Jackson County Democrats held a chile dinner at the Plumbers and Pipefitters Union Hall in Kansas City on Friday evening. It was an opportunity for a meet and greet and for the crowd to hear statewide candidates speak.

Senator Claire McCaskill (D).

Representative Emanuel Cleaver (D).

Cass County Prosecutor and 4th Congressional District candidate Teresa Hensley (D).

Attorney General Chris Koster (D).

Secretary of State candidate Jason Kander (D).

56th Legislative District candidate Patty Johnson.

Senator Claire McCaskill (D) speaking to the crowd.

Attorney General Chris Koster (D).

Secretary of State candidate Jason Kander (D).

Lieutenant Governor candidate Susan Montee (D).

By @BGinKC

I have known Mike Sharp for years. I got to know him very well back in the “murder summer” of 2004, and the interactions I had with him back then were enough to earn my support four years ago when he announced his candidacy.

Back when I got to know Mike, I was a shift supervisor at Research Medical Center and he was a homicide detective. When our gunshot traumas didn’t survive, the Medical Examiner and homicide unit would come and collect the labs and forensic evidence that was collected in the trauma bay. It was grim detail and no one got their jollies doing it, but interacting with Mike was what passed for a highlight those nights.

In the four years Mike Sharp has been Sheriff of Jackson County, he has served our community with honor and distinction. He has aggressively kept track of sex offenders and made sure their residencies are known and that they remain in compliance with their post-incarcerations obligations. That is important to the safety of our families and communities.

But more importantly, he has done more than any leader of any law enforcement agency anywhere to foster cooperation between agencies. As a retired KC police detective, he has ties to the largest police department in the county, and those ties go a long ways toward fostering cooperation in and of  themselves, but his cooperative nature isn’t limited to just the KCPD. It extends to the small agencies like Oak Grove and Lone Jack, and the federal agencies as well.

In my job I worked closely with law enforcement agencies at every level, from collecting blood samples from suspected drunk drivers for the police in small municipalities to DNA evidence that ended up as evidence in federal prosecutions. I know first-hand how difficult navigating cooperative relationships between agencies can be, and in over twenty years on the job, I have never witnessed anyone who does that better than Mike Sharp.

Therefore, for the reasons I have listed, and many, many more, I am breaking with tradition here at Show Me Progress and making an endorsement in the primary. When you go to the polls next Tuesday, request a Democratic ballot and vote to retain Mike Sharp as our Sheriff.

Truman Days, sponsored by the Jackson County Democratic Committee, is taking place in Kansas City this weekend. The hospitality suites, hosted by various candidates, activist groups, and organized labor, opened on Friday evening. This annual event is an opportunity for Democrats, party activists, and Democratic Party candidates to gather and meet and greet. On Saturday evening Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia, current U.S. Senate candidate in Virginia, will be the keynote speaker at the dinner.  

A bit of blog meta. Courtney Cole (center) and Kevin Morgan (right), the Democratic Party candidate in the 38th Legislative District.

Judy Baker (center), a Democratic Party candidate for Lieutenant Governor and

our good friend Eli Yokley (right), another blogger desperately waiting to feed the content beast.

A young Democrat.

Teresa Hensley (left), the Democratic Party candidate in the 4th Congressional District.

Jean Peters Baker (D), Jackson County Prosecutor.

Chris Moreno, a Democratic Party candidate in the 37th Legislative District.

Holmes Osborne (center), the Democratic Party candidate in the 53rd Legislative District.

Our good friends at Almar Printing graciously gave us a place to drop our camera bags whilst we cruised the hospitality suites taking photos.

From Mike Sharp (D), Jackson County Sheriff:

James Garner would be so proud.

Previously: Truman Days 2011 in Kansas City (May 13, 2011)

A bumper sticker on a car in the hotel parking lot. Yep, we were in the right place.

On Saturday morning Senator Claire McCaskill (D) was the keynote speaker at the Fifth Congressional District Democratic Women’s Club Truman Days breakfast in Kansas City.

Senator Claire McCaskill (D) working the room during the breakfast before her speech.

The transcript:

Senator Claire McCaskill (D): …I thought instead I’d try to talk about why we’re all here and why we should care so much. Um, ’cause it really isn’t about me. It’s really about you. And it’s about the people that you care about. And it’s about our values and our priorities. So I thought I’d try to give everyone a little pep talk this morning about why you should not be discouraged about the Democratic Party. And why this is a moment we should see as an opportunity, because it really is.

