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Monthly Archives: September 2012

Todd Akin, Claire McCaskill and game theory

12 Wednesday Sep 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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Claire McCaskill, game theory, missouri, Todd Akin

Worth reading: Jonathan Chait on who’s playing whom and when in the Todd Akin/Claire McCaskill race.

The lede:

The most entertaining Senate race in the country is in Missouri. That is, if you like game theory. The entire campaign is taking place beneath the surface.

Seems McCaskill bluffed Missouri’s GOP voters to get the opponent of her dreams, Todd Akin; the GOP is bluffing Akin to force him out, while Akin’s holding his cards close to his chest. Chait’s opinion on the topic of who’s bluffing whom:

But Akin can see what game the GOP is playing. They want to push him out of the race, and their deadline to get him out is September 25. If he stays in the race until then, at that point they’ll be stuck with him. …

Todd Akin may be crazy, but he’s not stupid. Wait. Let me rephrase. He may be crazy and stupid, but he’s not unable to spot a bluff.

Fun for all – as long as we don’t end up with Senator Akin.

Image

Mitt’s Big Pitch

12 Wednesday Sep 2012

Tags

2012 Presidential Campaign Cartoons, 2012 Presidential Race, Cartoon of Mitt Romney, Cayman Islands, Mitt Romney, Offshore Bank Accounts, Swiss Bank Account, Tax Dodger, Tax Evasion, Tax Shelter

Posted by Michael Bersin | Filed under Uncategorized

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Campaign Finance: “…who will count the votes, and how”

11 Tuesday Sep 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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campaign finance, Jason Kander, missouri, Secretary of State, Shane Schoeller

So far this month, for the candidates for Secretary of State, at the Missouri Ethics Commission:

C071012 09/01/2012 KANDER FOR MISSOURI Gori, Julian & Associates, P.C. 156 N. Main St. Edwardsville IL 62025 8/30/2012 $10,000.00

C071012 09/01/2012 KANDER FOR MISSOURI Eastern Missouri Laborers’ Education and Benevolent Fund 3450 Hollenberg Drive Bridgeton MO 63044 8/31/2012 $6,000.00

C071012 09/03/2012 KANDER FOR MISSOURI Bruce Grench 404 Berkley Place Ct Olivette MO 63132 HDIS Executive 9/1/2012 $5,007.77

C071012 09/07/2012 KANDER FOR MISSOURI Western MO & KS Laborers’ District Council 1101 East 87th St., Suite 100 Kansas City MO 64131 9/7/2012 $6,000.00

[emphasis added]

C061132 09/11/2012 SCHOELLER FOR MISSOURI LUCAS CATTLE COMPANY RT 1 BOX 1200 CROSS TIMBERS MO 65634 9/11/2012 $10,000.00

C061132 09/11/2012 SCHOELLER FOR MISSOURI CNS CORPORATION 500 E 9TH ST KANSAS CITY MO 64106 9/11/2012 $10,000.00

[emphasis added]

And, of course, there are competing views about the prevalence of voter impersonation fraud in Missouri.

Previously:

Rep. Jason Kander (D) in Higginsville (January 10, 2012)

Rep. Shane Schoeller (r): reading comprehension isn’t a strong point (January 12, 2012)

Welcome to Rep. Shane Schoeller’s (r) world… (March 7, 2012)

Finally, documentation of voter impersonation fraud in Missouri. Zero. (August 12, 2012)

Campaign Finance: no country for poor men

11 Tuesday Sep 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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2012, campaign finance, Dave Spence, governor, Jay Nixon, missouri, Missouri Ethics Commission

Yesterday, at the Missouri Ethics Commission:

C001135 09/10/2012 JAY NIXON FOR MISSOURI Comprehensive Health Systems PO Box 468 Hannibal MO 63401 9/8/2012 $10,000.00

C111205 09/10/2012 SPENCE FOR GOVERNOR Steven Trulaske Sr 7700 Forsyth Blvd. Ste. 1220 St Louis MO 63105 True Manufacturing Executive 9/10/2012 $50,000.00

[emphasis added]

They’ll have all the money they want, more than they’ll need.

