…for the next two years just to document the atrocities.

Via the Missouri Secretary of State:

U.S. Representative – District 4 (413 of 413 Precincts Reported)

Teresa Hensley Democrat 113,044 35.5%

Vicky Hartzler Republican 192,166 60.3%

Thomas Holbrook Libertarian 10,396 3.3%

Greg Cowan Constitution 2,956 0.9%

Total Votes 318,562

Today, via Twitter:

Rick Santorum ‏@RickSantorum

Today is the day for America to stop leading from behind.[….] 8:11 AM – 6 Nov 12

To which there was a reply:

FakeSarahPalin ‏@FakeSarahPalin

You know, it’s hard being a hilarious fake politician when the real ones are doing such a good job [….]11:59 AM – 6 Nov 12

And another:

Daniel X. O’Neil ‏@danxoneil

@RickSantorum stop looking at me that way, plz. 12:16 PM – 6 Nov 12.

Snark lives.

We got in line to vote at our precinct about ten minutes before the polls opened at 6:00 a.m. There were fifty to seventy people in line when they opened the doors. My voting precinct is a mixture of small town and rural addresses. There were two older men in line wearing NRA propaganda tee shirts.

It was interesting to observe the demeanor of voters as they snaked through the line to get their ballot. In past presidential elections there has been a much more jovial atmosphere. Given the demographic present this morning I was left to wonder if this was the grim resignation of the losing side.

I, on the other hand, kept a smile on my face throughout my voting experience. I voted a straight Democratic ballot, then I turned to the Governor race. I thought about that blank for a long minute. Then I voted for Jay Nixon because his opponent, Dave Spence (r) would be several orders of magnitude worse. But I had to think about it.

An hour later I drove by the precinct and realized that I had indeed made the correct decision to not leave that race blank. In that short period Dave Spence (r) campaign elves deposited yard signs at the parking lot entrances to the polling place:

A sure sign you’re losing when you invest more man hours in sign placement on election day than you do in GOTV the week leading up to it.

While legal (In Missouri the electioneering restriction is twenty-five feet from the front entrance of a polling place) this is the first time in over twenty years of voting here I’ve ever witnessed a campaign do this in my county. That’s the problem with a one size fits all approach to campaigning. Yeah, that’ll go over well with people showing up to vote in this county. But, of course, the usual republican pearl clutchers won’t complain because *IOKIYAR. If it was a Democratic Party candidate it would be an entirely different story.

And, at an intersection, just a short distance down the street from the polling place:

A lonely metaphor for the entire campaign.

* it’s okay if you’re a republican

In the 4th Congressional District.

Cass County Prosecutor Teresa Hensley (D) and Representative Vicky Hartzler (r),

the candidates in Missouri’s 4th Congressional District.

Vote for objective reality.

Posted on Sat, Oct. 27, 2012 09:39 PM

The Star’s editorial | Best picks on Missouri ballot

[….]

U.S. House, 4th District:

Teresa Hensley

Why? The Democratic challenger from Raymore has proven her talents as Cass County prosecutor. She is smarter and much more reasonable than incumbent tea party obstructionist Vicky Hartzler.

[….]

[bold emphasis in original][underline emphasis added]

Previously:

Vicky Hartzler (r): real chutzpah (October 25, 2012)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): “Benghazigate” hearing – another republican clown show (October 11, 2012)

Vicky Hartzler’s 10 Gay Marriage Analogies (August 23, 2012)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): still obsessed with those navel oranges (July 24, 2012)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): jumping on the immigration enforcement bandwagon long after the parade (June 26, 2012)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): May 4, 2012 town halls in Buffalo, Versailles, California – photos (May 6, 2012)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): the black helicopters will be dropping microchip infested toasters on us (April 8, 2012)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): comparing apples to navel oranges (February 16, 2012)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): fiddling with bulbs while the economy is about to burn (July 23, 2011)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): we’re running out of light bulb puns (July 12, 2011)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): there’s a China pattern in there somewhere (August 10, 2011)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): what’s the number of working bulbs in that chandelier? (July 11, 2011)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): evidently math skills or facts aren’t a strong suit (June 29, 2011)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): teh gay are so icky (June 5, 2011)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): town hall in Blue Springs, part 4 – Q and A (May 2, 2011)

There’s a whole lot more. Just search on “Hartzler” (no quote marks) under “Search” in the column to the left.