We have an election this year that is gonna really define our nation and our state in so many ways. Because, let’s be honest, uh, the voters of this country decided last November they wanted to put the brakes on the Democrats. We can’t avoid that. We can’t avoid acknowledging that. We can try to dress it up and say it’s something different, but, truth be known, the independent voters of Missouri, not the Democrats and not the Republicans, the independent voters of Missouri  decided to put the brakes on the Democrats. And they did that all over the country. So, what we have to do is check back in, first, for all the things we’ve gotten done, and secondly, all the reasons that we have to fight next year harder than we fought in two thousand eight when we elected Barack Obama President of the United States in this country. [applause]…

…And let’s be honest, we have a tendency to complain. Now, do I have a witness? [laughter] I think we have a tendency as activists in the Democratic Party to always complain about what’s going wrong. Well, you know, Obama should have, you know, he should have gone with single payer. Or, you know, I, I really don’t like the fact that we’re having to cut many of the programs I care about. And, you know, and Jay Nixon, he just isn’t doing the right thing. Or, you know, I wish Claire McCaskill wouldn’t have voted for Rockefeller.

Well, on and on and on. And I think we have a tendency not to focus on how much we’ve gotten done that we all care about. And so I’m gonna briefly go through a very short list, a very short list of the things that have been accomplished since the Democrats took over the United States Senate with the election of Claire McCaskill in Missouri in two thousand six. First, we did sweeping health care reform that will, in spite of what, all the misinformation that’s out there, it will provide quality, choices, affordability, and access. We have expanded the Pell Grant program, making college real for millions of kids that wouldn’t have ever got in to college. We now have more Pell Grant assistance, even with the cut we had to do in summer programs, than we’ve ever had before in the United States of America. We passed a child nutrition law that will make a difference in terms of [inaudible] children, especially needy children, have the kind of nutrition they need to avoid those big health care costs down the line. We took, regulated tobacco for the first time in the United States of America, we have finally regulated tobacco. We fought and won the tobacco lobby in Washington. [applause, cheers] We have done over five hundred billion dollars of targeted tax cuts for small businesses and for working families. Did, did you hear that? [voice: “Yes.”] [applause] We’ve done over five hundred billion of targeted tax cuts for small businesses and the middle class. We did the stimulus which stopped the bleeding, cut taxes, provided unemployment in, insurance benefits, and gave the State of Missouri a lifeline through the rockiest road of economic downturns that we’ve seen in this country since the Great Depression. [applause] We did Wall Street reform and regulation to prevent future messes like the one that we have been cleaning up since the day George Bush left office. [voice: “Yeah.”][applause] We expanded the Children’s Health Insurance Program. [applause].  Did I mention five hundred billion dollars in targeted tax cuts [applause] for small businesses and middle class families? [cheers] We created a small business lending fund that, uh, is right now helping capital get to small businesses because we all know the vast majority of the jobs that are created in this country are not created by the big companies, they’re created by small companies. We passed the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act [cheers, applause] .  We put into place a first time home buyer tax credit. We did housing loan modification legislation that has proved, prevented foreclosures all across the country. We did the fraud enforcement and recovery act, and this is a big one. We fought the credit card companies and did real credit card company reform in terms of how [applause] consumers are treated in terms of their credit cards. We did Defense Department weapons acquisition overhaul to prevent waste and cost overruns at the Pentagon. We did emer, emergency  border security supplemental funding. We did Iran sanctions to try to keep a country in check that could be very dangerous for our national security. We did hate crimes prevention, passed that [applause] over a lot of opposition on the other side of the aisle. We did a new G.I. Bill that allows those veterans coming home from Iraq and Afghanistan today to have the exact same benefits that my father had when he came home from World War Two. [applause, cheers]  We did the veterans caregiver assistance bill which allows family members that are caring for veterans that have been injured to get the support they need so that their lives are not even more disrupted by the tragedy that they’re dealing with. And, we have established record funding for veteran’s programs in the United States of America. [applause]  And now we’ve had fourteen consecutive months of solid job growth in the private sector. [applause] Not bad, not bad.

If I would have done the complete list I would have been late to my next event in Columbia at noon. [laughter] I couldn’t list everything. But the next time you feel frustrated, the next time you feel like you want to complain that the Democrats aren’t saying it right or doing it right reflect on that list. And understand that many of those came over incredible opposition from the Republican Party. And so, it has been productive and there is a lot for us to be proud of and we should not lose sight of that for a minute as we prepare for next year. [applause]

