She’s up by 4 in the latest poll.

Whoops! This could potentially cost Luetkemeyer hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Columbia, MO – Blaine Luetkemeyer broke federal laws instituted by the

Federal Communications Commission (FCC) with a television

advertisement that distorted his opponent’s record. The violations

mean that for the rest of the campaign the Luetkemeyer camp should not

be eligible for discounted advertising rates given to candidates that

follow federal law.

“Blaine Luetkemeyer will say anything and break any law to get

elected. He is part of the old politics that just hurts Missouri

families by dividing us,” said Paul Tencher, spokesman for the Baker

campaign. “These violations are serious because they are laws created

specifically to let voters know Mr. Luetkemeyer is responsible for the

negative campaign tactics he has used to distort Judy’s record and

distract voters from the real issues. If he is so proud of his gutter

advertising he should follow the law and put his name on them.”

According to FCC law, a television advertisement sponsored by a

candidate and that makes direct reference to an opponent during the 45-

or 60-day windows must include, at the end of the broadcast,

simultaneously, and for at least four seconds:

•    A clearly identifiable photographic or similar image of the

candidate; and

•    A clearly readable printed statement identifying the candidate

and stating that the candidate has approved the broadcast and that the

candidate’s authorized committee has paid for it.

The Baker campaign will now take legal action to have television

stations that aired the broadcasts enforce the law and repeal the

Luetkemeyer campaign’s certification for the discounted advertising

rates. A copy of the letter sent to every television station in the

Ninth District is attached to this release.

Blaine Luetkemeyer can’t answer a simple question from a reporter:

When asked whether he supported allowing the Medicare program to negotiate with prescription drug companies, Luetkemeyer’s campaign sent out a release criticizing Baker for voting against a push last year to strip away taxes on Social Security benefits.

“I believe that the hard-working people of the 9th Congressional District especially our seniors should be allowed to keep more money in their pockets rather than turn it over to Judy Baker’s liberal friends in Congress with a knack for funding pork barrel projects,” Luetkemeyer said in a statement. “There is a clear contrast between my dedication to fiscal responsibility and Judy Baker’s tax-and-spend approach to government including her unwillingness to give Missouri seniors a tax break.”

So we still don’t know where Luetkemeyer stands on making prescription drugs more affordable. We do know that Luetkemeyer stands for “fiscal responsibility”, which apparently means giving away billions to pharmaceutical companies.

Let’s back up a second. In a time when all Americans, particularly the elderly, face rapidly rising health care costs, and the federal budget deficit spirals out of control, you’d think candidates for federal office would get behind commonsense solutions that tackle both problems at the same time. In the race for the 9th Congressional District, Judy Baker is the only candidate who’s taking on this challenge.

In 2002, Pharmaceutical companies managed to extract a major concession from Congress in the massive legislative wrangling over the addition of prescription drug coverage to Medicare. The federal government would subsidize the cost of prescription drugs for seniors, but would not be permitted to use the power of bulk purchasing to negotiate the price of the drugs. Which is insane. It’s the only part of the government restrained from doing just that (the VA actually negotiates prices for prescription drugs for veterans), and private companies from insurance firms to Wal-Mart negotiate lower prices using the size of their purchases. Wal Mart even does it for prescription drugs for its pharmacies.

Negotiating for lower prescription drug prices could save consumers (and the federal budget) billions of dollars, which is especially relevant at a time when the economy is stagnating and the federal deficit is over $400 billion a year. But Luetkemeyer seems to think that bleating “fiscal responsibility” over and over again and closing his ears will get us past the problem.

My guess is that he’ll keep silent, because there’s no way he can win a debate with a health care expert like Judy Baker.

Judy Baker has an excellent new ad on the air right now. I know us bloggers generally like unconventional ads, but for a conventional ad, this one is just about perfect.

“Ils sont partis! (And they’re off!)” Those are the words that the Cajun announcers of my youth would cry out at the race track as the horses left the gate. Now it’s the voice that rang out in my head when I read this first general election matchup poll between Judy Baker (D-Columbia) and Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth) for Missouri’s Ninth Congressional District. Archpundit can vouch for the pollster, having worked with them on Jeff Smith’s 2006 run for State Senate.

