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On May 4th Public Policy Polling released the results of a survey of 555 Missouri voters taken from April 28th to May 1st with a margin of error of 3.9%. “PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.”

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Nixon still ahead

Jay Nixon continues to look like a solid favorite for reelection as Governor of Missouri, and his lead over his most likely opponent has expanded over the course of the last two months.

Nixon has good approval numbers, with 48% of voters giving him positive reviews to 29% who say they disapprove of his work. Nixon’s numbers continue to be a little bit unusual in that he’s weaker than you might expect with Democrats, with only a 61% rating where you would more often see a Governor in the 70-80% range with their own party’s voters. But he makes up for that by having an unusual level of appeal to Republicans, nearly breaking even with them at 36% who approve to 38% who disapprove. He’s also in good standing with independents at 46/29.

Nixon leads his most likely opponent for next year, Peter Kinder, 48-34 in a hypothetical contest. That’s up from 45-38 on PPP’s last poll of the race. Even though the Democratic base is not in love with Nixon they’ll still vote for him over Kinder by an 85-5 margin. Nixon also picks up 13% of the Republican vote and leads Kinder by a 46-27 spread with independents….

[emphasis added]

It makes it easier to ignore your party base when the opposition party’s leading candidate is a right wingnut with the political instincts and ability of a paving brick.

Crosstabs are here.