And we have a fight. We have a fight along with a huge deficit and debt problem. So how are we gonna get through the next decade and maintain our priorities and values? This will be a challenge. And I want to make sure no one leaves this room without me saying very clearly how serious the problem is. It is impossible to find a country in the world that has had economic growth when their debt equaled their GDP. When the debt in a country had equaled their gross domestic production countries don’t grow. Now, we are gonna be there in less than ten years. We will be there. So, if we don’t want to get there we all have to be honest and realistic about what has to happen. Does i
t have to be the way [Republican Congressman] Paul Ryan wants it to be? No, of course not. it does not have to be the way Paul Ryan. Do we have to end Medicare? No, we do not and we will not end Medicare, [applause, cheers] not on my watch. But we have a fight to in the future. And we have to have targeted investments in infrastructure, in innovation, and of course, in education. But we also have to realize that the footprint of the federal government is gonna have to shrink. And we do have to have a tax code that is less tilted towards the very, very, very, very wealthy in this country. [applause]

Our fight is to hold on to the values of our nation, our civil rights, equality, tolerance, and religious freedom. Now, what are they fighting for? Now this is where it gets a little weird. [laughter] Since they’ve taken over the majority in the House and taken over so many Governor’s jobs in this country and taken big majorities in so many state legislatures their priorities have been interesting. And I’m being kind. They have taken a meat axe to education. I mean, the folks in Jeff City didn’t want to spend the money that we had sent them from the federal government to make sure they didn’t have to lay off teachers. In some kind of symbolic political gesture. Really? Somebody asked me one day, well, what message are the legislators in Jefferson City sending when, when they are trying to, you know, they say they’re trying to send a message to the federal government that they shouldn’t be spending money this way? I said, I’ll tell you the message they’re sending, they’re sending a message to Missourians that they don’t give a hoot about public education in this state. [applause] That’s the message they’re sending.

We can’t have an America that we know and love by inflicting all of the pain on fifteen percent of the budget. While I am absolutely committed to making sure the footprint of the federal government shrinks, this is a situation where the pain has to be felt by all. We can’t just do it with Pell Grants, Head Start, funding for Agriculture, highways, foreign aid, that’s only a little bitty sliver of our budget you guys. It’s a little bitty sliver. We aren’t, we could cut all that money out and we’d still have a huge debt structure problem. So we’ve got to look at, at means testing. We’ve got to quit buying Warren Buffet’s prescription drugs. We can’t afford to buy warren Buffet’s prescription drugs. If you are very wealthy you should buy your own prescription drugs, [applause] not have the government buy them for you.

And then have to look at all of the spending. And believe me, there is no one in Washington that cares more about our military than I do. There is no one in Washington who has a better handle and understands better how important our military readiness is. But let me just walk you down the path of waste at the Pentagon. In two thousand one the Pentagon’s base budget, I’m not talking about the war s now, forget about the wars, that’s a whole ‘nother budget, just the Pentagon, their base budget was three hundred billion dollars. This year their base budget is five hundred and fifty three billion dollars. Now can you imagine what your kids would ask for if you never told ’em no? Can you imagine how far they might go in asking for things if you never told them no? How ’bout multiple IT systems to track the same equipment? Both IT systems costing billions of dollars tracking the same equipment in two different branches of the military and the two systems can’t even talk to each other. Now, that is absolutely should infuriate tax payers. It should infuriate the members of the House. And you know what they did in their budget this week? They didn’t touch the Pentagon’s budget. In fact, they added money to the Pentagon’s budget. There is real money savings we can find in the Pentagon without absolutely having any impact on our military readiness, on the best military in the world, or protecting our men and women in harm’s way. [Applause] And that’s what we have to focus on.

You know, if we are gonna be serious about our debt and deficit we have to be also serious about the tax code and the goodies that are in it. and as [Jackson County Executive] Mike [Sanders] mentioned, one of the things that ought to be the easiest to get done, you know, they are busy wanting to cut Pell Grants, they are busy wanting to cut [inaudible], you know, the money that helps feed children that are poor, they’re busy wanting to cut Head Start, but they don’t want to talk about taking away money, taxpayer money, from the wealthiest corporations on the planet. Now really, how serious are they about the debt and deficit?

Um, big oil. Big oil, I’m, and you know, this bill that I introduced, it’s just the five biggest oil companies. It’s not the small independent oil companies. We want them to keep competing, right? It’s the five biggest. You know what they made the last three months, these five companies? Their profit? North of thirty-five billion dollars in three months. And what we’re talking about over a year, they’re gonna make north of a hundred twenty-five billion this year. We’re talking about taking away two billion dollars of their profit that’s your money. And the Republicans say, oh, no, can’t do that because, you know, or gas prices will go up. I got news for you. They’ve got those subsidies, our gas prices are going up. [voice: “Yeah.”] [applause] Hasn’t had any difference.  I don’t think [applause], I don’t think anyone’s noticed that the, the gas companies, the big oil companies are worried about our gas prices. And to use that as an excuse to keep handing them our federal money. Are you kidding me? How in the world, if we are not willing to go after the most egregious examples of corporate welfare? What nerve do they have, going after the Pell Grants and Head Start?  That’s the difference between a Republican and a Democrat [cheers, applause]  right there. That’s the difference. [cheers]

