Tonight for the Missouri Democratic Party there were ward and county mass meetings to select delegates to congressional district meetings at the end of this month and the state Democratic Party convention in June. The delegates elected across the state tonight will eventually vote for delegates to the national convention.

The allocations for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders delegates to the national convention have been made based on the vote in the primary. That distribution will not change over the length of the process. At the congressional district and state party convention levels Hillary and Bernie county level delegates will only vote for those individuals running for national delegates for their respective candidates. However, all state convention delegates will vote for Missouri’s members of the Democratic National Committee. Hold that thought.

Signing in at the county mass meeting – the first step in the Missouri Democratic Party national convention delegate selection process.

In Johnson County registered voters who voted in the primary started showing up at the mass meeting site at around 6:30 p.m. If an individual wanted to participate in the process they needed to be in the door by 7:30 p.m. By that deadline twenty-two individuals eligible to participate showed up and signed in. Twenty-two. Hold that thought.

The allocation of the total number of county level delegates is based on previous general election results in voting for the Democratic Party candidates for president and governor. Johnson County was allocated ten delegates and ten alternates to the congressional district meeting and the state party convention. Do the math. Twenty-two people, and a total of twenty delegate/alternate slots.

Further, the allocation of Hillary and Bernie local delegates from that number is based on the congressional district vote in the primary, with a 15% minimum threshold. For Johnson County that meant six delegates/six alternates for Bernie Sanders and four delegates/four alternates for Hillary Clinton. Democratic Party rules call for a strict distribution of 50% female/50% male delegates at all levels.

In practice, the odds are fairly good that a county alternate will end up being seated as a voting delegate at the congressional district meeting and the state convention. There is always attrition of delegates because of health, travel issues, etc. It’s important that those alternate slots are filled and that the alternates show up at the subsequent congressional district meeting and the state convention.

The Hillary Clinton caucus at the Johnson County Democratic Party mass meeting.

If your revolution is intent on taking over the party you’re going to have to understand the rules in place at the time of your attempted takeover. Also, it helps to show up.

One of those in attendance at the Johnson County mass meeting reported to us that another of their local friends, a supporter of Bernie Sanders, put out a call via social media for Bernie supporters to show up at the Johnson County mass meeting – informing them that if Hillary supporters didn’t show up they could take over those delegate and alternate slots allocated to Hillary. It doesn’t quite work that way. When you show up to the mass meeting you fill out and sign a Form B, pledging your support to one candidate or the other. It may be possible to flip delegate allocations in other states – that’s not exactly the case in Missouri.

Oh, and if you’re going to throw a revolution you need to show up.

Of the twenty-two people eligible to participate in the process in Johnson County this evening fourteen caucused for Hillary Clinton and eight caucused for Bernie Sanders. The Hillary Clinton caucus filled all of its delegate and alternate slots (eight). It was impossible for the Bernie Sanders caucus to fill all of its delegate and alternate slots (twelve).

If this is the state of the Bernie Sanders revolution across the state what do you think the chances are of a takeover of the state party or of flipping Missouri’s representatives on the Democratic National Committee?

I am not impressed.

Previously:

Keep Calm and Carry On – part 2 (March 16, 2016)

Hillary Clinton [2014 file photo].

As it stands to date (via RealClearPolitics):

2016 Democratic Popular Vote
RCP Total – Clinton 8,651,128 Sanders 6,111,918 Clinton +2,539,210

[emphasis added]

Election 2016 — Democratic Delegate Count
Delegates Won – [Total available – pledged] 4051 Clinton 1119 Sanders 813
Superdelegates – (712) Clinton 467 Sanders 26

[emphasis added]

In Slate:

How Hillary Clinton Keeps Winning
Obama beat her with the same strategy she’s using to pull away from Bernie Sanders.
By Jamelle Bouie

….Clinton still has a long slog to the nomination—it takes time to accumulate the delegates she needs—but it’s a clear one, without major obstacles. In a sense, she and her team have reverse-engineered Obama’s 2008 effort, bringing “establishment” resources—huge fundraising and tremendous party support—to bear on an insurgent-style campaign that focused on voter contacts and organizing instead of paid media and massive events….

If you attend a rally for the opposition party’s leading candidate and get punched in the face it doesn’t qualify as a particular effective get out the vote activity for your candidate. I suspect that it works quite well for the opposition candidate.

“…that focused on voter contacts and organizing instead of paid media and massive events…”

Exactly this.

In a world where t-shirts, bumper stickers, and campaign rallies are a lot of fun the real work gets done by those who try to persuade actual voters by knocking on doors and staffing phone banks. And come election day you drag your voters to the polls.

