14 Wednesday Nov 2018
Posted in media criticism, social media
On obvious predictions:
Michael Bersin @MBersin
And for the win (February 22, 2017)…Dave Weigel @daveweigel
Honestly the funniest 2018 result would be: Dems win the majority based on suburbs after reporters spend two years canvassing rural diners
The diner interviews will continue unabated for the next two decades, though the red “MAGA” hats will fade with time.
11 Sunday Nov 2018
Posted in Uncategorized
Cognitive dissonance. But then, that’s not really true because there is no exhibited discomfort.
In 2012 Claire McCaskill (D) won Johnson County, Missouri by around 7.5%. In 2018 she lost the county by a much larger margin, over 22%.
2018 election results, via the Johnson County, Missouri County Clerk/Election Authority:
SUMMARY REPORT Unofficial Results
Run Date:11/08/18 November 6, 2018
RUN TIME:12:19 PM General ElectionPRECINCTS COUNTED (OF 11) . . . . . 11
REGISTERED VOTERS – TOTAL . . . . . 32,281
BALLOTS CAST – TOTAL. . . . . . . 17,812
VOTER TURNOUT – TOTAL . . . . . . 55.18%U.S. SENATOR
(VOTE FOR) 1
Josh Hawley (REP). . . . . . . . 10,449 58.98%
Claire McCaskill (DEM) . . . . . . 6,468 36.51%
Japheth Campbell (LIB) . . . . . . 289 1.63%
Jo Crain (GRE). . . . . . . . . 87 .49%
Craig O’Dear (IND) . . . . . . . 407 2.30%
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 16 .09%
Total . . . . . . . . . 17,716
The 2012 U.S. Senate results, via the Missouri Secretary of State:
State of Missouri – General Election, November 06, 2012
Official Results
As announced by the Board of State Canvassers on December 05, 2012
[Johnson County]
U.S. Senator
11 of 11 Precincts ReportedClaire McCaskill Democratic 10,197 49.097%
Todd Akin Republican 8,613 41.470%
Jonathan Dine Libertarian 1,959 9.432%
Total Votes: 20,769
There ain’t that many Libertarians in Johnson County, Missouri, not then and not now.
Back to 2018:
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT NO. 1
(VOTE FOR) 1
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,089 58.10%
No. . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,277 41.90%
Total . . . . . . . . . 17,366
The voted overwhelmingly for ethics, campaign finance, lobbying, and redistricting reform. And yet, they voted for the people opposed to the initiative, including incumbents who they returned to the Missouri General Assembly.
And, on medical marijuana:
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT NO. 2
(VOTE FOR) 1
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,307 64.39%
No. . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,252 35.61%
Total . . . . . . . . . 17,559
They really liked that initiative. What gives?
The voted overwhelmingly to raise the minimum wage in Missouri:
PROPOSITION B
(VOTE FOR) 1
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,051 57.25%
No. . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,506 42.75%
Total . . . . . . . . . 17,557
Again, they voted for the republican U.S. Senate candidate opposed to the initiative, and the republican incumbents in the Missouri House, also opposed to the initiative, who they returned to the Missouri General Assembly.
In the August 2018 primary, Johnson County voters voted overwhelmingly against imposing the “right to get paid less” initiative on Missourians:
SUMMARY REPORT All Precincts Reporting 100%
Run Date:08/13/18 August 7, 2018
RUN TIME:02:06 PM Primary ElectionRight To Work Question
(VOTE FOR) 1
(WITH 11 OF 11 PRECINCTS COUNTED 100%)
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,294 34.85
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,157 65.15
Johnson County voters felt even more strongly about this than they did about approving medical marijuana in the November general election. And, yet again, the voted for the republican U.S. Senate candidate who supported the initiative, and the republican incumbents in the Missouri House, also who supported to the initiative, who they returned to the Missouri General Assembly.
Voters in other counties and across the state did the same thing.
What gives?
Previously:
What’s the matter with Saline County? (November 9, 2018)
10 Saturday Nov 2018
Posted in Resist, social media
Protesting Donald Trump (r) on the evening of November 8th, in the falling snow, at a demonstration with several hundred in attendance in front of the U.S. Courthouse in downtown Kansas City, Missouri:
“Россия” (Russia) – a variant of the Russian presidential flag – Kansas City, Missouri – November 8, 2018.
