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Monthly Archives: September 2008

Did You Know Immigrants Cause Global Warming?

26 Friday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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That’s the conclusion of a recent “study” released by the anti-immigrant “think” tank – the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), which has a history of publishing less-than-credible research.

After a careful review of “Immigration to the United States and World-Wide Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” we produced this video to tell it like it is: a bunch of… well.. watch the video.

The question is, what will immigrants be blamed.

In just the last few weeks, it’s been Global Warming, Stealing Elections, and now – you guessed it – the Wall Street Meltdown.

Well, this is your chance to weigh in. No joke — having blamed immigrants for nearly every problem facing the world, we are concerned that the anti-immigrant brain trust is scraping the bottom of the barrel. So in the interest of promoting a lively debate, please take our 10-second poll available here – http://www.americasvoiceonline…

Thanks for casting your vote!

[poll id=”

38

“]

Bush Fundraising for Hulshof Next Week

26 Friday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 3 Comments

Tags

Kenny Hulshof, missouri

Mr. 24% will be in Saint Louis on October 3rd to raise money for the sagging campaign of Kenny Hulshof. Bush may not be popular, but he is apparently still expected to draw the big bucks – $2,000 just to attend the dinner, $25,000 for a private reception and photo op.

SurveyUSA says: McCain 48, Obama 46

26 Friday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 6 Comments

Tags

Barack Obama, John McCain, missouri

SurveyUSA says 48/46 McCain

I’d mention the Research2000 polling, but internals are currently hard to come by, and i’m reading either 47/46 McCain or 49/45 McCain there. Or both at different times. I’ll save some posting for other front-pagers though.

The internals for SurveyUSA..

Males (50%): 50/44 McCain

Females (50%): 48/47 Obama

18-34 (24%): 57/37 Obama

35-49 (31%): 51/44 McCain

50-64 (26%): 49/44 McCain

65+ (19%): 58/38 McCain

18-49 (55%): 50/45 Obama

50+ (45%): 52/41 McCain

White (86%): 53/42 McCain

African-American (10%): 83/14 Obama

Republican (32%): 89/8 McCain

Democratic (38%): 82/14 Obama

Independent (23%): 48/41 McCain

North MO (14%): 60/34 McCain

Kansas City (19%): 55/39 Obama

SW MO (18%): 57/37 McCain

St. Louis (40%): 50/45 Obama

SE MO (9%): 50/44 McCain

Keeping in mind that I don’t know how SurveyUSA defines geography (or why the St. Louis market is going to outvote KC by two times).. Therefore, here are a few comments from those numbers.

1) 37% in SW MO? If that holds up, then things are going to be very interesting. It was Jim Talent’s soft showing in SW MO in 2006 that was a signal that he was going to have a bad night. Even after Governor Turtle’s ascent to the fencepost, McCain isn’t at 60% in Southwest Missouri?

2) 55% for the KC metro area is promising. I don’t recall Kerry getting into the high 50s for just Jackson County in 2004. Obama will roll in the KCEB section of the county and I’d imagine things should go well in the JCEB section (aka EJC).

3) 44% in Southeast MO suggests that either they’re sampling oddly random places, or the Boothill and the whole area around HD152 will give us a good enough showing for Obama. Or Cape is soft for McCain too.

So, Here is some comparison to the exit polling done at the nadir of Missouri Democratic performance (2004).

53% of voters were women in 2004, contrary to the sample used by SurveyUSA; 89/8 was the racial split in 2004. The age demos were slightly different, 20% of 18-29 voted in 2004, so those people are now 22-33, and a 4 point spike in 4 years might be a bit small. The 65+ vote is up from the 2004 sample (it was 11%, and +4 Kerry in 2004).

But in 2006 the splits included 55% female, 83/13 White, 17% over 65, and 15% who were 18-29.

So essentially we’re in House of Mirrors territory. It’s a horserace.

No word on if the Post-turtle will be debating at Wash-U next week. John McCain is debating tonight, but you never know about how available the hermit-esque VP candidate will be.

