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Monthly Archives: March 2016

The relationship between proof, puddings and Republicans

21 Monday Mar 2016

Posted by willykay in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

The Missouri Senate, catering to the pique manifested by many religious bigots in the wake of the Supreme Court’s thumbs up for gay marriage, have passed on to the House a joint resolution, SJR39  (pdf), that would allow the aforesaid bigots to discriminate in the public business sphere anytime their oh-so-tender consciences are aroused by LBGT folks who want wedding-related – and, potentially other – services. If the resolution is also passed by the House, it will go on to the ballot in November,  giving majority heterosexual Missourians  the option to modify the state’s constitution so that so-called Christians will have the right to discriminate against a minority in the name of their religion, thus besmirching both the state’s Constitution and Christianity.

The potential for economic blowback has so alarmed the business committee that they are imploring the House to either alter SJR39 or let it die. In the words of the head of the Missouri Chamber of Commerce:

“You can’t ignore the economic backlash that has occurred in other states considering this type of legislation,” chamber President and CEO Dan Mehan said in a statement. “We do not want that in Missouri.”

The Chamber has good reason to believe that freedom to discriminate in the name of religion would hurt the Missouri economy. Indiana is still trying to undo the damage done to its economy after the passage of a similar bill. Estimates are that it will cost Indiana $2 million in public relations spending to undo the damage.

Nevertheless,  Missouri’s  GOP just doesn’t get it – or just doesn’t care:

. . . Republican sponsor Sen. Bob Onder, of Lake Saint Louis, said, “They seem to be making this general claim that somehow SJR 39 would be bad for the Missouri economy. They’re making that statement without any proof at all.”

Kind of makes you think that Onder doesn’t understand how proof works. But sadly, denial seems to be the way Republicans work when it comes to the gap between reality and their preferred ideologies. Take , for instance,  Sam Brownback’s Kansas economic “experiment”:

… . Like the budget plans of every Republican presidential candidate, Brownback’s “real live experiment” proceeded from the hypothesis that tax cuts for the wealthy are such a boon to economic growth, they actually end up paying for themselves (so long as you kick the undeserving poor out of their welfare hammocks). The Koch-backed Kansas Policy Institute predicted that Brownback’s 2013 tax plan would generate $323 million in new revenue. During its first full year in operation, the plan produced a $688 million loss. Meanwhile, Kansas’s job growth actually trailed that of its neighboring states. With that nearly $700 million deficit, the state had bought itself a 1.1 percent increase in jobs, just below Missouri’s 1.5 percent and Colorado’s 3.3.

Those numbers have hardly improved in the intervening years. In 2015, job growth in Kansas was a mere 0.1 percent, even as the nation’s economy grew 1.9 percent. Brownback pledged to bring 100,000* new jobs to the state in his second term; as of January, he has brought 700. What’s more, personal income growth slowed dramatically since the tax cuts went into effect. Between 2010 and 2012, Kansas saw income growth of 6.1 percent, good for 12th in the nation; from 2013 to 2015, that rate was 3.6 percent, good for 41st.

Meanwhile, revenue shortfalls have devastated the state’s public sector along with its most vulnerable citizens. Since Brownback’s inauguration, 1,414 Kansans with disabilities have been thrown off  Medicaid. In 2015, six school districts in the state were forced to end their years early for lack of funding. Cuts to health and human services are expected to cause 65 preventable deaths this year in Sedgwick County alone. In February, tax receipts came in $53 million below estimates; Brownback immediately cut $17 million from the state’s university system. …

Kansas is actually losing jobs this year, instead of adding the vast numbers of jobs predicted by Brownback and his GOP legislative pals. The story is similar in Louisiana where ex-Governor Bobby Jindal implemented the same  GOP endorsed “supply-side” experiment and ended up trashing the state’s economy. Nor are results that great in other states where Republican governors hold sway.

As Paul Waldman notes, “The trouble is that we’ve been testing their [i.e. Republican’s] theory for some time now, and it isn’t holding up well.” But all this evidence doesn’t stop Missouri Republicans from singing the same old song: Tax cuts and more tax cuts. Missouri GOPers have quite seriously proposed to address crumbling infrastructure, an underfunded educational system, and abysmal social services by cutting revenue. Isn’t it time for us to remind lawmakers like Onder that the proof really is in the pudding (or, rather, the multiple puddings).  You can’t just cover your eyes and ears and pretend that the elephant in the room isn’t really sick.

