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Monthly Archives: November 2012

Statewide Mapapalooza

09 Friday Nov 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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2012 elections, Chris Koster, Claire McCaskill, Clint Zweifel, Jason Kander, Jay Nixon, Susan Montee

Technology threatened to inflict slow times on the manual election map creation front. But so far since Tuesday, the Missouri Secretary of State’s site hasn’t found a way to make their mapping technology work (or they forgot to reactivate the maps after the traffic subsided).

So here’s where I step in.

This map shows which counties picked the most candidates who won statewide:

11 of 115 counties voted for Romney, Claire McCaskill, Jay Nixon, Peter Kinder, Jason Kander, Clint Zweifel and Chris Koster.

The largest of the counties to pick all 7 winners are Clay and Jefferson Counties. Jefferson County is considered by some to be a weathervane of how statewide elections will play out.

Also notable that Kinder swept 5 traditionally Democratic Southeast Missouri counties (Iron, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot and Reynolds).

Jackson County has two election boards, the Kansas City Board and the Jackson County Board (which reports non-KC results). If we counted the County Board separately, they would be on the 7 for 7 list as well.

So, which counties picked 6 winning candidates and 1 losing candidate?

Six counties picked one losing candidate.

Buchanan and Ste. Genevieve Counties backed St. Joseph native Susan Montee over Peter Kinder. Henry, Shannon and St. Francois Counties backed Shane Schoeller over Jason Kander. Linn County picked Cole McNary over Clint Zweifel.

The 23 counties picking 5 winners and 2 losers either backed Obama and Montee (Boone, Jackson, STL City, STL County) or backed Schoeller and McNary (the rest).

9 counties backed 4 winners and 3 losers. Dave Spence won Cass, Daviess, Gentry, Schuyler, Scotland, Sullivan and Worth Counties. Todd Akin won Monroe County. Ed Martin won Lewis County.

15 counties supported 3 winners and 4 losers almost had diversity as to the successful Democrat they supported. Claire McCaskill won Andrew and Pulaski Counties. Chris Koster won Callaway, Cole, Lincoln, Livingston, Maires, Moniteau, Montgomery, Oregon, Randolph, St. Clair and Vernon Counties.

The other 50 counties backed the entire Republican ticket.

As for media markets, for the sake of reference:

Voters in the St. Louis market went for the entire Democratic ticket. Voters in the Kansas City market went for Romney, and then 6 Missouri Democratic candidates. In head-to-head (D or R) percentages, Claire/Nixon/Zweifel/Koster were over 60% in St. Louis. While Kansas City State Rep Jason Kander won a higher percentage in the St. Louis TV marker than in the Kansas City TV market.

A majority of Springfield market voters went for the Republican candidates. With Romney winning 69% h2h in the market. But Akin winning 54% and Ed Martin winning 52%. 76 thousand Springfield voters voted Romney but not Akin. 52 thousand Springfield voters voted Claire but not Obama.

Columbia’s market picked 6 winners but backed Schoeller.

Cape Girardeau’s markets and Joplin’s markets backed all 7 Republicans. Jay Nixon won 42%h2h in the Joplin market and 45%h2h in Jasper County.

Kirksville and Hannibal were two parts of the state subject to Presidential ads, as both reached Iowa. Kirksville backed Claire and Koster, and Hannibal backed all 7 Republicans.

So the basic maps for the 5 Missouri-level races and the Senate race.

Senate:

Remember 2006 when a lot of coverage and emphasis went on Claire’s focus on outstate? This time around, outstate did pretty well, all things considered. The only way the result could have been more lopsided is if Claire won more counties (instead of just winning 53 of 115 and winning by 15%). The Pulaski County result was surprising, as it seemed like the only Democrat to win that county recently was Ike Skelton. A variety of counties north of the river may have been softened up by the one-two of Akin’s radioactivity and the Farm Bill issue, causing those voters to pick Claire over Akin.

It takes a special kind of terrible campaign/candidate to not win 40% in a Missouri statewide race.

Governor:

The 2008 map which had a horseshoe ring of counties from St. Louis to Springfield to Kansas City could not be reproduced here. Notable that Nixon pulled out a win in Greene County.

Lt. Governor:

Kinder already had spent a bit statewide to win the primary, and Montee didn’t have to spend as much in her primary. The difference between wins and losses involve the Dem losing places they should win in these kinds of elections.