Eddie Haskell and Lumpy Rutherford go to Washington (and Jefferson City)

11 Tuesday Sep 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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Brian Nieves, Ed Martin, Eddie Haskell, Jim Lembke, Joe Walsh, John Danforth, Leave it to Beaver, Lumpy Rutherford, missouri, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Republican Party, Roy Blunt, Steve King

When I was about thirteen years old, I used to faithfully watch the TV series Leave it to Beaver. The series centered on a family, the Cleavers, who, according to Wikipedia, exemplified “the idealized suburban family of the mid-20th century.” I, however, watched because I thought Beaver’s big brother, Wally, was the cutest boy ever. My crush didn’t last too long, but I can still remember all the characters on the show. Which is why I had a real aha moment when Jonathan Bernstein noted the resemblance between a character on the show, Eddie Haskell, and GOP Veep candidate Paul Ryan. After some thought, it occurred to me that both Eddie and his sidekick on the show, Lumpy Rutherford, foils to the too-good-to-be true Cleaver boys, have a lot in common with many members of today’s Republican Party.

For those of you who are too young to have watched Leave it to Beaver, which aired between 1957 and 1963, this description of Eddie captures the critical points:

Eddie’s two trademarks are his unctuous politeness to adults and his weasly, sharp-tongued meanness to everybody else. He is a model white-collar delinquent, a creep who goads people into trouble rather than perpetrating the crime himself. He was a born shirker, not worker, and a strain on any parent, especially his own long-suffering mother and father, Agnes and George. […] but really, when it comes to Eddie, when you’ve said “creep,” you’ve said it all.

Just think of Ryan trotting his 78 year old Mother out before the old folks in Florida, talking up the need to keep Medicare safe from Obama, with nary a word about his plan to destroy the program in all but name. Or think about all his smarmy lies during the Republican convention. Pure Eddie. Missouri’s Roy Blunt also has his Eddie Haskell moments, kissing up to rich, corporate types, sidestepping the hard questions with GOP talking points and pious bromides, delivering a swift kick in the behind to those who have nothing he wants, while pretending, after years as a Washington socialite, that he’s still a down-home boy. Romney, himself, the etch-a-sketch king of mendacity, surely qualifies as the archetypal Eddie.

Clarence “Lumpy” Rutherford, the second Leave it to Beaver character that comes to mind, is an equally common type in the GOP. Lumpy has been described as follows:

… he is the first bully that the Cleaver boys must deal with. Pretty soon his true cowardly, lumbering self shows through, and they see him for a kind of harmless buffoon. As he continues to “swell up,” everybody gets a good laugh at Lumpy’s expense, but as long as he’s getting his three squares and a few snacks in-between and his father is not yelling at him to much, he’s a happy enough boob, sporting a silly sort of dodo’s grin. When things are going poorly, which is most of the time, he still whines for his “Daddy.

Although Lumpy happily carried out Eddie Haskell’s mean-minded schemes without a thought, he never really understood the goals of the underlying plan. He just wanted to hang with the guys and be accepted.

We’ve got lots of Lumpys here in Missouri. If Ed Martin were fictional, I’d have suspected that the author based his character on Lumpy. Jim Lembke? Maybe. Brian Nieves is perhaps a tad too angry, potentially violent and unstable, but otherwise he fits the criteria – although on second thought, he’s actually more like a Lumpy who thinks he’s an Eddie.

On the national scene, I’d suggest politicians like Joe Walsh, who thinks the way to answer Sandra Fluke’s critique of the GOP is to tell her to get a job, and Steve King. They’re both mean, not too bright, and more than willing to do the dirty work that comes their way. King actually tried to come to Todd Akin’s rescue until he figured out that the big guys weren’t heading in that direction and it was wiser to back off. Romney recently endorsed his re-election effort, declaring that “I want him as my partner in Washington!” Eddie and Lumpy, together again.

There are, of course, folks in the Republican Party who aren’t conniving or bullies, people more like the Cleaver boy’s parents. They’re conventional, kind, if a bit smug, not at all evil, but just somewhat blinkered when it comes to reality. For example, just like Wally and the Beaver’s dad who was always kind to the hapless Lumpy, elder GOP statesman John Danforth endorsed Ed Martin. While these folks seem to find the Eddie Haskells and Lumpy Rutherfords in their party distasteful, they are also mostly unwilling to risk the wrath of these new GOPers who have usurped the more genteel Republican party of yesteryear.      

