• A SurveyUSA poll says it’s all over for Sarah Steelman. Hulshof is leading 45 to 33, with 15 percent of the voters still undecided. With the poll’s margin of error of 4.6 percent, it’s still mathematically possible for Steelman to pull this out of the fire. But she won’t.
• Political Fix has this:
  

  Missouri Republican Party spokeswoman Tina Hervey just sent out an e-mail calling on all Democrat candidates to clarify their positions on the 2nd Amendment and the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent ruling that struck down a Washington, D.C. handgun ban …

  With gas prices in the stratosphere, right up there with health care premiums, and with Missouri leaking jobs, does anybody still care about gun rights? There’s not a Democrat in the state quivering over the threat from that issue.

• Bond bloviating:
  

  U.S. Sen. Christopher “Kit” Bond pounced on Sen. Barack Obama’s remarks Wednesday when he said at a campaign stop in Springfield that Americans could save energy by getting their automobiles regular tune-ups and making sure that tires are inflated properly.

  “Rural Missouri is suffering a gas price crisis and the best thing Senator Obama can come up with is more hot air, this time for your tires, ” Bond, a Republican, said in a statement.

  Funny thing, I listened to that speech and the emphasis was on conservation (including higher fuel standards) and developing alternative energy. Not focusing on the big picture and the big solutions is so-o-o Republican.

• Kay Barnes, running against incumbent Sam Graves in the Sixth Congressional District, is moving up. She still trails, 48-44, but she’s bitten deep into his double digit lead:
  

  Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 10 weeks ago, Graves is flat, Barnes is up.

Todd Akin may feel safe enough to continue voting with Bush against the farm bill and the extension of unemployment insurance, but Republican congressmen who feel more vulnerable (say, for example, Sam Graves) are running to the left, hoping to put half a continent between themselves and their radioactive fuhrer.

Then there’s Kenny Hulshof, who does neither, does nothing. He’s MIA on those votes. So there, Sarah Steelman! Try pinning me down.

But she is trying, and it’s beautiful to see. She’s accusing him of being a D.C. insider. Her new ad nails him:

Narrator: A conservative group rates Congressman Hulshof’s big spending record in Washington “unfriendly to taxpayers.” He’s voted for 11,000 wasteful earmarks, including the “Bridge to Nowhere.” Conservative groups give him a failing grade on wasteful spending.

Now, Congressman Hulshof wants to take his wasteful spending record to the governor’s office.

The rest of Missouri’s Republican delegation came to Hulshof’s aid with this statement:

“It is disappointing that our fellow Republican, Sarah Steelman, would attack the good work of Missouri’s Republican representatives in Washington, D.C.  It is not helpful to take votes out of context, distort interest group ratings and cast aspersions on our motives at a time when we, along with Kenny Hulshof, are doing everything possible to thwart the extreme agendas of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.

“Here are the facts.  Kenny Hulshof has a 95% rating from the Americans for TaxReform, a 95% lifetime rating from the US Chamber of Commerce, a 94% rating from Eagle Forum and an 89% lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union.  Suggesting that Kenny Hulshof is anything but an effective and committed conservative leader is wrong, misleading and a disservice to voters.”

In other words: “Use some sense Sarah! You’re grabbing the party by the heel and pulling it under in a year when we’ve barely got our heads above the waves.”

You go, girl.

And she is. Unfazed by the censure of her party’s congressional delegation, she made the same accusation in a debate at the Lake of the Ozarks today and Hulshof shot back that she is ignorant of how bills are passed. He voted on the transportation bill, which included money for the Bridge to Nowhere. He didn’t have the choice of voting for the bill without that amendment (which, by the way, didn’t get funded in the end).

Often, the underdog is the first one to go negative, and Hulshof’s campaign is claiming that such is Steelman’s motive. He’s got Bluntco in his corner (Is that better or worse than being a buddy of Bush?) and lots of D.C. contributors. In fact, he has enough money for polls, and his poll shows him with a double digit lead: 39-26. I’m not much good at math, but that doesn’t add up to a hundred, does it? Apparently, 34 percent of the voters can’t decide between Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee. They’re both so far right. Or voters don’t know who either one of them is.

(Those of you who understand polling, enlighten me here. How does that question get phrased so that 65 percent of those polled pick one of these two winguts? Does it read something like: “If the Democrats decided not to run anyone in the governor’s race and somebody put a gun to your head and made you vote anyway, who would you go for: Hulshof or Steelman?”)

