SurveyUSA released a 1523 sample poll of “likely voters” in Missouri on May 19th which was in the field from May 16th through the 18th. The poll runs head to head match ups in the governor race between Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) and the two leading republican candidates. The margin of error is 2.5%.

That’s a very large (and very expensive) sample.

The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City and KSDK in St. Louis.

If the election for Governor were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were (names rotated) Republican Kenny Hulshof and Democrat Jay Nixon, who would you vote for? ?

All

Kenny Hulshof – 33%

Jay Nixon – 57%

Undecided – 10%

If the election for Governor were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were (names rotated) Republican Sarah Steelman and Democrat Jay Nixon, who would you vote for?

All

Sarah Steelman – 33%

Jay Nixon – 58%

Undecided – 8%

The crosstabulations by party identification are always interesting:

Party Affiliation

Democrats [45% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 7%

Jay Nixon – 87%

Undecided – 6%

Sarah Steelman – 8%

Jay Nixon – 88%

Undecided – 5%

republicans [30% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 74%

Jay Nixon – 18%

Undecided – 8%

Sarah Steelman – 66%

Jay Nixon – 25%

Undecided – 9%

Independents [19% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 33%

Jay Nixon – 50%

Undecided – 18%

Sarah Steelman – 40%

Jay Nixon – 45%

Undecided – 15%

Note that this survey has a very high percentage of self identified Democrats and a very low percentage of self identified Independents when compared to previous monthly releases from SurveyUSA:

SurveyUSA interviewed 2,050 Missouri adults 05/16/08 through 05/18/08. Of the adults, 1,857 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,523 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election….

Note that they used a “likely voter” screen as opposed to “registered voter”. A possible explanation for the difference in the distribution of the sample in party self identification, when compared to previous monthly releases, may be that Democrats are currently more motivated to participate (as indicated by their affirmative answer to being a “likely voter” this far out) in the election and Independents may not be so inclined to do so at this time. The republicans, as always, will vote come hell or high water.

Top Issues for Next President (Hulshof/Nixon and Steelman/Nixon numbers for “who would you vote for?” within each group)

Economy [50% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 30%

Jay Nixon – 60%

Undecided – 10%

Sarah Steelman – 29%

Jay Nixon – 63%

Undecided – 8%

Health Care [12% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 22%

Jay Nixon – 69%

Undecided – 9%

Sarah Steelman – 19%

Jay Nixon – 72%

Undecided – 9%

Iraq [11% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 21%

Jay Nixon – 72%

Undecided – 7%

Sarah Steelman – 31%

Jay Nixon – 63%

Undecided – 6%

Terrorism [7% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 69%

Jay Nixon – 19%

Undecided – 13%

Sarah Steelman – 61%

Jay Nixon – 29%

Undecided – 9%

Immigration [6% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 60%

Jay Nixon – 32%

Undecided – 9%

Sarah Steelman – 58%

Jay Nixon – 34%

Undecided – 9%

Social Security [4% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 40%

Jay Nixon – 55%

Undecided – 5%

Sarah Steelman – 29%

Jay Nixon – 61%

Undecided – 10%

Environment [3% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 9%

Jay Nixon – 72%

Undecided – 19%

Sarah Steelman – 25%

Jay Nixon – 68%

Undecided – 7%

Education [3% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 22%

Jay Nixon – 68%

Undecided – 10%

Sarah Steelman – 23%

Jay Nixon – 67%

Undecided – 10%

The republican candidates continue to hold their  “fear” base [Terrorism and Immigration]. “It’s the economy, stupid” – for everyone else.

Gender

Male [48% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 39%

Jay Nixon – 52%

Undecided – 9%

Sarah Steelman – 36%

Jay Nixon – 55%

Undecided – 9%

Female [52% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 28%

Jay Nixon – 61%

Undecided – 10%

Sarah Steelman – 30%

Jay Nixon – 62%

Undecided – 8%

Wow. Sarah Steelman has a reverse gender gap. It must be those “family values” television commercials.