Obama now within 1 in Missouri

26 Friday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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The St. Louis Post Dispatch is reporting that in their newest poll, Obama has narrowed McCain’s lead to only one statistically significant point in Missouri.  

The poll showed Republican John McCain with a one-point edge, 47 percent to 46 percent for Obama. A week earlier, a similar Research 2000 poll showed McCain held a 4 percentage point lead.

If the Obama supporters keep their heads down and do their jobs he is going to win Missouri and he will be the next President of the United States.

I’m sorry this is so short and lacks analysis but I’m out of time and I wanted to get this up.  

Kenny walking in Blunt's footsteps on judges

26 Friday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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Like Kenny being chaperoned to the August prom by Roy Blunt wasn’t enough of a sign of where he stood

Hulshof, the Republican candidate for governor, unveiled his plan Tuesday to remake the nonpartisan plan to overcome what he called the system’s domination by plaintiff’s lawyers trying to stack the bench with lawyers sympathetic to damage claims.

Hulshof’s plan would expand the number of nominees from three to five, remove lawyers from any role in the selection process and give more influence to the governor by allowing him to reject all the nominees and make his own selection.

He said the changes would make Missouri’s legal environment more hospitable to business, which would encourage more companies to open operations here. The changes are needed to alleviate disorder in the courts caused by the plaintiff’s lawyers’ undue influence, he said.

In other words, while you’re drinking some rocket-fuel water, you can have a more partisan and more pro-business court system. What a present from Uncle Kenny!

The Blunt Hulshof plan is here.

A brief summary of the plan

1a) “Please someone in the lawsuit be in Missouri” (looks like he intends for plantiffs to be required as MO citizens, but he leaves the door wide open)

1b) “Not currently physically injured, tough buster!” (tough luck to anybody with trauma or who was injured)

1c) “Not an insured driver, no punitive damages for you!”

2a) “Let’s just get rid of the attorneys we don’t like and randomly pick retired judges”

2b) “Kenny Hulshof will replace the Chief Justice with one randomly-selected retired Supreme Court Judge” [real quote this time] (It’ll be like a lottery!)

2c) “More choices from the AJC for me to reject!”

2d) This one has two good real quotes

“To ensure that the voters of Missouri have a voice in the process, Kenny will provide the governor with two vetoes.” – (since when was a Gubernatorial veto about the voice of Missouri voters. Don’t we have a rarely-used vote if we dislike these judges so badly?)

“To guard against nepotism and cronyism in the rare circumstance of two gubernatorial vetoes, Kenny will ban governors from appointing any family member, current or former staffer, or campaign contributor to the Supreme Court.”

First off, Here’s what the Missouri state constitution says about Nepotism

Any public officer or employee in this state who by virtue of his office or employment names or appoints to public office or employment any relative within the fourth degree, by consanguinity or affinity, shall thereby forfeit his office or employment.

If Kenny went bonkers, and appointed his relative within the 4th degree Herman Hulshof to the Court.. then Kenny would lose his job as Governor under Article 7, Section 6.

Also, no campaign contributors? Yeah, and I have a great deal involving money stuck in Nigeria.

And the Hulshof plan ends with an attack you could expect on Jay Nixon. Whooptie doo.

On the subject of ad-watches. It’s clever for the backbencher Kenny bring up the one bill he passed out of the house as his answer to the taxes ad that Nixon dropped on him. But, I think we’ll see some more interesting things in the TV air-war.

Lt. Gov polling: Page 38, Kinder 37

26 Friday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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Shortly after telling Hotmail that e-mails from the Page campaign weren’t junk mail, I was able to lay my eyes on this poll conducted for Page by Global Strategy Group.

So let’s take a look at some of the internals.. First, the question

The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are [ROTATE ORDER OF READING] Sam Page, the Democrat, Peter Kinder, the Republican, Teddy Fleck, the Libertarian, AND James Rensing, the Constitution party candidate. If the election were held today, who would you vote for?

