There was a republican senate candidate sorta debate today in Kansas City:

Sean Nicholson @ssnich

Hope today’s #MOSen forum sorts out who’ll be best able to avoid voters from Aug-Nov while Karl Rove spends a gazillion dollars on TV. 10:58 AM – 18 Feb 12

John Brunner’s (r) senate campaign issued a statement today after the soiree:

The Brunner for Senate campaign today shined a light on Sarah Steelman’s recently released list of policy proposals, showing they are nothing more than a cut, copy, and paste job of what nearly every other Republican federal candidate and incumbent supports — including John Brunner….

Think about that for a second.

He’s accusing one of his republican primary opponents of having the same “policy proposals” as every other republican candidate, including himself. If you’re a republican isn’t that the point? And as if John Brunner is the index case of the republican party?

Senator Roy Blunt (r) via Twitter:

Senator Roy Blunt @RoyBlunt

When Pres Obama took office in ’09 average gas prices were $1.89/ gal. What have prices increased to in your area? [….] 11:24 AM – 17 Feb 12

He links to a right wing website story with the headline “Republicans pounce as gas prices climb”.

The U.S. Energy Information Agency, Gasoline Components History:

Month/Year Retail Price (Dollars per gallon)

Jan-00 1.289

Jan-01 1.447

Jan-02  1.107

Jan-03 1.458

Jan-04 1.572

Jan-05 1.831

Jan-06 2.316

Jan-07 2.24

Jan-08 3.043

Jan-09 1.788

Jan-10 2.715

Jan-11 3.095

Dec-11 3.266

During dubya’s eight years the price went from $1.447 in January 2001 to $4.062 in July 2008, then the economy collapsed. When the economy collapses gas prices can collapse, when the economy recovers those prices can also recover.

U.S. retail gasoline prices (in dollars) by month from January 2000 to December 2011.

That drop after the highest peak is dubya’s recession.

There can be other variables which contribute to changes in gasoline prices, like declining demand:

February 17, 2012 2:33 PM

A Gasoline Conspiracy to Set Fire to the Obama Administration?

By Rick Ungar

….Americans are using less gasoline than they have at any time in the last fifteen years. Currently, we burn up 8 percent less gas than we did during the peak year of 2006 while most experts expect the trend to continue to where we will be using 20 percent less gasoline by 2030.

Says Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service,

Strangely, the current run-up in prices comes despite sinking demand in the U.S. Petrol demand is as low as it’s been since April 1997. People are properly puzzled by the fact that we’re using less gas than we have in years, yet we’re paying more.

….And, to be sure, an improving domestic economy typically results in higher oil prices as demand begins to rise. However, experts seem to agree that even this will not return us to our high’s of 2006….

….According to Kloza, a healthy percentage of the increase is the result of speculative money flowing into gasoline futures contracts since the beginning of the year, mostly coming from hedge fund and big money mangers. “We’ve seen about $11 billion of speculative money come in on the long side of gas futures,” Kloza says. “Each of the last three weeks we’ve seen a record net long position being taken….”

….While Wall Street’s ‘priority one’ is to make money, it is clear that, for this year, priority two is the destruction of Barack Obama’s presidency. Accordingly, from a Wall Street point of view, it certainly is a happy coincidence that that priority one, making big money on oil speculation, could directly lead to accomplishing their second highest mission.

I am left to wonder whether this is a happy Wall Street coincidence or a clever strategy that could pay off big-time come November….

[emphasis added]

Speculation. And other goals, fancy that, the same as those of Senator Roy Blunt (r).

Sounds like a plan.

We all know that Republicans managed, in some circles at least, to turn “stimulus” into a dirty word. Missouri Republicans are no exception. A few of them used the third anniversary of the stimulus, along with the presentation of President Obama’s budget, to try to freshen up the tired old refrain they’ve been singing for the past three years.

Here’s senatorial wannabe Todd Akin on the topic:

In 2009, I opposed the ill-fated and now notorious “stimulus” plan. This legislation placed an additional $787 billion atop already record debt levels, without any realistic promise of actual long term job creation or stabilization of our economy. If government spending was truly the answer to our problems, we should now have a booming economy. Despite the Obama spending spree, reported unemployment lingers around 9%, and real unemployment hangs closer to 20%. Spending only makes our economic woes worse

Vicky Hartzler’s statement marking the third anniversary of the stimulus:

Today’s third anniversary of the signing into law of President Obama’s failed stimulus bill should serve as a stark reminder that the President’s policies have failed and are making the economy worse. He told us that with approval of the stimulus our unemployment rate would never reach 8 percent. Sadly, the country’s jobless rate has been above 8 percent for 36 straight months – the longest period of sustained unemployment since the Great Depression. The number of Americans on food stamps is at an all time high, while the number of new business start-ups is at a 17-year low. President Obama got the spending he asked for, but the American people never got the jobs they were promised. House Republicans have passed nearly 30 job-creation bills that are being blocked by the Senate. It is time for the Senate to say ‘yes’ to House policies that will create jobs and to say ‘no’ to the President’s tried and failed ideas.

