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Tag Archives: 2010 election

Will ’12 be better than ’10?

04 Thursday Nov 2010

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 4 Comments

Tags

2010 election, missouri, Obama

Barack Obama and Timothy Geithner cost Barbara Fraser her seat in the state senate in HD 24. Obama made the mistake of appointing a Wall Street crony, who assured Obama that if THE STREET were rescued, the nation’s economic puzzle would fall into place.

It bloody well didn’t, of course. And voters took their anger and angst out on Democrats all the way down to Barbara Fraser and Kenny Biermann. Fraser lost the race to replace termed out Senator Bray by a heartbreaking 2/10ths of a percentage point. So instead of a progressive woman, SD 24 will send Republican John Lamping, who has never run for office but whose war chest overflowed with money from all over the state, to Jeff City. Then there’s State Rep. Kenny Biermann, who edged out incumbent Vicki Schneider in 2008 but who got more than just edged out (56/44) this go round.

As a result, St. Charles County is now entirely red, and the parts of St. Louis County that teeter between red and blue are redder. Previously secure incumbents were punished. State Rep. Sam Komo, who won his first race in 2006 handily (56/44) and coasted in 2008 to 100%, lost on Tuesday by 49% to 47%. State Rep. Jeff Roorda barely won his first race in 2004 (51/49), but in 2006 he beat the man he had edged out in ’04 by twenty points. Last time around, Roorda had no opposition. Tuesday night, though, he lost 50% to 42%. (The other 8% went to a Constitution Party candidate, so call that Republican and think of the outcome as 58/42.) That race wasn’t even close.

Freshman State Rep. Vicki Englund went down to the opponent, Cloria Brown, that she had beaten (55/45) for an empty seat in 2008. This time Brown got 53%; Englund only 47%. (At least freshman Jeanne Kirkton eked out a win in Webster Groves with 51% of the vote.  Freshman Jill Schupp, fortunately, didn’t have an opponent.)

And the loss of all those seats in the St. Louis metro area doesn’t even count the races where the Democratic challenger might well have succeeded in another electoral climate. The most obvious of those is Deb Lavender in her second shot at Rick Stream for the House seat in Kirkwood. It would have been a triumph of principle over slippery selfishness, and she had i.d.’d enough Democratic and Democratic leaning voters to put her over the top. But they didn’t show up in sufficient numbers. She lost 56% to 44%. At 10:30 Tuesday night, as I left her election night gathering, no results were in–not in her race. But the bleak picture was emerging elsewhere. When I said goodbye, she smiled, put an arm around my shoulders and said that in the morning, she’d either join the long list of disappointments or be one tiny ray of hope. Love that lady’s spirit.

I don’t know whether she’ll have one more go at Stream any more than I know whether Fraser, Komo, Roorda, Biermann, or Englund will fight back in 2012. Nor do I know whether Obama will give them a better chance to succeed if they do try it again. Jane Hamsher, writing at HuffPost, doubts it:

After a rout like this, the only sane response is to fire everyone in the White House (starting with Robert Gibbs) and admit that your messaging failed. What worked for the Democrats this time? Protecting Social Security, anti-NAFTA/free trade and jobs creation. What does Obama plan to do? As of this morning, double down on his plan to spend the next two years reducing the deficit, which means cuts to Social Security, and potentially exacerbating unemployment. And yesterday, the President “assured his South Korean counterpart that his administration was working hard to complete a free trade pact between the two countries.” Good luck to anyone running as a Democrat in 2012.

My pipe dream is that Obama would replace the Geithner and Emanuel types with Paul Krugman and Robert Reich. Reich just bemoaned the Democratic tendency, after a loss like this, to move to the center (whereas the Republicans, after a similar loss, dig in their heels and stay put).

But I know Obama won’t listen to progressives like Reich. He’s too scared of offending Wall Street. So all I can do is shout into the wind: Goddamit, Mr. President, be a Democrat. The country needs one.

“I’m King John and I approve this message”

28 Thursday Oct 2010

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

2010 election, Goofy Photoshops, Robin Carnahan, Roy Blunt, The Usual Republican Lies and Talking Points

Ever get the feeling that some Economic Conservatives read Robin Hood to their kids to scare them?

Oh yeah, the suspense, who is “robbin” you in Republican funhouseland?



Considering that the “Christian families” robocalls got to a lot of pissed off moderates, the odds of the anti-EFCA stuff being send to Union-friendly households is pretty damned good.

Oh yeah, the sources are the same as in this mailer. Only the previous mailer did not have a goofy photoshop job.

1. Cap and Trade is not likely to pass in it’s current form due to the thing we call the Senate, and also special interest groups. And barring a result not expected by anybody, Cap and Trade will probably not wind up in front of the House in the next session, and would need some extensive changes (or better public relations) before it’s moved for again.

2. The source on the card check claim is still slightly up in the air (it’s an online newspaper!) and seems to be an example of “give us what we want or we start hurting people” politics. If Republican politicians were as concerned about jobs emigrating to foreign lands are they are concerned about immigrants from foreign lands, then maybe they’d do something to stop outsourcing. But then again, they’re joined at the hip with the outsourcers.