[IF UNDECIDED] Well, which one would you lean toward supporting if the election were held today?

Internals

Kinder leads with White voters 43-30. Page leads with African-Americans 85-3.

Page leads amongst Democrats 85 to 0. Kinder leads amongst Republicans 81 to 2. So basically Republicans like the Republican, Democrats love the Democrat.

And Kinder leads amongst Independents 23 to 12 with 8% picking for Fleck or Rensing (the grand ol’ protest vote)

Yes, 57% of Independents were undecided there.

So in other words, it’s a horserace.

On doing some spreadsheeting, it looks like a 41D/40R/19I sort of sample.

Essentially polls can be divided a few ways. Some polls will let you waver between options, and a few will basically push you kicking or screaming one way or another.

When you consider that a lot of people probably haven’t seen a Sam Page ad, and that it’s downballot. This is a good sign. I’d imagine the usual protest vote (2%ish at least) will come out. And if so many independents are so undecided, then.. that’ll be the gamemaker.

Also, the Missouri Deputy Sheriffs Association endorsed Page and Missouri Right to Life won’t endorse Kinder partly due to their assumption that Kinder supported Amendment Two.

Honest and Open Elections

25 Thursday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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Tags

Danforth, honest elections, missouri

Oh, thank goodness. John Danforth is riding to the rescue to make sure that nobody misbehaves themselves by trying to commit vote fraud this November. Missouri’s straight arrow ex-senator and ex-senator Warren Rudman are working for the McCain campaign to achieve “honest and open elections”. They have reached out to the Obama campaign asking that the two groups work together to solve election fraud issues.

The issues they’re most concerned about are fake registrations and too many registrations.

Oh.

Too many registrations, huh?

Yes, during a conference call with reporters that I participated in, Danforth and Rudman waxed eloquent about ACORN registration abuses, whining pointing out that in some states as much as 30-40 percent of the registration cards they turn in are incomplete or duplicates. The McCain spokesmen emphasized how unfortunate it is that these ACORN workers are gumming up the works at county election boards, making it difficult to register those who really deserve to sign up.

The senators said that a few ACORN workers have even ended up with prison sentences for vote fraud.

ACORN has its faults, and the Obama campaign is determined to work with its own volunteers registering people. But I’d be more impressed with Danforth’s plaint if the Republicans weren’t such snotty, cheating liars about their vote suppression tactics. I get my knickers in a twist when I hear, for example, about a Republican party official in Michigan announcing plans to use poll challengers to block anyone whose house is in foreclosure proceedings from voting. Danforth dismissed that report as false, just something that gained traction because it was “reported on a blog.” (You can’t trust a blogger as far as you can spit, you know.)

“We will have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren’t voting from those addresses,” party chairman James Carabelli told Michigan Messenger in a telephone interview earlier this week. He said the local party wanted to make sure that proper electoral procedures were followed.

 

Everything I know about Republican tactics to disenfranchise Democratic voters in Florida in 2000 and 20004, as well as Kenneth Blackwell’s scummy tactics in Ohio when Kerry was running makes this story credible. It’s classic Republican suppress the vote style.

And consider the ramifications of this cheesy trick. The county where these plans were to be implemented–no matter how much Danforth denies that any such plans were harbored–has a high concentration of African-Americans. They’ll be out in force come November, and the lines to vote will be lo-o-ng. Think what even just a few challenges could do to gum up the works and slow down the lines.

But even if Danforth deserved the benefit of the doubt on that particular vote caging effort, the ACLU last week filed a lawsuit in that swing state because of other shenanigans Republicans are up to:

Under one voter removal program, the Michigan Department of State, which administers both driver’s license and voter registration records, immediately cancels the voter registrations of Michigan voters who obtain driver’s licenses in other states instead of issuing the appropriate confirmation of registration notices and following the required voter removal procedures mandated by the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 (NVRA). According to the Department’s own estimations, over 280,000 voters per year are removed from the rolls in this manner.