There are any number of areas where these folks seem incapable of separating what is from what they want it to be. And much of the time, it ends up costing their constituents tax dollars with no return (drug testing welfare recipients, for example) or diminishing the quality of life in the state (gun violence). Which leaves us with the question: just who thinks Missouri’s Republicans are fit to make decisions that affect our lives and our pocketbooks? Apart from big campaign donors like Rex Sinquefield, that is, along with others who stand to gain from our pain – although I doubt many of them would go to bat for SJR39.

Campaign Finance: we almost forgot

21 Monday Mar 2016

Posted by Michael Bersin in campaign finance

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

campiagn finance, governor, missouri, Missouri Ethics Commission, Peter Kinder

Today at the Missouri Ethics Commission for Peter Kinder’s (r) 2016 gubernatorial campaign:

C151161 03/21/2016 MISSOURIANS FOR PETER KINDER Innovation Homes LLC 1730 E. Republic Rd Ste F Springfield MO 65804 3/19/2016 $5,001.00

[emphasis added]

Every little bit must help.

Campaign Finance: really hoping for the return of the blimp

20 Sunday Mar 2016

Posted by Michael Bersin in campaign finance

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

campaign finance, Grow Missouri, missouri, Missouri Ethics Commission, PAC, Rex Sinquefield

Some of us.

The Rex Sinquefield funded PAC Grow Missouri’s moving billboard at  the University of Central Missouri’s Skyhaven Airport near Warrensburg [October 2014 file photo].

The Rex Sinquefield funded PAC Grow Missouri’s moving billboard at the University of Central Missouri’s Skyhaven Airport near Warrensburg [October 2014 file photo].

Today at the Missouri Ethics Commission:

C131097 03/20/2016 GROW MISSOURI Rex Sinquefield 244 Bent Walnut Westphalia MO 65085 Retired 3/17/2016 $21,625.00

[emphasis added]

Does anyone think we could lobby for it?

Previously:

The blimp is dope, man… (November 8, 2014)

Campaign Finance: Startup costs? (March 5, 2016)

Campaign Finance: Bring back the blimp! (March 9, 2016)

President Obama: on the nomination of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court

20 Sunday Mar 2016

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Barack Obama, Merrick Garland, missouri, nomination, Roy Blunt, Supreme Court, U.S. Senate

President Obama’s weekly address:

The White House transcript:

Remarks of President Barack Obama as Delivered
Weekly Address
The White House
​March 19, 2016

Hi, everybody. One of the most consequential responsibilities our Constitution grants a President is appointing a Supreme Court Justice. The men and women who sit on the Supreme Court safeguard our rights. They ensure that ours is a system of laws, not of men. And they’re given the essential task of applying the principles written into our founding documents to the most challenging questions of today.

So this is a duty I take very seriously. It requires me to set aside short-term politics in order to maintain faith with our founders. And on Wednesday, after weeks of consultations with Republicans, Democrats, and leaders across the country, I selected a nominee whose unmatched experience and integrity have earned him the respect and admiration of both parties – Chief Judge Merrick Garland.

Judge Garland grew up in my hometown of Chicago, with parents who taught him to work hard and deal fairly. As a young lawyer, he left a lucrative private firm to work for half as much in public service. Eventually, he oversaw the federal response to the Oklahoma City bombing, working side-by-side with first responders, victims, and their families to bring justice for an unspeakable crime. And everywhere he went during that investigation, he carried with him in his briefcase the program from the memorial service with each of the victims’ names inside.

For the last 19 years, Judge Garland has served on what’s known as “the second highest court in the land” – the D.C. Circuit Court – including the last three years as Chief Judge. On the bench, he’s shown a dedication to protecting our basic rights. A conviction that powerful voices must not be allowed to drown out those of everyday Americans. An understanding that justice isn’t simply abstract legal theory; it affects people’s daily lives. And a spirit of decency, modesty, and even-handedness in his work. Judge Garland is admired for his courtesy, his devotion to family, and his civic-mindedness – for the past 18 years, he’s served as a tutor for young students at a local D.C. elementary school.

During my time as President, through three separate Supreme Court appointments, in conversations with Republicans and Democrats alike, one name came up more than any other – Merrick Garland.

I understand that we’re in the middle of an especially noisy and volatile political season. But at a time when our politics are so polarized; when norms and customs of our political rhetoric seem to be corroding – this is precisely the time we should treat the appointment of a Supreme Court justice with the seriousness it deserves. Because our Supreme Court is supposed to be above politics, not an extension of politics. And it should stay that way.

So I ask Republicans in the Senate to give Judge Garland the respect he has earned. Give him a hearing. Give him an up-or-down vote. To deny it would be an abdication of the Senate’s Constitutional duty. It would indicate a process for nominating and confirming judges that is beyond repair. It would make it increasingly impossible for any President, Republican or Democrat, to carry out their Constitutional function. To go down that path would jeopardize our system of justice, it would hurt our democracy, and betray the vision of our founding.