3. Why do Republicans hate making sure that Medicare could last longer? Oh yeah, because they don’t want Medicare to exist at all. And they’re being opportunistic, claiming they like Medicare, which is a lie, to try and manipulate people into voting them into office. Not to mention that their health care plan is to essentially dismember health care with the promise that the parts they “really” support can be maintained after they disembowel the rest of the law.

The preceding mailer was brought to you by

And an unhindered picture of the goofy Robin Hood/Hamburglar getup that they put Robin in for this flier.

Obviously the MRSC works with stuff that is better than MSPaint. If it weren’t for that part of the flier, I may not have scanned it, because it’s the same old stuff that they sent me a few weeks ago. They need to work harder to stop letting the other clients in their office steal all the ‘good’ citations.

The experts on thin air send me more mail

18 Monday Oct 2010

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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Tags

2010 election, MO-Sen, Robin Carnahan, Roy Blunt, Shiny Republican Lies, Wind Farms

If you say something often enough, it becomes true. Which is why I’m eventually going to be dating supermodels.

Perhaps the Stimulus was more of a gauze than anything else. Especially if you believe the CBO when they say that The Stimulus prevented another depression. And there’s that whole thing where the ‘official’ recession ended, which leads up to the current stabilization. Sadly, a stabilization in the realm of “lousy” is not enough and economic stimulus/acceleration still has to be done to get things going. The same “tax cut everybody and hope it works this time” Republican voodoo is not quite enough here. (Assuming that the Republican strategy isn’t “wait until 2013”, of course)

Oh yeah, the flier.. almost forgot about the rest.

Taxpayer Grants that their company was always qualified for (pre and post-Obama). Taxpayer Grants that the Republicans supported, until someone they don’t want in office is running.

As for the executives. Unless you wish to argue that the Wind Capital Group has invisible supplementary executives, the three higher-ups listed as donors are Tom Carnahan, Baumgardner, and George Knapp. We’re not gonna seriously be shocked that someone would give thousands to his younger sister’s campaign, are we? And in the shadowy conspiracy world that this idea operates in, then the guy who got the favor would be Russ Carnahan (seeing as he’s an actual member of Congress), and how much did Russ get from Baumgardner and Knapp? $0

Obviously the evils of wind power know no bounds.

Then again, does Roy really want to bring favors to family into play? because his imaginary accusations can be countered some pretty solid facts.

And here’s the works cited page (plus the info on the sender of today’s mail)

Wonder how many Republican mailers you need to hook to a turbine before you can power a laptop? I’ve been looking into going green.

Why is the Missouri Republican State Committee sending me mailers?

07 Thursday Oct 2010

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

2010 election, MO-Sen, Robin Carnahan, Roy Blunt, Shiny Republican Lies

Alternate title: Verifying that the scanner still works, thanks to the Republicans dumping money on a giant list.

So here’s their shiny attack piece.

Hey, it’s the subtle approach. Or the definition of a rhetorical question.





Yes, they cite the St. Louis Beacon. Congrats Gentlemen, you’re famous now.  

Activists are still showing up and they're ready to wade into the next fray

20 Friday Feb 2009

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

2010 election, activists, Democratic Party, volunteers

The Johnson County Democratic Club meeting on Thursday evening in the banquet room at a downtown Warrensburg eating establishment.

Over years of Democratic Party activism I’ve always noted a drop off in participation in party organizations after general election cycles – in particular after a presidential election. In the past if one were to bring this phenomenon up in discussion among long time party activists you would get nods of knowing agreement.

This post participation drop off doesn’t appear to be the case now. I’ve observed that people who pitched in as first time volunteers in the Obama and Nixon field operations in our area have continued to be involved in our local Democratic Party institutions. The attendance at meetings is up when compared to the same point after previous election cycles.

The agendas of these meetings contain the usual business elements, like finances, bills, minutes, informational programming, committee reports, but the very important ground work for the next election cycle is also starting up. It’s been a little over three months since the election.

Candidate recruitment (and education, if someone decides they’re going to run) has begun with all due care and speed. Activists and volunteers gained valuable expertise and experience in the last election and they’re eager to test their new found chops for Democratic Party candidates in the coming election cycle.

Our local meetings are now a mix of those with experience (and some longevity as well as institutional memory), newcomers, elected officials, past and potential candidates, political operatives, and the occasional cartoonist…

The cycle starts all over

16 Friday Jan 2009

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

2010 election

In the immediate aftermath of an election everyone collapses. After a short break, or maybe a slightly longer one, Democratic Party activists and candidates start gearing up for the next election cycle. It’s not insanity or masochism, it’s the pragmatic reality of the process. A candidate can’t decide to run on the last day of filing in an election year and expect to win.

Planning, preparation, and fundraising two years out from the actual election don’t guarantee a victory, but a lack thereof certainly increases the likelihood of a loss. That’s the harsh reality.

Courtney Cole (right), a member of the club and a newly elected member of the Missouri State Democratic Committee, gives a presentation on the redesigned Johnson County Democratic Club web site.

The Johnson County Democratic Club held its monthly meeting tonight in the banquet room of a local restaurant in Warrensburg. Attendees heard reports on the club’s finances (healthy, thank you very much), on candidate recruitment, on volunteer recruitment, and on the club’s upgraded and updated web site. There will be a fundraising event in late March. There is no rest for the committed…

The cycle continues. Activists and candidates start the process. New volunteers are enlisted. And new events are planned. That’s retail politics in Missouri. In the trenches.

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