Joplin, Missouri (in red) in Jasper and Newton Counties. Image via Creative Commons License.

The presidential vote in Jasper and Newton Counties (including the City of Joplin) in 2012, via the Missouri Secretary of State:

JASPER [County]

President, Vice President (49 of 49 Precincts Reported)

Barack Obama, Joe Biden Democrat 12,808 28.3%

Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan Republican 31,345 69.3%

Gary Johnson, James P. Gray Libertarian 919 2.0%

Virgil Goode, Jim Clymer Constitution 141 0.3%

Total Votes 45,213

NEWTON [County]

President, Vice President (25 of 25 Precincts Reported)

Barack Obama, Joe Biden Democrat 6,425 25.6%

Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan Republican 18,179 72.5%

Gary Johnson, James P. Gray Libertarian 397 1.6%

Virgil Goode, Jim Clymer Constitution 79 0.3%

Total Votes 25,080

[emphasis added]

The gubernatorial vote in 2012:

JASPER [County]

Governor (49 of 49 Precincts Reported)

Jeremiah W. (Jay) Nixon Democrat 19,455 43.2%

David (Dave) Spence Republican 24,215 53.8%

Jim Higgins Libertarian 1,356 3.0%

Leonard Steinman Write-in 0 0.0%

Ronald E. Levy Write-in 0 0.0%

Total Votes 45,026

NEWTON [County]

Governor (25 of 25 Precincts Reported)

Jeremiah W. (Jay) Nixon Democrat 9,879 39.5%

David (Dave) Spence Republican 14,481 57.9%

Jim Higgins Libertarian 661 2.6%

Leonard Steinman Write-in 0 0.0%

Ronald E. Levy Write-in 0 0.0%

Total Votes 25,021

And in 2008?:

JASPER [County]

U.S. President And Vice President Precincts Reporting 46 of 46

John McCain, Sarah Palin REP 31,667 65.9%

Barack Obama, Joe Biden DEM 15,730 32.8%

Bob Barr, Wayne A. Root LIB 194 .4%

Chuck Baldwin, Darrell Castle CST 123 .3%

Ralph Nader, Matt Gonzalez IND 311 .6%

Cynthia McKinney, Rosa Clemente WI 0 .0%

Total Votes   48,025

NEWTON [County]

U.S. President And Vice President Precincts Reporting 25 of 25

John McCain, Sarah Palin REP 17,637 69.4%

Barack Obama, Joe Biden DEM 7,450 29.3%

Bob Barr, Wayne A. Root LIB 87 .3%

Chuck Baldwin, Darrell Castle CST 74 .3%

Ralph Nader, Matt Gonzalez IND 158 .6%

Cynthia McKinney, Rosa Clemente WI 0 .0%

Total Votes   25,406

[emphasis added]

The vote for Governor in 2008:

JASPER [County]

Governor Precincts Reporting 46 of 46

Hulshof, Kenny REP 27,764 58.6%

Nixon, Jeremiah W. (Jay) DEM 18,676 39.4%

Finkenstadt, Andrew W. LIB 507 1.1%

Thompson, Gregory E. CST 425 .9%

Brown, Sr., Theodis (Ted) WI 0 .0%

Serati, Mark WI2 0 .0%

Total Votes   47,372

NEWTON [County]

Governor Precincts Reporting 25 of 25

Hulshof, Kenny REP 15,570 61.9% % Yes Votes Graph

Nixon, Jeremiah W. (Jay) DEM 9,134 36.3%

Finkenstadt, Andrew W. LIB 246 1.0%

Thompson, Gregory E. CST 222 .9%

Brown, Sr., Theodis (Ted) WI 0 .0%

Serati, Mark WI2 0 .0%

Total Votes   25,172

President Obama in Joplin, Missouri on May 29, 2011.

Evidently, if you’re President of the United States visiting an area twice within the last year and a half will lose you votes. The numbers for Governor Jay Nixon did go up, but the overall percentages weren’t that great, either.

Previously:

President Obama in Joplin – May 21, 2012 – commencement speech (May 22, 2012)

Some thoughts on Joplin (June 2, 2011)

FEMA declares Eric Cantor a Disaster Area (May 31, 2011)

President Obama in Joplin – photos and remarks (May 29, 2011)

The GOP and Joplin: No compassion, only gamesmanship (May 25, 2011)

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) on the floor of the Senate: calling out Rep. Eric Cantor (r) (May 25, 2011)

Government is not the enemy (May 23, 2011)

Tomorrow we chose whether or not we want to return to politics of the gilded age or if we are committed to sustaining a democracy that makes middle class prosperity possible. A few thoughts from around and about on the nature of the choice:

Greg Sargent on the “post-truth” candidate:

If there is one constant to this campaign, it’s that Romney has startled many observers by operating from the basic premise that there is literally no set of boundaries he needs to follow when it comes to the veracity of his assertions, the transparency he provides about his fundraising and finances, and the specificity of his plans for the country. […]

