 43

The fav/unfav for Akin is 24% favorable and 58% unfavorable. Compared to 41% job approval for McCaskill and 53% disapproval.

Does a poll of 500 people taken over 3 hours of a Monday Night mean much more than a Leroy Neiman painting?

We’ll see. For one thing, Public Policy didn’t poll an Akin/McCaskill matchup for the last 3 months before tonight. So we don’t know if the universe was like SurveyUSA’s universe (Akin +10) or Rasmussen’s (Akin +3).

So let’s look at the bits and pieces

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?

Approve 41%

Disapprove 53%

Not sure 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Todd Akin?

Favorable 24%

Unfavorable 58%

Not sure 18%

Q3 The candidates for Senate this fall are Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Todd Akin. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Claire McCaskill 43%

Todd Akin 44%

Undecided 13%

Q4 Do you think Todd Akin’s recent comments over the weekend about rape were appropriate or inappropriate, or are you not familiar with what Akin said about rape?

Appropriate 9%

Inappropriate 75%

Not familiar with Akin’s comments 16%

Q5 This past weekend, Todd Akin said that abortion should be illegal even in the case of rape, because, “If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down.” Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with Akin’s comments?

Strongly agree 6%

Somewhat agree 12%

Somewhat disagree 14%

Strongly disagree 65%

Not sure 4%

Q6 Generally speaking, do you identify as prochoice or pro-life on the issue of abortion?

Pro-choice 40%

Pro-life 52%

Not sure 7%

Q7 Which of the following statements comes closest to your position on abortion: it should be legal in all cases; it should generally be  illegal with exception for rape, incest, or protection of the mother’s life; or should it be completely illegal?

Legal in all cases 33%

Illegal except for rape, incest, or the mother’s life 47%

Completely illegal 14%

Not sure 5%

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain 49%

Barack Obama 44%

Someone else/Don’t remember 7%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal 9%

Somewhat liberal 16%

Moderate 27%

Somewhat conservative 29%

Very conservative 19%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman 53%

Man 47%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat 30%

Republican 39%

Independent/Other 32%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.

White 74%

Other 26%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29- 12%

30 to 45- 22%

46 to 65- 46%

Older than 65- 20%

So the splits!

To be frank… the partisan split on Q11 is based on some sort of alternate universe. The sample in May was 35D/33R/33I. The 2010 exit polls were 34D/37R/28I. The reason why one night polls are not typically done is because they do not produce results that can be passed off as reality in regards to certain characteristics of humanity.

Or you can believe that the demographics of MO drastically changed in 3 months.

But take the partisan splits, which are

Dems: Claire, 88-8

Reps: Akin, 71-10

Indys: Akin, 45-41

You put them with the party samples used in May, and Claire leads by 6% (47-41). You put them with the 2010 exit polls, and Claire leads by 3% (45-42). You put them with the 2008 exit polls (to be extreme) and she leads by 10%. Claire also leads by 6% (47-41) if you use SurveyUSA’s sample from a poll that Akin led by 11%.

Back in May, Claire led by 2 with women and was behind by 2 with men. The PPP says it’s +10 Claire with Women and +14 Akin with men.

And PPP has Claire up with every age-demo except 30-45 (where she trails 52-33)

I’d comment on the 18-29 results (which were the most pro-Claire but the least pro-Choice) but the sample was 60 people at home on a Monday Night.

How about we wait for a more substantive poll on the matter? But if you’re Todd Akin looking for some justification to continue your increasingly doomed campaign, you can use this flawed Republican-heavy poll to make your case to stick around.

Previously:

Rick Santorum (r) in Lee’s Summit, Missouri (February 3, 2012)

Sen. Will Kraus (r): warming up the crowd about urban schools at the Santorum rally (February 4, 2012)

Rick Santorum in Lee’s Summit, Missouri: the Blutarsky sermon on the summit (February 4, 2012)

The republican beauty contest presidential primary is today. Do your part to make it so:

Public Policy Polling

Big Day Possible for Santorum [pdf]

Q2 The Republican candidates for President on the ballot in Missouri are Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Ron Paul – 19%

Mitt Romney – 32%

Rick Santorum – 45%

Someone else/Not sure – 4%

[emphasis added]

Politics makes strange bedfellows, albeit with very different agendas, from the crosstabs:

2012 GOP Pres Primary

Ideology

Very liberal

Ron Paul – 18%

Mitt Romney – 18%

Rick Santorum – 63%

Someone else/Not sure – 0%

[….]

Tea Party ID

Yes

Ron Paul – 18%

Mitt Romney – 25%

Rick Santorum – 54%

Someone else/Not sure – 2%

[emphasis added]

Heh.

The PPP poll interviewed 958 likely primary voters in Missouri on February 6th. The margin of error was 3.2%.

Remember, to take part in the Missouri Democratic Party delegate selection process (caucus) you must have cast a ballot in today’s election. It doesn’t matter which ballot.

Public Policy Polling [pdf] released even more results from from their survey of 582 Missouri voters interviewed between January 27th and 29th. The margin of error for the poll is 4.1%.

Everyone, with the possible exception of a chunk of the Democratic Party base, loves Governor Jay Nixon (D):

Nixon is aided by a positive job approval rating. 44% of voters approve and 31% disapprove. He enjoys support from Democrats (54-25), Independents (44-29), and slightly over one third of Republican voters also approve of his job performance (34-40).

