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Monthly Archives: September 2008

lection

25 Thursday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Oh, thank goodness. John Danforth is riding to the rescue to make sure that we have open and transparent elections this November. Missouri’s straight arrow ex-senator and ex-senator Warren Rudman are working for the McCain campaign to achieve “open and transparent elections. They have reached out to the Obama campaign asking that the two groups work together to solve election fraud issues.

The issues they’re most concerned about are fake registrations and too many registrations. Oh. Well, that doesn’t sound like

Post turtle

25 Thursday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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Tags

McSame, post turtle, Sarah Palin

This e-mail is making the rounds. One similar to it referring to dubya has been around a few times, too.

…While suturing a cut on the hand of a 75-year old Texas rancher whose hand was caught in a gate while working cattle, the doctor struck up a conversation with the old man.  Eventually the topic got around to Sarah Palin and her bid to be a heartbeat away from being President.  The old rancher said, “Well, ya know, Palin is a post turtle.”  Not being familiar with the term, the doctor asked him what a post turtle was.  The old rancher said, “When you’re driving down a country road and you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that’s a post turtle.”

The old rancher saw a puzzled look on the doctor’s face, so he continued to explain.  “You know she didn’t get up there by herself, she doesn’t belong up there, she doesn’t know what to do while she is up there, and you just wonder what kind of dumb ass put her up there to begin with.”

Hat tip to Blue Girl at They gave us a republic…

Yep, a post turtle. That’s the republican way.

Shiny baubles!

24 Wednesday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 5 Comments

Tags

distraction, McCain, McSame, media criticism

Can you spell “g-i-m-m-i-c-k”?

I wonder if this…

McCain suspends campaign, calls for Obama to do same

NEW YORK (CNN) — Republican presidential candidate John McCain announced Wednesday that he is suspending his campaign to return to Washington and focus on the “historic” crisis facing the U.S. economy….

…is because of this?:

New York Times

McCain Aide’s Firm Was Paid by Freddie Mac

By JACKIE CALMES and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK

Published: September 23, 2008

WASHINGTON – One of the giant mortgage companies at the heart of the credit crisis paid $15,000 a month from the end of 2005 through last month to a firm owned by Senator John McCain’s campaign manager, according to two people with direct knowledge of the arrangement…

tiny URL

Ahem. You think?

Of course, the cable network boviators and gasping are fawning over the “breaking news”.

Gimmick. I’m not the only one who thinks so:

MyDD

…Sen. Reid as quoted on CNN said the debate should go on and is framing postponing the debate and having the pres candidates return to Washington as “injecting presidential politics” into the process. Good…

Open Left

…So, McCain moves to upstage Obama after Obama made the first “bi-partisan” move. Several things to learn from this. First, trust McCain, and get a fork in your eye. Second, why on Earth was Obama looking to remove the contrast between himself and McCain on this issue? Third, McCain is crazy out of control. He will do anything crazy if it is perceived as helping him, no matter how ludicrous it actually is (such as, say, picking Palin as VP.) What an incredibly dangerous President this guy would be….

dday and Digby

…I actually think this is pretty savvy. He doesn’t want to give the country a chance to see the two of them together right now and make the logical comparisons. He also wants to show that he can “take charge” in a crisis and the optics of this are that he’s rushing back to to Washington to knock some heads together.

But, this is the second time in a month that McCain has grandstanded like this. First it was “suspending” the convention because of the hurricane and now this. At some point, someone should point out that leadership requires something more than canceling events and posturing for the cameras.

I would love to see Obama say that he agrees to go back to Washington and hold the debate on the floor of the senate — about the economy…

So, Senator McCain, why haven’t you fired Rick Davis?

As for our useless media: “Ooh, look! There goes another shiny bauble!”

Another empty storefront courtesy of republican economic policies

24 Wednesday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Unintentional irony

An empty storefront serving as a republican sign repository on Holden Street across from the Johnson County Democratic Party headquarters in Warrensburg. This is ironic on so many levels. The “Farmers for Hulshof” sign is priceless. Shouldn’t that be up at a farm somewhere?