Roy Blunt used the President’s new budget as an opportunity to go after the idea of stimulus as well:

More spending. Higher unemployment. Record debt. That’s what we have to show for the Obama Economy and the so-called “stimulus” debacle.

Notice the differing unemployment baseline above? Nobody’s lying, just trying to finesse the fact that unemployment numbers have been steadily improving and have reached the lowest number in four years – since, in fact, GOP “free market” policies wrecked the economy. Looks mightily like the members of the Grand Old Party might have been dragged, kicking and screaming, into an economic recovery.

What do real economists say about the stimulus and the role it played in saving our bacon? Ezra Klein summarizes several recent efforts to assess the stimulus and finds that they are overwhelmingly thumbs up about the stimulus. Specifically:

The University of Chicago’s Booth business school recently surveyed the nation’s top economists, and the vast majority agreed that the economy would be in worse shape today without the stimulus.

Or, if the University of Chicago isn’t good enough for you, try the Council of Economic Advisor who recently found (pdf) that:

… there would’ve been between 2.2 million and 4.2 million fewer Americans employed if the [stimulus] bill had never passed. (They round up a number of studies from places like the CBO, Moody’s, Goldman Sachs and so forth.)

Klein also offers:

…Dylan Matthew’s comprehensive round-up of nine economic studies of the stimulus bill. Of those, six found a significant positive effect on growth and unemployment, while three found either a small or hard-to-predict effect.

Now I know that the “counter-factual,” as Klein calls it is no more than figures and facts, and as such, carries no weight with the Tea Party Constitutional scholars that Akin, Hartzler, Blunt, et al. are targeting with their, by now, Pavlovian evocations of stimulus, but I know who I believe. And this is why:

The economy is improving whether conservatives like it or not (http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/On-the-Economy/2012/0210/The-economy-is-improving-whether-conservatives-like-it-or-not (The Christian Science monitor)

Bail-Out Politics: Even Michigan’s Economy Is Improving (ABC News: The Note)

U.S. Economic Confidence Best in a Year (Gallup Economy)

Thursday, at the Missouri Ethics Commission::

C121046 02/16/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR ED MARTIN Rudolph Farber 100 North Wood Street Neosho MO 64850 CBT 2/16/2011 $1,000.00

[emphasis added]

Picture Ed Martin (r) as Attorney General.

Yesterday, at the Missouri Ethics Commission::

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER CHIPP Political Fund 1401 Hampton Ave Floor 3 Saint Louis MO 63139 2/15/2012 $15,000.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Callaway Holdings, LLC 12122 County Road 4040 Holts Summit MO 65043 2/15/2012 $1,000.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Missouri Asphalt Pavement Association PAC P.O. Box 104855 1221 Jefferson Street Jefferson City MO 65109 2/16/2012 $1,000.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Iron Workers Local #10 PAC 1000 E. 10th St Kansas City MO 64106 2/16/2012 $1,000.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER J. Shelby Bryan 2121 Kirby Dr. Unit 4W Houston TX 77019 Self Communications Executive 2/16/2012 $1,000.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Alan Kreke P.O. Box 961 O Fallon IL 62269 Marathon Financial Insurance Company Owner 2/16/2012 $3,500.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Patti Kreke 9922 Tad St. Lebanon IL 62254 Marathon Financial Insurance Company Accountant 2/16/2012 $3,500.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Pamela Rakers 14740 Lake Branch Rd. Breese IL 62230 Marathon Financial Insurance Company Secretary 2/16/2012 $3,500.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Stephen Durr 7486 Birch Bridge Drive Saint Louis MO 63129 Service Protection Direct Executive 2/16/2012 $3,500.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER David E. Simpson 15743 Country Ridge Dr. Chesterfield MO 63017 Naviss LLC Insurance Broker 2/16/2012 $2,500.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Clayton R. Logomasini 107 Rathfarnum Dr. Weldon Spring MO 63304 Naviss LLC Insurance Broker 2/16/2012 $2,500.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Jason M Chrisco 10176 Corporate Square Dr. Suite 240 Saint Louis MO 63132 Naviss LLC Insurance Broker 2/16/2012 $2,500.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Geoffrey P Reusch 3019 Thornbury Dr. Saint Louis MO 63131 Service Protection Direct Executive 2/16/2012 $3,500.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Gene Bentrup 1263 Charmwood Dr. Saint Louis MO 63122 Service Protection Direct Sales Executive 2/16/2012 $3,500.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER John Patrick McKenny 18389 Lamar Ave. Stilwell KS 66085 Assured Vehicle Protection Owner 2/16/2012 $2,500.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Joseph Michae McKenny 1003 W. 68th Terr Kansas City MO 64113 Assured Vehicle Protection Owner 2/16/2012 $2,500.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Michael Hall 24 Lambeth Lane O Fallon MO 63368 American Automotive Service Solutions Executive 2/16/2012 $2,500.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER Jarrett Bell 6 Twin Hollow Ct. O Fallon MO 63366 American Automotive Service Solutions Owner 2/16/2012 $2,500.00