But this goes well beyond Romney’s claims about Obama. It also concerns what he would do as president. Romney’s own campaign has proven unable to back up the promises in his 12 million jobs plan, even though it is the centerpiece of his governing agenda and his response to the most pressing problem facing the nation. …

Jonathan Cohn on President Obama’s record:

By any reasonable standard, no president since LBJ accomplished as much on domestic policy. And LBJ didn’t have to contend with the same political obstacles. The public wasn’t as skeptical of government. Conservatives didn’t have (quite) as much power to obstruct. Obama made plenty of mistakes, about policy and about tactics, but he also fought the good fight-and, more important, he did so when it was difficult. He didn’t let the auto industry die, even though the polls said it would be unpopular. He didn’t let Republicans roll him on food stamps on Medicaid, even though it would have helped him achieve an elusive spending deal. He didn’t drop health care reform-not in January, 2009, when advisers warned him it would be difficult; not in August, 2009, when the Tea Party protests exploded; and not in January, 2010, when Scott Brown’s election made enactment seem impossible.

Obama staked his political life on these gambits. With this election, progressives can help decide whether he made the right bet. And if they don’t? The damage to progressive causes could last a long time.

Nick Kristoff on Romney and the GOP war on women:

…  But whatever we call it, something real is going on here at home that would mark a major setback for American women – and the men who love them.

On these issues, Mitt Romney is no moderate. On the contrary, he is considerably more extreme than President George W. Bush was. …

Here’s the raw numbers from SurveyUSA, 10/28-11/3/2012, for KSDK-TV, KSHB-TV, KSPR-TV and KYTV-TV, 589 likely voters:

If the election for President were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

Mitt Romney (R) 50%

Barack Obama (D) 43%

Other 4%

Undecided 3%

Missouri will also elect a Governor. If the election for Governor were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Dave Spence? Democrat Jay Nixon? Or Libertarian Jim Higgins?

Dave Spence (R) 39%

Jay Nixon (D) 48%

Jim Higgins (L) 5%

Undecided 8%

Missouri will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for US Senate were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Todd Akin? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Or Libertarian Jonathan Dine?

Todd Akin (R) 36%

Claire McCaskill (D) 51%

Jonathan Dine (L) 8%

Undecided 5%

So let’s go into the details

The first detail worth noting is that on a survey with the sample of 38% Republicans and 31% Democrats, Claire McCaskill leads by 15 points. Yes, that is possible.

SurveyUSA finds McCaskill leading by 24% (55-31) with Independents. She wins 67% of Moderates and 20% of Conservatives (81% of the electorate). She wins 47% of landlines and 61% of non-landlines. SurveyUSA uses a system where “Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop or other electronic device”.

That landline number is 47-40 Claire. That’s important, compared to the landline-only Public Policy Polling results, where Claire leads 48-44. While the whole cellphone/landline debate hasn’t exactly produced any real consensus about the impact of being landline-only or being landline/cellphone/others. The SurveyUSA numbers move closer to the PPP numbers when you compare their numbers on the exact method uses to survey voters.

(for reference: SurveyUSA landline numbers for President were 55/40 Romney and Nixon 47/Spence 45)

Another difference between SurveyUSA and Public Policy is the partisan composition of their universes.

SurveyUSAs sample: 38R/31D/29I (as noted)

PPP’s (.pdf) sample: 36R/33D/32I

So Claire’s numbers are better on a +7R SurveyUSA than a +3R PPP? Yes, that’s possible.

Public Policy says that Claire and Akin are tied with Independents and that Akin wins 79% of Republicans, instead of the 67% that SurveyUSA put in the Akin column.

If you get wild and creative, you could combine the Public Policy sample, and SurveyUSA party numbers, then you get the following numbers:

President: Romney 48, Obama 46

Senator: Claire 54, Akin 35

Governor: Nixon 50, Spence 39

If you combine the SurveyUSA sample and Public Policy numbers, you get:

President: Romney 54, Obama 43

Senator: Claire 45, Akin 45

Governor: Nixon 50, Spence 46

So that sets up a fun little universe of possibilities if you mix your drinks. (Although the Romney v. Obama numbers from Mason-Dixon were the same as Blunt/Carnahan numbers (54/41). But that’s Mason-Dixon.)

If Claire McCaskill finishes ahead of Jay Nixon, the SurveyUSA method is going to be vindicated and/or we will have wound up in a world we didn’t expect to be in back on August 7th.

If she doesn’t do that well, then the universe continues undisturbed. Because it’s not like the varying success of non-landline methods has stopped Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov, and other online-friendly pollsters. Sometimes pollsters like SurveyUSA get a direct hit (McCain 48, Obama 48). Sometimes they miss slightly (Claire 51, Talent 42). Polling is sort of like a science.

The Presidential race in Missouri is pretty much two campaigns who only run ads in the parts of Missouri whose TV stations cover Iowa. But in all likelyhood, the better Obama does, the better the rest of the Democrats do in the election and the Missouri Democratic ticket probably runs slightly ahead of Obama.

In 2012, We live in a very surreal state. And in a few days, we’ll begin the process of forgetting Todd Akin, Dave Spence and Mitt Romney.

