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Tag Archives: Election 2016

Can Ann Wagner carry a wounded Roy Blunt to victory?

27 Thursday Oct 2016

Posted by willykay in Uncategorized

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Ann Wagner, Election 2016, Jason Kander, Political advertising, Political mailers, Roy Blunt

GOP Senator Roy Bunt and Rep. Ann Wagner are pairing up. In a series of glossy mailers the two jointly take on various policy issues like health care and energy policy about which they spoon out predictable GOP talking points that have mostly been repudiated ad nauseum.

But why together? A money saving twofer? Eh … maybe. But they’ve both got big campaign war chests, bigger than the other guy in both cases, and Blunt is now getting all that dark money support from out-of-state billionaires and their pet PACS.

Maybe the beleaguered Blunt hopes that some of Wagner’s surburban cachet will rub off by association. Wagner’s odds of being re-elected are pretty good. Blunt? Not so much. Today on the Diane Rehm show a prognosticator actually said that Blunt would probably go down. Democrat Jason Kander may very well take his place in Washington.

Wagner only has to please the more moderate, but still relatively conservative, surburban constituents in the second district. She’s good at playing it safe and dishing out treacle that goes down smoothly in that environment. She may do Big Banking’s bidding, for example, but she always couches her efforts to help the big guys as somehow beneficial to the little guy . Her syrupy newsletters rarely even bother to mention her hardcore legislative activities except every once in a while and in the mildest of terms.

Blunt on the other hand, engaged in a state-wide race, has to satisfy both sides of a splintering GOP. On one side he’s got the Trump brigade – which hasn’t been too happy with his corporatist, big-money first approach since their earlier Tea Party days. On the other side are GOP centrists who aren’t too pleased by his detente with the Trumpist barbarians at the GOP gate.

Of course outcomes are often unexpected. Could Blunt possibly put an unwelcome spotlight on Wagner and her retrograde policy positions?

In a just world, maybe.

Eric Greitens: All hat and no cattle?

20 Thursday Oct 2016

Posted by willykay in Uncategorized

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American Policy Coalition, Dark money, Election 2016, Eric Greitens., missouri, SEALs, SEALs for Truth

Texas political grande dame Ann Richards memorably pigeon-holed George W. Bush as being all hat and no cattle. It appears that we in Missouri may have another he-man poseur waving a great big, empty hat as he enters the political arena. I’m referring to ex-Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, the Missouri GOP gubernatorial candidate.

Pay special attention to the ex-Navy SEAL label because that’s the metaphorical hat our hero flourishes. Greitens really was a SEAL and deserves all the respect that such a resume implies, although it doesn’t necessarily imply fitness to be governor. But the inexperienced political novice seems to think brandishing a glamorous past military affiliation is all it takes to persuade Missourians that he is qualified to begin his political career way up near the top as leader of the State.

With ads that showed him Ramboing corrupt Jefferson City political culture with very big explosive devices, he revealed that he thinks that Missourians are so mired in Billy Bob culture that they will prefer movie-style, tough-guy bombast over real leadership credentials. Who better to strong-arm the bad guys (and fearful right-wing culture is replete with bad guys) than a gun-toting Navy SEAL. (Of course, the fact that his promise to attack corrupt political culture with big guns means that he would have to take aim at most of his own GOP political colleagues may have soured his candidacy somewhat for some Republicans.)

Lately, however, Greitens himself has come under suspicion of bending ethical rules when it comes to his own fundraising.

A federal political action committee called “SEALs for Truth” cut Greitens a $1.9 million check prior to the Aug. 2 Republican primary. According to a disclosure form filed with the Federal Elections Commission, all of the group’s money came from a Washington, D.C.,-based nonprofit called the American Policy Coalition Inc.

The American Policy Coalition website contains no information about the group at all, and it appears to have filed no paperwork with either the FEC or the Missouri Ethics Commission. But the group is connected to an Ohio attorney who the Center for Public Integrity labeled the “nexus of one of the nation’s most mysterious networks pouring secret money into elections.”

Where the money actually came from may never be known.

Not too cool for a candidate who’s tried to play holier-than-thou when it comes to political corruption. But the part that really burns is the name of Greitens’ SEALs for Truth PAC. Turns out that the PAC likely doesn’t have anything to do with SEALs at all, a fact that the PAC and  Greitens seemed to want to obfuscate:

In a statement released by “SEALs for Truth” shortly after making its donation to Greitens, it claimed former Navy SEALs made up “the largest number of donors to our organization.”