The flag of the United States is below it, in the configuration indicating distress.
This afternoon, via Twitter:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Trying to STEAL two big elections in Florida! We are watching closely!
1:09 PM – 10 Nov 2018
Yep, he’s a useful idiot.
Previously:
Back to the streets – Kansas City, Missouri – November 8, 2018 (November 8, 2019)
Dumber than a cinder block… (November 10, 2018)
10 Saturday Nov 2018
Posted in Resist, social media
…and twice as dense.
That’s you, too, if you buy into it.
Yesterday, via Twitter:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Just out — in Arizona, SIGNATURES DON’T MATCH. Electoral corruption – Call for a new Election? We must protect our Democracy!
2:33 PM – 9 Nov 2018
One of the responses:
Signatures not matching does not equal corruption or fraud. Everyone’s signature varies somewhat, and if one signature is on paper and the other is on a device, there can be a lot of variance, especially if the person doesn’t sign on devices often.
Read the sequence. This is all about counting the votes that have been cast in this election. For those of you who have difficulty with reading comprehension and facts (The Faux News Channel, for instance), read this slowly and out loud, that might help you understand it.
1. When voter turnout is higher than expected it takes longer to count the votes because of the volume of ballots which have to be processed.
2. States which have voting by mail have a very high volume. It takes a longer time to count and certify those results due to the very high volume.
3. News media does not count the votes, local election authorities do.
4. Media usually reports on the votes that have been counted, as long as their attention holds. They rarely report on the certified results.
5. Election races are “called” by the media when they believe that the outcome will not be changed by the ballots remaining which have yet to be counted. This is not a certified election result. It’s a bauble for people with short attention spans.
6. Elections are certified by election authorities when all of the votes have been counted.
7. Sometimes, when elections are really close, the media will not “call” the election until it has been certified. Sometimes media makes a mistake and “calls” the election anyway because math is hard for some people.
8. If, at any point, the number of ballots which have not been counted is greater than the reported margin between two candidates, then any media “call” of the race is worthless. That’s how math works.
Thus endeth the lesson.
09 Friday Nov 2018
Posted in Uncategorized
One of the cable news network talking head shows (or was it one of the old network talking head shows) mentioned the fact that in 2012 Claire McCaskill (D) won Saline County by close to twenty points and in 2018 she lost it by a similar margin.
The 2018 results via the Missouri Secretary of State:
State of Missouri – General Election, November 06, 2018
Unofficial ResultsU.S. Senator
14 of 14 Precincts ReportedJosh Hawley Republican 4,569 58.285%
Claire McCaskill Democratic 2,895 36.931%
Japheth Campbell Libertarian 128 1.633%
Jo Crain Green 57 0.727%
Craig O’Dear Independent 190 2.424%Total Votes: 7,839
And the initiative on ethics, campaign finance, lobbying, and redistricting reform:
Constitutional Amendment No. 1
14 of 14 Precincts ReportedYES 4,467 58.225%
NO 3,205 41.775%
Total Votes: 7,672
Which they overwhelmingly supported.
And the initiative on medical marijuana:
Constitutional Amendment No. 2
14 of 14 Precincts Reported
YES 4,864 62.479%
NO 2,921 37.521%
Total Votes: 7,785
Which they overwhelmingly supported, by an even larger margin. What’s with that?
And the initiative to raise the minimum wage in Missouri:
Proposition B
14 of 14 Precincts ReportedYES 4,361 56.843%
NO 3,311 43.157%
Total Votes: 7,672
Which they overwhelmingly supported.
And “Right to get paid less” was on the August primary ballot:
State of Missouri – Primary Election, August 07, 2018
Official Results
As announced by the Board of State Canvassers on August 27, 2018Proposition A
14 of 14 Precincts ReportedYES 1,362 33.721%
NO 2,677 66.279%
Total Votes: 4,039
Which they overwhelmingly rejected.