[emphasis added]

This, for a Democratic governor. It’s all good for Governor Nixon because the republican clown car has room for so many possibilities:

Q5 If the candidates for Governor this fall were Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Bill Randles, who would you vote for?

Jay Nixon – 47%

Bill Randles – 29%

Undecided – 24%

Q6 If the candidates for Governor this fall were Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Tom Schweich, who would you vote for?

Jay Nixon – 48%

Tom Schweich – 30%

Undecided – 22%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor this fall were Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Dave Spence, who would you vote for?

Jay Nixon – 47%

Dave Spence – 27%

Undecided – 26%

Previously:

PPP: Claire McCaskill, not particularly liked (February 1, 2012)

PPP: Obama (D) and Romney (r) (February 2, 2012)

Public Policy Polling [pdf] released additional results from from their survey of 582 Missouri voters interviewed between January 27th and 29th. The margin of error for the poll is 4.1%.

Interesting results:

Q8 If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama – 45%

Mitt Romney – 45%

Undecided – 9%

Why would that be?

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Favorable – 30%

Unfavorable – 54%

Not sure – 15%

[emphasis added]

Apparently Missouri has a significant number of perceptive poor people.

The crosstabs also enlighten us about the republican base:

Romney Favorability

Somewhat conservative

Favorable – 46%

Unfavorable – 35%

Not sure – 19%

Very conservative

Favorable – 36%

Unfavorable – 48%

Not sure – 16%

[emphasis added]

That would explain a lot.

Previously: PPP: Claire McCaskill, not particularly liked (February 1, 2012)

Progressive Change Campaign Committee/Democracy for America/Credo Action/MoveOn commissioned a series of polls in Missouri, Ohio, Minnesota, and Montana. The Missouri poll interviews were from May 13-16 and included 1,050 Missouri voters. The margin of error is 3%:

PCCC/DFA/Credo/MoveOn poll — Budget issues in swing states

QUESTION: In order to reduce the national debt, would you support or oppose cutting spending on Social Security, which is the retirement program for the elderly?

Missouri 17% support 76% oppose

QUESTION: In order to reduce the national debt, would you support or oppose cutting spending on Medicare, which is the government health insurance program for the elderly?

Missouri 19% support 77% oppose

QUESTION: In order to reduce the national debt, would you support or oppose cutting spending on Medicaid, which is the government health insurance program for the poor, disabled, and children?

Missouri 32% support 63% oppose

It’d be nice to get a look at the demographics.

What’s interesting is that the right has done such a great job of vilifying Medicaid that significantly more respondents are into cutting off the “poor, disabled, and children” from access to health care. So much for altruism.

Senator Claire McCaskill (D) at about the same PPP had their poll in the field:

Truman Days 2011: Senator Claire McCaskill (D) (May 15, 2011)

Senator Claire McCaskill (D): ….So how are we gonna get through the next decade and maintain our priorities and values? This will be a challenge. And I want to make sure no one leaves this room without me saying very clearly how serious the problem is. It is impossible to find a country in the world that has had economic growth when their debt equaled their GDP. When the debt in a country had equaled their gross domestic production countries don’t grow. Now, we are gonna be there in less than ten years. We will be there. So, if we don’t want to get there we all have to be honest and realistic about what has to happen. Does it have to be the way [Republican Congressman] Paul Ryan wants it to be? No, of course not. it does not have to be the way Paul Ryan. Do we have to end Medicare? No, we do not and we will not end Medicare, [applause, cheers] not on my watch. But we have a fight to in the future. And we have to have targeted investments in infrastructure, in innovation, and of course, in education. But we also have to realize that the footprint of the federal government is gonna have to shrink. And we do have to have a tax code that is less tilted towards the very, very, very, very wealthy in this country. [applause]….

If the poll is any indication the response to republicans shouldn’t just be no, it should be hell no. And that response shouldn’t just be for the benefit of the Democratic base, but to everyone.

If Democrats don’t incessantly club the republicans over the head with Medicare in 2012 they deserve to lose everything.  

On May 4th Public Policy Polling released the results of a survey of 555 Missouri voters taken from April 28th to May 1st with a margin of error of 3.9%. “PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.”

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Nixon still ahead

Jay Nixon continues to look like a solid favorite for reelection as Governor of Missouri, and his lead over his most likely opponent has expanded over the course of the last two months.

Nixon has good approval numbers, with 48% of voters giving him positive reviews to 29% who say they disapprove of his work. Nixon’s numbers continue to be a little bit unusual in that he’s weaker than you might expect with Democrats, with only a 61% rating where you would more often see a Governor in the 70-80% range with their own party’s voters. But he makes up for that by having an unusual level of appeal to Republicans, nearly breaking even with them at 36% who approve to 38% who disapprove. He’s also in good standing with independents at 46/29.

Nixon leads his most likely opponent for next year, Peter Kinder, 48-34 in a hypothetical contest. That’s up from 45-38 on PPP’s last poll of the race. Even though the Democratic base is not in love with Nixon they’ll still vote for him over Kinder by an 85-5 margin. Nixon also picks up 13% of the Republican vote and leads Kinder by a 46-27 spread with independents….

[emphasis added]

It makes it easier to ignore your party base when the opposition party’s leading candidate is a right wingnut with the political instincts and ability of a paving brick.

Crosstabs are here.