Under the second voter removal program, a Michigan state law requires local clerks to nullify the registrations of newly-registered voters whenever their original voter identification cards are returned by the post office as undeliverable. Detroit elections officials report that nearly 30,000 voters per year in that city alone are removed from the rolls as a result of this state election law, which violates the NVRA and other federal and state laws. The NVRA permits voters to remain on the voter rolls for at least two federal elections after voter registration cards are returned.

As for Danforth/Rudman harping on the flood of new registrations, well of course they’re worried. Don’t think Republicans haven’t noticed that if the popular will actually prevails, they lose elections. But I notice that the St. Louis County Republican elections director, Joseph Goeke, is taking the task of processing it all in stride:

At least 20,000 of those registrations are in  St. Louis County, where the Election  Board has 50 workers – many of them temporary employees – tackling the  backlog.

County Republican elections director Joseph Goeke acknowledged that his office may not be complying with a state law mandating that new voter registrations be on the books within seven days.

“We’re doing them as fast as we can,” Goeke said, noting that an additional 2,000 new registration cards showed up Monday at the Election Board.

A spokeswoman for Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, the state’s chief elections official, said the office is concerned about St. Louis County’s troubles, but pleased that all the registrations should be on the books in the next few weeks.

People who deal with new registrations understand that it is, by its nature, a messy process, bound to produce duplications and inaccuracies. Clark told me that when he asked an elderly woman at her door if she was registered, she said: “Oh, do you have to be registered to vote?” “Yes, ma’am.” But as he set about getting her registered, he asked if she had ever tried to vote, and she told him that she always votes. “Did you vote in the primary last February?” he asked. “Yes, I did.”

She may have registered fifty years ago and was confused about what’s required now. Perhaps another volunteer would have simply had her fill out the card without questioning her further. That would be one of those duplicates Danforth accused us of using to gum up the works.

So I say, keep on registering them folk and ignore the outrage vibrating in Danforth’s voice when he reminds us of the time back in 1992 when a dog got registered to vote as a Democrat. How those Republicans love to pull that old chestnut out of the fire.

Ignore Danforth. For all his vaunted reputation as a straight shooter, he’s still … just … a Republican.

Volunteers say the darndest things…

25 Thursday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

campaign volunteers, debate, McSame, phone canvassing

Overheard at our local headquarters:

Hello, I’m calling for Senator Obama’s Campaign for Change here in Warrensburg. Are you planning on voting for Barack Obama in November? Oh, you’re undecided. Well, I suppose you could watch the debate tomorrow, but I think Senator Obama is the only one planning on showing up…

They needed to ask?

25 Thursday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Ashcroft, Bush White House, crimes against humanity, media criticism, Rice, Rumsfeld, torture

Harsh interrogation techniques? Don’t you long for simpler times when everyone knew it was called torture?

New York Times

Bush Aides Linked to Talks on Interrogations

By MARK MAZZETTI

Published: September 24, 2008

WASHINGTON – Senior White House officials played a central role in deliberations in the spring of 2002 about whether the Central Intelligence Agency could legally use harsh interrogation techniques while questioning an operative of Al Qaeda, Abu Zubaydah, according to newly released documents…

…The documents provide new details about the still-murky early months of the C.I.A.’s detention program, when the agency began using a set of harsh interrogation techniques weeks before the Justice Department issued a written legal opinion in August 2002 authorizing their use. Congressional investigators have long tried to determine exactly who authorized these techniques before the legal opinion was completed…

Uh, the 2002 memo was withdrawn, because it was in conflict with the peremptory norms of international law and the standards of behavior for civilized nations:

A Small Clique Of Legal Extremists…

The Memorandum for Alberto R. Gonzales, Counsel to the President of August 1, 2002 (the so-called “Bybee Memo”) goes to great lengths to narrowly define torture, create a “defense” defense, and to further assert the unitary executive (that the President determines what is “the law”). The memo signed by Jay Bybee, then an assistant Attorney General and now a judge on the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, was reportedly the work of John Yoo, now a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley. There is no mention of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights in this memo…

…LEGAL STANDARDS APPLICABLE UNDER 18 U.S.C. ยงยง 2340-2340A MEMORANDUM OPINION FOR THE DEPUTY ATTORNEY GENERAL issued on December 30, 2004 (the so-called “Levin Memo”) states: “…This memorandum supersedes the August 2002 Memorandum in its entirety…”

AWOL military justice

Why the former chief prosecutor for the Office of Military Commissions resigned his post.