I fulfilled my Constitutional duty. Now it’s time for Senators to do theirs. I hope that they take the time to reflect on the importance of this process to our country. I hope that they’ll act fairly. And I hope they’ll work in a bipartisan fashion to confirm Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. That’s how we can uphold our pledge to liberty and justice for all – for our time and for generations to come.

Thanks everybody. Have a good weekend.

###

“…I fulfilled my Constitutional duty. Now it’s time for Senators to do theirs…”

We’re not entirely convinced that Senator Roy Blunt (r) is listening.

Previously:

Originalism in a time of argle-bargle (February 14, 2016)

Jason Kander (D): the Supreme Court and Roy Blunt (r) (February 15, 2016)

Sen. Roy Blunt (r): can’t be bothered to even attempt to appear to do his job (February 23, 2016)

Jason Kander (D) to Roy Blunt (r): #DoYourJob (February 25, 2016)

Tell Roy Blunt to do his job (March 4, 2016)

Sen. Roy Blunt (r) won’t do his job and the sun also rises (March 17, 2016)

Exactly this

20 Sunday Mar 2016

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, president, Primary

Hillary Clinton [2014 file photo].

Hillary Clinton [2014 file photo].

As it stands to date (via RealClearPolitics):

2016 Democratic Popular Vote
RCP Total – Clinton 8,651,128 Sanders 6,111,918 Clinton +2,539,210

[emphasis added]

Election 2016 — Democratic Delegate Count
Delegates Won – [Total available – pledged] 4051 Clinton 1119 Sanders 813
Superdelegates – (712) Clinton 467 Sanders 26

[emphasis added]

In Slate:

How Hillary Clinton Keeps Winning
Obama beat her with the same strategy she’s using to pull away from Bernie Sanders.
By Jamelle Bouie

….Clinton still has a long slog to the nomination—it takes time to accumulate the delegates she needs—but it’s a clear one, without major obstacles. In a sense, she and her team have reverse-engineered Obama’s 2008 effort, bringing “establishment” resources—huge fundraising and tremendous party support—to bear on an insurgent-style campaign that focused on voter contacts and organizing instead of paid media and massive events….

If you attend a rally for the opposition party’s leading candidate and get punched in the face it doesn’t qualify as a particular effective get out the vote activity for your candidate. I suspect that it works quite well for the opposition candidate.

“…that focused on voter contacts and organizing instead of paid media and massive events…”

Exactly this.

In a world where t-shirts, bumper stickers, and campaign rallies are a lot of fun the real work gets done by those who try to persuade actual voters by knocking on doors and staffing phone banks. And come election day you drag your voters to the polls.

Previously:

Keep Calm and Carry On (March 9, 2016)

Keep Calm and Carry On – part 2 (March 16, 2016)

Impatient

19 Saturday Mar 2016

Posted by Michael Bersin in social media

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Donald Trump, Jeff Roe, missouri, Primary, social media, Ted Cruz, Twitter

Yesterday, from Donald Trump (r), via Twitter:

Trumo031816

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump
Why haven’t they released the final Missouri victory for us yet? Could it be because Cruz’s guy runs Missouri? 8:53 PM – 18 Mar 2016

Could it be this?:

State of Missouri – Presidential Preference Primary – March 15, 2016
Unofficial Results
as of 3/19/2016 9:57:57 AM

U.S. President 3041 of 3041 Precincts Reported
[….]
Chris Christie Republican 1,677 0.179%
Jeb Bush Republican 3,349 0.358%
Ben Carson Republican 8,201 0.876%
Donald J. Trump Republican 382,093 40.831%
Marco Rubio Republican 57,006 6.092%
Ted Cruz Republican 380,367 40.646%
Rick Santorum Republican 729 0.078%
Carly Fiorina Republican 613 0.066%
John R. Kasich Republican 94,533 10.102%
Rand Paul Republican 1,771 0.189%
Jim Lynch Republican 102 0.011%
Mike Huckabee Republican 2,137 0.228%
Uncommitted Republican 3,216 0.344%
Party Total: 935,794
[….]

[emphasis added]

And this?:

Missouri Revised Statutes
Chapter 115
Election Authorities and Conduct of Elections

115.508. Notwithstanding any other provision of law to the contrary, no election authority or verification board shall certify election results, as required under section 115.507, before noon on the Friday after election day.

Political amateurs have no understanding of the concept of election certification. Political professionals and media long ago sacrificed that concept on the altar of instant results.

Or it could be short attention spans. Look over there! Squirrel!

HB 2825: “Corporations are people, my friend.”