You know, in the tax code also, um, let’s, let’s, let’s talk about this. In, in the nineties, uh, there was a little bit more taxes that multimillionaires paid and we balanced the budget. And we had twenty-two million jobs created. And then we cut taxes for the multimillionaires and guess what? We didn’t have much job creation. So, I got to tell you, the other thing that’s important as part of this equation, putting everything on the table, part of this equation is we really do need to say to folks, you know, on your second million you can pay three percent more in taxes. You really can. [applause] And I really don’t think on your second home that you need a mortgage interest deduction. Really? [laughter] Um, I don’t think that is something that is really motivating folks who buy a second home for recreation purposes.

And then finally, I just want to say, um, the other thing that you’ve noticed since they’ve taken over so many places is they are working very hard to weaken the voices of working people in this country. [voice: “Yes.”] [applause] With all of the excesses that caused our financial meltdown their solution is to go after the nurses and the teachers and the firefighters and the policemen? Really? With all of the excesses, all of the greed, and all of the, the incredible motivation to make hundreds of millions of dollars in all of these ridiculous secure, securitized mortgages and all of the subprime meltdown, after that mess they think what we need to do is to go after the two people who, maybe, their combined income is eighty grand a year? That’s the way we’re gonna make America strong again? To go after the pensions of the people who have worked in our classrooms for twenty-five years? I will tell you, one thing the Democratic Party is gonna do next year, we’re gonna make very clear to America that the teachers of this country are not the problem. [applause, cheers]. They are not the problem.  [applause, cheers] [inaudible] Yay, for the teachers. [applause][inaudible]

You know this, this fight is a noble one. And it’s one that should motivate all of us. It is about the small business, it’s about the
family with two parents working full time and hoping they can figure out a way to get their kids to college.  It’s about single moms and their struggles to be god mothers and good providers at the same time and figuring out what time they can get their kids ready for school and still get to the bus so they can get to their job. It’s about families, no matter what they look like. This fight is, uh, not about policy. It’s about people. And it’s about the fundamental principle that all of us believes so deeply in, and that is we have to have a country where there still is opportunity for everyone. And we cannot ever turn our back on that fundamental value. It’s our party that will always wage this fight. It is our party that will state this cause with passion and emotion. And is our party that tonight, today, tomorrow, next week has to put aside our small disappointments with one another and focus on a message of unity and strength. Because, you know what, hat mother who’s trying to get her child ready for school to get them to the school bus so that she can get down and catch the bus to her job? She’s got nobody to count on but us. So let’s do it for her.

Thank you all very much. [applause]

Jackson County Executive Mike Sanders (D) introduced Senator McCaskill. Missouri Democratic Party Sate Chair Susan Montee also addressed the crowd.

Missouri State Treasurer Clint Zweifel (D) attended the brakfast and worked the crowd.

In the first place God made idiots. This was for practice. Then he made School Boards. – Following the Equator; Pudd’nhead Wilson’s New Calendar

We spotted this on a decorated vehicle in eastern Jackson County today:

That’s a spaceship icon on the right with the text “science” inside.

Every time you stop a school, you will have to build a jail. What you gain at one end you lose at the other. It’s like feeding a dog on his own tail. It won’t fatten the dog.

– Speech, 11/23/1900

The entire package.

Jackson County is split between two election boards. One board serves Kansas City, the other board serves everything else. The board for the rest of Jackson County made their results official today.

ROY BLUNT* 63870 54.42%

ROBIN CARNAHAN 47634 40.58%

Other 5561 4.73%

TOM SCHWEICH* 61255 52.73%

SUSAN MONTEE 50567 43.53%

CHARLES W. BAUM 4203 3.62%

It was only 2 years ago that this part of Missouri reported these results

JOHN MCCAIN-SARAH PALIN* 92833 49.79%

BARACK OBAMA-JOE BIDEN 90722 48.66%

So how did it all fall apart? Let’s go region by region

7 townships make up the territory of the Jackson County Election Board. One of these townships (Blue Township aka Independence) is split 8 ways. We will look at the results for each one of the Blue Townships along with the other 6 townships, showing both the results for Carnahan/Blunt and Montee/Schweich (with the reality that Montee/Schweich was a generic “which party do you like more” vote). Map images are taken off of Dave’s Redistricting App

Blue 1

Description: NW Independence and Sugar Creek, MO. The type of precinct that any competent Democratic campaign should win every time.