A chance to scare the b'jesus out of Republicans

24 Wednesday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 7 Comments

Tags

missouri, Obama registration drive

Michael Bersin’s lead paragraph yesterday is also the lead for this posting:

Eleven years ago I attended campaign management school. The lead instructor said, “Now, I’m going to talk about yard signs.” Everyone in the room eagerly leaned forward in anticipation of his wisdom about the proper mix of yard signs to 4 x 8s and their priority in the campaign budget. The instructor continued, “You only get enough yard signs so that you can plant them between your candidate’s home and their place of work. That way they think their signs are everywhere.”

The Obama campaign is putting its money (and time and effort) where that campaign instructor’s mouth was. They are forgoing signs and bumper stickers in favor of real work. I can live with that. I can even do some of the work.

The campaign’s final hard push to register voters is in its last two weeks now. (Registration ends on October 8th.) Last week alone, St. Louis area Obama supporters exceeded their goal of registering 2400 new voters and managed to sign up 3,492. And they’re serious about getting those cards to the proper authorities tout de suite. If you hand a blank registration card (available from any Obama office) to a voter and get him to fill it in, the office wants that card back no later than the next day. No later. And they will hand deliver the cards to the election board. They’re not trusting the U.S. Postal Service to deliver them to the right place and get them there quickly enough. These cards represent people’s precious right to vote, and they are guarded with care.

So much for the past. Now for this week, or what’s left of it. The campaign in Missouri is preparing to knock on the doors of 100,000 unregistered citizens in one day, this Saturday. The St. Louis Metro region alone is aiming to knock on 50,000 doors that day. They need your help. If you want to do a shift of door knocking on Saturday, great. Or if you want to help keep one of the offices organized that day, just offer. If you want to help get packets organized before Saturday, you’ll be greeted with hugs and kisses.  

But do something. To help, go here and find a handy neighborhood Obama office that’s waiting to give you a job. Do it now. Because Saturday is upon us.

Be part of the solution, not part of the problem. To quote Michael quoting FiveThirtyEight:

…A lot of people aren’t going to like hearing this truth, but organizers recognize that the majority of people who walk into offices for yard signs are, for volunteering purposes – and this is a technical term – useless. In the majority, these people are not going to knock, they’re not going to make phone calls. Instead, they are going to throw the organizer’s incredibly precious, sleep-deprived time down a bottomless abyss of irretrievability.

That sleep-deprived organizer isn’t wasting his time on signs this week. He’s revving up for this Saturday, and he needs you. Here’s your chance to scare the b’jesus out of Republicans: go register people.

McSame campaign: "Ruh-roh"

24 Wednesday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Freddie Mac, McCain, McSame, Rick Davis

It’d be very interesting to be a fly on the wall today at the McSame campaign damage control bunker:

Uh yeah, saying “I didn’t do any work for that $15,0000.00 a month” doesn’t look so good.  

Marty Ott: a pioneer lady

23 Tuesday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Marty Ott, missouri

Howard Dean would respect Martha Ott: she is tackling a Republican candidate in his lair. HD 86 in West St. Louis County is Republican turf, as Marty well knows, having run against Jane Cunningham there in ’06 and lost by 43.7 percent to Cunningham’s 56.3 percent. This cycle, Cunningham is running for state senate, so the incumbency advantage is gone, but the Republican taking her place is still a tough nut to crack. Cole McNary is the son of Gene McNary, long time St. Louis County Executive Director.

So Marty’s up against it out there, but Dean would say that she’s building the base in red territory, same as he’s been doing with his fifty state plan for the last three years as DNC chairman. As she goes door to door–four hours the day before I talked to her–she finds she has name recognition from her last time around and supporters who tell her how happy they are that she’s running again.  

Naturally, McNary has more money than Marty, but she husbands her resources wisely. Instead of sending elaborate mailers, she sends postcards. The brief messages on them keep her name in front of voters without requiring them to read more than they’re likely to anyway.

Most of all, she treks from one door to the next, pioneering, not in red Injun territory, just in red territory. And she’s seeing changes. She says that in 2000, she helped with Ted House’s campaign against Todd Akin, but she wouldn’t put a sign in her yard because she figured that all her neighbors were probably Republican. Not only did she not see a Democratic sign in her subdivision, she doesn’t remember seeing any in the 86th district that year.