Secretary of State:

Jason Kander put together enough of the usual Democratic coalition of KC, St. Louis and Sympathetic Outstate residents to move away from the recount margin by the time the last precinct reported. So despite the attacks thrown against him (“He likes Obama too much”, “He’s part of a 57 seat Democratic minority that is somehow crushing our hopes and dreams”), he wound up running 4.5% ahead of the President and winning traditionally Democratic outstate areas to get that 1.3% margin.

Treasurer:

Clint Zweifel won 3 counties that Jason Kander lost (Henry, St. Francois and Shannon), and lost one county that Kander won (Linn). Once you get to the Secretary of State/Treasurer level, concern is warranted if the upballot results are not looking as favorable as they could. Despite the difference in years, Clint Zweifel still managed to almost hit his 2008 winning percentage in 2012. Clint’s ads were some of the best statewide ads I had the chance to see this cycle (although Jay’s were good enough to inspire a defamation lawsuit).

Attorney General:

I haven’t done enough reading or research to verify this theory. But I suspect that voters who reside in state capitals sometimes defy their usual habits because they may have heard a little more about the actions that occurred in the capital city. Chris Koster won Cole County and counties all around Cole County. How much of that had to do with his time in Jeff City and how much of that has to do with the end of Ed Martin’s last job in Jeff City? Probably a bit. Koster also won 60 of 115 counties, making him the only Democrat who could claim a majority of the counties this year.

So that’s a look into how the maps looked for the statewide candidates on November 6th.

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): wait, wait, don’t tell me

09 Friday Nov 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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4th Congressional District, gasoline, missouri, Vicky Hartzler

President Obama was reelected for another four year term. What else is new? We have yet to hear from Representative Vicky Hartzler (r) about who gets blamed for falling gas prices.

The price of gas in west central Missouri on November 8, 2012.

Previously:

Vicky Hartzler (r): it’s so quiet when the price keeps dropping (October 31, 2012)

Vicky Hartzler (r): What’s that? Did you say something? Apparently not. (October 29, 2012)

Vicky Hartzler (r): the sound of silence (October 23, 2012)

The past, the gas, and isms (September 24, 2012)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): let’s pass the gas – part 2 (June 6, 2012)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): let’s pass the gas (May 27, 2012)

Morning in America

08 Thursday Nov 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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2012, election, president

This morning the Kansas City NBC affiliate ran a story on their early morning news show about a sharp increase in ammo and gun sales at a shop in Oklahoma. Seriously.

I predict a correlated increase in emergency room visits from self inflicted stupidity in the same locale.

60,662,601 votes and still counting. I’m not done with my schadenfreude dance yet.

Election 2012: 1st Senate District

08 Thursday Nov 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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1st Senate District, 2012, Jim Lembke, missouri, Scott Sifton

Via the Missouri Secretary of State:

State Senator – District 1 (106 of 106 Precincts Reported)

Scott Sifton Democrat 45,486 50.9%

Jim Lembke Republican 43,858 49.1%

Total Votes 89,344

[emphasis added]

Yes, this Jim Lembke (r) will no longer serve in the Missouri Senate come January.

Scott Sifton (D), the Senator-elect, will have a different agenda (from his campaign web site):

….”Lobbyists shower gifts, meals and trips on elected officials for one reason – it works,” said Scott Sifton. “There aren’t lobbyists for ordinary citizens in Jefferson City. We need to take the gifts-for-access model off the table.”

Sifton has never accepted a meal, trip or gift from a lobbyist – and he never will.

Sifton continued, “I agree with Republican State Senator John Lamping (R-24), who was quoted, ‘We, as elected officials, need to hold ourselves to the highest standards.'” Lamping, like Sifton, accepts no gifts, no trips, and no free meals.

“My first piece of legislation I file will be a total ban on lobbyist gifts to legislators, their staffs and their families. It has to stop.” Sifton concluded.

[emphasis added]

That would be a good start.

The stenographer: What? Did the conventional wisdom faerie whisper something in your ear?

07 Wednesday Nov 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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2012, election, media criticism, missouri, our failed media experiment, Steve Kraske

Heads or tails? In the universe of political stenography all stupid ideas or concepts have the same value as anything else.

A few days ago:

KRASKE: Forecasting all the big races, including Akin-McCaskill….

….Predictions: Obama (yeah, I’m a flip-flopper. I picked Romney in January), McCaskill, Nixon, Peter Kinder for lieutenant governor and Chris Koster for attorney general (Koster instantly becomes the 2016 gubernatorial frontrunner). KC’s own Jason Kander, a secretary of state candidate, and fellow Democrat, treasurer Clint Zweifel, get swallowed up in the pro-Romney tide in Missouri and fall short.