By Morris D. Davis

December 10, 2007

Los Angeles Times

I was the chief prosecutor for the military commissions at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, until Oct. 4, the day I concluded that full, fair and open trials were not possible under the current system. I resigned on that day because I felt that the system had become deeply politicized and that I could no longer do my job effectively or responsibly…

…I had instructed the prosecutors in September 2005 that we would not offer any evidence derived by waterboarding, one of the aggressive interrogation techniques the administration has sanctioned…

[emphasis added]

The old media is pathetic. They use the memes and language of those who want to obscure their reprehensible behavior. Torture is torture, not a “harsh interrogation technique.” As a party to the Tokyo War Crimes Trials the United States prosecuted individuals for waterboarding prisoners because it was torture. I’d expect even the mediocre legal minds who have served the present administration to know that. And the New York Times, too.

McCain Campaign Suspended… Or Not??

25 Thursday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

field office, John McCain, missouri

So John McCain sent out a message yesterday afternoon, proclaiming that he was suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to “solve the financial crisis”:

Tomorrow morning, I will suspend my campaign and return to Washington after speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative. I have spoken to Senator Obama and informed him of my decision and have asked him to join me.

I am calling on the president to convene a meeting with the leadership from both houses of Congress, including Senator Obama and myself. It is time for both parties to come together to solve this problem.

Since McCain’s ads are still running, his flacks are on TV attacking Obama, and he gave a major campaign speech today, I wondered what kind of campaign activities McCain was actually planning on suspending. So I sent an e-mail to the local McCain field office, posing as a conservative eager to help out:

Dear Lane,

I found your e-mail address on the Missouri for John McCain website. I’m a staunch conservative who has had my fair share of disagreements with Senator McCain. Still, I can’t stand the idea of seeing the liberals take over the entire government, especially this Barrack “Osama Lover” Obama as our Commander in Chief.

I’ve seen Senator McCain take a little bit of a dip in the polls in the last few days, and it concerns me a great deal. I feel like I have to do something. I have some time from this evening through Monday, and again on future weekends, to help out. What can I do??

Thank you,

Kenny Bennett

Needless to say, in his response (posted below the fold) the local field director gave no hint of a suspension of the campaign, impending or otherwise. Only slightly less surprising is the lack of acknowledgement that McCain’s opponent was being called “Osama Lover.”

Since McCain hasn’t actually suspended any part of his campaign operation, despite his call for America to come together to work toward a common solution, we can definitely call this the gimmick that it is.

Thank you very much for your willingness to help out on the McCain campaign. There are many was to help, but phone-banking and door knocking are the areas which we need the most volunteer help.

We phone bank Monday – Saturday 9am – 9pm and Sundays 9am – 7pm. Phone banking occurs at our headquarters. Our address is 921 Fee Fee Road, Maryland Heights, 63043. We are right across the street from Westport Plaza .

We go door to door every Saturday in two shifts: 9am – 2pm and 2pm – 6pm. We most often meet near or in the precincts we are walking.

Please call (314)-542-9060 to schedule a time to come in.

Every time you complete 1,000 dials in our phone bank you’ll receive an awesome McCain Team Leader hat. Once you reach 1500 dials, you’ll receive a McCain Team Leader T-Shirt.

Every Saturday we have our “Women for McCain” phone bank. Each female phone banker will receive a free “Women for McCain” yard sign. (Men invited to help!)

Thank you again for your willingness to help! Only a short bit until November 4th! Let’s make the push together.

Lane Koch

Field Director – St. Louis

Victory 2008

314.542.9061

lane@mogop.org

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