Then, in 2002 when Jean Carnahan was running, Marty saw somebody in her subdivision with a sign for Carnahan and figured if they can do it, so can I. Soon after she put her sign up, a neighbor asked her if she had any more of them. She gave that woman her sign and got another. And that’s how Democrats began showing their face in West County.

In 2004, they were still weak. A few signs appeared, but she couldn’t get anyone to help her go door to door for Kerry. And there was no one to run against Jane Cunningham. So Marty pioneered that territory in 2006. (Some might say she got trounced for her trouble, but that would only be if they didn’t know the history of the district. Cunningham has run four times and won by these percentages: 2000–100 percent; 2002–70.5 percent; 2004–100 percent. So getting her down to 56.3 percent was an accomplishment.)

This year, Marty is agog at the activity: she has attended six Obama houseparties, all in the 86th, a phenomenon she’s never seen there  before. And she’s back challenging the Republicans in hopes of closing the gap, or if not that, at least narrowing it.

Whichever outcome she gets, she’s done Democrats a service. By challenging McNary, she forces Republicans to put money and energy into that district that would otherwise be diverted to a tighter race elsewhere. And she’s building the base.

Thank you, Marty, for taking on a tough task. You don’t drive a Conestoga, but I can picture you in a sunbonnet.

Feel free to help her out.

Blaine Luetkemeyer Breaks Federal Law

23 Tuesday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Blaine Luetkemeyer, Judy Baker, missouri, Ninth COngressional district

Whoops! This could potentially cost Luetkemeyer hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Columbia, MO – Blaine Luetkemeyer broke federal laws instituted by the

Federal Communications Commission (FCC) with a television

advertisement that distorted his opponent’s record. The violations

mean that for the rest of the campaign the Luetkemeyer camp should not

be eligible for discounted advertising rates given to candidates that

follow federal law.

“Blaine Luetkemeyer will say anything and break any law to get

elected. He is part of the old politics that just hurts Missouri

families by dividing us,” said Paul Tencher, spokesman for the Baker

campaign. “These violations are serious because they are laws created

specifically to let voters know Mr. Luetkemeyer is responsible for the

negative campaign tactics he has used to distort Judy’s record and

distract voters from the real issues. If he is so proud of his gutter

advertising he should follow the law and put his name on them.”

According to FCC law, a television advertisement sponsored by a

candidate and that makes direct reference to an opponent during the 45-

or 60-day windows must include, at the end of the broadcast,

simultaneously, and for at least four seconds:

•    A clearly identifiable photographic or similar image of the

candidate; and

•    A clearly readable printed statement identifying the candidate

and stating that the candidate has approved the broadcast and that the

candidate’s authorized committee has paid for it.

The Baker campaign will now take legal action to have television

stations that aired the broadcasts enforce the law and repeal the

Luetkemeyer campaign’s certification for the discounted advertising

rates. A copy of the letter sent to every television station in the

Ninth District is attached to this release.

Signs, signs, everywhere signs

22 Monday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 11 Comments

Tags

signs

Eleven years ago I attended campaign management school. The lead instructor said, “Now, I’m going to talk about yard signs.” Everyone in the room eagerly leaned forward in anticipation of his wisdom about the proper mix of yard signs to 4 x 8s and their priority in the campaign budget. The instructor continued, “You only get enough yard signs so that you can plant them between your candidate’s home and their place of work. That way they think their signs are everywhere.”

In 2000 I saw the crosstabs in a poll which asked people why they were supporting a particular candidate. A significant, but not large, number of respondents liked the candidate’s legislative record and views. Others were convinced by the campaign’s mail pieces. Less than 1% were convinced by the yard signs. 7% liked his television commercials. The candidate didn’t run any television commercials. He did have yard signs.

Uh, that Obama yard sign in your yard? It wasn’t provided by Obama’s campaign. It was ordered, bought and paid for by someone like you in your local Democratic Party who wanted one in their yard.

BREAKING: Obama Campaign Organizers Trying To Win Election Instead of Get You Yard Signs

In a controversial move sure to upset millions of people, Barack Obama’s campaign has decided to forgo the traditional time-wasting distribution of chum (yard signs, bumper stickers, etc.) to try and win the election.

Settling on what they call a “get voters to register by approaching them on the phone and at the door with an army of volunteers” strategy, Obama’s senior staff has directed state, regional, and local field organizers to use their finite time to make tangible progress toward winning.