The right wingnut darling of the (anonymous) monied class in the Secretary of State race scored one last big check. Today, at the Missouri Ethics Commission:

C061132 11/05/2012 SCHOELLER FOR MISSOURI RSCL Missouri PAC 1800 Diagonal Rd Alexandria VA 22314 11/5/2012 $25,000.00

[emphasis added]

It’s gotta be the last one, right?

Previously:

Campaign Finance: We got your $50,000.00 right here to make it an even half a million… (November 2, 2012)

Celebrate the grassroots! Not exactly, if you’re a republican… (October 30, 2012)

Campaign Finance: why, two can play at that same game… (October 27, 2012)

Campaign Finance: Celebrate the grassroots! (October 28, 2012)

Tomorrow we chose whether or not we want to return to politics of the gilded age or if we are committed to sustaining a democracy that makes middle class prosperity possible. A few thoughts from around and about on the nature of the choice:

Greg Sargent on the “post-truth” candidate:

If there is one constant to this campaign, it’s that Romney has startled many observers by operating from the basic premise that there is literally no set of boundaries he needs to follow when it comes to the veracity of his assertions, the transparency he provides about his fundraising and finances, and the specificity of his plans for the country. […]

But this goes well beyond Romney’s claims about Obama. It also concerns what he would do as president. Romney’s own campaign has proven unable to back up the promises in his 12 million jobs plan, even though it is the centerpiece of his governing agenda and his response to the most pressing problem facing the nation. …

Jonathan Cohn on President Obama’s record:

By any reasonable standard, no president since LBJ accomplished as much on domestic policy. And LBJ didn’t have to contend with the same political obstacles. The public wasn’t as skeptical of government. Conservatives didn’t have (quite) as much power to obstruct. Obama made plenty of mistakes, about policy and about tactics, but he also fought the good fight-and, more important, he did so when it was difficult. He didn’t let the auto industry die, even though the polls said it would be unpopular. He didn’t let Republicans roll him on food stamps on Medicaid, even though it would have helped him achieve an elusive spending deal. He didn’t drop health care reform-not in January, 2009, when advisers warned him it would be difficult; not in August, 2009, when the Tea Party protests exploded; and not in January, 2010, when Scott Brown’s election made enactment seem impossible.

Obama staked his political life on these gambits. With this election, progressives can help decide whether he made the right bet. And if they don’t? The damage to progressive causes could last a long time.

Nick Kristoff on Romney and the GOP war on women:

…  But whatever we call it, something real is going on here at home that would mark a major setback for American women – and the men who love them.

On these issues, Mitt Romney is no moderate. On the contrary, he is considerably more extreme than President George W. Bush was. …

We thought so, too. *

Senator Claire McCaskill (D) (center right) and Representative Todd Akin (r) (off the chart).

Vote to insure the 21st Century continues.

Previously:

PPP – 11/4/12: McCaskill (D) – 48%, Akin (r) – 44%  (November 4, 2012)

SurveyUSA: Claire (D) 51, Akin (r) 36 and the polling of parallel realities (November 4, 2012)

Twitter can be so much fun (November 5, 2012)

* Yeah, Randy Turner came up with the idea, we just refined it.