Greitens, a former Navy SEAL, also hinted during a meeting in August with the Missouri Farm Bureau that the group’s money came from Navy SEALs, saying “I’m honored to have my fellow SEALs standing behind me.”

Now why would any SEALs want to keep their pro-Greitens fervor secret? Could it be because there are no SEALs as such, just very rich individuals behind the single large donation to the PAC,  individuals who really, really want things like right-to-work-for-less for Missouri?

In fact, speaking of SEALs, some of the fraternity have been more than a little annoyed about the efforts of Greitens and other former SEALs to exploit their association with the group

Now, Mr. Greitens, seeking the Republican nomination, finds himself in a battle with some former comrades, who charged in a slickly produced YouTube video that he exaggerated his record and was unduly benefiting from his time in the SEALs. The dispute lays bare a widening rift among Navy SEALs, provoked by what leaders and many in the ranks describe as rampant commercial and personal exploitation of a brotherhood that once prized discretion.

But, hey, what’s a man with no cattle going to do if he can’t put on an impressive hat? Opportunists gotta do what opportunists do.

Blunt sticks with Trump

08 Saturday Oct 2016

Posted by willykay in Uncategorized

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Donald Trump, Election 2016, missouri, Roy Blunt

According to an article in Talking Points Memo, Republican Senator Roy Blunt will continue to endorse Donald Trump in spite of the recent brouhaha about what fellow Missouri Republican Ann Wagner terms Trump’s “predatory and reprehensible comments” about women. Blunt’s rationale is … Obama:

“I am glad to see that he understands more about the country now than he believes he did when this process started,” Blunt said, referring to a comment Trump made in his apology for the remarks. “I think if you want to solve the problems that have been created over the last eight years, you can’t have a third Obama administration. So he needs to be vigorous in explaining how he is a different man than that person, but how he hopes to lead the country and I think he may very well get that done.”

Problems that have been created over the last eight years? Like bringing a depression-bound economy back from the dead, pushing unemployment figures to less than 5%, and encouraging a steadily expanding economy? There’s lots more of that type of problem on the record and it was all accomplished despite record levels of GOP obstruction in which Roy Blunt was an enthusiastic participant. Close to 55% of Americans now approve of Obama’s performance in office. So, as far as a “third Obama administration” goes – preferably one without Roy Blunt in the Senate – why not?

But enough. We all know that the real reason for Blunt’s fealty to Trump lies in the fact that Missouri is one of those states where Trump is riding high and likely to continue to do so. The latest Emerson Poll has Trump up 13% in Missouri; Blunt hasn’t got any problem with those coattails and he’s gambling that a tape telling the red-meat eaters what we already knew about Trump won’t cut them off too short.

Ann Wagner, who has renounced Trump in the wake of the recent revelations must appeal to more moderate, suburban St. Louis voters who were already disturbed by Trump. Blunt, however, faced with a strong Democratic challenger in Jason Kander who, arguably, has some cross-over appeal to more moderate Republicans, can’t afford to dampen his support among the Trump-loving, out-state Republican base.

But, for the record, Blunt did say that Trump’s remarks “were disrespectful and inappropriate.” It’s called covering your backside.

Ann Wagner has had a change of heart – a day late and a dollar short

08 Saturday Oct 2016

Posted by willykay in Uncategorized

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Ann Wagner, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Mike Pence, missouri

Breaking news from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch: country-club Republican, Ann Wagner (R-2) has had a change of heart and will no longer support Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. The occasion for her newfound disdain was the exposure of Trump’s decade-old more explicitly sleazy than usual comments about women:

I have committed my short time in Congress to fighting for the most vulnerable in our society. As a strong and vocal advocate for victims of sex trafficking and assault, I must be true to those survivors and myself and condemn the predatory and reprehensible comments of Donald Trump, […]  I withdraw my endorsement and call for Governor Pence to take the lead so we can defeat Hillary Clinton.

Laudable, but, one can only ask, why now? Why didn’t the stream of bigotry, racism and misogyny that have emanated from Trump over the past few months lead Wagner to disavow him as the leader of her party long ago? This is a woman who, up to now has been willing to support a candidate endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan , giving him her vote with only a few, pro forma quivers of trepidation.