Previously:

Keep Calm and Carry On (March 9, 2016)

Keep Calm and Carry On – part 2 (March 16, 2016)

So, Missouri had a presidential primary yesterday. The unofficial results:

State of Missouri – Presidential Preference Primary – March 15, 2016
Unofficial Results
as of 3/16/2016 7:25:44 AM

U.S. President 3041 of 3041 Precincts Reported

Hillary Clinton Democratic 310,602 49.611%
[….]
Bernie Sanders Democratic 309,071 49.366%
[….]
Uncommitted Democratic 3,702 0.591%
Party Total: 626,075

[….]
Donald J. Trump Republican 382,093 40.831%
Marco Rubio Republican 57,006 6.092%
Ted Cruz Republican 380,367 40.646%
[….]
John R. Kasich Republican 94,533 10.102%
[….]
Party Total: 935,794

[emphasis added]

Hillary Clinton (D) swept all five states, but it’s really about the delegates. She had a really good night in that respect, too.

Donald Trump (r) had a very good night. Marco Rubio (r) not so much.

Someone won the Internets last night:

Florida Man ‏@_FloridaMan
Now, I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.
[….] 6:24 PM – 15 Mar 2016

Elections and voting matter.

Previously:

Keep Calm and Carry On (March 9, 2016)

It ain’t over till it’s over.

Hillary Clinton [2014 file photo] and Bernie Sanders [2016 file photo].

At 538:

What The Stunning Bernie Sanders Win In Michigan Means
By Harry Enten

….Sanders must rack up big wins, and fast. Thanks to an 83 percent to 16 percent win in Mississippi, Clinton gained in the overall delegate count on Tuesday and leads Sanders by more than 200 pledged delegates. Her strong performance in Mississippi also put Sanders further behind….That may not be as sexy as the tremendous upset in Michigan, but math is rarely sexy….

Winning the nomination isn’t about winning a state (though it can help) or leading (or not leading) in a national poll. It’s about amassing delegates. You amass delegates by winning big in big states and/or keep on winning in a large number of medium size and small states – based on the results the Democratic Party proportionally allocates pledged delegates to candidates with a minimum 15% threshold. A candidate does not overcome a lead of 200 pledged delegates by fighting the leader to a rough draw in a big state primary. Especially if they get pasted in another primary on the same day.

Old media, amateurs, and first time true believers might believe in momentum. It could happen, but momentum is more than fighting to a draw.

The candidates have gone on to the next states. Their campaigns will make adjustments. Complacent supporters may or not wake up and decide to show up. Irresistible force will meet immoveable object. If that continues to happen everywhere the end result will be the same – one candidate will still have a 200 pledged delegate lead. This could change, it probably won’t. That doesn’t mean it can’t.

In the absence of a significant groundswell toward Bernie Sanders in the large population states to come – that means he has to paste Hillary Clinton by huge margins – the current status of the leader and second place in a race of two won’t change significantly.

So, partisans, fight the good fight. Work for your candidate. Go door to door. Man those phone banks. Don’t forget to show up and vote. Put a dent in the universe. Be nice to each other. Keep calm and carry on, for the real darkness awaits you in November.

Previously:

Empty fields and empty lots don’t vote, cable news networks don’t do math (March 6, 2016)

Math is hard.

This from CNN:

Dianna Heitz ‏@diannaheitz
The #SuperSaturday totals:
Trump 2
Cruz 2
Sanders 2
Clinton 1
http://cnn.com/election
[….]
9:55 PM – 5 Mar 2016

Here’s the easy math. The vote totals:

State Date Clinton Sanders Spread
Louisiana March 5 221,615 72,240 Clinton +149,375
Nebraska March 5 14,234 18,940 Sanders +4,706
Kansas March 5 12,593 26,450 Sanders +13,857

Across the three states Hillary Clinton received 130,812 more votes. The Democratic Party proportionally allocates delegates with a minimum 15% threshold. The estimated delegate allocation from March 5th:

State Date Delegates Clinton Sanders Delegate Allocation Open/Closed
Louisiana March 5 51 (8) 35 12 Primary Closed
Nebraska March 5 25 (5) 10 14 Caucus Closed
Kansas March 5 33 (4) 10 23 Caucus Closed

[emphasis added]

Hillary Clinton (probably) picked up 55 pledged delegates yesterday. Bernie Sanders probably picked up 49 pledged delegates yesterday.

Do the math. Winning close or winning relatively big in a small population state with a proportionally smaller number of delegates is nice. Winning big in a large population state with a proportionally larger number of delegates is really nice.

Gee, you think all that “complexity” is just too undemocratic? Think again:

[National to date] Clinton Sanders Spread
Total [popular vote to date] 4,180,747 2,659,074 Clinton +1,521,673

[emphasis added]

Go figure, a candidate who gets more votes gets more delegates. Math is not hard, empty fields and empty lots don’t vote.

Play the iPhone recording of his speech. Click above.

Bernie Sanders fills Bartle Hall, standing room only, on February 24, 2016.

Photos: Jerry Schmidt