It’s an approach that has ruffled some Democratic feathers…

Yard signs are in your yard because they make you feel good. Or, if you’re like me and a big fan of signage for the purpose of insult, you plant them in your yard to upset your neighbors.

…A lot of people aren’t going to like hearing this truth, but organizers recognize that the majority of people who walk into offices for yard signs are, for volunteering purposes – and this is a technical term – useless. In the majority, these people are not going to knock, they’re not going to make phone calls. Instead, they are going to throw the organizer’s incredibly precious, sleep-deprived time down a bottomless abyss of irretrievability.

People who plant yard signs are maybe going to make their neighbors aware that they support a particular candidate, and in theory, if they live near voters who cede their opinions to peer pressure, they could theoretically be shading the influence of a vote here or there.

Here’s a little secret: there will always be exceptions, but people who spend a lot of time volunteering in campaign offices tend to get yard signs. Organizers know and love these people dearly, and they take care of them…

Go. Read the whole thing.

That being said, the most legal fun you can have in a campaign is planting 4 x 8s, 4 x 6s, or 4 x 4s in highly visible places. But that doesn’t win the campaign. And it takes a lot of time and resources.

The death of a campaign sign is not a pretty thing. It’s also expensive.

All better now. Have zip ties, will travel.

In 2000 I spent an inordinate amount of time pasting billboard stock paper printed with the candidate’s logo and name on to 4 x 8 plywood framed by two by fours. It’s a skill that I’m glad I got to develop, especially since the economy appears to be headed for a total collapse. But, I digress.

Old timers talk about wiring plywood signs to steel fence posts. Today we still have the fence posts, but the signs are corrugated plastic and we use cable (“zip”) ties to affix the signs to the post. Other tools you need are a vehicle or trailer large enough to carry the signs and posts, a post driver, ear plugs (see previous tool), cutting tools (to clip the cable ties), a screw driver (to poke holes in the sign as needed), and water. It’s all about being more efficient.

Have you noticed that very few candidates put their pictures on their signs? Creative vandals do interesting things to those images.

You have to get permission to place a sign on someone’s property.

I once called the local gendarmes to report a sign theft. “Hello. I’d like to report the theft of a four foot by eight foot Kerry/Edwards campaign sign from the lot near the high school.” “Could you describe it?” “Uh, it’s four feet by eight feet. It’s red, white, and blue and it says ‘Kerry/Edwards’ on it.”

Fifteen or so signs later, we finish putting the last signs up in what was a very long day. The average age of our crew was 57.

Yeah, those big signs are fun. The yard signs make us feel better. They really don’t win elections. They take an inordinate amount of time and money, relative to their worth, from campaigns.

It’s far better for a campaign to spend their money on voter identification and getting their voters to the polls on election day. Far better. That and direct mail.

A while back a gentleman walked into our local headquarters and asked that we place a 4 x 8 Obama/Biden sign on his property. I told him that we didn’t have any and that the national campaign doesn’t provide such. He replied that in 2004 he got a Kerry/Edwards 4 x 8. I explained that our county committee bought those in bulk with a nearby county. We ended up paying twenty five dollars apiece, only to watch them get vandalized (but they sure were fun to put up). He was upset that we didn’t have any. Really upset. “It’s about marketing and getting your name out there.” I told him we’d take his information down and we’d give him a call if 4 x 8s came in. He didn’t want to give the information out “because then the campaign would keep calling him.” He left headquarters as an unhappy camper in a huff.

I just heard that the county committee bought ten Obama/Biden 4 x 8s. I’ll probably end up helping to put them all up. And he ain’t getting one. It’ll be fun, but I really should be doing something much more productive – like making phone calls and going door to door.  

MO PVI: Is this anything?

22 Monday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 4 Comments

(This seems more like RBH and Michael’s thing than mine, but worthy of discussion. – promoted by Clark)

In thinking about the way politics are reported in this state, I realized that there was no shorthand way to refer to the relative partisan leanings of one county versus another.  Sure, anybody that follows Missouri politics knows that Jackson county is Democratic and Greene county is Republican, but what about the other 113 counties in the State?  And can’t we get more precise than that?