I’m almost giddy these days watching Republicans mill around like a herd of cattle trying to decide which direction the stampede should go: McCain is flip flopping like a Cirque du Soleil performer, the Missouri GOP is ripping itself to shreds over whether to support stem cell research, Republican state senators are balking at doing the latest bidding of Missouri Right to Life. And the contest between Hulshof and Steelman is going to get uglier–which in my book is beautiful.

And we don’t have to pinch ourselves. It’s no dream.

SurveyUSA released a 1523 sample poll of “likely voters” in Missouri on May 19th which was in the field from May 16th through the 18th. The poll runs head to head match ups in the governor race between Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) and the two leading republican candidates. The margin of error is 2.5%.

That’s a very large (and very expensive) sample.

The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City and KSDK in St. Louis.

If the election for Governor were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were (names rotated) Republican Kenny Hulshof and Democrat Jay Nixon, who would you vote for? ?

All

Kenny Hulshof – 33%

Jay Nixon – 57%

Undecided – 10%

If the election for Governor were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were (names rotated) Republican Sarah Steelman and Democrat Jay Nixon, who would you vote for?

All

Sarah Steelman – 33%

Jay Nixon – 58%

Undecided – 8%

The crosstabulations by party identification are always interesting:

Party Affiliation

Democrats [45% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 7%

Jay Nixon – 87%

Undecided – 6%

Sarah Steelman – 8%

Jay Nixon – 88%

Undecided – 5%

republicans [30% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 74%

Jay Nixon – 18%

Undecided – 8%

Sarah Steelman – 66%

Jay Nixon – 25%

Undecided – 9%

Independents [19% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 33%

Jay Nixon – 50%

Undecided – 18%

Sarah Steelman – 40%

Jay Nixon – 45%

Undecided – 15%

Note that this survey has a very high percentage of self identified Democrats and a very low percentage of self identified Independents when compared to previous monthly releases from SurveyUSA:

SurveyUSA interviewed 2,050 Missouri adults 05/16/08 through 05/18/08. Of the adults, 1,857 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,523 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election….

Note that they used a “likely voter” screen as opposed to “registered voter”. A possible explanation for the difference in the distribution of the sample in party self identification, when compared to previous monthly releases, may be that Democrats are currently more motivated to participate (as indicated by their affirmative answer to being a “likely voter” this far out) in the election and Independents may not be so inclined to do so at this time. The republicans, as always, will vote come hell or high water.

Top Issues for Next President (Hulshof/Nixon and Steelman/Nixon numbers for “who would you vote for?” within each group)

Economy [50% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 30%

Jay Nixon – 60%

Undecided – 10%

Sarah Steelman – 29%

Jay Nixon – 63%

Undecided – 8%

Health Care [12% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 22%

Jay Nixon – 69%

Undecided – 9%

Sarah Steelman – 19%

Jay Nixon – 72%

Undecided – 9%

Iraq [11% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 21%

Jay Nixon – 72%

Undecided – 7%

Sarah Steelman – 31%

Jay Nixon – 63%

Undecided – 6%

Terrorism [7% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 69%

Jay Nixon – 19%

Undecided – 13%

Sarah Steelman – 61%

Jay Nixon – 29%

Undecided – 9%

Immigration [6% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 60%

Jay Nixon – 32%

Undecided – 9%

Sarah Steelman – 58%

Jay Nixon – 34%

Undecided – 9%

Social Security [4% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 40%

Jay Nixon – 55%

Undecided – 5%

Sarah Steelman – 29%

Jay Nixon – 61%

Undecided – 10%

Environment [3% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 9%

Jay Nixon – 72%

Undecided – 19%

Sarah Steelman – 25%

Jay Nixon – 68%

Undecided – 7%

Education [3% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 22%

Jay Nixon – 68%

Undecided – 10%

Sarah Steelman – 23%

Jay Nixon – 67%

Undecided – 10%

The republican candidates continue to hold their  “fear” base [Terrorism and Immigration]. “It’s the economy, stupid” – for everyone else.

Gender

Male [48% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 39%

Jay Nixon – 52%

Undecided – 9%

Sarah Steelman – 36%

Jay Nixon – 55%

Undecided – 9%

Female [52% of sample]

Kenny Hulshof – 28%

Jay Nixon – 61%

Undecided – 10%

Sarah Steelman – 30%

Jay Nixon – 62%

Undecided – 8%

Wow. Sarah Steelman has a reverse gender gap. It must be those “family values” television commercials.