Shortly after telling Hotmail that e-mails from the Page campaign weren’t junk mail, I was able to lay my eyes on this poll conducted for Page by Global Strategy Group.
So let’s take a look at some of the internals.. First, the question
The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are [ROTATE ORDER OF READING] Sam Page, the Democrat, Peter Kinder, the Republican, Teddy Fleck, the Libertarian, AND James Rensing, the Constitution party candidate. If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
[IF UNDECIDED] Well, which one would you lean toward supporting if the election were held today?
Kinder leads with White voters 43-30. Page leads with African-Americans 85-3.
Page leads amongst Democrats 85 to 0. Kinder leads amongst Republicans 81 to 2. So basically Republicans like the Republican, Democrats love the Democrat.
And Kinder leads amongst Independents 23 to 12 with 8% picking for Fleck or Rensing (the grand ol’ protest vote)
Yes, 57% of Independents were undecided there.
So in other words, it’s a horserace.
On doing some spreadsheeting, it looks like a 41D/40R/19I sort of sample.
Essentially polls can be divided a few ways. Some polls will let you waver between options, and a few will basically push you kicking or screaming one way or another.
When you consider that a lot of people probably haven’t seen a Sam Page ad, and that it’s downballot. This is a good sign. I’d imagine the usual protest vote (2%ish at least) will come out. And if so many independents are so undecided, then.. that’ll be the gamemaker.