18 Friday Mar 2016

Posted by Michael Bersin in Missouri General Assembly, Missouri House

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

campaign finance, corporations, General Assembly, HB 2825, Justin Alferman, missouri

Who said that?

A bill introduced on Wednesday by Representative Justin Alferman (r):

SECOND REGULAR SESSION
HOUSE BILL NO. 2825 [pdf]
98TH GENERAL ASSEMBLY

INTRODUCED BY REPRESENTATIVE ALFERMAN.

6859H.02I D. ADAM CRUMBLISS, Chief Clerk

AN ACT

To amend chapter 130, RSMo, by adding thereto one new section relating to the political free speech and campaign finance reform act.

Be it enacted by the General Assembly of the state of Missouri, as follows:

Section A. Chapter 130, RSMo, is amended by adding thereto one new section, to be 2 known as section 130.350, to read as follows:
130.350. 1. This section shall be known and may be cited as the “Political Free Speech and Campaign Finance Reform Act”.
2. Notwithstanding any other provision of law, no committee or political party shall knowingly accept contributions from any foreign government or any natural person who is not a United States citizen, national, or lawfully admitted permanent resident, as defined by federal law.

[emphasis added]

That’s the entire bill.

It’s a quite a stretch to imply that this bill protects a vast ocean of political free speech and/or does something about reforming the entirety of our campaign finance system in Missouri. Maybe it also removes stubborn stains and can whiten your teeth.

Well, almost everything appears to be covered. Foreign government? Check. Natural person who is not a U.S. citizen? Check. Foreign corporations or multi-national corporations? Oops. Why on earth would that be missing? Just asking.

Please proceed, Governor

18 Friday Mar 2016

Posted by Michael Bersin in social media

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

facebook, Mitt Romney, president, social media

From Governor Mitt Romney (r), via Facebook:

Mitt Romney

This week, in the Utah nominating caucus, I will vote for Senator Ted Cruz.

Today, there is a contest between Trumpism and Republicanism. Through the calculated statements of its leader, Trumpism has become associated with racism, misogyny, bigotry, xenophobia, vulgarity and, most recently, threats and violence. I am repulsed by each and every one of these.

The only path that remains to nominate a Republican rather than Mr. Trump is to have an open convention. At this stage, the only way we can reach an open convention is for Senator Cruz to be successful in as many of the remaining nominating elections as possible.

I like Governor John Kasich. I have campaigned with him. He has a solid record as governor. I would have voted for him in Ohio. But a vote for Governor Kasich in future contests makes it extremely likely that Trumpism would prevail.

I will vote for Senator Cruz and I encourage others to do so as well, so that we can have an open convention and nominate a Republican.

It’s the world they created, now they have to live in it.

Campaign Finance: it’s like a campaign contribution, only smaller – part 34

17 Thursday Mar 2016

Posted by Michael Bersin in campaign finance

≈ 3 Comments

Tags

campaign finance, Eric Greitens., governor, missouri, Missouri Ethics Commission

Today at the Missouri Ethics Commission for Eric Greitens (r) 2016 gubernatorial campaign:

C151053 03/17/2016 GREITENS FOR MISSOURI David OReilly 2831 S. Ingram Mill Rd. Springfield MO 65804 O’Reilly Auto Parts Chairman 3/17/2016 $5,001.00

[emphasis added]

It’s all so familiar.

Previously:

Eric Greitens (r) – January 2016 Quarterly Campaign Finance Report – “Running for governor in which state?” (January 17, 2016)

Campaign Finance: it’s like a campaign contribution, only smaller – part 33 (March 16, 2016)

Sen. Roy Blunt (r) won’t do his job and the sun also rises

17 Thursday Mar 2016

Posted by Michael Bersin in social media

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

missouri, Obstructionism, Roy Blunt, Senate, U.S. Supreme Court

Early this morning in west central Missouri.

Sunrise.

Sunrise.

Meanwhile, the same old republican obstructionism in Washington, D.C.:

RoyBlunt031616

Senator Roy Blunt ‏@RoyBlunt
I will not vote for this nominee to the Supreme Court. (3/3) 10:34 AM – 16 Mar 2016

Dude, you and the republican majority in the U.S. Senate won’t even hold hearings or a vote.

Do your job. Schmuck.

Previously:

Originalism in a time of argle-bargle (February 14, 2016)

Jason Kander (D): the Supreme Court and Roy Blunt (r) (February 15, 2016)

Sen. Roy Blunt (r): can’t be bothered to even attempt to appear to do his job (February 23, 2016)

Jason Kander (D) to Roy Blunt (r): #DoYourJob (February 25, 2016)

Tell Roy Blunt to do his job (March 4, 2016)

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