This issue led me to spend some time tabulating what I am calling a “MO PVI” for each county.  The MO PVI is based off Charlie Cook’s “Cook PVI” to describe the relative partisan leanings of each Congressional House District in the country.  Explanation and analysis is below the jump.

The great thing about the Cook PVI is that it gives a single number and lets you make a quick and dirty comparison of the relative partisan leanings of each house district.  I assume everyone is familiar with what Cook PVI is and how it is calculated.  Click here for a primer on the concept.

That’s all well and good for folks following federal elections, but what about a similar concept for state-level elections?  Currently, the closest thing you hear mentioned to a PVI is a certain state legislative district’s Democratic Performance.  This number, expressed as a percentage of the vote (i.e. 48%, 51%, 38%, etc.) is roughly a calculation of the percent of the generic Democratic vote of that district.  This is useful information, but there are limitations to this number:

1. As far as I know, this info isn’t really public.

2. Often, statewide campaigns run by non-credible candidates are included in the calculation (think Mitch Hubbard v. Robin Carnahan), which can result in a skew against whatever party put up the non-credible candidate.

3. The numbers themselves don’t give much information regarding the relative partisan leanings of the house district.

In my humble attempt to remedy this lack of information, I present to all of you the MO PVI for each county in Missouri.  As you can see from this spreadsheet, I have taken the difference in vote percentage between the Republicans and Democrats for the 2000 and 2004 Governor elections, compared that number for each of the elections to the statewide results, and then averaged the two to come up with the PVI.  Some observations:

1) The 2000 governor’s election seems to have been from a different era.  Holden won many outstate counties, while Talent almost won in St. Louis County.  I can’t even comprehend how that could happen today.

2) Partisanship drastically increased from 2000 to 2004.  The Republican counties, on average, got much more Republican, and vice versa for Democratic counties.

3) This is pretty obvious, but Missouri is in a rather unique situation where the last three gubernatorial elections will all be open contests with no incumbents running in the general election.  This probably makes the numbers a little more “true,” as it gets rid of any incumbent effect.

4) Here are the top ten Democratic counties in the State, according to MO PVI:

    St. Louis City D+55.4

    Kansas City*   D+47.1

    Pemiscot       D+20.1

    New Madrid     D+11.0

    Ray            D+10.2

    Saline         D+9.9

    Mississippi    D+9.3

    Boone          D+7.5

    StL County     D+7.0

    Clay County    D+5.9

*Kansas City reports its election results separately from Jackson County, which is why it is treated separately here.

Nothing too shocking here, although I was surprised to see the Bootheel trio so high.  I wouldn’t have figured Saline so high, either, which is probably explained by an inordinate amount of love they had for Bob Holden.

5) Top ten Republican counties:

    Barton     R+49.7

    Newton     R+41.7

    Jasper     R+40.4

    McDonald   R+39.8

    Putnam     R+39.4

    Dade       R+34.6

    Wright     R+34.5

    Mercer     R+34.4

    Douglas    R+34.3

    Taney      R+29.9

Welcome to southwest Missouri, with a little North Central thrown in to keep things interesting.

6) I also included a “trend” column to see where we are losing strength.  Here are the counties that lost the highest percentage of Democratic vote from 2000 to 2004:

    Clark    -37.3% Democratic loss

    Lewis    -30.4

    Marion   -30.3

    Scotland -30.0

    Monroe   -27.4

    Shelby   -27.0

    Ralls    -25.2

What the hell happened to all the Democrats in Northeast MO in just four years?!  Have we found them yet?

Here’s where the Dems picked up the most, percentage wise, from 2000 to 2004:

    KC       +16.9

    Grundy   +16.2

    Perry    +15.2

    StL Co.  +13.2

    St. Chas +9.6

    StL City +9.4

    Platte   +8.3

Looks like increased strength in the cities and suburbia, with two rural outliers thrown in.

Does this add to the political discourse?  I don’t know, but I thought it was interesting enough to spend some time on it today.  I’ll leave it up to you all to determine if “this is anything,” as Letterman might say.  I’d be especially interested in hearing about any errors I made.  Most of these numbers “feel” right to me, but outside of KC and NW Mo my knowledge is limited.  If, however, this is something that has been done already, I do not want anybody to mention it, because I have spent too much damn time on this today for it all to be for naught.

If somebody out there is good with maps, it would be cool to see this data in that format.

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