Do you think that maybe that the last sentence in the quote above might have something to do with Wagner’s sudden willingness to make a hard turn on a candidate whose essential unfitness for office has been obvious from day one?

The faint whiff of Republican defeat in November has now become an overwhelming stench and, like rats too timid to leap pell-mell from their sinking boat, many GOPers hope that Pence might just be just the life-preserver the party and their own, individual political fortunes need if they are to emerge unscathed from association with Trump. And this latest piece of Trumpian nastiness, along with Pence’s self-aggrandizing performance at last Tuesday’s vice-presidential debate, offers just the opportunity they have needed.

Pence emerged as the hero of the Republican day when he coolly abandoned Trump during his debate with the Democratic vice-presidential candidate, Tim Kaine, last Tuesday. With almost breathtaking audacity, he substituted his own policy prescriptions for the incoherent ramblings of Donald Trump and earned widespread huzzahs for the cold-blooded smoothness with which he left his running mate twisting in the wind.

Many commentators have suggested that Pence did what he did in an effort to raise his profile for 2020. He was, in effect, preparing to make future lemonade out of an admittedly over-sized lemon. However, pols like Wagner want their lemonade right now and they think they can get away with flipping the ticket – even at this late date, an action that, as Akhil Reed Amar suggests in Vox, might be plausible if they act fast.

What this suggests to me is that now that the power struggles that animate the opportunistic GOP hacks have been bared for all to see it is, as they say, time to pass the popcorn.

Bosnians in Missouri might check Trump and his Missouri Trumpsters

04 Sunday Sep 2016

Posted by willykay in Uncategorized

≈ 3 Comments

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Bosnian immigrants, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Eric Greitens., missouri, St. Louis

Back in August I noted that GOP gubernatorial candidate Eric Greitens seemed to be trying to retroactively relocate his student vounteer work in Croatia to Bosnia. It seemed likely that he thought this little fib might influence the large Bosnian community in and around St. Louis -one of the largest in the country – to view his candidacy more favorably.

Greitens might have been on to something when it comes to courting the Bosnian bloc. The question is whether a fictitious volunteer stint in Bosnia will counter the negative appeal of Donald Trump at a time when presidential coattails can lead to victory or defeat. Apropos of which, the U.S. edition of The Guardian is carrying a story today about how the Bosnian community might bring about Trump’s downfall in Missouri.

It doesn’t take a genius to understand why Trump might roil emotions among Bosnians. Most of the local Bosnians are relatively recent immigrants and they are predominantly Muslims. Trump’s anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim shtick is likely not only unappealing, but probably downright scary:

While never a monolith, Bosnian Americans in St Louis – which is home to an estimated 50,000 to 70,000 Bosnian Muslims – have near-universally been put off by Trump’s anti-Muslim, anti-refugee rhetoric and are wary of the Republican candidate’s popularity among Serbian nationalists. If they are mobilized as a bloc to vote against Trump for these reasons, 2016 could mark the national debut of Missouri’s “Bosnian vote”, costing Trump the state’s 10 electoral votes.

[… .] Anecdotally, community leaders estimate that voter registration in St Louis’s Bosnian community has surged by the thousands over the past two years.

The Guardian goes further and speculates that this election might help to solidify the longer-term political importance of an emerging Bosnian voting bloc:

Historically, Missouri has been a swing state, though is often assumed by pundits to be a Republican giveaway. In 2008, Republican John McCain won the state’s electoral votes by a margin of less than 1% – mere thousands of votes. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney won the state by 10%, but liberal Democrat Claire McCaskill also kept her seat in the US Senate by more than 15%. The state also has a Democrat governor.

In recent years, Bosnian voters in St Louis have asserted themselves as a potent force in local politics, and politicians – mainly Democrats – have taken notice.

One can only hope that The Guardian’s speculations bear Democratic fruit in Missouri this year, and that, as an added bonus, Greitens goes down too, tangled in Trump’s flimsy coattails if not because he’s an opportunistic poseur.

Does Roy Blunt really want to run on his record?

13 Saturday Aug 2016

Posted by willykay in Uncategorized

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Donald Trump, Election 2016, Medicare, Montsanto, Roy Blunt

Contrary to my earlier speculation that Roy Blunt may be warming to The Donald, Jim Salter at TPM thinks that Blunt is still trying to tread the treacherous GOP waters and avoid going under:

It’s tough enough for the political veteran seeking re-election against up-and-coming Democrat Jason Kander, Missouri’s secretary of state who is showing surprising strength in the polls and in raising money. The string of recent controversies involving Donald Trump, who Blunt has endorsed, doesn’t help.