C031159 02/17/2012 MISSOURIANS FOR KOSTER JD Ghelfi 4545 N. 52nd Place Phoenix AZ 85018 VSC 360 Software Developer 2/16/2012 $1,000.00

[emphasis added]

Laughter may have something to do with it, too.

Blunt Instrument

Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri is a dolt who currently should be learning to run the Slurpee machine at a convenience store on a logging road outside of Branson, and not fouling the atmosphere of the World’s Greatest Deliberative Body….

….Oh, and not for nothing, but isn’t the fact that Blunt has to make this particularly stupid argument in defense of his completely stupid bill an admission that what a lot of people are saying about his completely stupid bill is true.

Legislatamalism is so confusing.

That’s so unfair to convenience store employees.

Today, via Twitter:

Rep. Vicky Hartzler @RepHartzler

Today is the 3rd Anniversary of Pres. Obama’s failed stimulus pkg. that put us almost $1 trillion in debt w/o new jobs. 3:20 PM – 17 Feb 12

What color is the sky in her world?

Uh:

Chart of the Day: Another Milestone in the Resurgence of the American Auto Industry

February 16, 2012

02:30 PM EST

Today, we learned that each of the Big Three automakers posted a yearly profit for 2011. For the first time since 2004, all of those companies are operating in the black.

But those aren’t the only milestones we’ve seen recently in the resurgence of the American auto industry. Or in the comeback of the American manufacturing sector.

The January 2012 jobs report released earlier this month included another little-noticed milestone. The number of auto industry jobs added since GM and Chrysler emerged from bankruptcy after June 2009 now exceeds 200,000 – marking the strongest period of auto jobs growth since the late 1990s. That positive trend is particularly strong in the motor vehicle and parts manufacturing sector, which has added 121,900 jobs – a nearly 20 percent increase – since June 2009. And that growth is particularly notable given that some experts estimated that at least 1 million jobs could have been lost if GM and Chrysler had been liquidated….

The Employment Situation in January

Posted by Alan Krueger on February 03, 2012 at 09:31 AM EST

….The unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage point to 8.3%, from a high of 10% in October 2009. The drop in unemployment over the month was entirely due to employment growth, as the labor force participation rate remained constant, once new population weights are taken into account.  The unemployment rate has fallen by 0.8 percentage point in the last 12 months. Private sector payrolls increased by 257,000 jobs and overall payroll employment rose by 243,000 jobs in January. Despite adverse shocks that have created headwinds for economic growth, the economy has added private sector jobs for 23 straight months, for a total of 3.7 million payroll jobs over that period. In the last 12 months, 2.2 million private sector jobs were added on net.  Nonetheless, we need faster growth to put more Americans back to work.

Sectors with net job increases in December included professional and business services (+70,000), manufacturing (+50,000), leisure and hospitality (+44,000), health care and social assistance (+29,700), and construction (+21,000).  Government lost 14,000 jobs….

Objective reality has never been a strong suit for Representative Hartzler (r).

Yesterday, at the Missouri Ethics Commission:

C091145 02/16/2012 FRIENDS OF PETER KINDER JOHN WALLACE 10420 WHITEBRIDGE LN ST LOUIS MO 63141 RETIRED 2/16/2012 $1,500.00

[emphasis added]

Laissez les bons temps rouler.

Today, via Twitter:

Rep. Vicky Hartzler @RepHartzler

Sec of Navy: budget calls for same no. of naval vessels 5 yrs. from now w/ more capabilities. Still fewer than WWI. 12:16 PM – 16 Feb 12

[emphasis added]

U.S.Navy Active Ship Force Levels, 1917-1923

11/11/18

Battleship 39

Monitors, Coastal 7

Cruisers 31

Destroyers 110

Frigates 17

Submarines 80

Mine Warfare 53

Patrol 350

Auxiliary 87

Surface Warships 204

Total Active 774

The last Coast Defense Monitor went out of commission in 1921.