Public Policy Polling in Ohio: refining the Crazification Factor

10 Monday Sep 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

2012, Bin Laden, Obama, Ohio, pollong, PPP, president, Romney

Via Mother Jones, Public Policy Polling (PPP) did a survey [pdf] of 1,072 likely voters in Ohio September 7th through the 9th, 2012. The margin of error is 3%.

Some evil genius came up with a question for the poll. The crosstabulations are very interesting.

Q15 Who do you think deserves more credit for the killing of Osama bin Laden: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Base [all]

Barack Obama – 63%

Mitt Romney – 6%

Not sure – 31%

Democrat

Barack Obama – 86%

Mitt Romney – 1%

Not sure – 13%

Republican

Barack Obama – 38%

Mitt Romney – 15%

Not sure – 47%

Independent/Other

Barack Obama – 64%

Mitt Romney – 1%

Not sure – 36%

[emphasis added]

That’s interesting. It’s curious that it’s not 27%.

Mitt Romney (r) and Paul Ryan (r): Six months ago I couldn’t spell mathematician, now I are one.

10 Monday Sep 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

2012, Obama/Biden 2012, president, Romney, Ryan, taxes

From Obama/Biden 2012:

[Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan won’t answer the most basic questions about their tax plan]

Mitt Romney (r): …Massachusetts.

David Gregory: Give me an example of a loophole that you will close.

Mitt Romney (r): Well, I can tell you that people at the high end, high income taxpayers are gonna have fewer deductions and exemptions.

Norah O’Donnell: The Tax Policy Center has done an analysis and they say there is no way to pay for the cuts that you’ve proposed without either increasing the deficit or raising taxes on the middle class, because you would have to get rid of deductions and loopholes that benefit the middle class in order to pay for those tax cuts that you’re proposing and that increase in defense spending.

Paul Ryan (r): So, the good news for us, Norah, is they didn’t even actually analyze the Romney plan. There are five other studies that have [crosstalk] one, what, what…    

Norah O’Donnell: Well there isn’t a Romney plan that’s been specific about [crosstalk] which deductions and loopholes he’s close, would close.

Paul Ryan (r): Right, so…

George Stephanopoulos: Uh, many say it’s in, it’s difficult to accept your word if you’re not gonna specify which tax loopholes you’re willing to close. Don’t voters have a right to know which loopholes you’re gonna go after?

Paul Ryan (r): So, Mitt Romney and I, based on our experience think the best way to do this is to show the framework, show the outlines to these plans, and then to work with Congress to do this. That’s how you get things done. The other thing, [crosstalk] George, is…

George Stephanopoulos: Isn’t that a secret plan? [crosstalk] Why…

Paul Ryan (r): We don’t [crosstalk]…

George Stephanopoulos: …not say right now [crosstalk] which loophole you’re willing to close?

Paul Ryan (r): Because we want to do this, we want to have this, George, because we want to have this debate in the public. We should do it out in the public view where the public can participate.

George Stephanopoulos: But that’s exactly what I’m suggesting, having it in public before the election so voters can have that information before the make up their minds.

George Will: But there is uncertainty surrounding the Romney Ryan tax cut plan because they have not specified the deductions that will be closed. And we know where the big money is, mortgage interest deductions, charitable deductions, taxing as compensation, which it is, employer provided health insurance, and state and local taxes. All of those you either hit all of the rich, in which case you don’t get much money, or you hit the middle class.

[The Romney/Ryan Plan: Not bold leadership, just bad math]

And we lose to these people?

Missouri’s Bridges: Another reason to send the GOP packing

09 Sunday Sep 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

deficient bridges, Deficit reduction, Economic Growth, jobs, missouri, The American Jobs Bill, toll bridges

During the Democratic convention President Obama noted that one of the ways that we need to invest in our future – while creating jobs in the process – would be to address our aging infrastructure. I think that he even mentioned bridges which ought to be a big deal for Missourians since we have hundreds of bridges that are disasters waiting to happen.