Like many of his Senate GOP colleagues, Blunt, who served seven terms in the House before his election to the Senate in 2010, prefers to talk about his own record and agenda, not Trump’s.

Blunt’s record and agenda? Good luck with that.

Blunt’s got a record for sure, stretching from his glory days as Tom Delay’s bagman to his more recent efforts to assist his corporate donors. Take for example, Blunt’s relationship to Montsanto, one of his biggest funders. In 2013 Blunt covertly slipped a controversial goodie for Montsanto, a rider now known as the Montsanto Protection Act, into a totally unrelated bill. And he’s still at it, having recently used his position on the Senate Appropriations Committee to block a vote to repeal a second Montsanto Protection Act.

Of course, since his Democratic opponent, Jason Kander, has been gaining on him during the past year, he’s made some effort to soften his reputation. For instance, Kander served in Afghanistan while Blunt evaded service in Vietnam, his generations’ Asian war. Not a good resume bullet in patriotic Missouri. So what does Blunt do? He makes a big deal about supporting veterans, such as joining the GOP’s exaggerated VA pile-on, huffing and puffing about the agency’s supposed shortcomings although he conveniently forgot to remind folks that he voted to withhold funds from the over-stressed VA that would have alleviated its staffing and service problems.

Or take Medicare. Blunt did a favor for the Federation of American Hospitals, a for-profit hospital lobbying group, and in return the organization ran an ad in the St. Louis Post Dispatch lauding him as a savior of seniors and Medicare – a doubtful proposition in itself, and even more bogus when viewed in conjunction with Blunt’s past record on Medicare (see also here and here) which is, to say the least, dismal.

What else is there?  He supports the NRA’s worst excesses and wants to destroy corporate and financial regulations that protect Americans. Depending on your point of  view that might comprise either an acceptable or a frightening agenda.

So let Blunt shine a light on his record and agenda while he attempts to diminish the Trump phenomenon. But tell me again – how does that record and agenda separate him from the dishonest, NRA-loving,  anti-regulation, corporate deal-making Trump?

So is it worse to have a black soul or to be soulless?

02 Tuesday Aug 2016

Posted by willykay in Uncategorized

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Donald Trump, Election 2016, Khizr Khan, Roy Blunt

Recently, in response to Donald Trump’s angry sputtering about Khizr Khan’s remarks at the Democratic Nominating Convention, Khan, father of a fallen soldier, said that Trump “is a black soul.” Given that Trump, who seemed to feel an urgent need to respond, chose to level vicious, personal attacks against Khan and his wife, both grieving the death of their son, rather than calmly try to refute their concerns about his apparent lack of basic American values, Khan’s response seems reasonably apt. Trump’s Khan-inspired vitriol has been almost universally condemned – even leading one Republican congressman to declare that Trump is a “national embarrassment” and that he will switch his vote to Hillary Clinton.

All of which leads us to the response of our own Republican Senator, Roy Blunt. Blunt, who used student deferments to sit out the Vietnam War, conceded that war is hard on parents, recalling “how much I worried about my son Matt during his years of active duty.” He quickly shifted, however, to the question of how best to win political contests, adding that “my advice to Donald Trump has been and will continue to be to focus on jobs and national security and stop responding to every criticism, whether it’s from a grieving family or Hillary Clinton.” And the Devil take the hindmost.

The whole Trumpalooza has been hard on Blunt, who has been reduced to the metaphorical equivalent of mumbling softly into corners lest folks really hear his responses to the Trump phenomena. From the beginning he has tried to waffle while avoiding the appearance of waffling. He gave Trump a weak endorsement, but didn’t attend the conference and has otherwise tried to keep his head down. He doesn’t want to offend the rabid out-state Trumpkins, but knows that, given his tightening race against Democrat Jason Kander, neither can he offend the more liberal, urban Missourians who are everyday more and more appalled by the Trump spectacle.

It’s important to note that Blunt in no way repudiated his earlier endorsement of Trump or explicitly condemned Trump’s ugly display; instead, he murmured a few conciliatory cliches and then got down to the political money-man’s meat-and-potatoes, how to pull the wool over the public’s eyes. Trump may be a black soul, but at least he is what he is openly, unlike Blunt, a manipulative operator who managed to translate a series of inhumane insults into a question of political decorum.