President Barack Obama in Cedar Rapids, Iowa – July 10, 2012.

Vote to make that happen.

Left overnight on the windshield of a vehicle parked in a driveway in a residential neighborhood in a small town in west central Missouri.

This is what passes these days for a republican presidential campaign GOTV operation in Missouri.

Hi Friend,

I just wanted to let you know that some knucklehead vandalized your car by slapping an Obama sticker on it. The last thing you want is to be driving around all day looking like an idiot.

Take care,

A Good Samaritan

Gee, it’s not even an original idea:

LETTER: Reply to supermarket note-leaver (July 10, 2012)

Right wingnuts are doing this all over the country.

This is why Mitt Romney (r) will lose the election.

Instead of knocking on doors and engaging voters directly, or working a phone bank, or doing a literature drop a whole bunch of people have spent time implementing this and placing it on vehicles.

Remind me now, who’s the fucking idiot?

A campaign button.

Take that, Bibi.

A new video from Obama/Biden 2012:

So why was Romney nicer to Bob Schieffer than he was to Candy Crowley? No talking over the moderator tonight, no efforts to steam-roll everyone in earshot? The worst we got was lots of wandering, seemingly pointless, but, I have to admit, very high-speed yammering.

Could Romney’s earlier behavior been been due to the fact that Crowley’s a woman?  In my past life in management, I encountered lots of men who consistently tried to talk over female colleagues, and Romney seems to be the type. It was great watching Crowley shoot him down.

But, but, you stammer, he was just as rude to Jim Lehrer, another white male. But, of course, Lehrer is a retired (hence, non-threatening) broadcaster from PBS which Romney’s supporters revile as the lair of the liberal media they fantasize about interminably. Wipe the floor with Lehrer, they all cheer.

Speculation aside, I’m guessing Romney’s gentle stammering and pleading glances were simply an awkward effort to steal himself some undecided or wavering voters, particularly women. There are some indications that the mutual aggression on display in the last debate wasn’t going over well with that particular group. Too bad most of us are just as turned off by would-be leaders who give the impression they’re cringing in the corner while daddy tells them to take a time out and promise not to ever, ever fib again.

“…Well, Governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets because the nature of our military has changed…”

The republican meme reared its stupid head again.

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): comparing apples to navel oranges (February 16, 2012)

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (r): still obsessed with those navel oranges (July 24, 2012)

Vice Presidential Debate: refighting WW I with Dreadnaughts (October 11, 2012)

[from a rush transcript]

Mitt Romney (r): Our Navy is smaller now than anytime since 1917. The Navy said they need 313 ships to carry out their mission. We are now down to 285. We are headed to the low 200’s if we go through a Sequestration that is unacceptable to me. I want to make sure we have the ships required by our Navy. Our Air Force is older and smaller than anytime since it was founded in 1947. We have changed for the first time since FDR. Since FDR we have always had the strategy of saying we can fight in two conflicts at once. Now we’re changing to one conflict. Look, this in my view is the highest responsibility of the President of the United States which is to maintain the safety of the American people, and I will not cut our military budget by a trillion dollars, which is the combination of the budget cuts the President has as well as the sequestration cuts. That in my view is making our future less certain and less secure.

American defense procurement policy by talking point for idiots.

President Obama’s response:

President Obama (D): ….It [sequestration] will not happen. The budget that we’re talking about is not reducing our military spending it’s maintaining it, but, eh, I think Governor Romney maybe, uh, hasn’t spent enough time looking at how our military works. You, you mention the Navy, for example, and that we have fewer ships than we did in nineteen sixteen.  Well, Governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets [audience noise] because the nature of our military has changed. We have these things called aircraft carriers where planes land on them [audience noise], we have these ships that go under water, nuclear submarines, and so the question is not, uh, a game of battleship where we’re counting ships, it’s, it’s what are our capabilities. And so when I sit down with the Secretary of the Navy and the Joint Chiefs of Staff we determine how are we going to be best able to meet all of our defense needs in a way that also keeps faith with our troops, that also makes sure that our veterans have, uh, the kind of support that they need when they come home, and that is not reflected in the kind of budget that you’re putting forward because it just doesn’t work. [Moderator: “All right.”] And, you know, we visited the web site quite a bit, and it still doesn’t work.

Bob Schieffer: A lot to cover. I’d like [audience noise], I’d like to move to the, uh, next segment. Red lines. Israel and Iran. Would either of you, and you’ll have two minutes….

We’ve been saying the same thing for months.

Madeleine Albright has a few observations on Mitt Romney and foreign policy. Suffice it to say it’s pretty brutal:

Keep this in mind when you watch tonight. Some other good prep:

Think Progress: “5 Facts To Commit To Memory Before Tonight’s Foreign Policy Debate.”

Ezra Klein’s Wonkblog: “Five facts you need to know about China’s currency manipulation.”

Kevin Drum at Mother Jones: “The Benghazi Controversy, Explained.”

And, finally, keep your fingers crossed. The consequences of a Romney “win” don’t bear thinking abut.