The cigarette tax passes….

Well, Kansas City also has the Royals and the Chiefs. Nope, the cigarette tax didn’t pass, Jason Kander (D) will be the new Secretary of State, and Clint Zweifel (D) will continue as State Treasurer.

Previously:

Too damn close, but we’ll take it (November 7, 2012)

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D): have we got a poll for you… (November 7, 2012)

Yes, he did. Again.

07 Wednesday Nov 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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2012, Obama.president

President Barack Obama (D) at a campaign rally in Cedar Rapids, Iowa on July 10, 2012.

From Molly Ivins, a while back:

Ivins: GOP ineptitude and some advice for Dems

POSTED: 5:23 p.m. EST, October 31, 2006

….First rule: No gloating. Actually, there is gloating aloud, but only in the exclusive presence of other Democrats. Gloating in the face of Republicans is rude and unsportsmanlike, and just gives them one more thing to complain about….

To hell with that. Times have changed. I’m doing a schadenfreude dance for the next four years.

Too damn close, but we’ll take it

07 Wednesday Nov 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 3 Comments

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Jason Kander, missouri, Secretary of State, Shane Schoeller

Via the Missouri Secretary of State:

Secretary of State (3380 of 3380 Precincts Reported)

Jason Kander Democrat 1,289,655 48.8%

Shane Schoeller Republican 1,256,035 47.5%

Cisse W. Spragins Libertarian 70,539 2.7%

Justin Harter Constitution 27,615 1.0%

Total Votes 2,643,844

[emphasis added]

Sometimes millionaires and billionaires just can’t make it work.

Treasurer (3380 of 3380 Precincts Reported)

Clint Zweifel Democrat 1,324,489 50.3%

Cole McNary Republican 1,197,451 45.5%

Sean O’Toole Libertarian 108,780 4.1%

Total Votes 2,630,720

[emphasis added]

That’s a little better.

Attorney General (3380 of 3380 Precincts Reported)

Chris Koster Democrat 1,482,381 55.8%

Ed Martin Republican 1,081,510 40.7%

Dave Browning Libertarian 92,465 3.5%

Total Votes 2,656,356

[emphasis added]

It’s a very scarey world when Ed Martin (r) can get over one million votes in a statewide election.

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D): have we got a poll for you…

07 Wednesday Nov 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

2012, Claire McCaskill, missouri, polling, Senate, Todd Akin

Via the Missouri Secretary of State:

U. S. Senator (3320 of 3387 Precincts Reported)

Claire McCaskill Democrat 1,442,997 54.2%

Todd Akin Republican 1,057,492 39.7%

Jonathan Dine Libertarian 163,906 6.2%

William Dean Write-in 246 0.0%

Bernard J. (Spark) Duraski, Jr. Write-in 0 0.0%

Bernie Mowinski Write-in 2 0.0%

Charlie L. Bailey Write-in 2 0.0%

Arnie C. (AC) Dienoff Write-in 0 0.0%

Ted Kimzey Write-in 1 0.0%

Total Votes 2,664,646

[emphasis added]

Why, that’s a margin of 15.5%. Go figure.

Interesting:

SurveyUSA: Claire (D) 51, Akin (r) 36 and the polling of parallel realities (November 4, 2012)

Oopsie:

PPP – 11/4/12: McCaskill (D) – 48%, Akin (r) – 44% (November 4, 2012)

And, from a Claire McCaskill (D) internal campaign poll:

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D): up by 14 points in Kiley Poll (October 27, 2012)

McCaskill – 53%

Akin – 39%

Other – 1%

Not sure – 7%

Close. And as a consequence, not even close.

Win/Win

07 Wednesday Nov 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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2012, president

President Obama wins and Mitt Romney gets something:

Daily Kos Daily@dailykos

Romney has not yet conceded. Also, has not yet released tax returns. 9:08 PM – 6 Nov 12

Election 2012: 51st Legislative District

07 Wednesday Nov 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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2012, 51st Legislative District, Dean Dohrman, Gary Grigsby, missouri

Via the Missouri Secretary of State:

State Representative – District 51 (22 of 22 Precincts Reported)

Gary L. Grigsby Democrat 6,236 46.4%

Dean A. Dohrman Republican 6,706 49.9%

Bill Wayne Libertarian 504 3.7%

Total Votes 13,446

Unlimited money and attack mail from the Missouri republican party win the day.

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