Judy has a much stronger foundation for this campaign, according to the pollster. Both had contentious primaries, but only Judy escaped relatively unscathed. Among those who know the candidates, 30% had a favorable opinion of Judy, while only 8% had an unfavorable opinion. By contrast, Luetkemeyer had a favorably rating of 33% and unfavorables at 16%. Baker also has positive favorability ratings with both GOP men and women, while Luetkemeyer is in the negative with Democrats who know him.

Now, this is huge. Ever since outgoing incumbent Kenny Hulshof narrowly defeated Harold Volkmer in 1996 to win the 9th District seat, he’s won big over every single Democrat who has challenged him. The only Democrat to keep him under 60% was Steve Carroll in 2000, keeping the margin of victory to a scant 21%. For Baker to be leading at this point gives me a lot of hope.

The other thing that gives me hope is that Judy has comparable cash on hand to her opponent, and the DCCC has more cash to spread around – and fewer seats to target – than their Republican counterparts. Judy should have enough money to remain competitive through Election Day, as long as supporters like you continue to help out, of course.

Another thing that popped out in looking at the historical data – Hulshof never lost Boone County. In 2006, a big Democratic year nationwide, Hulshof carried Boone County over Burghard by over 12,000 votes. Does anyone think that Baker will lose Boone to Luetkemeyer? Winning Boone County will be key in keeping the margin close, but Judy has got to replicate her success in rural areas during the primary to win in the general.

The full memo is below the fold.

To:      Baker for Congress

From: Margie Omero

           Momentum Analysis

Re:      Recent polling in MO-9

Date:  August 20, 2008

In the August 5 primary, Judy Baker emerged with both a larger vote total and a larger vote percentage than Blaine Luetkemeyer.  Our recent, post-primary polling confirms Baker’s strength. She is more popular among those who know her, and has a 2-point lead over her opponent.

Baker is more popular than Luetkemeyer among those who know each

Despite negative attacks from her opponents in the primary, far more voters are favorable toward Baker (30%) than unfavorable (8%).  Four times as many have a “very favorable” impression as have a “very unfavorable” one (12%, 3%, respectively).  Even Republicans are more likely to be favorable than favorable than unfavorable (Republican women: 13% favorable, 8% unfavorable; Republican men: 17% favorable, 15% unfavorable).

fav

unfav

Baker – overall

30

8

Luetkemeyer – overall

33

16

Baker – GOP women

13

8

Baker – GOP men

17

15

Luetkemeyer – Dem women

20

23

Luetkemeyer – Dem men

17

34

By contrast, Blaine Luetkemeyer’s negative primary took a toll.  His favorables are comparable to Baker’s, but his unfavorables are twice as high (33% favorable, 16% unfavorable).  Not even twice as many have a “very favorable” impression as have a “very unfavorable” (11%, 7%, respectively).  And unlike Baker, he is unpopular with voter outside his own party, particularly with Democratic men.

Baker leads Luetkemeyer

This advantage in popularity translates into an advantage in the vote.  Without any candidate messaging, Baker leads

Luetkemeyer (41% Baker, 39% Luetkemeyer, 3% Millay, 16% undecided).  Baker leads among women (45% Baker, 36% Luetkemeyer), and does better with Democrats (78% Baker, 12% Luetkemeyer) than Luetkemeyer does with Republicans (14% Baker, 66% Luetkemeyer).

Judy Baker begins the general election strong from her competitive primary win.  She leads Luetkemeyer before the campaigns have engaged on issues such as health care for seniors, women, kids, and newborns.  With adequate resources, Baker can continue to expand her lead, and turn this seat from Red to Blue in November.

This memo is based on a survey of 400 general election voters in Missouri’s 9th CD.  A voter file sample was used, and respondents were further screened for likely November 2008 voters.  Interviews were conducted by telephone, August 12-14, 2008.  The margin of error for the survey overall is +/- 4.9%.  The margin of error for subgroups is larger.