2004p: Kerry 2954, Bush 2016. JK 58.9%, Bush 40.2%

2008p: Obama 2831, McCain 1868. Obama 58.8%, McCain 38.8%

2010s: Carnahan 1265, Blunt 1238. RC 46.6%, Blunt 45.6%

2010a: Montee 1390, Schweich 1140. SM 51.7%, TS 42.4%

Turnout plunge, 2008 Pres to 2010 Senate: 4812 in 08, 2715 in 10

Home area of this poster. Also worth noting that 12.24% is not the biggest plunge in support from Obama to Carnahan.

Blue 2

Description: NE Independence, moving from the city limits on one side past Missouri Highway 291 on the other.

2004p: Kerry 2961, Bush 2356. 55.2% to 43.9%

2008p: Obama 2994, McCain 2171. 56.7% to 41.1%

2010s: Carnahan 1311, Blunt 1422. 44.3% to 48%

2010a: Montee 1453, Schweich 1315. 49.6% to 44.9%

Turnout plunge: 5277 votes in 2008, 2961 votes in 2010, the biggest drop in this area. Never a great sign when 2/3rds of the McCain voters vote and half of the Obama voters don’t vote for Democrats in 2010.

Biggest drop from Obama to Carnahan. Biggest drop from Montee to Carnahan. This is also part of the 53rd House District, which Democrat Diane Egger lost to Republican Brent Lasater. Lasater spent the vast sum of under $500 to be swept into office, despite a vast disadvantage in yard signs, functioning campaign offices, and family ties.

Blue 3

Description: The most Northeastern Parts of Independence. Includes unincorporated Jackson County, bordered by the Little Blue River

2004p: Kerry 3256, Bush 3337. 49% to 50.25%

2008p: Obama 3531, McCain 3253. 51.1% to 47%

2010s: Carnahan 1664, Blunt 2163. 40.8% to 53%

2010a: Montee 1828, Schweich 2032. 45.25% to 50.3%

Turnout drop: 6915 votes in 2008, 4080 votes in 2010.

Another 10% swing. Another big Montee/Carnahan drop (you have realized why the generic statewide Dem race is being listed here, right?). Although this was an area of importance for the groundgame of the campaign, more so than Blue 2 or Blue 1. Well, we held things at the state average in Blue 3.

Blue 4

Description: The Independence Square and lots of area that was in Independence pre-annexation binge (in the 1940s). Also includes Englewood

2004p: Kerry 2750, Bush 2428. 52.5% to 46.4%

2008p: Obama 2877, McCain 2197. 55.6% to 42.5%

2010s: Carnahan 1388, Blunt 1472. 45.3% to 48.1%

2010a: Montee 1443, Schweich 1423. 47.7% to 47%

Turnout drop: 5173 votes in 2008, 3058 votes in 2010.

In an ideal world, precincts you win by 13% are not 50/50 in the next election. But then again, in an ideal world, candidates who spend under $500 don’t get elected for being in the right party.

Blue 5

Description: Independence south of Missouri-78, stretching from Blue Ridge Boulevard to Lee’s Summit Road

2004p: Kerry 3519, Bush 3455. 50.1% to 49.15%

2008p: Obama 3462, McCain 3316. 50.1% to 48%

2010s: Carnahan 1935, Blunt 2305. 42.7% to 50.8%

2010a: Montee 2095, Schweich 2183. 46.7% to 48.7%

I would point out the examples of suburban areas moving to the right, but there’s a lot of examples of that and no clear diagnosis as to the cause other than the obvious cause of “Suburbanites are not voting for us”

Blue 6

Description: Independence, mainly east of Lee’s Summit Road, includes Blue River Community College and a lot of growing areas

2004p: Kerry 3609, Bush 3741. 48.8% to 50.5%

2008p: Obama 3744, McCain 3533. 50.7% to 47.8%

2010s: Carnahan 1930, Blunt 2478. 41.15% to 52.8%

2010a: Montee 2073, Schweich 2395. 44.5% to 51.4%

You might be looking at the Blunt/McCain percentage thinking that’s the sign of future hope. Overlooking that a lot of protest votes went to two right-ring candidates due to the fact that neither Senate campaign ran much positive advertising in the first half of the campaign. It would be surprising if significantly more people voted for the third party candidates from the Dem side than from the Rep side.

Blue 7

Description: SW Independence, going all the way to Phelps Road (in-between Noland and Lee’s Summit)

2004p: Kerry 3866, Bush 3749. 50.50% to 49%

2008p: Obama 3577, McCain 3473. 49.9% to 48.5%

2010s: Carnahan 2155, Blunt 2537. 43.8% to 51.6%

2010a: Montee 2320, Schweich 2407. 47.45% to 49.2%

Blue 7 is probably the best example of what i’d call “Obama underperforming” in 2008. Or maybe the best example of a turnout drop. But the post 2004 results posted online by Jackson County don’t show the turnout of registered voters.