Trump may be a “black soul,” but, by the same measure, shouldn’t we consider a man to be utterly soulless who confronts that black soul without revulsion but instead with an eye to his own benefit.

 

What they’re saying about Trump’s Cleveland Sturm und Drang fest

21 Thursday Jul 2016

Posted by willykay in Uncategorized

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Donald Trump, Election 2016, Republican Convention

For the past three days I’ve been transfixed with horror as I’ve watched the people who want to run our country lie and rage, egged on by Donald Trump, who thinks that the goal of the whole event was to demonstrate “the fact that I’m very well liked.” I’m not alone. Lot’s of commentators seem to have been gobsmacked by the spectacle to which Trump and the RNC have subjected us. Consequently, I’m going to deviate from my usual focus on what’s going on in Missouri and survey a few of the more telling responses to the Cleveland Carnival and to the Carny-in-Chief behind it all:

David Leonhardt (New York Times):

Screaming matches between delegates. Past nominees who refused to attend. Speakers who seem allergic to mentioning the nominee’s name – or policies. The runner-up refusing to endorse the winner.

Plagiarism. Lies about plagiarism. Talk of Lucifer from the stage. Humanizing stories about the nominee relegated to obscure time slots. Multiple speakers calling for the jailing of the opposing nominee. A prominent delegate calling for that nominee’s execution by firing squad.

It’s time to ask where the Republican National Convention of 2016 ranks on the list of modern history’s worst political conventions.

Josh Marshall (Talking Point Memo):

Trump brings together aggression and narcissism with a kind of militant ignorance which can be harmless or even amusing in the make believe world of reality TV or New York real estate but becomes positively dangerous on a national and global stage, thrashing about like a hose spewing fire. As Will Saletan memorably put it, the GOP is a failed state and Trump is its warlord. […]

In any case, here we are. Trump’s convention is everything you could have predicted: a mix of bracing disorganization, provocation, aggression and lies. It is simply impossible to pick apart the incompetence from the transgressive behavior and pettiness. […]

This is Trump. His convention would be his presidency – entertaining and hilarious if he weren’t also a live wire against the fumy gasoline can set against our national home. It is quite literally a terrifying prospect. He’s quite likely to lose his quest for the presidency. But he might not. He’s that close to the unimaginable. And he’s brought almost an entire political party along with him. We will be blessed if we can escape this with no more harm.

Steve Benen (Maddow Blog)

… . There’s something rotten in Republican politics, and it’s contributing to the convention fiasco. This is a party lacking in leadership, substance, and ideas. Each of the individual errors this week help add up to a debacle, but what GOP officials need to recognize is the bankruptcy underpinning all of their many problems.

The nomination of a racist television personality to be president of the United State is a symptom of a larger crisis. Norm Ornstein and Thomas Mann explained this week that Trump’s rise in GOP politics is “the culmination of a proud political party’s steady descent into a deeply destructive and dysfunctional state.

Greg Sargent (Washington Post)
… . Trump wants the key takeaway from the whole convention — including his speech tonight — to be that people come to appreciate that he is very well liked, specifically, that he is already very well liked. Not that he hopes to spell out his and his party’s vision for America (if you can call it that) with new sweep and clarity. Not that he hopes to demonstrate that this vision is preferable to the opposition’s. Not that he hopes people who are undecided in this election, concerned about the country’s future, and choosing between those two competing visions will come away reassured and persuaded by his own.

David Corn (Mother Jones):

Trump’s convention has given voice to the most extremist portions of the right. It has sharpened the partisan divide. It has cast Clinton as a figure who cannot be allowed to take the White House—even if somehow she collects more votes (or the “rigged system” says she collects more votes). Trump has established a term sheet for this election that establishes an alarming dichotomy: If he wins, the process worked; if she wins, the game is corrupt and the results cannot be trusted. This is a perilous moment. There is talk of killing a presidential nominee and a foundation is being set for delegitimizing an election. And the convention is only halfway over.
E. J. Dionne (Washington Post, reprinted in Real Clear Politics):
The journey [i.e., the demonization of Hillary Clinton at the convention] into what once would have been written off as the land of the lunatic fringe explains how Trump has seized control of the GOP and forced traditional Republicans such as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan to bend to his will. Far from being an intermeddling alien force, Trump represents the true center of gravity in a party that has spent a quarter-century defining itself through extravagant shows of opposition first to the Clinton family and then to Barack Obama.
[…] Trumpism is an ideological wasteland where anger is the only point and winning is the only objective. Here in Cleveland, we have seen what the wasteland looks like.
These excerpts are only a taste of the collective disgust and fear aroused by the antics of The Donald and his RNC minions in Cleveland. All are worth reading in their entirety and all underline just how important the coming election is.