So, the good people of Saline County voted for the CLEAN Missouri initiative, for medical marijuana, for raising the minimum wage, and against imposing “right to get paid less”. And, they also voted for and elected the U.S. Senate candidate (and General Assembly candidates) who were opposed to initiatives they supported.
Voters in other counties and across the state did the same thing.
What gives?
08 Thursday Nov 2018
Posted in Missouri General Assembly, Missouri House
Tags
35th Legislative District, election, General Assembly, House, Jackson County, Keri Ingle, missouri
A Democrat wins running for an open seat in a legislative district which was previously held by a republican (Gary Cross – term limited out) who was a reliable vote for republican party ideology.
How is that done in a district held by a republican for eight years? Talk to voters. Listen. Knock on doors, a lot of doors. Talk to even more voters. Address their real concerns. Out work the opposition. Repeat. Get out the vote.
Keri Ingle (D) [2018 file photo]
It really worked. The results:
State of Missouri – General Election, November 06, 2018
Unofficial ResultsState Representative – District 35
20 of 20 Precincts ReportedTom Lovell Republican 8,005 46.862%
Keri Ingle Democratic 9,077 53.138%Total Votes: 17,082
Jackson [County]
Tom Lovell Republican 7,724
Keri Ingle Democratic 7,965Kansas City
Tom Lovell Republican 281
Keri Ingle Democratic 1,112
That’s how change happens. District by district.
Previously:
Keri Ingle (D) – 35th Legislative District – retail politics (August 19, 2018)
05 Monday Nov 2018
Posted in Claire McCaskill, US Senate
Tags
4th Congressional District, Claire McCaskill, election, GOTV, missouri, Renee Hoagenson, U.S. Senate
Vote.
Morning in west central Missouri.
In the news this morning:
NBC/Marist Poll – Missouri – October 30 – November 1, 2018:
Missouri Likely Voters
If November’s election for U.S. Senate in Missouri were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or already voted]:Claire McCaskill, the Democrat 50%
Josh Hawley, the Republican 47%
Other <1%
Undecided 3%[….]
…NBC News/Marist Poll Missouri Adults. Interviews conducted October 30th through November 1st, 2018, n=1016 MOE +/- 3.9 percentage points. Missouri Registered Voters: n=920 MOE +/- 4.1 percentage points. Missouri Likely Voters: n=600 MOE +/- 5.2 percentage points…
The sample of “likely voters” numbers 600. This sample includes 18-29 year old voters at 12%. The sample by party affiliation is 34% Democratic Party, 40% Republican, 25% Independent, 2% other.
so…
There’s an election in tomorrow. Do you have a voting plan? Where? When? And what you need?
Talk to your family, friends and neighbors. Get them to commit to voting. Drag them to the polls if you have to.
Vote.
04 Sunday Nov 2018
Posted in Claire McCaskill, US Senate
Tags
4th Congressional District, Claire McCaskill, election, field, GOTV, missouri, Renee Hoagenson, U.S. Senate
Vote.
Campaign volunteers are working the phones and going door to door.
The coordinated campaign field office in Warrensburg, Missouri.
In downtown Warrensburg early this evening a group of ministers and people from their congregations held a prayer vigil on the Johnson County courthouse lawn.
A prayer vigil.
A door to door canvasser’s street view of Fall colors:
Fall.
There’s an election in two days. Do you have a voting plan? Where? When? And what you need?
Talk to your family, friends and neighbors. Get them to commit to voting. Drag them to the polls if you have to.
Vote.
03 Saturday Nov 2018
Posted in Claire McCaskill, US Senate
Tags
Vote.
There’s an election in three days. Do you have a voting plan? Where? When? And what you need?
Talk to your family, friends and neighbors. Get them to commit to voting. Drag them to the polls if you have to.
Vote.
26 Friday Oct 2018
Posted in Claire McCaskill, US Senate
Tags
Claire McCaskill, election, GOTV, missouri, U.S. Senate, vote
Vote.
There’s an election in eleven days. Do you have a voting plan? Where? When? And what you need?
Talk to your family, friends and neighbors. Get them to commit to voting. Drag them to the polls if you have to.
Vote.