Blue 8

Description: SE Independence, lots of nice houses, and lots of economic development over the last 15 years

2004p: Kerry 3671, Bush 4320. 45.6% to 53.7%

2008p: Obama 3945, McCain 4115. 48.2% to 50.3%

2010s: Carnahan 2397, Blunt 3038. 42.1% to 53.4%

2010a: Montee 2585, Schweich 2868. 45.85% to 50.9%

The only Blue Township ‘realm’ won by McCain, which didn’t get drastically bluer on the Auditor’s side (Schweich beat McCain by a little over 2 percent in the areas featured in this post, but we can see that they ran even in this area). For every 1000 Blue-8 voters who voted in 2008, 695.9 of them voted in 2010, the best rate for Independence. As well, it had the most votes cast (beating Blue-7 by 700) and the most Bass Pro Centers of all the Blue areas.

Brooking

Description: Raytown, Missouri

2004p: Kerry 7559, Bush 6527. 53.3% to 46.05%

2008p: Obama 8123, McCain 5702. 57.9% to 40.6%

2010s: Carnahan 4659, Blunt 3894. 52% to 43.4%

2010a: Montee 4910, Schweich 3640. 55.2% to 40.9%

Only one township was better for Carnahan in the “not running far behind Obama” category, but that township wasn’t as important as this one. In the JCEB-area, Carnahan ran 8.1% behind Obama and here, she ran 5.9% behind Obama. Plus Raytown did not bleed turnout like the Independence townships did.

Fort Osage

Description: Northeastern Jackson County, includes small towns like Buckner, Sibley, and Levasy

2004p: Kerry 1166, Bush 1863. 38.2% to 61.1%

2008p: Obama 1240, McCain 1965. 38% to 60.3%

2010s: Carnahan 662, Blunt 1408. 29.9% to 63.7%

2010a: Montee 740, Schweich 1327. 33.9% to 60.8%

Sadly for Sibley residents (their precinct went for Obama, really), this area is out of the running for the 2012 Democratic National Convention.

Prairie

Description: Lee’s Summit, Missouri

2004p: Kerry 17136, Bush 27762. 38% to 61.6%

2008p: Obama 21589, McCain 27557. 43.5% to 55.6%

2010s: Carnahan 12818, Blunt 20167. 37.4% to 58.9%

2010a: Montee 13369, Schweich 19598. 39.4% to 57.75%

That 2008 swing sure didn’t last into 2010.

Sni-a-Bar

Description: Blue Springs and Grain Valley

2004p: Kerry 13974, Bush 20824. 39.9% to 59.5%

2008p: Obama 16464, McCain 20980. 43.4% to 55.3%

2010s: Carnahan 8656, Blunt 14741. 35.2% to 59.9%

2010a: Montee 9274, Schweich 14239. 38% to 58.3%

Biggest plunge in percent outside of Independence. This township fell back to the norm in 2010 (well, at least for Auditor)

Van Buren

Description: Southwestern Jackson County, includes Lone Jack (where everybody going to school in Warrensburg had one friend get pulled over for speeding) and Lake Lotawana

2004p: Kerry 1458, Bush 2456. 36.95% to 62.2%

2008p: Obama 1579, McCain 2591. 37.5% to 61.5%

2010s: Carnahan 989, Blunt 1964. 32% to 63.5%

2010a: Montee 1054, Schweich 1887. 34.4% to 61.6%

The best township when it comes to not having a huge drop from Obama to Carnahan. Which means nothing significant because it’s very Republican and is still very Republican. Also, for every 1000 voters who voted in 2008, 733.6 voted in 2010, the best rate of any township in 2010.

Washington

Description: Grandview, MO

2004p: Kerry 6168, Bush 3666. 62.4% to 37.1%

2008p: Obama 7121, McCain 3084. 68.9% to 29.8%

2010s: Carnahan 3764, Blunt 2193. 60.9% to 35.4%

2010a: Montee 3814, Schweich 2090. 62.4% to 34.2%

Turnout plunge: 10338 for President, 6182 for Senator

Grandview is pretty much the only area with a significant minority population in the district and it’s votes as a percentage of the 2008 votes still beat Blue 1 and 2. If 1000 people voted in Grandview in 2008, 598 of them would have voted in 2010. The overall percentage was 62.9% and the worst townships put up around 56% of their 2008 turnout in 2010.