I invite you to take a look at this interactive map at SaveOurBridges.com. The little tags that spring up when you run the cursor over the map represent bridges that are both “structurally deficient” and “fracture critical.” To give you an idea of what this means, the I-35W Bridge in Minneapolis that collapsed a few years ago, killing 13 and injuring 145 people, had been determined to be structurally deficient and fracture critical. When you look at the map, you will notice that Missouri is almost obscured by the number of symbols indicating bridges in a similar state. There are so many deficient bridges that you have to keep zooming in closer and closer in order to make out specific problem bridges.  

Most of these decaying bridges carry fewer than 24,000 cars a day, but the traffic on two bridges in the St. Louis area and one in Kansas City average between 25,000 and 75,000 cars daily. I don’t know about you, but this sort of statistic makes me very nervous. According to Forbes

The sad state of America’s bridges is likely to make an already challenging fiscal future still more so.  It will cost an estimated $70.9 billion to address the current backlog of deficient bridges, according to FHWA’s 2009 statistics.  This estimate may prove wildly conservative.

While the size of this investment may seem massive, the political consequences of delay seems likely to be so substantial that one would suspect the Uncle Sam to pony up whatever funds were necessary.  Surprisingly, this does not appear to be happening at anywhere near the scale needed to avoid more catastrophes like the one that took place in Minnesota.

Unlike William Pentland, the Forbes contributor whom I quote above, I am not surprised at all by government inaction. Certainly since the cooperation adverse Tea Party Republicans who elbowed their way into the congress in 2010 have been banging the deficit-über-alles, our-way-or-the-highway drum, it seems as unlikely that we will address our infrastructure problems as it is that we will effectively deal with our employment problems – even though renewing and maintaining our aging bridges would go a long way toward meeting both needs.  

This is not to say that we won’t get some new bridges, although we may have to wait until there are a few more horrendous events like the Minneapolis bridge collapse. However, given the GOP reluctance to commit to using government to build and maintain infrastructure, it may be private investors who take up the slack – which will probably be just fine with the original crony capitalists. Get ready to say hello to toll bridges since politicians, both Democrats and Republicans, seem to lack either the clout or, often, the intestinal fortitude to take on the anti-tax, deficit cutting claque in order do the right thing. So it looks like we will end up paying over and over for the right to get from one place to another. Time Magazine‘s Barbara Kiviat summarizes some of the arguments against turning our national infrastructure over to private interests:

… Tolls often skyrocket under private owners, though with the blessing of elected officials, who avoid the political costs of raising tolls or taxes themselves. That’s how privatized roads deliver double-digit returns for investors and often lead to upgrades like electronic tolling. But there are other devils lurking in the details, like noncompete clauses that may prevent transportation agencies from building new roads, or the inability to use roads for economic development by, say, adding a new exit to attract businesses. Some officials get queasy about locking themselves into long leases; Colorado officials already regret offering a 99-year lease for the Northwest Parkway. …

It is likely that, no matter what, we will see a few more private-public partnerships to build new bridges in the future. We don’t need to totally surrender our national infrastructure to the big-money boys, however; there is another way.  The President’s jobs bill, The American Jobs Act (pdf), allocates $27 billion for transportation infrastructure programs, including bridge and highway repair.

We’d get new jobs and new bridges. What’s not to like? All we’ve got to do is say no to Romney/Ryan and vote the rest of the GOP bums out. And guess what? If we’re finally able to get the level of public infrastructure spending that we need to boost the economy, we’ll speed up the recovery overall, increase tax revenues and we will finally be in a real position to deal with deficit reduction in a sane, reality-cognizant fashion.

Claire McCaskill at UCM

09 Sunday Sep 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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2012, Claire McCaskill, missouri, Senate, Todd Akin

Video by Jerry Schmidt

Previously: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D): in Warrensburg at the University of Central Missouri – September 6, 2012 (September 6, 2012)

Eleven words

08 Saturday Sep 2012

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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2012, president

This election. This very election. Not the one in 2008. Not the last one. Not the ones coming up in 2014 or 2016.

At The Politics Blog (Charles P. Pierce’s place) via Balloon Juice.

“….We will win this election, or we will lose our future.”

Go. Read the whole thing.

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