This morning:

Randy Turner ‏@rturner229

My final thoughts on the McCaskill-Akin election- a decision on whether we go for the 21st Century or the 19th Century: http://rturner229.blogspot.com… … 5:15 AM – 5 Nov 12

Michael Bersin ‏@MBersin

@rturner229 “…a decision on whether we go for the 21st Century or the 9th Century…” Fixed it for you. 5:36 AM – 5 Nov 12

Here’s the raw numbers from SurveyUSA, 10/28-11/3/2012, for KSDK-TV, KSHB-TV, KSPR-TV and KYTV-TV, 589 likely voters:

If the election for President were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

Mitt Romney (R) 50%

Barack Obama (D) 43%

Other 4%

Undecided 3%

Missouri will also elect a Governor. If the election for Governor were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Dave Spence? Democrat Jay Nixon? Or Libertarian Jim Higgins?

Dave Spence (R) 39%

Jay Nixon (D) 48%

Jim Higgins (L) 5%

Undecided 8%

Missouri will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for US Senate were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Todd Akin? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Or Libertarian Jonathan Dine?

Todd Akin (R) 36%

Claire McCaskill (D) 51%

Jonathan Dine (L) 8%

Undecided 5%

So let’s go into the details

The first detail worth noting is that on a survey with the sample of 38% Republicans and 31% Democrats, Claire McCaskill leads by 15 points. Yes, that is possible.

SurveyUSA finds McCaskill leading by 24% (55-31) with Independents. She wins 67% of Moderates and 20% of Conservatives (81% of the electorate). She wins 47% of landlines and 61% of non-landlines. SurveyUSA uses a system where “Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop or other electronic device”.

That landline number is 47-40 Claire. That’s important, compared to the landline-only Public Policy Polling results, where Claire leads 48-44. While the whole cellphone/landline debate hasn’t exactly produced any real consensus about the impact of being landline-only or being landline/cellphone/others. The SurveyUSA numbers move closer to the PPP numbers when you compare their numbers on the exact method uses to survey voters.

(for reference: SurveyUSA landline numbers for President were 55/40 Romney and Nixon 47/Spence 45)

Another difference between SurveyUSA and Public Policy is the partisan composition of their universes.

SurveyUSAs sample: 38R/31D/29I (as noted)

PPP’s (.pdf) sample: 36R/33D/32I

So Claire’s numbers are better on a +7R SurveyUSA than a +3R PPP? Yes, that’s possible.

Public Policy says that Claire and Akin are tied with Independents and that Akin wins 79% of Republicans, instead of the 67% that SurveyUSA put in the Akin column.

If you get wild and creative, you could combine the Public Policy sample, and SurveyUSA party numbers, then you get the following numbers:

President: Romney 48, Obama 46

Senator: Claire 54, Akin 35

Governor: Nixon 50, Spence 39

If you combine the SurveyUSA sample and Public Policy numbers, you get:

President: Romney 54, Obama 43

Senator: Claire 45, Akin 45

Governor: Nixon 50, Spence 46

So that sets up a fun little universe of possibilities if you mix your drinks. (Although the Romney v. Obama numbers from Mason-Dixon were the same as Blunt/Carnahan numbers (54/41). But that’s Mason-Dixon.)

If Claire McCaskill finishes ahead of Jay Nixon, the SurveyUSA method is going to be vindicated and/or we will have wound up in a world we didn’t expect to be in back on August 7th.

If she doesn’t do that well, then the universe continues undisturbed. Because it’s not like the varying success of non-landline methods has stopped Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov, and other online-friendly pollsters. Sometimes pollsters like SurveyUSA get a direct hit (McCain 48, Obama 48). Sometimes they miss slightly (Claire 51, Talent 42). Polling is sort of like a science.

The Presidential race in Missouri is pretty much two campaigns who only run ads in the parts of Missouri whose TV stations cover Iowa. But in all likelyhood, the better Obama does, the better the rest of the Democrats do in the election and the Missouri Democratic ticket probably runs slightly ahead of Obama.

In 2012, We live in a very surreal state. And in a few days, we’ll begin the process of forgetting Todd Akin, Dave Spence and Mitt Romney.