Election results sorted by the 2008-2010 turnout plunge

Places where the 2010 vote total was under 60% of the 2008 vote total: Carnahan 49.4%, Blunt 44.7% (18996 votes, from Blue 1, 2, 3, 4 and Washington) – Obama 59.5%, McCain 38.7% (32515 votes)

Places where the 2010 vote total was over 2/3rds of the 2008 vote total: Carnahan 37.9%, Blunt 58% (50163 votes, from Blue 7, 8, Fort Osage, Prairie, and Van Buren) – Obama 44.1%, McCain 54.8% (72416 votes)

Places not included in the last two lines: Carnahan 40.15%, Blunt 54.7% (42787 votes, Blue 5, 6, Brooking, Sni-a-Bar) – Obama 48%, Obama 50.6% (66266 votes)

It’s no coincidence that the areas with the biggest plunge in turnout are the areas with the biggest drops in Democratic support in this area.

As someone who did a share of volunteering with the knowledge of where the walks were going to, I can tell you that a lot of canvassers went to Blue 3 and Blue 8. The logic being used was that from August to mid-October, voters who we had no data on were being contacted to figure out where they stood on the election.

But the problem seems to be not the people who were unknown and undecided, but the people who were passed over because we knew they were Democrats. And ultimately, the GOTV approach seemed to be a lot closer to just one visit on the last weekend. The coordinated campaign (of the MO Democratic Party and OFA) found a way to aim for one group, lay off another, only to see both groups not vote for Democrats on election day.

The 4 Blue areas which saw the biggest drops in turnout and Democratic performance will likely still be very White when the 2010 Census totals are released. The 2000 totals showed those areas standing in-between 85% to 92% and the precinct results from the 2008 primary showed strong majorities for Hillary Clinton. So I feel it would be inaccurate to categorize the drops in turnout as a “diehard Obama supporter” thing like the turnout drops in St. Louis City and Kansas City will be categorized (both areas had turnout below 40% on 11/2). Without knowing the number of registered voters in Blue 1 through 4, I’d imagine there’s no way the turnout broke 40% and may be closer to 33%

The most concise advice is the most vague advice here. Don’t move left or right. Just figure out what you actually stand for which is relevant to the voters and talk about that stuff. It seems that the Republican message was more relevant to inspiring people to vote. It may not be a message of realistic positions, but what was the alternative? Insane beats Irrelevant most of the time.

State Auditor Susan Montee (D) was the keynote speaker at the Saturday morning brunch for the Jackson County Democratic Committee‘s Truman Days celebration held at the Hyatt Crown Center in Kansas City.

State Auditor Susan Montee (D): ….I want to take the opportunity to, now that I have you all here, to just talk a little bit about what we, what we do in the Auditor’s office….There are so many things going on that make it important to, to know when you go in and choose who you want to be serving in that office. Because it, it just, it’s especially in tough economic times like we’re in, to have someone, uh, who is working in there that understands that everything we do in that office can have some kind of effect on the decision making that it does….

….We do audit all of state government, all of the boards and commissions, we audit the court system. So we, we do traditionally do, when you think of in the office, but we do a lot of things on top of that as well. You know, we do all the small counties. And in the small counties we sure are seeing a lot of problems out there. We do all eighty-nine of them. So now, at the end of, at the end of this year I will have been to all eighty-nine of those counties one time in the four years in addition to a lot of other things…We’re dumping a lot of unfunded mandates on these counties. It’s very hard for them, um, to actually do some of the things that they need to. And we go in and we work and try to be, you know, a team member with them. And really it is, it is a time for, uh, all of us to be working together to get through the tough stuff…

…But then, we, we, review and register every single bond that goes through the state. We’ve had some of the largest bond, uh, the numbers have gone from, you know, small things when I first came in to Columbia just passed one of the largest bond issues in the history of the state because people don’t have any money right now and all of the governments are going out and, and, you know, trying to get more money in the door to fund their operations. And we are constantly being bombarded with extend, find ways to extend the amount of time they can do the bonds for. And do things that, that would create obligations for our future. And all of that stuff comes through our office, as well, and it really only takes, you know, a little bit of clout to, to come in and change the way that we operate in this state through our office.

Uh, we also certify all the property tax rates, which is something that has been a huge nightmare for us ’cause they keep changing all the property tax stuff, but we are having to make decisions about going in, enforcing tax rates on small jurisdictions, trying to work with them, or whether we go in and upset their entire tax structure. Believe me, sitting in a place that, that you are, where we’re talking about doing away with the earnings tax, if our office is able to come in and upset the way people do things it is a, it is not a good position to have someone who is beholden to political contributions sitting in it.

So, in all, in all of those types of ways there’s so many things that are office does that, that can affect everybody’s daily life.

