Donald Trump’s (r) latest Gallup presidential approval numbers:
Trump Approval 38% -5
Trump Disapproval 60% +7
Again, via Twitter (today):
Rep. Vicky Hartzler @RepHartzler
Gallop: Unemployment rose to 9% mid-February. Food stamp use is at all time high. True unemployment rate may be over 15%. 9:26 AM – 22 Feb 12
“….True unemployment rate may be over 15%.”
The unemployment statistic which has been consistently utilized by everyone and is reported in the media as the unemployment rate is the U-3. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has “[a]lternative measures of labor underutilization”, one, the U-6, which includes the “[t]otal unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force”. The U-6 is always a higher number.
The seasonally adjusted U-6 was 16.4% in September 2011 and 15.1% in January 2012.
It’s interesting that Representative Vicky Hartzler (r) is just discovering (or is it spinning?) these standards.
As for Gallup?:
Everyone Is Freaking Out Over A New Survey That Shows Unemployment Surging Again
Joe Weisenthal | Feb. 21, 2012, 3:46 PM
….Has the economy really deteriorated just like that?
Nah, don’t worry.
As The Bonddad Blog pointed out last week, this Gallup data isn’t seasonally adjusted (in fact it says that in the chart right up there).
Since it’s not seasonally adjusted, you have to look at it year over year, and guess what.
And guess what, a year ago Gallup was at 10% and BLS was at 9.0%. So with Gallup now being at 9%, you could surmise that BLS will stand at 8.0%, another solid drop….
We’ll find out when the BLS releases the next monthly report.
Meanwhile, Representative Hartzler (r) is either an idiot, or thinks everyone else is, or both.
The Gallup polling organization released their numbers showing party affiliation by state.
% Democrat/Lean Democrat – 48.8
% Republican/Lean Republican – 37.9
Dem-Rep gap (pct. pts.) – 11
Number of interviews – 7,904
The numbers for Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina are very similar to those for Missouri. It’s interesting to note that Obama carried three of those four states (we’re the exception). Gallup’s methodology:
…In 2008, Gallup interviewed more than 350,000 U.S. adults as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking…
…This large data set provides the unique ability to give reliable estimates of state-level characteristics for 2008. Each sample of state residents was weighted by demographic characteristics to ensure it is representative of the state’s population.
In order to rank the states on partisanship, Gallup analyzes “leaned” party identification by state. This measure adds partisan-leaning independents to the percentage who identify with either of the parties. Thus, the Republican total includes Republican identifiers and independents who lean Republican, and the Democratic total likewise includes Democratic identifiers and independents who lean Democratic…