[emphasis added]

U.S.Navy Active Ship Force Levels, 2007 to 2011

9/30/11

Carriers 11  

Cruisers 22

Destroyers 61

Frigates 26  

LCS * 2

Submarines 53

SSBN 14

SSGN 4  

Mine Warfare 14  

Amphibious 31  

Auxiliary 47  

Surface Warships 122    

Total Active 285  

* Littoral Combat Ship

[emphasis added]

Yeah, you know, like the Boomers and Fast Attack submarines just don’t have the same glamor of the dreadnoughts.  

Introduced today by Senator Jim Lembke (r):

SB 808 Implements recall elections for U.S. Senators

Sponsor: Lembke

LR Number: 5129S.01I Fiscal Note not available

Committee:

Last Action: 2/16/2012 – S First Read–SB 808-Lembke Journal Page: S276

Title: Calendar Position: 15

Effective Date: August 28, 2012

Current Bill Summary

SB 808 – This act authorizes legal voters to petition for a recall election for United States senators. Petitions shall be signed by at least 8% of voters in each of 3/4 of the congressional districts, the total number of voters being based on the number of votes cast for the incumbent at the last preceding election in which he or she was elected.

If an election is held, opposing candidates are then nominated as if in an election to fill a vacancy and the incumbent shall continue to serve until the election results are declared. The election shall be held on the next day available for holding public elections that occurs at least 10 weeks after the Secretary of State verifies the petition. Senators are only subject to one recall per term.

Uh, there’s one tiny little problem with this bill:

Congressional Research Service

Recall of Legislators and the Removal of Members of Congress from Office [pdf]

January 5, 2012

….Although the Supreme Court has not needed to directly address the subject of recall of Members of Congress, other judicial decisions indicate that the right to remove a Member of Congress before the expiration of his or her constitutionally established term of office is one which resides within each house of Congress as expressly delegated in the expulsion clause of the United States Constitution, and not in the entire Congress as a whole (through the adoption of legislation), nor in the state legislatures through the enactment of recall provisions. In Burton v. United States, the Supreme Court ruled that a provision of federal law which on its face purported to make one convicted of bribery “ineligible” to be a United States Senator, could not act as a forfeiture of a Senator’s office, since the only way to remove a Member under the Constitution was by the Senate exercising its authority over its own Members:

The seat into which he was originally inducted as a Senator from Kansas could only become vacant by his death, or by expiration of his term of office, or by some direct action on the part of the Senate in the exercise of its constitutional powers.

[202 U.S. 344 (1906)]

[referring to U.S. Term Limits, Inc. v. Thornton, 514 U.S. 779 (1995)]:

….As explained in Justice Thomas’ dissent, an individual state does not possess the authority to effectuate a recall to cut short the term of a sitting Member of the United States Congress, and such Member is beyond the reach of the people of the state “until the next election”:

In keeping with the complexity of our federal system, once the representatives chosen by the people of each State assemble in Congress, they form a national body and are beyond the control of the individual States until the next election.

The dissent in the Term Limits case thus conceded that, regardless of their view of the authority of each state in setting qualifications or conditions on the “selection of Members of Congress” under the Tenth Amendment, once a Member of Congress is seated, such a Member is not subject to recall, and the only way to remove that Member prior to the expiration of his term is expressly delegated to that Member’s house of Congress in the expulsion clause of Article I, Section 5. As again explained by Justice Thomas, even if a state wishes to “punish one of its Senators … for his vote on some bill … The Senator would still be able to serve out his term; the Constitution provides for Senators to be chosen for 6-year terms … and a person who has been seated in Congress can be removed only if two-thirds of the Members of his House vote to expel him….

So much for originalist intent. Yet, wasting legislative time and energy is certainly still in vogue.

Previously: Rep. Shane Schoeller (r): reading comprehension isn’t a strong point (January 12, 2012)

Yesterday, at the Missouri Ethics Commission:

C061132 02/15/2012 SCHOELLER FOR MISSOURI The Missouri Society of Anesthesiologists PAC PO Box 1402 Jefferson City MO 65102 2/14/2012 $1,500.00

C061132 02/15/2012 SCHOELLER FOR MISSOURI Peter Herschend 538 Oak Bluff Road Branson MO 65616 Silver Dollar City Principle 2/15/2012 $5,000.00

[emphasis added]

Anesthesia. Somehow that makes sense.