Then we have this new thing with these ballot initiatives. Um, you know, it, it is very scary what has happened with the ballot initiatives. And here’s in a nutshell what happens with those – you know when you go in and you vote there’s two paragraphs there. There’s one that tells you what the thing does and then there’s the one that tells you whether it costs or saves anything for state and local government. Well Robin Carnahan writes the first paragraph and I write the second one. And then we both get sued. [laughter]  It’s been a wild ride. Um, just to put it in perspective, in the eight years that Claire was the auditor she got sued a total of six times on ballot initiatives and I have had thirty-six [laughter] since I’ve been in office.  So, it is a. it is a new and, and different, uh, operation goin’ on there…

…we’re down to only a few things that are gonna be, uh, potentially on the ballot. But they are some scary things. Um, doing away with the non-partisan court plan is probably going to be on the ballot. Sunsetting the earnings tax in St. Louis and Kansas City is probably going to make the ballot…

…We had a hundred and one separate ballot initiative petitions come through my office since the November oh-eight election.  So, it is something that we really have to keep an eye on.

And so, when you talk about political possibilities for my office, believe me, there are so many more than, than you can count. Uh, but I have tried very hard since I’ve been in office to conduct the office in a way that is, is somewhat removed from, uh, the political process….

….It is a wonderful job because there are so many challenges and yet the rewards are so great. When we can find ways that we can increase efficiency and free up resources so we don’t have to have the kind of cuts that we are seeing right now it is a very good place to be in and a very good feeling to have. And so, it’s with those feelings, you know, that I say I’d like to continue to do the job for another four years….

….I have done a little reflecting on the last three and a half years and I really am proud of the work that we’ve done. We have reorganized the office, we’ve gone from four different divisions down to three, we’ve streamlined the way we do stuff, we do one type of report which means we can share resources so we can get more places, uh, we found all kinds of places to save, and, and make things more efficient. We, for the first time ever in Missouri history, won the national award for, uh, audit of the year, last year for our performance audit work on low income housing [applause]. And I have a whole stream of federal officials coming to work with us on the, uh, single audit work we were a part of the early reporting on weatherization. And ‘m working now with the Department of Energy and their inspector generals to make sure that we get all our money spent in the right way and that our stimulus money stimulates the economy in the way it’s supposed to do.

So, I’ve been approached by Republicans and Democrats alike to work on initiatives in their counties and in their cities. And I really feel like we have done a good job in our office and that people recognize the value of the office as a resource…

Cass County Democrats at the Saturday morning event.

It’s that time of year again. Your intrepid bloggers are feeding the content beast (well, at least I am) and are busily schmoozing with the good Democrats of Jackson County at their annual Truman Days celebration here at the Hyatt Crown Center in Kansas City. It’s an opportunity to see old Democratic Party friends and meet new ones.

The IBEW hospitality suite from the lobby mezzanine.

Blue Girl hard at work in the IBEW hospitality suite (Mr. Blue Girl is on the left).

There’ll be more coverage to follow.

Former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes (and current 6th Congressional District candidate), Congressman Emanuel Cleaver, and Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr.

For us here at Show Me Progress the second day of Truman Days in Jackson County started late. We made it in to the Independence location a little after 5:00 p.m., with enough time to check out the 7:00 p.m. banquet location and start talking to people gathering for the 5:30 p.m. reception.

I spoke with Greater Kansas City Democracy for America President Joe Medley (more on that in a later post) before it got too crowded and noisy in the lobby.

State Representative (and Attorney General candidate) Jeff Harris and Katie Harris

I spoke with Jeff Harris (and Katie Harris) about the end of the legislative session. Stopping the voter ID bill was topic one among all in attendance. We also talked about the repeal of campaign contribution limits. Representative Harris and I conversed at some length about public campaign financing (in Maine and Arizona).

I had only a brief opportunity to speak with State Senator (and Attorney General candidate) Chris Koster about the end of the session. His “run out the clock” strategy on the floor of the Senate was singled out for praise by State Auditor Susan Montee in her remarks to those attending the banquet.

In the banquet hall I did get to briefly speak with Representative Margaret Donnelly (also a candidate for Attorney General). Again, the topic of the conversation was the failure of the voter ID bill and the repeal of campaign finance limits.

Apparently party committees will still be able to contribute to candidates (unlike the previous republican attempt), though we’ll have to take a close look at the language to see what’s in the bill once it becomes available on-line.

We at Show Me Progress plan on attending the Democratic Attorney General debate in Kansas City scheduled for 6:00 p.m. on Thursday, May 22nd at White Recital Hall on the campus of UMKC.  

Attorney General Jay Nixon

The crowd (and its spillover) attending the 5:00 p.m. reception merged with the crowd gathering in the lobby for the banquet – members of Congress, statewide office holders, statewide candidates, members of and candidates for the General Assembly, political staff, and political activists – all elbow to elbow.

You’ve gotta love it.