Roy Blunt cranks up the election year looney tunes

08 Friday Apr 2016

Posted by willykay in Uncategorized

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Bob Onder, Election 2016, Jason Kander, Merrick Garlaned, Roy Blunt, Sanctuary cities, undocumented immigrants

Remember that when asked if he would meet with President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland, GOP Senator Roy Blunt replied that he was too busy to do so? I can imagine that particular excuse didn’t go over too well with many Missourians since very few of us have the luxury of refusing to do our jobs because we’re “too busy” doing something else like attending fundraisers. I bet he’s heard plenty from constituents about that particular gaffe. Now, however, Blunt thinks he can turn the tables and make the “too busy” meme work for his reelection effort.

State Jason Kander is running for Blunt’s senate seat. Recently, Blunt has found a way to pander to rampant anti-immigration sentiment by attacking “sanctuary cities,” that is, cities that shelter and protect undocumented immigrants. For some reason he thinks that he can score points by calling on Kander to take a position on urban sanctuaries although there are no sanctuary cities in Missouri. Kander’s spokesperson, quite reasonably, responded that Kander “is focused on his job and hasn’t had an opportunity to review the legislation being debated in Washington.”

A Blunt proxy, the red-meat regurgitating state Sen. Bob Onder, stepped forward to do Blunt’s dirty work and immediately set up a Web page soliciting those frightened souls who are worried about sanctuary cities to put the heat on Kander:

Jason Kander’s campaign recently claimed he was too busy to take a position on the efforts to defund Sanctuary Cities, which protect thousands of violent illegal immigrants from deportation. There are too many American lives at risk to allow Jason Kander to hide from this issue. Tell Jason Kander to take a position on Sanctuary Cities today.  Sign the petition

Of course the “too busy” situations are not exactly equivalent. Reviewing proposed federal anti-immigrant legislation isn’t actually Kander’s job while vetting Supreme Court nominees is one of the most important parts of Senator Blunt’s job.

Nor is Kander evading the issue of immigration. He has indicated that he supports some parts of the President’s executive order although he objects to the use of an executive order to counter GOP inaction on the immigration issue. It’s highly likely that he has not, as his spokesperson indicated, reviewed the legislation that Blunt wants him to comment on – nor is it his job to do so – yet, at least. I’m not worried that he’s incapable of coming to an informed position and acting on it when he takes Blunt’s place in the Senate.

Nor, yet again, can one be blamed for wondering just what, besides fundraisers, has been keeping Senator Blunt so busy that he can’t do his constitutionally mandated job? One telling example: Blunt recently voiced his intention to fight new fiduciary rules that reqire investment advisors to put the interests of their clients before their own desire for lucrative commissions.

On the subject of raising funds, Could Blunt’s position on this issue have anything to do with the fact that during the period 2011-2016, he received a little over $970,000 dollars from PACs representing financial industries – and well over a million more dollars if contributions from individuals working in these industries were to be added in to the total. Seems pretty clear whose business keeps Senator Blunt’s calendar so full that he can’t do the part of his job that involves serving “the people.” It seems like it’s all just one big fundraiser for Blunt.

And what about Onder’s fear-mongering in Blunt’s name about “thousands of violent illegal immigrants” and “American lives at risk”? A recent article in USAtoday examined the various efforts to determine the risk of violence from undocumented immigrants and concluded that, “using the data we have, it seems impossible to responsibly claim that those immigrants are more likely to commit crimes than their American-born neighbors.” Evidence to the contrary almost always seems to be anecdotal

Blunt has learned Donald Trump’s lesson well. Immigration scares poorly informed white Americans who are more than willing to generalize from isolated incidents of immigrant criminal behavior. What this means, of course, is now that the election game is finally on, and Kander is proving to be more formidable than anyone thought he would be when he first declared, we should be prepared for more of the same type of inept looney tunes from the Blunt camp.

