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It ain’t over till it’s over.

Hillary Clinton [2014 file photo] and Bernie Sanders [2016 file photo].

Hillary Clinton [2014 file photo] and Bernie Sanders [2016 file photo].

At 538:

What The Stunning Bernie Sanders Win In Michigan Means
By Harry Enten

….Sanders must rack up big wins, and fast. Thanks to an 83 percent to 16 percent win in Mississippi, Clinton gained in the overall delegate count on Tuesday and leads Sanders by more than 200 pledged delegates. Her strong performance in Mississippi also put Sanders further behind….That may not be as sexy as the tremendous upset in Michigan, but math is rarely sexy….

Winning the nomination isn’t about winning a state (though it can help) or leading (or not leading) in a national poll. It’s about amassing delegates. You amass delegates by winning big in big states and/or keep on winning in a large number of medium size and small states – based on the results the Democratic Party proportionally allocates pledged delegates to candidates with a minimum 15% threshold. A candidate does not overcome a lead of 200 pledged delegates by fighting the leader to a rough draw in a big state primary. Especially if they get pasted in another primary on the same day.

Old media, amateurs, and first time true believers might believe in momentum. It could happen, but momentum is more than fighting to a draw.

The candidates have gone on to the next states. Their campaigns will make adjustments. Complacent supporters may or not wake up and decide to show up. Irresistible force will meet immoveable object. If that continues to happen everywhere the end result will be the same – one candidate will still have a 200 pledged delegate lead. This could change, it probably won’t. That doesn’t mean it can’t.

In the absence of a significant groundswell toward Bernie Sanders in the large population states to come – that means he has to paste Hillary Clinton by huge margins – the current status of the leader and second place in a race of two won’t change significantly.

So, partisans, fight the good fight. Work for your candidate. Go door to door. Man those phone banks. Don’t forget to show up and vote. Put a dent in the universe. Be nice to each other. Keep calm and carry on, for the real darkness awaits you in November.


Empty fields and empty lots don’t vote, cable news networks don’t do math (March 6, 2016)