Claire and Jay do their best for Hillary

20 Wednesday Jan 2016

Posted by willykay in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

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Bernie Sanders, Claire McCaskill, Election 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jay Nixon, missouri

Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill wasted no time coming out for Hillary Clinton. Her alacrity  – she endorsed Clinton in June, declaring that “it’s important we start early” – suggested to some that she saw the  writing on the wall when it came to 2016 and she was sure that it spelled “Hillary.” Naturally, so the story goes, McCaskill had some work to do to make nice with the candidate she dissed in 2008 in favor of Barack Obama, hence the early endorsement.

Nor, now that she is committed, is McCaskill a slacker in Clinton’s tightening primary fight against Bernie Sanders. Yesterday she attacked him in the New York Times as an unelectable extremist, declaring that “the Republicans won’t touch him because they can’t wait to run an ad with a hammer and sickle.”

Missouri’s other prominent Democrat, Governor Jay Nixon, also added his two cents to the Times account:

“Here in the heartland, we like our politicians in the mainstream, and he is not — he’s a socialist,” said Gov. Jay Nixon of Missouri, who is term-limited and working to elect a Democratic successor. “He’s entitled to his positions, and it’s a big-tent party, but as far as having him at the top of the ticket, it would be a meltdown all the way down the ballot.”

Heartland! Save me from all the cliches. Of course Democrats maintain a big tent. If we didn’t, neither Nixon nor McCaskill would be welcome. That’s something that the Sanders’ insurgency is making very clear.

Nevertheless, there is some evidence that McCaskill and Nixon may be right about, what else, Republican perceptions. Prominent Republicans like Party Chairman Rince Pribus and Carl Rove have lately seemed to be boosting Sanders’ candidacy. Why? To answer that question Steve Benen cites Claire McCaskill’s last Senate race:

In the larger context, the idea of partisans taking steps to choose their own opponent is hardly unprecedented. Perhaps the best recent example was the 2012 U.S. Senate race in Missouri, when Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) carefully and methodically helped boost then-Rep. Todd Akin (R) in his primary race, confident she could beat him in a general election. (She was right; McCaskill won by over 15 points.)

In today’s Washington Post, Greg Sargent suggests that there may be some truth to the arguments coming from both the Sanders and Clinton camps. While noting that “head-to-head general election polling right now is meaningless,” he says of Sanders:

… the political science tells us that perceptions of moderation in a candidate — as opposed to perceptions that a candidate is outside the mainstream — actually can make a difference. So does the history (see Goldwater, Barry, and McGovern, George). To be clear, I’m not saying Sanders could not overcome perceptions as out of the mainstream, if such perceptions do currently exist. He might be able to do that. It’s possible such perceptions might not form at all. But it’s also very possible that Republicans could successfully paint Sanders as an ideological outlier, and that this could matter. It’s not crazy, illegitimate, or out of bounds to raise these concerns.

Sargent then proceeds to point out that Clinton is also vulnerable to arguments about electability:

… The Sanders camp points out that only he can motivate younger and newer voters, as evidenced by what we’re seeing in the Democratic primary. The question of whether Clinton can motivate those voters is a very serious concern, one that has been raised by veteran Democratic pollsters such as Stan Greenberg, and one that really does call into question whether Clinton will be able to win in November. Meanwhile, to my knowledge the Clinton camp has not meaningfully addressed the fair point that she made similar “electability” arguments against Barack Obama in 2008, which turned out (obviously) to be very wrong.

Add the on-going GOP efforts, aided and abetted by mainstream media, to paint Clinton as untrustworthy and “unlikeable,” and you may have a real argument.

But maybe the anti-Sanders contingent is right. Maybe the only thing that will save the election for the Democrats is the primacy of one of the really ridiculous Republican candidates. Who knows?  Elections are never certain, and while I understand the legitimate anxiety that prompts concerns about electability – the ugly GOP presidential line-up and the destructive nature of even the so-called moderates’ positions justify our worst fears –  that is not the criteria that should determine one’s choice of candidate.

All I know is that I’ll support either candidate with my whole heart when the primary is over. I also know that I’ll be glad to see the back of Jay Nixon though I’ll have to hold my nose and vote for the pseudo-Democratic candidate, Attorney General Chris Koster. Same goes for that inestimable centrist, Claire McCaskill, if she runs again – although I don’t think that the powers that be can guarantee her the gift of another Todd Akin.

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